Quoting: pharrow
He was never all that strong defensively. He's an offensive defense man. You act like his game has changed. It hasn't. He's the guy you send out there to score, not to shut down a team. It's always been that way. Further more, that 8th goal was soft. That was the one he let in between the pads. That was clearly a goal he should have stopped and he didn't. Why on earth would you blame that solely on the defense man. At some point the goalie has to keep the pucks out the net too.
Monahan was standing right there too and there were no other blue jackets around. If Gaudreau doesn't score there Monahan will. And it's one thing to be an offensive defenseman whose offense offsets his defensive deficiencies. But he's literally not even doing that anymore. For every decent scoring chance he creates it feels like he gives up a higher danger or multiple chances the other way. The numbers reflect this as well.
48.46% Corsi, -28 Corsi +/-
48.01% Scoring Chances, -17 SC +/-
45.20% High Danger Corsi, -17 HDC +/-
*Information from Natural Stat Trick
*For context to the past, he was between 51-54% at all three categories in both the 2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons.
For Comparison, with all CBJ skaters > 110 mins played with werenski the painted picture isn't very good either. (110 mins is roughly the cutoff point between his most common players on the ice with him and decent sample size)
*To keep formatting sane, Werenski is labelled as 8 - In addition it would be
amazing if Capfriendly had a "Table" Feature for comments sections to present data in a clear format to make a sound argument
@Jarvis @Banks
Player / TOI With 8 / CF% Rel w/ 8 / 8 CF % REl W/o Player / Player CF % Rel w/o 8 / HDCF% Rel w/ 8 / 8 HDCF % REl W/o Player / Player HDCF % Rel w/o 8
Panarin / 163 / 2.63 / -2.95 / 3.60 / -11.13 / -4.52 / 6.21
Jenner / 122 / 2.44 / -1.89 / -0.67 / -1.75 / -6.84 / -2.30
Atkinson / 147 / -1.96 / -0.73 / -0.70 / -12.09 / -3.88 / 4.67
Savard / 144 / -5.2 / -0.01 / -2.02 / -4.10 / -6.30 / 1.98
Anderson / 115 / 7.28 / -2.86 / 3.85 / 2.96 / -7.92 / 3.43
Foligno / 124 / -5.09 / -0.09 / -1.39 / -19.78 / -1.44 / 0.74
Dubois / 155 / -0.25 / -1.33 / 1.02 / -11.52 / -4.37 / 6.36
Jones / 210 / 2.82 / -1.32 / 2.28 / -5.14 / -6.07 / 1.61
EDIT: this data also is from NST
In almost every case, the players when playing with Werenski are either decent or good based on pure Corsi, and are terrible in terms of HDCF with werenski and dramatically improve away from him. Even in the case of Josh Anderson where he has good HDCF numbers with him, Anderson improves away from Werenski and Werenski gets significantly worse away from Anderson.
Note: I personally am a big believer that High Danger Chances and scoring chances are a much better way to evaluate how well a team or player is performing compared to pure Corsi, thus I put more value in analyzing how a player fares in the Scoring Chance/ HDCF battle (hence my concerns and problems with ZW's play)
This is a long and detailed way of me saying that yes, his game has changed and that he needs to either see a significant ice time reduction or brief pressbox stint. His play is not to the level it needs to be and there are clearly visible issues with his game that have been present all season. By no means am I saying to trade or get rid of him. There's a lot of talent there. But both the numbers and eye test are *screaming* that his play is hurting the team so far this year.