What is happening right now? Why are all right handed defenceman worth 2 roster players and 2 first round picks? Parayko is a 30 point defenceman who plays behind a perennial all star. He's never been asked to carry a blue line and hasn't had too and yet people are asking for MASSIVE packages for the kid. I honestly hope that some team pays a price this large for Parayko, just not the Leafs. Why I say that is because it'll be a great cautionary tale. This price is double what he should bring in, the value for defenceman on here is insane. Please don't take this as a slight against the player, he is a very good player but the prices people are attaching to him rival what is should cost to obtain Doughty.

throw in your first born child and it MIGHT get done

Because Parayko is 4 years younger and significantly cheaper than Doughty. In the past two weeks, Parayko has held Mcdavid, Mack/Rantanen, and the Jets scoreless at even strength. His offense may have never came, but he moves the puck and shuts people down. The Blues won’t trade him unless it’s a vast overpay.

It's funny you see it that way because all I see is a cap dump, a 3rd liner, a meaningless prospect, and picks at the end of the first round. None of those things entices me enough to consider trading a core player.

Nylander must be included or st.louis walks. (NYR fan)

I won't get into Doughty and why I wouldn't trade for him either but if we are comparing the two, Doughty is a top 3 defenceman in the League, Parayko is anywhere between top 30 and top 50 depending on if you value offense or defensive play more. I do think he's a great player but these packages are just insane, way better players have been traded recently for way less. Hall for Larsson happened 2 years ago and now people are going way more overboard than that. If Larsson was to be traded today, he'd bring Nylander, 2 firsts and Johnsson, which is a bigger package than Hall. (Hall is the best player listed in my statement by a long shot, but Nylander, Johnsson and 2 1st definitely is better than Hall on his own.) If this is indeed the cost to acquire a defenceman, no defenceman will move, or a GM is going to make the worst trade in history in the near future.

Realistically...it's almost certainly an underpayment.

Some people hate Zaitsev...others like him....I think the Leafs would be just as happy to keep Zaitsev as they would be to move him and his contract...so let's just say he's neutral value and only inlcluded to offset salaries.
Bracco is a B prospect at best at this point
Brown is a 3rd line checking winger with some offensive upside

Neither of those three things are going to move the needle much...either for a team acquiring them or for the Leafs to give up

Then you have 2 first round picks....certainly not a small price to pay...but considering where the leafs are projected to be picking, are not assets the leafs should hold on to if it means being able to slot someone into the RHD spot beside Rielly on the top pairing.

Is Parayko a stud D-man right now? I wouldn't say he's elite, but he's more than capabale of 1st line minutes...he's young...on a great contract...and actually has been asked to carry the blueline since Pietrangelo went down with a hand injury. It's only been a few games but he's been getting about 25min/night...too small of a sample size to say anything for certain...but age/position/contract/skill make him an ideal fit for the leafs IMO.

I am glad you mentioned picks at the end of the 1st round. I was just thinking about this the other day because people are valuing TO's 1st rounders like they are 2nd round picks. They aren't they are 1st rounders and even late first rounders have often been really good players.

Justin Williams was drafted 28th overall in 2000
Dave Steckel played almost 500 games and was picked 30th in 2001
Corey Perry was drafted 28th
Mike Green 29th
Niskanen 28th

etc.

So is a late 1st round pick as worthless as people are making them sound? I don't think so, which is why I won't give them up unless its a smart deal.

For every guy you listed above I could list 2 or 3 guys picked in the same slot that you've never heard of. I'm not saying those picks are meaningless, but there is a lot of risk involved. Too much to, say, trade away an NHLer in his prime at a hard position to fill.

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-values-1.1119528

Picking 5 random late first round picks that turned out to be great NHL'ers proves that it's possible to select an impact player at this part of the draft..but they are more exceptions than rules:

Check out the table Scott Cullen posted here...shows you're much more likely to select a 4th line player or worse than you are to get a top 4 d or top 6 forward with picks once you get past the top 14. It covers the years 1990-2014...so a large sample size:

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-values-1.1119528

Obviously there's chances you can get an impact player with those picks...and in the cap world...a team needs as many chances to hit on having good players make their roster on entry level contracts...but it you're looking at adding a proven commodity that fits a major need of your team...the odds say you're better off with the proven talent

Enjoy your core....

A late 1st round pick is still a very high value asset.

John Carlsson for example has higher value than Parayko and he was drafted 28th overall. There are many really good players drafted in the late 1st round. There are more of them then 2nd round picks making an impact. I would never give up 2 first round picks unless I am getting a top end talent. Parayko is great but he isn't a top end talent. He'd still be the #2 in TO and likely on most other squads. The problem right now is the "perceived value" for defenceman is inflated beyond all reason. It's like there was a clerical error and the decimal place was moved over 1 space and now everything 100% more valuable than it should be.

As to your statements,

Zaitsev is definitely not close to the same level as Parayko, but he's still a not bad middle pair defenceman who is good in his own zone.
Brown is a very good guy to have on a team, he doesn't score much more than 15 goals while playing on the 3rd or 4th lines but if he is given more offensive linemates and more ice time, he's proven to be capable of scoring some important goals. Perhaps in the right scenario he could be a responsible top 6 winger. Not nearly as valuable as Parayko but when you combine that to Zaitsev, its not nothing.
Bracco is a B prospect and I am not sure when or even if he'll be a NHLer, but he's also impressed at a lot of big times over his career so he isn't without potential.

But when you ad 2 first rounders to the equation the value completely gets out of whack. A 1st rounder, even a late one is worth more than any of the other pieces TO is sending. Just 2 firsts for Parayko could be too much for my tastes. Not that Parayko isn't great but the Leafs have proven to be very good at drafting and two firsts could provide them with 2 players who could be cheap reinforcements for this squad down the line. That is how you build a winner, you draft smart, develop well and always have a pipeline of talent ready to come up and fill holes. For crying outloud, look at Sandin, he was picked 29th I believe and he looks like he may be a massive steal.

I guess the moral of the story is, a 1st round draft pick is still a 1st round pick, they are gold and shouldn't be tossed away for flashy "make the fans happy" moves.

Of course there is risk in drafting, but there is also skill and resources to help enhance development. Look at guys like Johnsson who was developed by TO, he is a 7th round pick and he's a highly touted younger player with big upside. Pierre Engval was another 7th round pick that looks like he'll be an NHLer in the coming years. If you get a great scouting department, prioritize the two things that aren't easy to coach (speed and skill), you can provide proper guidance and watch these players really thrive.

So with all that in mind, is it smart to sell 2 potential long term pieces, 2 roster players and a B prospect that still could develop into a full time player for Parayko? The chances of the trade being very bad for the Leafs are very high, the chances of the trade being really bad for St Louis are much smaller. They could walk away with a middle pair defenceman on a not bad contract (4.5 mill for a middle pair guy isn't that bad of a contract), a middle 6 winger (Brown) a talented RW playmaker (Bracco) and 2 other roster players if they draft well with the picks they get. That is a MASSIVE haul for 1 #2 defenceman. Of course that is a best case scenario for St Louis. And it wouldn't be known if it was that big of a win for another 5 years or so.

Best case for TO, is Parayko becomes a stud #1 and helps Rielly become the best defenceman in hockey and the Leafs win a couple of cups. That I think is hopeful thinking and is not at all guaranteed. What I think is more likely is TO is the winner in the short term but long term come out with a big hole in their system and will have cap issues in the future when they can't find quality young players who will be on ELC's to start their careers. I see the Risk being far greater for TO than St Louis.

Thanks Jamiepoo. Hope you enjoyed all of those years of terrible hockey it took just so you could land enough top-10 picks and a 1st overall to have a respectable hockey team. The Blues have had a pretty good team aside from this dumpster fire of a season, and had to build the team to make the playoffs every year to stay afloat financially. But by all means, rip on the Blues, there can't be anything I haven't heard before.

The team that's gets the best player in a trade wins the trade, Toronto wins this trade. Parayko would instantly become their top pair dman and they wouldn't have to give up an elite asset, they take that deal.

How many times has a proven player went to a different team and sucked. Who people play with and the system in which they play make a very big difference for players. True elite players make everyone around them better. Good players can be good in most scenarios but there are a tonne of players that need certain scenarios to be great. Look at Patrick Marleau on the Leafs this year, he's been his usual self when playing with Kadri but he just doesn't seem to be able to figure out how to play with Matthews and has looked lost when on his wing. Doesn't mean Marleau is losing his game, he just doesn't fit right with Matthews. Same thing happened to Ennis but Kapanen looks fantastic with Matthews.

Pacioretty was very good in Montreal and really struggled big time to start the season. Lucic was a 30 goal scorer in LA and went to a different system and is complete garbage. Would Parayko be an all star in TO? Or would be struggle within a fast paced system that is very different than what he's done in St Louis over the years?

There is massive risk in a move like this, and with how the Leafs will have to be very carefull with the money they spend, having young controllable assets is paramount. Do you really want to be Pittsburgh in 5 years? Their best prospect was Sprong who would have been so far down the depth chart even on the Marlies. To have a bright future, you need to plan for it and selling it for the now shouldn't be done unless your window is already closing.

They have a deep prospect pool at least. Perhaps a quick turnaround isn't that far out of the question for you guys. I think moving out some older slower players would be wise, but I don't think its all doom and gloom. Personally I really didn't like what they did in the off season, apart from O'Rielly, you picked up older and slower players for the most part. Perron, Bozak, Maroon etc.

In true masochistic fashion I'm going to the game tonight so I gotta run. But yes, my diagnosis for this awful season is that the GM tried to plug a bunch of holes without thinking about a big-picture/system/identity. So while we may have added the parts that we lacked last year, they don't fit together to make the whole thing work. At least we have a good group of prospects (ironically drafted at the end of the 1st round and beyond haha!)

Great conversation though my friend! Keep your head up, maybe someone will read your thoughts and they'll ask you to be the GM. That, hilariously, is an actual dream I had once. Introducing the new GM of the maple leafs, this cap friendly goofball LoganOllivier. LOL Have fun at the game boss!

Hate to break it to you but the blues have as many top 10 picks on their team and yeah it’s so great being a leafs fan because no o e ever rips on us. You’ll have to pardon me if I don’t shed any tears for you... dramatic much?

I’ve got nothing against the blues, thought you would have a better team this year.not gonna hate on a team rocking the same cup drought as the leafs.

traded for them. Petro 4th and EJ 1st overall. and that damn gold cart ruined it. that's it for top 10 picks since 1990.

sorry I was salty

Armstrong tried to play fantasy hockey lol. I like Bozak, but why the hell did he think Maroon and Perron would work?

Thats what I thought as from the beginning. I thought it was either going to work, or it was going to fail bad. I like the Blues so I was hoping for it working but in my heart I really thought it was going to be a disappointment.