Forums/Armchair-GM

Team of overrated players

Created by: MelonVK
Initial Creation Date: Dec 12, 2018
Published: Dec 12, 2018 at 9:46 am
Team: 2018-19 Custom Team
Team Explanation
These are a few players I constantly see in discussions of "one of the best at his position" when I don't think it's really close, or people that are often rated way above their pay- or play grade basically. I'll try to motivate them all, but if you feel like I don't or that I'm just flat out wrong, don't hesitate to comment! I'm also trying to be a bit humorous, if you find me boring and obnoxious that's cool too, but maybe not the point of discussion.

One last thing. Plenty of these players are still good, even first liners, I'm just trying to lower the hype around players that's not necessarily responsible for their own scoring or play.

Gabe Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen:
These are good players, very good players even. Rantanen is putting up points like no one and Landeskog is finally recognized for solid two-way play and purposeful physical presence.
The issue though is obvious and spelled Nathan MacKinnon. He's playing out of his mind and does everything for this line. Not only does he set up tap-ins and give away free assists by skating the puck into the opposing goal form his own end, but he also gains the zone at a stupid rate, allowing his linemates to look even better than they are. Rantanen isn't the #1 or #2 right wing, more so around #10. Landeskog isn't elite, but he's a solid 1st line left wing, around #20-25.

Sean Monahan is also very good, but I've seen him on team Canada rosters on here, and he shouldn't really be that close. He's maybe the best center on his team, but probably not. Gaudreau is the obvious factor here, who's almost putting Elias Lindholm on this list as well.

PLD is, again, good, but he's nowhere near the 1st line center he's made out to be. Panarin is doing one of the best jobs in the league of driving a line from the wing, and the fact that PLD hasn't managed to score on more of the points Panarin has put up is almost worrysome. He's still solid with a lot of upside, but his offensive production isn't self-made.

Bo Horvat could be an okay 2nd line center for a lot of teams, but a lot of his production is simply collected by playing a lot in all situations. The fact that he plays in all situations has also inflated his perception as a defensively skilled centerman, which isn't really true.

Ryan Johansen is another one who is good, but for playing with two of the leagues better wingers, and considering both what he was traded for and the value of his contract, he leaves a lot to desire.

More or less the same thing can be said about Schenn, who's luckily for Stl making a fair bit less than Ryan, as he's also a fair bit worse. Lots of people on this board seems to think trading for Schenn will fix your 2c or even 1c problems.
He's average to low end as a 2nd center, and wouldn't be near first center status if not for Tarasenko.

Wennberg has a very high level of play making ability. Wennberg also doesn't have much else going for him. With exceptional wingers Wennberg probably doesn't look out of place, but he has to find some other tool; like a threatening shot or exceptional two-way ability if he wants to be anything other than a good 3C with pp-upside. He should be nowhere near team Sweden but I still see that on this board.

Tom Wilson... Tom Wilson out of all players somehow gets a lot of credit for the Capitals cup win. Kuznetsov, Bäckström and Ovechkin were all huge. Ovi plays a physical game that Wilson could try to mimic instead of being a 5 mil guy on the rafters cause of his inability not to blindside hit people. He has the tools to be a good 2nd line winger and even more, but he's not using them constructively.

Speaking of players who's numbers are inflated from playing with Washingtons best players we have John Carlson. For some reason people think this guy is a top 10 or even top 5 defenseman. More like top 30, probably. What annoys me is John Klingberg is much better defensively and at large more responsible for his own immense offensive production, but I haven't seen him shoot up people's defensemen rankings, no those spots go to Carlson because... Cups I guess?

Karlsson doesn't drive his own line either, that's Marchessault, but his hype is also slowly dying as his 26% shooting from last seasons apparently wasn't stable - who knew?

Bjugstad is another guy playing with exceptional players in Florida. Barkov is probably a top 5 center and Trocheck is around #20, but Bjugstad is big and strong and can sorta skate and makes 4 mil. He also has center written as his position on Cap Friendly, so everyone wants him as their 3c and think he'll be a beast there.

Florida is also the home of Ekblad - the #1 draft pick who probably should have gone #7, but he signed a big contract after really only 1 good season, and everyone just assumes he's lived up to that. If you want a #2 defenseman you could just have signed Anton Strålman on a much more reasonable contract like Tampa did...

... Or trade P.K Subban for Shea Weber, who's like many on this list big and strong. He also shoots really hard, so that's cool if you want to run your offense from the blue line. *huh? what's that? Montreal is 26th in power play?*
Maybe not such a good idea after all...
Well, there must be something. I know, sometimes he just lights people up with big hits!
Aaaand sometimes he just gets walked cause he's slow. He's the 2nd best d-man on his team.

The second best goalie on the same team is... No okay, Carey Price is struggling to be league average at this point, but I think he'll bounce back a little. With that said, this downfall wasn't really that unexpected, and even at the time 10.5 mil was A LOT for Price... heh...
No, he's not a lock for the HHoF. Yes, Hank and Luongo are.

Oh, and regarding the forward group, I almost forgot Mittelstadt! It's funny cause it's almost like I'm watching a Sabres game.
Before this season people on here gave me crap for suggesting Pettersson was the Calder favorite. For you people... I don't want to be rude, but seriously use a proper sample size. Even worse players have had a showing in the world juniors and turned out to be nothing.

His teammate Ristolainen is like the Bo Horvat amongst defensemen. He's played on the first pair, so surely he must be a first pairing defenseman?

*spoiler*
he isn't
He's a good 2nd pairing guy with PP upside, and it's becoming more apparent by the minute that he has about a 3rd of Dahlin's hockey IQ.

Schultz is like Ristolainen but worse, and makes more money somehow.

Hanifin isn't bad. But he's not that good either. I've seen people put him at #4 in mock drafts of his year, and he's #4 for sure: among defensemen. He's not close to Werenski and has been surpassed by Chabot. Provorov is slightly more effective than him as well.

I don't hear much Quick-talk anymore. Maybe it's because the Kings are finally bad. But he's actually coming from a very good season last year, just like his defenseman Doughty. But since he gets cred for his play before that season, just like his defenseman Doughty, he gets a lifetime award, just like his defenseman Doughty.
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
20$79,500,000$108,208,571$0$4,200,000-$28,708,571
Left WingCenterRight Wing
COL
Landeskog, Gabriel
$5,571,429
LW
NTC
UFA - 3
CGY
Monahan, Sean
$6,375,000
C
UFA - 5
COL
Rantanen, Mikko
$894,167
RW
RFA - 1
CBJ
Dubois, Pierre-Luc
$894,166
C, LW
RFA - 2
VAN
Horvat, Bo
$5,500,000
C
UFA - 5
NSH
Johansen, Ryan
$8,000,000
C, RW
UFA - 7
STL
Schenn, Brayden
$5,125,000
C, LW
UFA - 2
CBJ
Wennberg, Alexander
$4,900,000
C
UFA - 5
WSH
Wilson, Tom
$5,166,666
RW
UFA - 6
VGK
Karlsson, William
$5,250,000
C
RFA - 1
BUF
Mittelstadt, Casey
$925,000
C
RFA - 2
FLA
Bjugstad, Nick
$4,100,000
C, RW
UFA - 3
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
BUF
Ristolainen, Rasmus
$5,400,000
RD
UFA - 4
WSH
Carlson, John
$8,000,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 8
MTL
Price, Carey
$10,500,000
G
NMC
UFA - 8
MTL
Weber, Shea
$7,857,143
RD
UFA - 8
FLA
Ekblad, Aaron
$7,500,000
RD
UFA - 7
LAK
Quick, Jonathan
$5,800,000
G
UFA - 5
CGY
Hanifin, Noah
$4,950,000
LD
UFA - 6
PIT
Schultz, Justin
$5,500,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 2

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Dec 12, 2018 at 10:12
#1
Joined: Feb 2018
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I like a few payers but a guy like rantanen has steadily improved and he can play. yes his line is crazy but idk if overated is something id say. no one says hes McDavid or Crosby but he is obviously elite talent. this seems more like a hate list.
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Dec 12, 2018 at 10:26
#2
Jacob Smells
Joined: Apr 2017
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Quoting: Jfstompers
I like a few payers but a guy like rantanen has steadily improved and he can play. yes his line is crazy but idk if overated is something id say. no one says hes McDavid or Crosby but he is obviously elite talent. this seems more like a hate list.


Almost all of these players have been getting better each year and most havent even hit their primes yet, calling them overrated is very premature. Sure some people may get carried away with thinking about what they might become once they hit their primes but most of these players havent even hit their ceilings yet in terms of potential so calling them overrated is very premature
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Dec 12, 2018 at 10:36
#3
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Quoting: JacobSmells
Almost all of these players have been getting better each year and most havent even hit their primes yet, calling them overrated is very premature. Sure some people may get carried away with thinking about what they might become once they hit their primes but most of these players havent even hit their ceilings yet in terms of potential so calling them overrated is very premature


Well I'm not saying Rantanen can't reach the heights of a top 5 winger in this league, but people on this board have trashed the idea of Kucherov being better than him, which is ridiculous at best. Rantanen is good, but the perception of Rantanen is slightly ahead of where he plays currently, in my opinion obviously. Like it's more so credit to MacKinnon than a knock on Rantanen necessarily.

But I don't think hitting your prime has anything to do with being overrated. Same goes for Ekblad, who could also be a great defenseman, it's just that he's currently a bit overpayed. People have the idea that he should make the team Canada roster over some guys when in reality he hasn't managed to beat out Yandle for the best d-man on his team yet. I'd say this type of overratedness, or overhyping, happens to young players a lot.
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Dec 12, 2018 at 10:47
#4
Joined: May 2015
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I think every single player that isn't a Montreal Canadien player is over rated....... Technically that is the same as what you are doing here......

Over-rating is opinion based 100%. Anyone with a voice can rate someone differently than anyone else based on any and all factors. So if you get any player that has at least one person thinking they are better than what you think they are, they're now over rated. See how this is a pointless argument?

Using the words over rated is itself, over rated.
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Dec 12, 2018 at 10:52
#5
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Yeah... this is bad. Lots of high value and skilled players here. Rantanen, Horvat, Ristolainen and Monahan are not "overrated". Although there is a pinch of overrated players here, it is quite bad.
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Dec 12, 2018 at 11:01
#6
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Quoting: F50marco
I think every single player that isn't a Montreal Canadien player is over rated....... Technically that is the same as what you are doing here......

Over-rating is opinion based 100%. Anyone with a voice can rate someone differently than anyone else based on any and all factors. So if you get any player that has at least one person thinking they are better than what you think they are, they're now over rated. See how this is a pointless argument?

Using the words over rated is itself, over rated.


I'm not arguing any of this. It's a senseless exercise. Just thought I'd have some fun with it
Dec 12, 2018 at 11:01
#7
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Quoting: iginla12
Yeah... this is bad. Lots of high value and skilled players here. Rantanen, Horvat, Ristolainen and Monahan are not "overrated". Although there is a pinch of overrated players here, it is quite bad.


Have you actually read what I've written?
Dec 12, 2018 at 11:04
#8
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Quoting: MelonVK
Have you actually read what I've written?


Noooo, I haven't read anything. I am just commenting without knowing the story. Pfft. Obviously I read it, and it does not make any sense. Quite a biased list. tears of joy
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Dec 12, 2018 at 11:04
#9
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You're saying John Carlson isn't as good on offense as Klingberg because Carlson plays with Ovechkin, as if Klingberg doesn't play with Seguin, who has more recently led the league in points, plus with Jamie Benn and a few other decent guys? Interesting.

I've been looking at some PK stats this week, trying to individualize players' goals against rates shorthanded, because I wonder whether the Caps need to upgrade a bit while Orpik is out. Yeah, yeah, I know. Orpik's old contract was too big. But he's still pretty good at playing defense, when healthy.

Klingberg's stars have given up 6 goals this year in the 35 minutes he's played shorthanded: a rate of 10 goals against per sixty. Carlson's Caps have given up 8 goals with him on the penalty kill, but spread out over 80 minutes, so Carlson's on a PK that gives up a respectable 6 goals per sixty when he's on it. That's four fewer goals against per sixty than Klingberg, this year.

Is that due to different teammates? Let's check: Dallas has played 151 minutes shorthanded this year. Washington has killed 182 minutes. Washington has given up 24 power play goals for a rate of 7.9 PPGA/60. Carlson makes them much better when he's on the ice. Dallas has given up just 12 power play goals for a fantastic rate of 5 power play goals against per sixty. Dallas, with or without Klingberg is, better on the PK than Washington with Carlson. Dallas with Klingberg, is worse than Washington, with or without Carlson. So at least this year, and maybe it's because he's been injured, Klingberg is nowhere near as good, defensively, as John Carlson.

I'd actually take Karl Alzner over Klingberg this year, on PK, for what it's worth. I'd certainly play Marc Methot more on the penalty kill, who has given up just one power play goal in 15 minutes shorthanded, for a fantastic rate of 4 PPGA/60, which is 6 better than Klingberg's. Why on earth is Klingberg third in SHTOI/GP on the Stars?

I checked his numbers from last year: Klingberg was a PK beast last year, with just 5 PPGA in 92 minutes, for a rate of 3 PPGA/60. Whatever part of him he injured this year, it is not all better. He's a third as good on the PK as he was last year, when he was actually better at it than Carlson.

Carlson does play top offensive pair minutes, but he earns those minutes by playing better on offense than a pair of Dimitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen, who each finished each of the last two years among the top 31 defensemen in even strength points. Carlson, playing mostly with defensive-minded guys like Orpik, Djoos, and Kempny, has outscred not only those two offensively gifted guys playing together, but last year, every other defenseman in the NHL, both in the regular season and in the playoffs.

He's above average defensively, as evidenced by being 4th among defensemen in plus/minus right now, and he's fantastic on offense, as evidenced by being 1st among defensemen in assists and 3rd in points (just one point behind two guys who have played two and three more games, respectively). Also, Carlson improves Washington's PK by 2 PPGA/60 thi s year. Klingberg last year improved Dallas' PK by just one PPGA/60, when he was healthy. So even though the total PK in Dallas ends up better, it's Klingberg who stands on the shoulders of giants there, not Carlson, who again, is mostly paired with above average defensive defensemen like Orpik and Kempny.

So, no. Carlson's not overrated by being listed as a top thirty defenseman. He's underrated if you don't put him in your top ten.
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Dec 12, 2018 at 11:34
#10
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Because this is an overrated list, I won't comment on the players from other teams, but as a Canucks fan I will speak for Horvat. He is playing on the second line more or less in a matchup role. So all the points that he gets are against top offensive lines that log big puck possession numbers, hence Horvat's 68.5 Thru%. Horvat gets a 38.7 oZS%, so he gets about 7 minutes of starting time in the offensive zone a night, and that's including his 3:25 PP time. So he plays fewer than 5 minutes a night starting in the offensive zone, and well over ten in the defensive zone. He's not elite defensively, but his role is to turn defense into offense, which he does quite effectively. He is also on pace to score 45 even strength points this year in a defensive matchup role. That's better than Marchessault, Zibanejad, and RNH; and similar to Stamkos, Seguin, and Pavelski. Those are not low end 2Cs. And who are Bo's line mates? Antoine Roussel and Jake Virtanen. Also, let's not forget that he's only 23. He still has room to improve, and hopefully he'll be able to get better line mates in the future and be the 70 point man that he has the potential to be. I'll give it to you that he's overrated defensively if you think he's a shutdown man, but he's not overrated offensively.
Dec 12, 2018 at 11:37
#11
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Quoting: Eli
You're saying John Carlson isn't as good on offense as Klingberg because Carlson plays with Ovechkin, as if Klingberg doesn't play with Seguin, who has more recently led the league in points, plus with Jamie Benn and a few other decent guys? Interesting.

I've been looking at some PK stats this week, trying to individualize players' goals against rates shorthanded, because I wonder whether the Caps need to upgrade a bit while Orpik is out. Yeah, yeah, I know. Orpik's old contract was too big. But he's still pretty good at playing defense, when healthy.

Klingberg's stars have given up 6 goals this year in the 35 minutes he's played shorthanded: a rate of 10 goals against per sixty. Carlson's Caps have given up 8 goals with him on the penalty kill, but spread out over 80 minutes, so Carlson's on a PK that gives up a respectable 6 goals per sixty when he's on it. That's four fewer goals against per sixty than Klingberg, this year.

Is that due to different teammates? Let's check: Dallas has played 151 minutes shorthanded this year. Washington has killed 182 minutes. Washington has given up 24 power play goals for a rate of 7.9 PPGA/60. Carlson makes them much better when he's on the ice. Dallas has given up just 12 power play goals for a fantastic rate of 5 power play goals against per sixty. Dallas, with or without Klingberg is, better on the PK than Washington with Carlson. Dallas with Klingberg, is worse than Washington, with or without Carlson. So at least this year, and maybe it's because he's been injured, Klingberg is nowhere near as good, defensively, as John Carlson.

I'd actually take Karl Alzner over Klingberg this year, on PK, for what it's worth. I'd certainly play Marc Methot more on the penalty kill, who has given up just one power play goal in 15 minutes shorthanded, for a fantastic rate of 4 PPGA/60, which is 6 better than Klingberg's. Why on earth is Klingberg third in SHTOI/GP on the Stars?

I checked his numbers from last year: Klingberg was a PK beast last year, with just 5 PPGA in 92 minutes, for a rate of 3 PPGA/60. Whatever part of him he injured this year, it is not all better. He's a third as good on the PK as he was last year, when he was actually better at it than Carlson.

Carlson does play top offensive pair minutes, but he earns those minutes by playing better on offense than a pair of Dimitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen, who each finished each of the last two years among the top 31 defensemen in even strength points. Carlson, playing mostly with defensive-minded guys like Orpik, Djoos, and Kempny, has outscred not only those two offensively gifted guys playing together, but last year, every other defenseman in the NHL, both in the regular season and in the playoffs.

He's above average defensively, as evidenced by being 4th among defensemen in plus/minus right now, and he's fantastic on offense, as evidenced by being 1st among defensemen in assists and 3rd in points (just one point behind two guys who have played two and three more games, respectively). Also, Carlson improves Washington's PK by 2 PPGA/60 thi s year. Klingberg last year improved Dallas' PK by just one PPGA/60, when he was healthy. So even though the total PK in Dallas ends up better, it's Klingberg who stands on the shoulders of giants there, not Carlson, who again, is mostly paired with above average defensive defensemen like Orpik and Kempny.

So, no. Carlson's not overrated by being listed as a top thirty defenseman. He's underrated if you don't put him in your top ten.


Here's the issue with only quoting pp and pk stats: Pietrangelo is all of a sudden one of the leagues worst defensemen. You know as well as I that 6 goals can happen in a span of a period, that's why a sample size of this season on the PK makes very little sense isolated. Plus minus is a trash stat. I don't think Carlson is overrated on a top 30, I think he belongs there, probably around 25. I think he's overrated inside a top 10.


Now say what you will for the individual players on the first line, but Washington has had not only a better team, but better partners for Carlson than Klingberg has had the last few years. Esa Lindell could probably belong on the overrated list as well.

Since 16/17:
5on5 stats
Carlson: CF% 49.68, rel CF 0.14. Rel GF -0.05, rel x+-: -8.87, expected goals for %: 48.25, relative xGf: -0.29. CF (quality of teammates): 49.25, PDO of 102.28
Klingberg: CF% 51.2, rel CF 1.92. Rel GF 10.03, rel x+-: 15.37, expected goals for %: 52.81, relative xGf: 2.89. CF (quality of teammates): 48.81 PDO of 101.7

So no, the Washington Capitals are about equal or worse in most categories with Carlson on the ice. The Dallas Stars are massively better with Klingberg on the ice. The indication is also that Carlson is lucky since his expected numbers are generally worse.

Now I will say Carlson performed better on this data than I expected, but he's still a massive reliability defensively and generally further from the absolute elite company Klingberg is in in most categories

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Dec 12, 2018 at 11:44
#12
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Quoting: NucksFanForLife
Because this is an overrated list, I won't comment on the players from other teams, but as a Canucks fan I will speak for Horvat. He is playing on the second line more or less in a matchup role. So all the points that he gets are against top offensive lines that log big puck possession numbers, hence Horvat's 68.5 Thru%. Horvat gets a 38.7 oZS%, so he gets about 7 minutes of starting time in the offensive zone a night, and that's including his 3:25 PP time. So he plays fewer than 5 minutes a night starting in the offensive zone, and well over ten in the defensive zone. He's not elite defensively, but his role is to turn defense into offense, which he does quite effectively. He is also on pace to score 45 even strength points this year in a defensive matchup role. That's better than Marchessault, Zibanejad, and RNH; and similar to Stamkos, Seguin, and Pavelski. Those are not low end 2Cs. And who are Bo's line mates? Antoine Roussel and Jake Virtanen. Also, let's not forget that he's only 23. He still has room to improve, and hopefully he'll be able to get better line mates in the future and be the 70 point man that he has the potential to be. I'll give it to you that he's overrated defensively if you think he's a shutdown man, but he's not overrated offensively.


Yeah I don't think Bo's a bad player, but he's been labeled a shut down center just because of the things you've mentioned and his ability to take face offs. His team still gets outscored and outshot with him on the ice. He does however have a good offensive ability and is good on the counter attack. He's not bad, it's just that when people make him out to be almost a 1st line center with high defensive ability that isn't necessarily true. He's like an ok #2 but that's thanks to his offense. I'd slap a picture of him compared to Zibanejad (who's probably underrated) here if I wasn't spamming imgur too hard currently!
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Dec 12, 2018 at 11:27
#13
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Quoting: MelonVK
Yeah I don't think Bo's a bad player, but he's been labeled a shut down center just because of the things you've mentioned and his ability to take face offs. His team still gets outscored and outshot with him on the ice. He does however have a good offensive ability and is good on the counter attack. He's not bad, it's just that when people make him out to be almost a 1st line center with high defensive ability that isn't necessarily true. He's like an ok #2 but that's thanks to his offense. I'd slap a picture of him compared to Zibanejad (who's probably underrated) here if I wasn't spamming imgur too hard currently!


I’m putting him as an above average 2C because of his line mates. Zibanejad is as good, if not better, and he’s also an above average 2C playing in a top line role. But he has far superior line mates. Because of his age too, I’d put him above most 2Cs in the league. Here’s a list of the 2Cs in the league that he’s better than. Henrique, Galchenyuk, Berglund, J Staal, Strome/Anisimov, Soderberg, Spezza, Carter, E Staal, Zajac, White, Little, Wennberg/Jenner, Athanasiou, Danault, Nelson, and honestly at this point I’m taking him over Patrick. And that’s 16 centers excluding Patrick. And he’s still 23. He could surpass Krejci, Backlund, Turris, Hayes, Schenn, and Stastny to become a top ten 2C. Not yet, but we’ll see where he is in 5 years.
Dec 13, 2018 at 12:26
#14
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Quoting: NucksFanForLife
I’m putting him as an above average 2C because of his line mates. Zibanejad is as good, if not better, and he’s also an above average 2C playing in a top line role. But he has far superior line mates. Because of his age too, I’d put him above most 2Cs in the league. Here’s a list of the 2Cs in the league that he’s better than. Henrique, Galchenyuk, Berglund, J Staal, Strome/Anisimov, Soderberg, Spezza, Carter, E Staal, Zajac, White, Little, Wennberg/Jenner, Athanasiou, Danault, Nelson, and honestly at this point I’m taking him over Patrick. And that’s 16 centers excluding Patrick. And he’s still 23. He could surpass Krejci, Backlund, Turris, Hayes, Schenn, and Stastny to become a top ten 2C. Not yet, but we’ll see where he is in 5 years.


I think Zibanejad is sniffing around the bottom of 1c territory. I think Backlund is one of the most underrated centers in the game and is closer to top 20 than being a 2nd center IMO, same with Krejci. Eric had a bounceback and is looking like a proper 1c again, and Jordan is actually great defensively, Hayes is looking more and more like one of the better 2c's in the game as well.

Here's Horvat v Turris, where the latter one is a pretty good comparable that's still a bit ahead. I think over time Pettersson will be the clearly better shutdown center of the 2 in Vancouver though, he's already looking mighty good with that stick, even defensively, and he's only getting better positionally. But back to the point I think Horvat is projecting to be about the same player over a career as Kyle Turris, who's also seen better seasons at this point. Zibanejad is a fair bit ahead of that, especially defensively and in terms of his own shooting, but they're all good passers. I just think sometimes people look at Horvat and think Couturier or a player along those lines, and that's not very accurate IMO, I think a better comparable is someone like Turris. His game is more offensively tilted and he might look better defensively if they start letting Elias handle some of the tougher competition in the D-zone too. Also, if you want to hear about another canuck just missing one of my lists, Edler belongs be in a discussion of underrated players. He's currently better than Shea Weber for my money, even though I have him a bit below most. So borderline #1 defenseman on old Alex, how about that? Should give you a 1st rounder and a prospects if teams are reasonable and you're out of the playoffs this year, but I guess reputation is reputation...

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Dec 13, 2018 at 1:23
#15
Joined: May 2018
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Quoting: MelonVK
I think Zibanejad is sniffing around the bottom of 1c territory. I think Backlund is one of the most underrated centers in the game and is closer to top 20 than being a 2nd center IMO, same with Krejci. Eric had a bounceback and is looking like a proper 1c again, and Jordan is actually great defensively, Hayes is looking more and more like one of the better 2c's in the game as well.

Here's Horvat v Turris, where the latter one is a pretty good comparable that's still a bit ahead. I think over time Pettersson will be the clearly better shutdown center of the 2 in Vancouver though, he's already looking mighty good with that stick, even defensively, and he's only getting better positionally. But back to the point I think Horvat is projecting to be about the same player over a career as Kyle Turris, who's also seen better seasons at this point. Zibanejad is a fair bit ahead of that, especially defensively and in terms of his own shooting, but they're all good passers. I just think sometimes people look at Horvat and think Couturier or a player along those lines, and that's not very accurate IMO, I think a better comparable is someone like Turris. His game is more offensively tilted and he might look better defensively if they start letting Elias handle some of the tougher competition in the D-zone too. Also, if you want to hear about another canuck just missing one of my lists, Edler belongs be in a discussion of underrated players. He's currently better than Shea Weber for my money, even though I have him a bit below most. So borderline #1 defenseman on old Alex, how about that? Should give you a 1st rounder and a prospects if teams are reasonable and you're out of the playoffs this year, but I guess reputation is reputation...

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The only problem I have in that diagram is that Turris was 25-29, and Horvat was 19-23. A rather big difference. Horvat's breakout year this season wouldn't even crack the 25-29 seasons of Turris. Meaning the current version of Horvat isn't even a full sample of what the first year of that bracket will look like. Backlund isn't good enough offensively to be a 1C though he's elite defensively. 1Cs are solid defensive elite offensive players. Take Turris's or Zibanejad's 19-23 seasons. Horvat is about where Zibanejad was (his first year as a Ranger) a bit ahead offensively, a bit behind defensively, and a year or two ahead of Turris (his first "full" season as a Senator in '12-13). To prove this, check out Horvat's last year's stats on that website against Zibanejad's and Turris's best seasons and you'll find that they are similar. And Horvat is two years younger than Zibanejad. Horvat is still developing. He has the potential to be a high end 2C.
Dec 13, 2018 at 2:07
#16
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Quoting: NucksFanForLife
The only problem I have in that diagram is that Turris was 25-29, and Horvat was 19-23. A rather big difference. Horvat's breakout year this season wouldn't even crack the 25-29 seasons of Turris. Meaning the current version of Horvat isn't even a full sample of what the first year of that bracket will look like. Backlund isn't good enough offensively to be a 1C though he's elite defensively. 1Cs are solid defensive elite offensive players. Take Turris's or Zibanejad's 19-23 seasons. Horvat is about where Zibanejad was (his first year as a Ranger) a bit ahead offensively, a bit behind defensively, and a year or two ahead of Turris (his first "full" season as a Senator in '12-13). To prove this, check out Horvat's last year's stats on that website against Zibanejad's and Turris's best seasons and you'll find that they are similar. And Horvat is two years younger than Zibanejad. Horvat is still developing. He has the potential to be a high end 2C.


Sure, I'm not putting any limits on Horvat's eventual ability. What I will argue though is that a 1st line or elite player has stats in the 90th or preferably 95th percentile. Out of the ones listed here Horvat peaks at 83 for shots from passes across the slot out of all things, Backlund appears in the 90's 6 times for his passing, he's elite in both that and defense. Zib appears twice for his shot and once for passing, but he's only under 80 in 4 categories which speaks of a really well balanced player with and elite one-timer. The best players in the league are centers, so it's a tough list to crack regardless. I find Athanasiou a pretty close comparable though, he's even weaker defensively with a slightly more dynamic offense than Bo, but worse passer etc
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