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Forums/Armchair-GM

Marner wont make 8 figures

Created by: Goulet
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Dec. 13, 2018
Published: Dec. 13, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Only a dozen or so wingers make 7M or more (cap hit) and only 1, Kane, makes over 10M.
Marner is a great playmaker but he isn't Kane, and he hasn't won anything as of yet. Pastrnak, Nylander, and maybe Gaudreau is the best comparable. 9.25% of the cap is what he got, Nylander 8.8%, Pastrnak 8.89%.

Some may point to Draisaitl but at 11.33% he is a little overpaid.

Marner on a 6 year deal at 9.25% has him at 7,677,500 on a cap of the projected 83M. Given his production, this is a very realistic number for him, less on a 4 or 5 year deal, and again, realistically, the Leafs can't afford 8 year terms for Marner or Matthews without taking a step in the wrong direction as a team.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
6$7,677,500
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
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2021
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
13$83,000,000$58,403,199$0$0$24,596,801
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$700,000$700,000
LW, C
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$11,000,000$11,000,000
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$2,250,000$2,250,000
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$4,500,000$4,500,000
C
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$6,962,366$6,962,366
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$675,000$675,000
C
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$2,100,000$2,100,000
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Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$5,000,000$5,000,000
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$5,300,000$5,300,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1

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Dec. 13, 2018 at 1:55 p.m.
#1
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If the Leafs won’t, I’m sure Marner knows that a team like Nashville could
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Dec. 13, 2018 at 1:56 p.m.
#2
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Quoting: linehan10
If the Leafs won’t, I’m sure Marner knows that a team like Nashville could


Perhaps. But Marner is a hometown boy. He isn't going anywhere.
Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:00 p.m.
#3
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Marner will be dependant on Matthews. If Auston makes 15%, Mitch will likely get ~10%. They aren’t going to pay one without paying the other.

On a 6 year contract sure, but if they want to lock him up 8 years, you’re probably looking at exceeding 8 million.
Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:04 p.m.
#4
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With bridge deals for stars exiting ELCs coming to an end and the cap going up the comparables dont really work.

I dont think Marner gets 10 million, but if he puts up 100 points?
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Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:05 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: Goulet
Perhaps. But Marner is a hometown boy. He isn't going anywhere.


That's not how anything works
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Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:05 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: MT_11
Marner will be dependant on Matthews. If Auston makes 15%, Mitch will likely get ~10%. They aren’t going to pay one without paying the other.

On a 6 year contract sure, but if they want to lock him up 8 years, you’re probably looking at exceeding 8 million.


They can't afford those numbers. Stamkos at 11.6% is a comp for Matthews but no contender can afford 15% and Matthews isn't worth it.
Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:06 p.m.
#7
Bcarlo25
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You’re absolutely dreaming....dreaming. His market value is 10.5, he’ll probably take 9.5-10 to be a nice guy but in the 7s is why people hate leaf fans
Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:06 p.m.
#8
Bcarlo25
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Quoting: Goulet
They can't afford those numbers. Stamkos at 11.6% is a comp for Matthews but no contender can afford 15% and Matthews isn't worth it.


What? Stamkos compared to Matthews? Excuse me?
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Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:08 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld
With bridge deals for stars exiting ELCs coming to an end and the cap going up the comparables dont really work.

I dont think Marner gets 10 million, but if he puts up 100 points?


His points per game is still around Gaudreau. And you have to consider the Tavares affect as well.
Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld
That's not how anything works


It does and it did. You saw Tavares tweet right? Players want to win and there is no better market right now.
Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:10 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: Goulet
His points per game is still around Gaudreau. And you have to consider the Tavares affect as well.

It does and it did. You saw Tavares tweet right? Players want to win and there is no better market right now.


players also want to make money! no better market to win??? wpg will win the cup before toronto does. nashville can win before toronto. tell me would a player choose the state of florida to play hockey or toronto??? not everyone wants to play in thier home town. the amount of pressure is insane. some guys love, most hate it.
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Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:10 p.m.
#11
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Marner is like Kane minus the cups.

He's on pace for 130 points??? and you're saying he's a 7.6 M guy?
Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:10 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: Bcarlo25
You’re absolutely dreaming....dreaming. His market value is 10.5, he’ll probably take 9.5-10 to be a nice guy but in the 7s is why people hate leaf fans


At some point you should consider backing up your baseless opinions because your narrative is getting old.
Quoting: Bcarlo25
What? Stamkos compared to Matthews? Excuse me?


Stamkos outscored Matthews on his ELC and at one time was the same type of pure scorer. Then injuries began to take their toll. Sound familiar?
Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:11 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: Bcarlo25
You’re absolutely dreaming....dreaming. His market value is 10.5, he’ll probably take 9.5-10 to be a nice guy but in the 7s is why people hate leaf fans


RT. they say he's a top 5 player in the league, but when it comes to contract talks, he's not better then gaudreau. i rmr just 2 weeks ago ppl were like oh he's the next patrick kane. stfu
Thatguy just proved it with his post above
Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:13 p.m.
#14
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I agree with Goulet. Most winger don't get over 9m, especially those just leaving their ELCs. I'm not a real believers in "hometown discount" but I think Marner could a guy that would like to stay a Leaf....forever. He has seen other Leafs achieve "idol" status, despite really never winning anything. Salming, Sittler, Clarke, Gilmour, Sundin. Hometown Marner would have god like status, as a long term Leaf especially if the Leafs won a Cup. About 8.5m X 8m might do next summer.
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Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:14 p.m.
#15
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"the Leafs can't afford 8 year terms for Marner or Matthews without taking a step in the wrong direction as a team."

Marner could give two Fs less about any of that.

Trying to compare his contract to Kane is laughable. Hey guess what, McDavid hasn't won 3 cups and been the best player in the league for a decade and he still makes a lot more than 8.7 million.

It don't mean squat. It's all about what you can get because that's the name of the game. Otherwise you'd never have need for a cap increase.

Toronto has no choice but to lock him up long term. Because A. they don't want to end up in arbitration and B. bridging him will be more painful down the road.
Which means you are either going to see a lot of money coughed up or a long hold out just like Nylander. When they end up coughing up 13 million for Matthews, my guess is the contract on Marner is gonna easily be 8+.
Every point he racks up on stupid assists is gonna help inflate that number too. Which is rather hilarious. He's on pace for 108 points this year, 92 of them are on assists. A whopping 16 goals and you will still be forced to pay him a boat load of cash. Not even worth it in my book, but because fans are idiots they will be dishing out 8+ no problem.
Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:14 p.m.
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Quoting: ThatGuy
Marner is like Kane minus the cups.

He's on pace for 130 points??? and you're saying he's a 7.6 M guy?


With 41 points, one less than Gaudreau, Marner is on pace for 108 points, and 16 goals.

Kane put up better numbers, won Cups, Harts, Art Ross...
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Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:15 p.m.
#17
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Quoting: Goulet
They can't afford those numbers. Stamkos at 11.6% is a comp for Matthews but no contender can afford 15% and Matthews isn't worth it.


He's scoring a goal a game. When you try to low ball him his agent just laughs and demands 13+
Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:15 p.m.
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Quoting: Bcarlo25
You’re absolutely dreaming....dreaming. His market value is 10.5, he’ll probably take 9.5-10 to be a nice guy but in the 7s is why people hate leaf fans


Isnt he adorable.....
Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:21 p.m.
#19
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Here’s what Marner is going to do and I’m willing to wager on it.

He is waiting for Matthews to sign first. Anyone who thinks
Matthews takes less than $11m isn’t being realistic.

Marner will then compare himself to Matthews and ask for $10.5. Maybe they settle on $9.5, but I say Marner taking between $9-$10m on 7-8yrs is a discount.
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Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:27 p.m.
#20
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Quoting: Goulet
With 41 points, one less than Gaudreau, Marner is on pace for 108 points, and 16 goals.

Kane put up better numbers, won Cups, Harts, Art Ross...


My bad, 108 points! Still pretty incredible.

Ok let's use Gaudreau as a comparable.

Gaudreau
2015-2016 season
1point/game (ratio)

2016-2017
73Million dollar cap hit

Signed: 6,750M = 10.8% of cap

Marner
2018-2019
1.32point/game ratio (so far)

2019-2020
83Million dollar cap hit

If Signed at10.8% of cap = 8.964M

And I think Marner's a better player than Gaudreau
Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:28 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: ThatGuy
My bad, 108 points! Still pretty incredible.


Ok let's use Gaudreau as a comparable.

Gaudreau
2015-2016 season
1point/game (ratio)

2016-2017
73Million dollar cap hit

Signed: 6,750M = 10.8% of cap

Marner
2018-2019
1.32point/game ratio (so far)

2018-2019
83Million dollar cap hit

If Signed at10.8% of cap = 8.964M

And I think Marner's a better player than Gaudreau


If you look at Gaudreau's contract, it gives you his cap hit percentage. It's 9.25
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Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:31 p.m.
#22
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Quoting: Goulet
If you look at Gaudreau's contract, it gives you his cap hit percentage. It's 9.25


hahahahahahah 0-2

I am logging off the internet for today
Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:38 p.m.
#23
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With all these Leaf offers for Marner exceeding $10M, I'm afraid to see what Mikko Rantanen gets. His numbers are significantly better than Marner's and he doesn't play for an offensive juggernaut like the Maple Leafs.
Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:43 p.m.
#24
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
With all these Leaf offers for Marner exceeding $10M, I'm afraid to see what Mikko Rantanen gets. His numbers are significantly better than Marner's and he doesn't play for an offensive juggernaut like the Maple Leafs.


Excellent point. He plays with one of the best centres in the league and also has a LW producing at a point per game pace however.
Dec. 13, 2018 at 2:44 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: pharrow
He's scoring a goal a game. When you try to low ball him his agent just laughs and demands 13+


They don't hand out contracts based on 17 game samples.
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