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Depth moves with Van Dal Chi Stl

Created by: Eli
Team: 2018-19 Washington Capitals
Initial Creation Date: Jan. 7, 2019
Published: Jan. 7, 2019
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Who adds what?

Cap works as soon as anyone's got a hangnail, or paper-demote Vrana for a minute.
Trades
1.
2.
WSH
  1. Krüger, Marcus ($1,200,000 retained)
CHI
  1. Mitchell, Mason
  2. 2019 4th round pick (WSH)
3.
4.
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2018
2019
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2020
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2021
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$79,500,000$76,175,962$82,500$1,100,000$3,324,038
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$9,538,462$9,538,462
LW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
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$3,900,000$3,900,000
C
UFA - 7
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$5,166,667$5,166,667
RW
UFA - 6
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$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$600,000$600K)
LW
UFA - 1
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$6,700,000$6,700,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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$5,750,000$5,750,000
RW
M-NTC
UFA - 7
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$650,000$650,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$2,200,000$2,200,000
RW, C
NTC
UFA - 3
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$1,000,000$1,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
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$800,000$800,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
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$1,575,000$1,575,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
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$650,000$650,000
C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$2,500,000$2,500,000
LD
UFA - 4
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$8,000,000$8,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 8
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$6,100,000$6,100,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Dallas Stars
$2,200,000$2,200,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Washington Capitals
$5,750,000$5,750,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Washington Capitals
$650,000$650,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Washington Capitals
$1,000,000$1,000,000 (Performance Bonus$500,000$500K)
LD
NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the St. Louis Blues
$5,500,000$5,500,000
RD
UFA - 4
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$2,800,000$2,800,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Dallas Stars
$1,300,000$1,300,000
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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$700,000$700,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1

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Jan. 7, 2019 at 1:46 p.m.
#1
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Oof Hard Pass from the Blues. No where near. It's just not worth it at all.
Jan. 7, 2019 at 1:54 p.m.
#2
Kyle from Chicago
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If you give us a conditional 4th rounder with a chance to become a third then I would take that deal…
Jan. 7, 2019 at 1:59 p.m.
#3
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Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
Oof Hard Pass from the Blues. No where near. It's just not worth it at all.


Lol. You have no idea how much of an overpayment I'm giving you.

Did you even watch the Finals? Eller outscored and outplayed any of Vegas' centers. He's as good on PK as Parayko, and on a better contract. Bowey is scoring more p/60 than Parayko and, while he's younger, his defensive stats track really well against his draft class. His USAT%close is ahead of Hagg, Ristolainen, and Nurse. http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skaterpercentages&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20182019&seasonTo=20182019&gameType=2&draftYear=2013&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,20&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=unblockedShotAttemptsPctgClose

Bowey's SPSv% is 2nd only to Zadorov.

Hobbs leads the Caps' ahl defense prospects in points this year, and is a bit of a goon. Total STL type of player.

Plus I threw in a 2nd. Are the Blues rebuilding, or not?
Jan. 7, 2019 at 2:02 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: Eli
Lol. You have no idea how much of an overpayment I'm giving you.

Did you even watch the Finals? Eller outscored and outplayed any of Vegas' centers. He's as good on PK as Parayko, and on a better contract. Bowey is scoring more p/60 than Parayko and, while he's younger, his defensive stats track really well against his draft class. His USAT%close is ahead of Hagg, Ristolainen, and Nurse. http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skaterpercentages&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20182019&seasonTo=20182019&gameType=2&draftYear=2013&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,20&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=unblockedShotAttemptsPctgClose

Bowey's SPSv% is 2nd only to Zadorov.

Hobbs leads the Caps' ahl defense prospects in points this year, and is a bit of a goon. Total STL type of player.

Plus I threw in a 2nd. Are the Blues rebuilding, or not?


We already had Eller Armstrong didn't like him. Bowey isn't anything special and Hobbs not really either. Meh for a 2nd. You expect a top pairing d-man and our best performing Defenseman for that. No thank you.
Jan. 7, 2019 at 2:02 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: Eli
Lol. You have no idea how much of an overpayment I'm giving you.

Did you even watch the Finals? Eller outscored and outplayed any of Vegas' centers. He's as good on PK as Parayko, and on a better contract. Bowey is scoring more p/60 than Parayko and, while he's younger, his defensive stats track really well against his draft class. His USAT%close is ahead of Hagg, Ristolainen, and Nurse. http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skaterpercentages&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20182019&seasonTo=20182019&gameType=2&draftYear=2013&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,20&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=unblockedShotAttemptsPctgClose

Bowey's SPSv% is 2nd only to Zadorov.

Hobbs leads the Caps' ahl defense prospects in points this year, and is a bit of a goon. Total STL type of player.

Plus I threw in a 2nd. Are the Blues rebuilding, or not?


I don't think we will rebuild until it's a sure thing next season. Might give the team one last chance.
Jan. 7, 2019 at 2:03 p.m.
#6
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Edited Jan. 7, 2019 at 2:15 p.m.
Quoting: Stan_Bowman
If you give us a conditional 4th rounder with a chance to become a third then I would take that deal…


Thanks. Washington would be wiser to add more longshot prospects; conditional pick trades mean one less pick to trade for assistance if someone gets hurt or doesn't fit in, and the Caps have a lot of minor league contracts. Giving you Mitchell makes me happy. Giving you a third for a recent AHLer makes me laugh.

How about Kris Bindulis?

Edit: unless the condition is that he re-signs. Then you can have a conditional Backstrom, because while I value Kruger's experience, Dowd gets his spot back in the fall. Too many great possession stats.
Jan. 7, 2019 at 2:09 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
We already had Eller Armstrong didn't like him. Bowey isn't anything special and Hobbs not really either. Meh for a 2nd. You expect a top pairing d-man and our best performing Defenseman for that. No thank you.


You used to have Oshie, too, before he scored thirty goals in a season. They've both kept improving. Parayko may have top pair potential but he's third on the Blues blue line in minutes and defensive zone starts percentage, and the Blues are one point out of last place overall. Why lie to me? I can count to three. He's your #3 defenseman, and he'd play 3RD in Washington until Niskanen slows way down.

But the description didn't say "insult me."

Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
I don't think we will rebuild until it's a sure thing next season. Might give the team one last chance.


Good luck with that.
Jan. 7, 2019 at 2:12 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: Eli
You used to have Oshie, too, before he scored thirty goals in a season. They've both kept improving. Parayko may have top pair potential but he's third on the Blues blue line in minutes and defensive zone starts percentage, and the Blues are one point out of last place overall. Why lie to me? I can count to three. He's your #3 defenseman, and he'd play 3RD in Washington until Niskanen slows way down.

But the description didn't say "insult me."



Good luck with that.


Um, First Parayko is the First Line Pair. You can't say Pietrangelo, or Edmundson or Bouwmeester better than him. Because that's ridiculous when you see how bad they plpay defense compared to Parayko. Parayko is our only DEFENSIVE DEFENSEMAN. He is also playing the best. Nor did I insult you. You can't offer rubbish and expect the best.
Jan. 7, 2019 at 2:22 p.m.
#9
Lets Go Blues
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Jan. 7, 2019 at 2:26 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: Eli
You used to have Oshie, too, before he scored thirty goals in a season. They've both kept improving. Parayko may have top pair potential but he's third on the Blues blue line in minutes and defensive zone starts percentage, and the Blues are one point out of last place overall. Why lie to me? I can count to three. He's your #3 defenseman, and he'd play 3RD in Washington until Niskanen slows way down.

But the description didn't say "insult me."



Good luck with that.


That just isn't enough to deal Parayko. You can say whatever u want but, bowey doesn't compare to him at all, eller is a cap dump in this deal (sure he has value but we don't need/want him). Hobbs is 22 so not really a prospect anymore. And Parayko would be your 2nd best defensemen after Carlson and u know it. Also u got more for orlov then we did for Parayko, as most ppl would see lindell as having more value then orlov. Not trying to "insult" anyone just the way i see it
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Jan. 7, 2019 at 2:27 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
Um, First Parayko is the First Line Pair. You can't say Pietrangelo, or Edmundson or Bouwmeester better than him. Because that's ridiculous when you see how bad they plpay defense compared to Parayko. Parayko is our only DEFENSIVE DEFENSEMAN. He is also playing the best. Nor did I insult you. You can't offer rubbish and expect the best.


BMU, you just need to look up obscure, relatively meaningless stats and then use them as the ONLY THING THAT MATTERS when evaluating a player's value. Sort of like "Bowey's SPSv% is 2nd only to Zadorov." A single, obscure, meaningless stat.

5v5 goals compared to draft class is another good obscure meaningless one.

If you can find something like "Defensive zone starts, on weekend days, against teams with green in their jerseys" somewhere... golden!
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Jan. 7, 2019 at 2:28 p.m.
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But... but... but... SPSv%???
Jan. 7, 2019 at 2:28 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: biglite351
BMU, you just need to look up obscure, relatively meaningless stats and then use them as the ONLY THING THAT MATTERS when evaluating a player's value. Sort of like "Bowey's SPSv% is 2nd only to Zadorov." A single, obscure, meaningless stat.

5v5 goals compared to draft class is another good obscure meaningless one.

If you can find something like "Defensive zone starts, on weekend days, against teams with green in their jerseys" somewhere... golden!


Well you need to look at Market Value. 5.5M for 4 year is cheap for Parayko skillset.
Jan. 7, 2019 at 2:30 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
Um, First Parayko is the First Line Pair. You can't say Pietrangelo, or Edmundson or Bouwmeester better than him. Because that's ridiculous when you see how bad they plpay defense compared to Parayko. Parayko is our only DEFENSIVE DEFENSEMAN. He is also playing the best. Nor did I insult you. You can't offer rubbish and expect the best.


I agree the wheels fell off of Bouwmeester. He'll probably retire.

Okay. I'm wrong. Parayko is 2nd on the STL blue line in ice time, but I double checked, using the link I just gave you, and he plays more offensive zone starts than Pietrangelo or Edmundson, but still gives up a greater percentage of shots than either, in close games. So he's not on the shutdown pair, but he does get big minutes to try to generate shots, even at the risk of giving up more shots. Bowey could already be better in that role, because he scores points at a higher rate, but he's less experienced, so I added a bunch.
Jan. 7, 2019 at 2:34 p.m.
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Pretty picture. It says the Blues' forwards crash the net more than Kings forwards and Parayko gives up more shots against than Doughty. But we all knew all that.
Jan. 7, 2019 at 2:45 p.m.
#16
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Quoting: Eli
Pretty picture. It says the Blues' forwards crash the net more than Kings forwards and Parayko gives up more shots against than Doughty. But we all knew all that.


Ah @Eli, the master of bad trades, poor explanations, and useless discussion. Thanks for trying to help the Blues out but we'll keep our inferior player wink.
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Jan. 7, 2019 at 2:50 p.m.
#17
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Quoting: Eli
I agree the wheels fell off of Bouwmeester. He'll probably retire.

Okay. I'm wrong. Parayko is 2nd on the STL blue line in ice time, but I double checked, using the link I just gave you, and he plays more offensive zone starts than Pietrangelo or Edmundson, but still gives up a greater percentage of shots than either, in close games. So he's not on the shutdown pair, but he does get big minutes to try to generate shots, even at the risk of giving up more shots. Bowey could already be better in that role, because he scores points at a higher rate, but he's less experienced, so I added a bunch.


Yes he gives up the most shots, but not all of them are good percentage chance shots. Pietrangelo gives up 1 on 0 Breakaways same wit Bouwmeester.
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Jan. 7, 2019 at 2:53 p.m.
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Quoting: Turner33
That just isn't enough to deal Parayko. You can say whatever u want but, bowey doesn't compare to him at all, eller is a cap dump in this deal (sure he has value but we don't need/want him). Hobbs is 22 so not really a prospect anymore. And Parayko would be your 2nd best defensemen after Carlson and u know it. Also u got more for orlov then we did for Parayko, as most ppl would see lindell as having more value then orlov. Not trying to "insult" anyone just the way i see it


Carlson is the Caps'third best defenseman, behind Orlov and Niskanen, although I'm not sure Niskanen isn't back ahead of Orlov this year, defensively. He's playing bigger minutes, tougher zone starts, and more PK. Carlson is great at offense and okay at defense and PK. Parayko is okay at offense and okay at defense and PK. Bowey is slightly better than Parayko on offense, starting out almost as good as him at defense and PK, but just doesn't have the experience I would want at 3RHD for the playoffs. He does have a much better cap hit though, at 1M. Bowey and Eller together cost 4.5M next year. Parayko costs 5.5M.

It's a great cap move. Maybe some other team wants Parayko to develop into it's #1RD? Maybe they overpay and hope. I don't know. I think a good 3rhd two years younger, plus a good 3C, equals fair value for a rebuilding team's #2RHD.

But the description asks "who adds what?"
Jan. 7, 2019 at 2:56 p.m.
#19
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Quoting: A_K
Ah @Eli, the master of bad trades, poor explanations, and useless discussion. Thanks for trying to help the Blues out but we'll keep our inferior player wink.


You sent me a graph of expected goals for. That's a stat defined by how close to front of the net teammates get before taking shots. Yes, the Blues have guys like Maroon who give them good XGF. It has nothing. Nothing. Nothing to do with Parayko.

He's better than Bowey, but not for long. He's pretty close to Eller, but more expensive.

Do you know you're talking nonsense?
Jan. 7, 2019 at 2:59 p.m.
#20
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Edited Jan. 7, 2019 at 3:06 p.m.
Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
Yes he gives up the most shots, but not all of them are good percentage chance shots. Pietrangelo gives up 1 on 0 Breakaways same wit Bouwmeester.


I think goalies handle puck carriers and defensemen cut off passing lanes or go in for a hit.

That means shot rate statistics are mostly useful to show which end of the rink a player spends more time in. Pietro and Edmundson tilt the ice forward for Stl. Parayko doesn't. But he's got more PK experience than Bowey, so he could share short-handed minutes evenly with Carlson and Niskanen, which should reduce their fatigue, thereby improving the Caps'chances of repeating. I'm also hopeful that, with drastically reduced TOI, Parayko would look better, but I'm not counting on it. Just need about 19 minutes a game, two of them short-handed, all somewhat more solid than I'd expect from a 2nd year NHLer.

If I have to outbid Islanders fans, it's because they haven't figured out their cap situation requires them to include Leddy, or worse, to be able to keep their forwards together.
Jan. 7, 2019 at 3:04 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: Eli
I think goalies handle puck carriers and defensemen cut off passing lanes or go in for a hit.


I think that Parayko is more reliable when it comes to game time compared to Bowey. Because Parayko is good in the corners he can drive the puck and he is really strong compared to Bowey. I think maybe you add an extra piece or take out a piece and add a even better piece we might have a deal. I really like Alexeyev that would kind of be like a Toronto deal where it would be based on Liljegren is what we would want. That's kind of the deal we would want.
Jan. 7, 2019 at 3:05 p.m.
#22
JJ_91
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Canucks say yes immediately, but I don't think Caps do
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Jan. 7, 2019 at 3:09 p.m.
#23
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Quoting: Eli
You sent me a graph of expected goals for. That's a stat defined by how close to front of the net teammates get before taking shots. Yes, the Blues have guys like Maroon who give them good XGF. It has nothing. Nothing. Nothing to do with Parayko.

He's better than Bowey, but not for long. He's pretty close to Eller, but more expensive.

Do you know you're talking nonsense?


The image I shared was from stat regressions from 2015-2018; Pat Maroon was not on the Blues. Also, this season Pat Maroon's on-ice xGF at 5v5 (13.89) is almost identical to his actual GF (14), so he's not really a poster child for a guy with misleading expected stats.

The graph is not just xGF. It is RAPM, Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus. These are interpreted as a skater's offensive and defensive contribution (per 60 minutes) to the league scoring rate (Goals, xG, or Corsi). The entire purpose is to reduce all of the data collected in hockey games into coefficients that compare a single player's shifts to the league.

Besides, xGF has more than one variable. Shot distance is the most heavily-weighted, but shot type, angle, time after previous shot, and a whole mess of other variables are in play. It's not a perfect stat but it means a lot more than, say, "unblocked shot attempts - close".

Who is the one spouting off nonsense?
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Jan. 7, 2019 at 3:27 p.m.
#24
Sam
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Quoting: Eli
You sent me a graph of expected goals for. That's a stat defined by how close to front of the net teammates get before taking shots. Yes, the Blues have guys like Maroon who give them good XGF. It has nothing. Nothing. Nothing to do with Parayko.

He's better than Bowey, but not for long. He's pretty close to Eller, but more expensive.

Do you know you're talking nonsense?


Has Madison Bowey ever played 28 minutes in consecutive games against Connor Mcdavid and held him off the board at even strength? That’s okay, maybe he’s an offensive dynamo. Oh wait, he has 1 career goal. I’m a big fan of Eller, but he’s a 3c and the Blues already have 4 centers so he doesn’t help us.
Jan. 7, 2019 at 3:35 p.m.
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Quoting: A_K
The image I shared was from stat regressions from 2015-2018; Pat Maroon was not on the Blues. Also, this season Pat Maroon's on-ice xGF at 5v5 (13.89) is almost identical to his actual GF (14), so he's not really a poster child for a guy with misleading expected stats.

The graph is not just xGF. It is RAPM, Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus. These are interpreted as a skater's offensive and defensive contribution (per 60 minutes) to the league scoring rate (Goals, xG, or Corsi). The entire purpose is to reduce all of the data collected in hockey games into coefficients that compare a single player's shifts to the league.

Besides, xGF has more than one variable. Shot distance is the most heavily-weighted, but shot type, angle, time after previous shot, and a whole mess of other variables are in play. It's not a perfect stat but it means a lot more than, say, "unblocked shot attempts - close".

Who is the one spouting off nonsense?


I believe in goals, shots, shot attempts, and the idea of trying to get a database to put them together into something bite sized. I don't think XGF is there, yet. Nor do I believe in point shares, or whatever. I do believe Parayko is currently stronger than Bowey and better at clearing the crease on the PK. Hence the offer.

Can your badly labeled graph tell me why Madison Bowey's p/60 is ahead of Parayko's this year? Can it tell whether Bowey's back to back 60 pt seasons in juniors give him a higher offensive ceiling?

I think there's really no way to accurately predict when Bowey becomes better than Parayko in similar minutes, but a lot of little stats make me think it should happen, eventually, as his endurance improves. I also think he could be better on PK. Eventually. The O'Reilly pick is top ten protected, so keeping the better defenseman right now doesn't seem like a logical priority.

If I'm Armstrong, I figure out the best prospect I can flip Eller for. This morning nobody batted an eye at a one for one for Puljujarvi (which Washington would not do; Eller is one of their best penalty killers).

That way you get three good prospects and cap space to add a bargain UFA in the summer, and you get a high lottery pick now, and then try to focus on winning, again, right after. Selling before LA and Florida should give the best odds at Hughes, so it's just a matter of finding a playoff team that could use some defensemen, and committing to a plan.
 
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