The only TDL trade we should make

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$79,500,000	$77,048,611	$2,550,000	$5,400,000	$2,451,389

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Johnsson, Andreas $787,500$787,500 LW, RW UFA - 1	Matthews, Auston $925,000$925,000 ($2,850,000$3M) C UFA - 1	Nylander, William $10,277,778$10,277,778 RW UFA - 6
Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW UFA - 3	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 7	Marner, Mitchell $894,167$894,167 ($850,000$850K) RW UFA - 1
Marleau, Patrick $6,250,000$6,250,000 LW, C NMC UFA - 2	Kadri, Nazem $4,500,000$4,500,000 C M-NTC UFA - 4	Kapanen, Kasperi $863,333$863,333 RW UFA - 1
Ennis, Tyler $650,000$650,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Lindholm, Pär $925,000$925,000 ($850,000$850K) LW, C UFA - 1	Brown, Connor $2,100,000$2,100,000 RW, LW UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD UFA - 4	Jensen, Nick $812,500$812,500 RD UFA - 1	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 3
Gardiner, Jake $4,050,000$4,050,000 LD UFA - 1	Zaitsev, Nikita $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD UFA - 6	Sparks, Garret $675,000$675,000 G UFA - 1
Dermott, Travis $863,333$863,333 LD/RD UFA - 2	Hainsey, Ron $3,000,000$3,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 1

Jan. 9, 2019 at 2:54 p.m.

#1

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 203

Likes: 54

I like your trade. Kronwall is another guy I would look at for a rental. Wouldn't cost much, lots of experience, and would be an upgrade on D. Not a big Hamilton fan personally, He has been traded twice now in his career and there have been some red flags raised about him. If an impact D is on the table, id be looking at guys like Slavin, Pesce, one of Philly's D, Tanev, something like that. But I like your Jensen trade, cheap, effective D-man.

Jan. 9, 2019 at 3:13 p.m.

#2

littlejerryseinfeld

Joined: Nov. 2017

Posts: 27,649

Likes: 14,432

It's a small point, but defensemen go for more than that. Jensen plays 20:45 a night. That will cost a 2nd.

GenXHockey liked this.

Jan. 9, 2019 at 3:14 p.m.

#3

Booyah

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 476

Likes: 74

Tanev can be effective

Jan. 9, 2019 at 3:23 p.m.

#4

Juice

Joined: Apr. 2016

Posts: 3,301

Likes: 1,512

The main theme, which I agree with, is the leafs are likely better off trading mid picks/b-prospects for depth on defence...not sending 1sts/top prospects/current young roster players in a blockbuster type deal

My only caveat would be if, between now and the TDL, Nylander has his game back on track and there’s a sense Kapanen/Johnsson are looking for bigger paydays next year than can reasonably be fit...I’m okay parting with one of them in a package for a d-man with term on a good contract

GenXHockey liked this.

Jan. 9, 2019 at 3:48 p.m.

#5

LetsGoBlues18

holy moly

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 102

Likes: 28

Quoting: Juice

The main theme, which I agree with, is the leafs are likely better off trading mid picks/b-prospects for depth on defence...not sending 1sts/top prospects/current young roster players in a blockbuster type deal

My only caveat would be if, between now and the TDL, Nylander has his game back on track and there’s a sense Kapanen/Johnsson are looking for bigger paydays next year than can reasonably be fit...I’m okay parting with one of them in a package for a d-man with term on a good contract

This is not the way to think. This is the last year of ELC on marner and Matthews. This year is the best shot you’ll have for the next 4 years. You guys need to trade for very good defense.

Jan. 9, 2019 at 4:00 p.m.

#6

Juice

Joined: Apr. 2016

Posts: 3,301

Likes: 1,512

Quoting: LetsGoBlues18

This is not the way to think. This is the last year of ELC on marner and Matthews. This year is the best shot you’ll have for the next 4 years. You guys need to trade for very good defense.

Respectfully disagree. Why blow your load on one year and sacrifice several others in the future?

I don’t accept that this is the best chance the Leafs will have to win a cup with this core. IMO, they may take a step back next year with Gardiner and Hainsey being replaced by Marlies...but two years from now you’ll have the same core, still very much in their primes, top defensive prospects hopefully ready to contribute, and cap space to maneuver with

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Jan. 9, 2019 at 4:14 p.m.

#7

GenXHockey

Formerly Jamiepo

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 21,157

Likes: 10,700

Quoting: Juice

Respectfully disagree. Why blow your load on one year and sacrifice several others in the future?

I don’t accept that this is the best chance the Leafs will have to win a cup with this core. IMO, they may take a step back next year with Gardiner and Hainsey being replaced by Marlies...but two years from now you’ll have the same core, still very much in their primes, top defensive prospects hopefully ready to contribute, and cap space to maneuver with

I think the other thing to keep in mind is that yes a small step back replacing Gardiner and hainsey but a step forward in development with all young players. Especially guys like dermott Johnsson and kappy who will all have their first full nhl seasons under their belt. Even an older player like ozhiganov playing his first nhl season will certainly be more prepared for next season. Even seen a bit of growth from gauthier this season.

Jan. 9, 2019 at 4:22 p.m.

#8

GenXHockey

Formerly Jamiepo

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 21,157

Likes: 10,700

I agree with what you are saying (besides Hamilton, no thank you). Depth moves are more than likely what we will see. Don’t like the idea of bumping out Ozzy but it’s much better than the prospect of an injury in the playoffs and having to move in Holl or marincin.

tomkinoo liked this.

Jan. 9, 2019 at 4:23 p.m.

#9

rush5154

Joined: Jan. 2018

Posts: 235

Likes: 50

The Leafs are in a bit of a predicament. On the one hand, the fan base and analysts have been calling for a upgrade to be made on the defensive core for two years now. It hasn't been addressed - to date - and we all know what happened against Boston last year in the playoffs.

On the other hand, Tampa made a huge swing last year acquiring JT Miller and Ryan McDonaugh, and it got them within one game of the Cup finals but not all the way there. Granted - they are an absolutely wagon this year and are more experienced for another run with those pieces added.

So what does Toronto do? They need to get out of the first round of the playoffs to start, and I think that will happen. However, without a significant add or two by the TDL I don't see Toronto beating Tampa unless a key injury occurs to Tampa (Vasilevsky or Hedman or Kucherov, etc.). Should Toronto be patient like Tampa has been and keep adding and have continued regular season and some playoff season success (but no cups since 2003-2004) or do they show the fan base they can make a run with the cap space they have? It'll be interesting to see what transpires...

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Jan. 9, 2019 at 4:53 p.m.

#10

superbrett

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 173

Likes: 44

Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld

It's a small point, but defensemen go for more than that. Jensen plays 20:45 a night. That will cost a 2nd.

I would be fine giving up a second. Seems to be this teams MO at the deadline only instead of trading for a 4th line centre they're trading for a bottom 4 defenseman.

Jan. 9, 2019 at 5:35 p.m.

#11

GenXHockey

Formerly Jamiepo

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 21,157

Likes: 10,700

Quoting: rush5154

The Leafs are in a bit of a predicament. On the one hand, the fan base and analysts have been calling for a upgrade to be made on the defensive core for two years now. It hasn't been addressed - to date - and we all know what happened against Boston last year in the playoffs.

On the other hand, Tampa made a huge swing last year acquiring JT Miller and Ryan McDonaugh, and it got them within one game of the Cup finals but not all the way there. Granted - they are an absolutely wagon this year and are more experienced for another run with those pieces added.

So what does Toronto do? They need to get out of the first round of the playoffs to start, and I think that will happen. However, without a significant add or two by the TDL I don't see Toronto beating Tampa unless a key injury occurs to Tampa (Vasilevsky or Hedman or Kucherov, etc.). Should Toronto be patient like Tampa has been and keep adding and have continued regular season and some playoff season success (but no cups since 2003-2004) or do they show the fan base they can make a run with the cap space they have? It'll be interesting to see what transpires...

With the cap issues we are facing next season I think it’s more wise to wait and see what we have in defence next season. It will be just as easy to trade a player who is signed next year as it is to trade rfa rights this season.

I think it’s unfair to put the blame solely on the defence last year. Digging that hole in the first round was a team effort.

rush5154 liked this.

Jan. 9, 2019 at 6:17 p.m.

#12

Juice

Joined: Apr. 2016

Posts: 3,301

Likes: 1,512

Quoting: rush5154

The Leafs are in a bit of a predicament. On the one hand, the fan base and analysts have been calling for a upgrade to be made on the defensive core for two years now. It hasn't been addressed - to date - and we all know what happened against Boston last year in the playoffs.

On the other hand, Tampa made a huge swing last year acquiring JT Miller and Ryan McDonaugh, and it got them within one game of the Cup finals but not all the way there. Granted - they are an absolutely wagon this year and are more experienced for another run with those pieces added.

So what does Toronto do? They need to get out of the first round of the playoffs to start, and I think that will happen. However, without a significant add or two by the TDL I don't see Toronto beating Tampa unless a key injury occurs to Tampa (Vasilevsky or Hedman or Kucherov, etc.). Should Toronto be patient like Tampa has been and keep adding and have continued regular season and some playoff season success (but no cups since 2003-2004) or do they show the fan base they can make a run with the cap space they have? It'll be interesting to see what transpires...

Every year in hockey, there’s at least 5-6 teams who are considered cup contenders. A lot of times any of the 16 teams that qualify have a punchers chance.

Would it be overly surprising to anyone if Nashville, San Jose, Winnipeg, Tampa, Vegas, Washington, Pittsburgh or Toronto won?

All have great teams, all have some warts.

In a hypothetical universe, let’s say San Jose puts Karlsson on the block and the Leafs can pick him up for a first, Sandin and Kapanen (troll disclaimer: no, I don’t think EK is available nor would that offer be near enough.). Would the leafs adding EK to their blue line guarantee anything?

Would it make them head and shoulders above Tampa who they’d have to get past in the 2nd round at the earliest?

No. There’s never any guarantees. I’m hard pressed to think of any MAJOR deadline acquisition that catapulted a team from ‘one of the contenders’ to Cup champs.

Maybe Bourque to Colorado? Avalanche were already a cup favourite but that’s the only example that comes to mind.

IMO, deadline is best for adding complimentary and depth pieces to an already good team, or for restructuring teams to offload vets for futures. Not for contending teams to sell the farm to add a stud in hopes the few weeks you have him for get you a ring.

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Jan. 10, 2019 at 10:22 a.m.

#13

rush5154

Joined: Jan. 2018

Posts: 235

Likes: 50

Quoting: Juice

Every year in hockey, there’s at least 5-6 teams who are considered cup contenders. A lot of times any of the 16 teams that qualify have a punchers chance.

Would it be overly surprising to anyone if Nashville, San Jose, Winnipeg, Tampa, Vegas, Washington, Pittsburgh or Toronto won?

All have great teams, all have some warts.

In a hypothetical universe, let’s say San Jose puts Karlsson on the block and the Leafs can pick him up for a first, Sandin and Kapanen (troll disclaimer: no, I don’t think EK is available nor would that offer be near enough.). Would the leafs adding EK to their blue line guarantee anything?

Would it make them head and shoulders above Tampa who they’d have to get past in the 2nd round at the earliest?

No. There’s never any guarantees. I’m hard pressed to think of any MAJOR deadline acquisition that catapulted a team from ‘one of the contenders’ to Cup champs.

Maybe Bourque to Colorado? Avalanche were already a cup favourite but that’s the only example that comes to mind.

IMO, deadline is best for adding complimentary and depth pieces to an already good team, or for restructuring teams to offload vets for futures. Not for contending teams to sell the farm to add a stud in hopes the few weeks you have him for get you a ring.

All great points you've raised here.

You're right, there's no guarantee and the current playoff format will - again - eliminate a top 6 team in the second round.

In terms of previous adds that may have put a contending team over the top, Carter and Gaborik to LA gave them some finishing abilities and speed, respectively, in addition to their heavy play style. Other than that - I think you're right modernly speaking. Martin St.Louis to NYR didn't guarantee a win, neither did adding Eric Staal a few years later. Rick Nash to Boston didn't guarantee a win. Iginla to Pittsburgh didn't guarantee a win.

My only critique would be that the Leafs have done this small, depth adds for two years in a row now. First with Boyle, then with Pleckanec. Neither of these moves addressed the defense and neither of these moves allowed them to get out of the first round. Maybe if Carolina falls out of the playoff race (they've won 5 in a row however) the Leafs can meet somewhere in the middle. Acquire a 3-4 defenceman on cap certainty for picks, prospects and maybe one roster player. But, even that may be unattainable if the Leafs have to sacrifice winger depth like Johnsson or Kapanen.

Juice liked this.

Jan. 10, 2019 at 10:35 a.m.

#14

Juice

Joined: Apr. 2016

Posts: 3,301

Likes: 1,512

Quoting: rush5154

All great points you've raised here.

You're right, there's no guarantee and the current playoff format will - again - eliminate a top 6 team in the second round.

In terms of previous adds that may have put a contending team over the top, Carter and Gaborik to LA gave them some finishing abilities and speed, respectively, in addition to their heavy play style. Other than that - I think you're right modernly speaking. Martin St.Louis to NYR didn't guarantee a win, neither did adding Eric Staal a few years later. Rick Nash to Boston didn't guarantee a win. Iginla to Pittsburgh didn't guarantee a win.

My only critique would be that the Leafs have done this small, depth adds for two years in a row now. First with Boyle, then with Pleckanec. Neither of these moves addressed the defense and neither of these moves allowed them to get out of the first round. Maybe if Carolina falls out of the playoff race (they've won 5 in a row however) the Leafs can meet somewhere in the middle. Acquire a 3-4 defenceman on cap certainty for picks, prospects and maybe one roster player. But, even that may be unattainable if the Leafs have to sacrifice winger depth like Johnsson or Kapanen.

Agreed. I hated the Plekanec deal last year. Boyle I didn't mind as much and he filled more holes. And I agree with the LAK trade assessment too.

I think where Dubas is in the biggest bind is Marner. I love the kid but he's likely handcuffing the Leafs right now. He's pretty much refusing to sign an extension in-season and everything I know about him and his camp tells me that they want Matthews to sign first so they can piggyback off his number the way Draisatl did with McDavid. On the other hand...I think Matthews' camp is sitting there waiting for the leafs to offer a deal as they care much less about what number Marner comes in at.

This is significant because I don't think Dubas wants to sacrifice any major futures for a deadline rental. If M&M numbers come in on the high end...those futures will be more valuable as you need bodies that can contribute on ELC's. I think Dubas would love to get in on talks for Pietrangelo...and probably has already done so...but without knowing the cap hit for M&M, can't take on the risk of adding another contract for next season. That's why I think it's safer to stay away from bigger trade deals this TDL...take your lumps next year with what will probably be a lower skilled d-group, and re-group the following year. Marner getting signed to a reasonable contract before this year's TDL would change everything, IMO

rush5154 liked this.

Jan. 10, 2019 at 11:59 a.m.

#15

rush5154

Joined: Jan. 2018

Posts: 235

Likes: 50

Quoting: Juice

Agreed. I hated the Plekanec deal last year. Boyle I didn't mind as much and he filled more holes. And I agree with the LAK trade assessment too.

I think where Dubas is in the biggest bind is Marner. I love the kid but he's likely handcuffing the Leafs right now. He's pretty much refusing to sign an extension in-season and everything I know about him and his camp tells me that they want Matthews to sign first so they can piggyback off his number the way Draisatl did with McDavid. On the other hand...I think Matthews' camp is sitting there waiting for the leafs to offer a deal as they care much less about what number Marner comes in at.

This is significant because I don't think Dubas wants to sacrifice any major futures for a deadline rental. If M&M numbers come in on the high end...those futures will be more valuable as you need bodies that can contribute on ELC's. I think Dubas would love to get in on talks for Pietrangelo...and probably has already done so...but without knowing the cap hit for M&M, can't take on the risk of adding another contract for next season. That's why I think it's safer to stay away from bigger trade deals this TDL...take your lumps next year with what will probably be a lower skilled d-group, and re-group the following year. Marner getting signed to a reasonable contract before this year's TDL would change everything, IMO

You're right - I think the Leafs thought Marner would be good, but not this good so early in his career. Marner's camp may also wait and see what Rantanen and Laine sign for, as they're both right wingers. Last summer my mindset was, Nylander will sign for 6-6.5 million AAV, Marner 7-7.5 AAV, and Matthews 11 AAV. Well lol - I highly doubt that is going to happen. Nylander signed for 7 (essentially), Matthews will get 11.5-12 AAV and Marner will probably look for 10 million. So, as you said, that extra 2-3 million that Marner is asking for - and may likely get - handcuffs the Leafs ability to be aggressive on the trade and free agent markets. They'll have to subtract some pieces - yes Marleau gone after next season helps - but then Reilly will be up, so will Kadri and Freddie Andersen, and then the problem restarts. Not an envious position to be in if you're Dubas.

Jan. 10, 2019 at 12:33 p.m.

#16

Booyah

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 476

Likes: 74

Notice whichever team wins the Presidents Trophy the last few years get a out in the second round? Bad spot to be in apparently. And regular season success has nothing to do with post season success

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2018
2019
2020
2021

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Gauthier, Frédérik $675,000$675,000 C UFA - 2	Horton, Nathan $5,300,000$5,300,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 2
Ozhiganov, Igor $925,000$925,000 ($850,000$850K) RD UFA - 1
Marincin, Martin $800,000$800,000 LD UFA - 1

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