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Joined: Mar. 2018
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I agree with what you've said about Marner, I could see him coming in around $9M on a 8 year deal. Comparables are Draisaitl and Eichel. Draisaitl at $8.5 and Eichel at $10, and the fact that Eichel is a centre would suggest he gets more since centres are far more valuable. & since Marner has been a little more consistent than Draisaitl, and the cap has gone up since that deal was signed, $9M seems fair.
Matthews on the other hand, I could see $12M on the low end for a 8 year deal. I think that buys out roughly 3 years of his UFA status and he may not be as good as McDavid, but with the cap rising by nearly $3.5M, it's not the same as the McDavid deal. It'd be less of a cap percentage. Matthews has a similar type of impact on Toronto as McDavid does on Edmonton. As much as McDavid carries Edmonton (he's really the only good player on that team) Matthews does quite a bit of carrying too. With Matthews it's just not as magnified because he has players around him that can chip in to take some pressure off (again, Edmonton has no one outside of McDavid). There's a different level of confidence in the Leafs games when Matthews plays, players just seem more relaxed because of his impact. Add in the fact that Matthews is much better defensively than McDavid, and a similar number is very likely for Matthews next deal.
IMO - Marner, $8.75-$9.25/7 years
Matthews, $12-$12.5/ 8 years
Might be smart for the Leafs to take a year off Marner's deal to save a bit to give to Matthews, and to not have them both UFA's at the same time again.
But god I'd love to get Matthews done around $11-11.5M as you've said