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Tarasenko for the all russian line

Team: 2018-19 Washington Capitals
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Jan. 21, 2019 at 2:41 p.m.
#1
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As fun as this would be to see, I couldn't bear watching Jensen in the top four
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Jan. 21, 2019 at 2:45 p.m.
#2
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I dont see STL accepting that. Niskanen is a 32 year old banged up injured dman, Burka plays soft and his value has gone down hill this year, the 1st rounder will probably be a late one, but Vrana is a solid player that the caps should keep
Jan. 21, 2019 at 3:04 p.m.
#3
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I like these acquisitions, but you're giving up equal value, on ice this year, and throwing in futures. It doesn't make any sense. One or the other. Or a combination that adds up to the same.

Vrana is four years younger than Tarasenko, but Tarasenko has four more points this season. Taking on a huge cap hit doesn't make sense unless there's some snowball's chance Vrana asks for that much this summer, in which case it's still just getting the team a bunch older for not much reason? Could Tarasenko look better in Washington? Maybe. But could Vrana keep improving from agest 23-27, while Tarasenko plateaus into his thirties? Almost definitely.

Burakovsky and Fabbri each have five points in their last 23 games, one year apart. That part is okay as a change of scenes.

Jensen is playing the toughest minutes of his career, at 28 years old, playing 20 minutes a night. Niskanen's easing off a bit at 31, playing 22 minutes a night, with tougher zone starts than Jensen likely indicating tougher competition. Niskanen is a playoff legend, and Jensen is unknown. Adding Jensen at 3RD helps the Caps contend. Cutting Niskanen to make room for him means they have to go trade for a #1 defensive defenseman.

The Caps give up as much on defense as they gain on offense, and come out the same age, on average, at a cost of their top forward prospect, a 1st, and a 3rd. I like these trade targets, and I'm sure the other teams accept all of these offers, but the above roster is less of a contender than the current Capitals, with less of a future.
Jan. 21, 2019 at 3:51 p.m.
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Having actually watched the players involved, not just looking at stat lines as if they spelt out everything that you need in order to gauge the value of a trade... this is the closest thing to a real trade for Tarasenko to come to the Caps that I have seen on here.
Jan. 21, 2019 at 4:16 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: biglite351
Having actually watched the players involved, not just looking at stat lines as if they spelt out everything that you need in order to gauge the value of a trade... this is the closest thing to a real trade for Tarasenko to come to the Caps that I have seen on here.


How refreshing. A Penguins fan chiming in on a Caps post to tell us to overpay for whoever we want. Haven't seen that in ten minutes.

Have you seen Tarasenko play at 31, and compared him to Vrana at 26, Burakovsky at 27, and whoever gets drafted with that pick? Because that's how this trade will be judged, and it will be a loss without even needing to remember back to this year and next year when Niskanen is a solid shutdown defenseman who puts up 20 to 30 points.
Jan. 21, 2019 at 4:46 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: Eli
How refreshing. A Penguins fan chiming in on a Caps post to tell us to overpay for whoever we want. Haven't seen that in ten minutes.

Have you seen Tarasenko play at 31, and compared him to Vrana at 26, Burakovsky at 27, and whoever gets drafted with that pick? Because that's how this trade will be judged, and it will be a loss without even needing to remember back to this year and next year when Niskanen is a solid shutdown defenseman who puts up 20 to 30 points.


With the way you chat up Burakovsky all the time, I don't think that you have actually seen Burakovsky play this year, much less 4 years from now... you just look at advanced stats until you find something that you can use as sole proof that player A is better than player B.

If you want good players in return, you need to give up good players/assets.

But by your logic... shouldn't the Caps trade Ovechkin now for a 1st? Afterall, when the player picked with that 1st is 28, and Ovechkin is 43... which player will look better? According to you, that is how that trade will be judged.
Jan. 21, 2019 at 5:10 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: Eli
Have you seen Tarasenko play at 31, and compared him to Vrana at 26, Burakovsky at 27


No, but we saw him play at 23 (77, 37-36-73 +27) and 24 (80, 40-34-74 +7).

Vrana is on pace for 82, 26-19-45* this season while Burakovsky is on pace for 76, 9-11-20. Not even remotely comparable, sorry, and a late 1st doesn't compensate. The addition of Niskanen helps, but St. Louis hardly needs another RHD. And then you have Fabbri coming back - a tremendous talent if he can get healthy. And cheap, too. This could be a big win for Washington, at worst its an even deal.

*Additional context: Vrana's most common linemates are Kuznetsov, Oshie and Backstrom. He isn't driving the bus here. Tarasenko's center for both years listed was Jori Lehtera.

I think @biglite351 was being charitable with his comments. Your response looks pretty poorly on you.
Jan. 21, 2019 at 5:43 p.m.
#8
Who adds what?
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Quoting: CD282
No, but we saw him play at 23 (77, 37-36-73 +27) and 24 (80, 40-34-74 +7).

Vrana is on pace for 82, 26-19-45* this season while Burakovsky is on pace for 76, 9-11-20. Not even remotely comparable, sorry, and a late 1st doesn't compensate. The addition of Niskanen helps, but St. Louis hardly needs another RHD. And then you have Fabbri coming back - a tremendous talent if he can get healthy. And cheap, too. This could be a big win for Washington, at worst its an even deal.

*Additional context: Vrana's most common linemates are Kuznetsov, Oshie and Backstrom. He isn't driving the bus here. Tarasenko's center for both years listed was Jori Lehtera.

I think @biglite351 was being charitable with his comments. Your response looks pretty poorly on you.


Ah, yes, and that STL line was driven by Steen, initially.

You think we're dumb?
Jan. 21, 2019 at 5:47 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: CD282
No, but we saw him play at 23 (77, 37-36-73 +27) and 24 (80, 40-34-74 +7).

Vrana is on pace for 82, 26-19-45* this season while Burakovsky is on pace for 76, 9-11-20. Not even remotely comparable, sorry, and a late 1st doesn't compensate. The addition of Niskanen helps, but St. Louis hardly needs another RHD. And then you have Fabbri coming back - a tremendous talent if he can get healthy. And cheap, too. This could be a big win for Washington, at worst its an even deal.

*Additional context: Vrana's most common linemates are Kuznetsov, Oshie and Backstrom. He isn't driving the bus here. Tarasenko's center for both years listed was Jori Lehtera.

I think @biglite351 was being charitable with his comments. Your response looks pretty poorly on you.


I just think another to add is that Tarasenko is the best player in the trade. Sure he's having a down year, but he's so consistent and even in this down year he will have better numbers than Vrana. That counts for something. He's an elite player and an elite shooter. While I don't think it will happen, Vrana could have a problem with his development and Burk might fall out of the league. That first could end up being a nonreactor player. But to get certainty in the player you have of Tarasenko is the real impetus behind this trade. Certainty and consistency are huge pieces. Niskanen is consistent too, but you have to give up good players to get good players. Couldn't get tarasenko for a whole bunch of hopefuls. There would have to be a good piece going back. I know me and Eli disagree on a lot of these issues, but I just felt that the consistency aspect had to be mentioned @Eli
Jan. 21, 2019 at 5:51 p.m.
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Edited Jan. 21, 2019 at 6:00 p.m.
Quoting: BetterBrianMaclellan
I just think another to add is that Tarasenko is the best player in the trade. Sure he's having a down year, but he's so consistent and even in this down year he will have better numbers than Vrana. That counts for something. He's an elite player and an elite shooter. While I don't think it will happen, Vrana could have a problem with his development and Burk might fall out of the league. That first could end up being a nonreactor player. But to get certainty in the player you have of Tarasenko is the real impetus behind this trade. Certainty and consistency are huge pieces. Niskanen is consistent too, but you have to give up good players to get good players. Couldn't get tarasenko for a whole bunch of hopefuls. There would have to be a good piece going back. I know me and Eli disagree on a lot of these issues, but I just felt that the consistency aspect had to be mentioned @Eli


You sound like McPhee explaining Forsberg. Deep breath. Slow down. When a 27 year old falls off a cliff, sometimes they don't come back up.
Jan. 21, 2019 at 6:07 p.m.
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Quoting: Eli
You sound like McPhee explaining Forsberg. Deep breath. Slow down. When a 27 year old falls off a cliff, sometimes they don't come back up.


well I'm not trading for post-prime Martin Erat. I'm trading for a Tarasenko, a truly elite player who is highly skilled who is on a great contract (both cap hit and term). While I think Vrana will do well in the league, its ridiculous to think that he is as much of a sure thing as Tarasenko is.
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Jan. 21, 2019 at 6:10 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: Eli
When a 27 year old falls off a cliff, sometimes they don't come back up.


It's also not just looking at numbers. Its not like saying oh sometimes 27 year olds don't resurge. Idc about their age. I actually look at the specific player and his attributes and assess if that is sustainable. When looking at tarasenko play (not just 27 year olds as a whole) there is no reason to think that his decline will prolong. While it is possible, you actually just have to watch the player instead of just looking at numbers. If you just look at numbers than you ignore attributes of very very good players.
Jan. 21, 2019 at 6:13 p.m.
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Quoting: Eli
Ah, yes, and that STL line was driven by Steen, initially.

You think we're dumb?


In 14-15 Tarasenko played 192:55 with Steen and 839:06 without. He was 77, 37-36-73 +27. He averaged 17:37 and 0.95 points per game.
In 15-16 Tarasenko played 451:57 with Steen and 465:42 without. He was 80, 40-34-74 +7. He averaged 18:38 and 0.93 points per game - arguably (slightly) worse results.
Jan. 21, 2019 at 6:16 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: CD282
In 14-15 Tarasenko played 192:55 with Steen and 839:06 without. He was 77, 37-36-73 +27. He averaged 17:37 and 0.95 points per game.
In 15-16 Tarasenko played 451:57 with Steen and 465:42 without. He was 80, 40-34-74 +7. He averaged 18:38 and 0.93 points per game - arguably (slightly) worse results.

Yup, you're dumb.


although i agree more with you, i'd rather not call him dumb. Let's just debate some hockey and not go after each other's throats. Only person who deserves to be attacked on here would be Peter Chiarelli (or am I just going after the low hanging fruit here)
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Jan. 21, 2019 at 6:16 p.m.
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Quoting: BetterBrianMaclellan
although i agree more with you, i'd rather not call him dumb. Let's just debate some hockey and not go after each other's throats. Only person who deserves to be attacked on here would be Peter Chiarelli (or am I just going after the low hanging fruit here)


Yeah, I'll edit it. But he did ask the question.
Jan. 21, 2019 at 6:17 p.m.
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Quoting: CD282
Yeah, I'll edit it. But he did ask the question.


u right but i appreciate the maturity nonetheless
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Jan. 21, 2019 at 6:26 p.m.
#17
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Quoting: CD282
In 14-15 Tarasenko played 192:55 with Steen and 839:06 without. He was 77, 37-36-73 +27. He averaged 17:37 and 0.95 points per game.
In 15-16 Tarasenko played 451:57 with Steen and 465:42 without. He was 80, 40-34-74 +7. He averaged 18:38 and 0.93 points per game - arguably (slightly) worse results.


Oh. So he mostly wasn't on St. Louis' third line, with all that offense. Big surprise. smile
Jan. 21, 2019 at 6:43 p.m.
#18
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Edited Jan. 21, 2019 at 6:51 p.m.
Quoting: BetterBrianMaclellan
well I'm not trading for post-prime Martin Erat. I'm trading for a Tarasenko, a truly elite player who is highly skilled who is on a great contract (both cap hit and term). While I think Vrana will do well in the league, its ridiculous to think that he is as much of a sure thing as Tarasenko is.


I mean, this year Tarasenko has four more points. Most offensive players do their best between ages 23 and 27. So I think it's really reasonable to expect Tarasenko to continue trending downward.

Erat was on a pace for 45 points (down from his usual 49 or 50) when he was traded to Washington, where and injury, reduced ice time, and worse linemates left him with three points in nine games, the rest of the way.

Forsberg was seventh among forwards in points on a team somewhere in Sweden, and nobody could have predicted he would be a 40 point NHLer any year soon.

Erat was 31, which I guess is older than 27, but Forsberg had yet to set foot in the NHL and that trade lost McPhee is job. The real MacLellan has said it's one he'd like to have back. Including Vrana in a Tarasenko trade means STL has to add. Maybe Kostin? Maybe Kyrou? Not picky, but it's not a one for one. Including Niskanen and Vrana is effing ridiculous.

Love Tarasenko. An all world talent. But having an off year and currenly not significantly better than Vrana. By points/60, Vrana is already ahead, 2.29 to 2.11. By cap hit, Vrana is definitely ahead. I get that it would be cool to put three of the best Russian players on the same line, but for the Capitals to be involved, they'll want to be reasonably sure the trade improves their team. Vrana for Tarasenko, straight up, is a leap of faith. I wouldn't add Geisser to that. And there is no salary dump to be found on Washington, so to make that happen, STL has to make a huge offer of picks and prospects for Holtby, and then if that's acceptable, the Caps can trade Vrana for Tarasenko, and then bring up Samsonov.

Might take Thomas and a couple 2nds?
Jan. 21, 2019 at 8:16 p.m.
#19
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Vrána is essentially untouchable right now. He is the future. Tarasenko would be nice, but we won’t have the assets to trade for him, nor will it make sense with our cap situation. Also have no interest in Fabbri honestly.
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Jan. 21, 2019 at 8:25 p.m.
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reasonably fair deal, maybe Washington throws in an additional 3rd round pick or something.

I am not very familiar with Jensen but that bottom four defense looks very suspect. So the forwards(primarily the first two lines) would have to make up for that weakness. Also looks like it would really be a cap crunch next season with the number of guys would have to resign or replace.
Jan. 22, 2019 at 7:47 a.m.
#21
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Quoting: CD282
In 14-15 Tarasenko played 192:55 with Steen and 839:06 without. He was 77, 37-36-73 +27. He averaged 17:37 and 0.95 points per game.
In 15-16 Tarasenko played 451:57 with Steen and 465:42 without. He was 80, 40-34-74 +7. He averaged 18:38 and 0.93 points per game - arguably (slightly) worse results.


Cough... clears throat... These stats are meaningless as they do not support my off the way position on player values. A guy that has never been great, is not great now, and never will be great, like Burakovsky, is obviously more than enough value to trade for a guy like Tarasenko, who at some point... will be 65 years old and completely useless to the Capitals. How is that not obvious to you?
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Jan. 22, 2019 at 8:05 a.m.
#22
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Vrana is outscoring Tarasenko this year. People claim that when someone gets traded to a good team it makes them score more, but all I'm saying is show me a link on that, and then make Tarasenko four years younger, and we'll talk.
Jan. 22, 2019 at 8:48 a.m.
#23
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Quoting: Eli
Vrana is outscoring Tarasenko this year.


Just about everything you post is utter horse****.

Tarasenko: 47, 16-15-31 0.66 p/g
Vrana: 48, 15-11-26 0.54 p/g

Tarasenko has more goals, more assists and more points in fewer games.
Jan. 22, 2019 at 9:01 a.m.
#24
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Quoting: CD282
Just about everything you post is utter horse****.

Tarasenko: 47, 16-15-31 0.66 p/g
Vrana: 48, 15-11-26 0.54 p/g

Tarasenko has more goals, more assists and more points in fewer games.


Quoting: Eli
I mean, this year Tarasenko has four more points. Most offensive players do their best between ages 23 and 27. So I think it's really reasonable to expect Tarasenko to continue trending downward.

Love Tarasenko. An all world talent. But having an off year and currenly not significantly better than Vrana. By points/60, Vrana is already ahead, 2.29 to 2.11. By cap hit, Vrana is definitely ahead. I get that it would be cool to put three of the best Russian players on the same line, but for the Capitals to be involved, they'll want to be reasonably sure the trade improves their team. Vrana for Tarasenko, straight up, is a leap of faith. I wouldn't add Geisser to that. And there is no salary dump to be found on Washington, so to make that happen, STL has to make a huge offer of picks and prospects for Holtby, and then if that's acceptable, the Caps can trade Vrana for Tarasenko, and then bring up Samsonov.

Might take Thomas and a couple 2nds?
Jan. 22, 2019 at 12:43 p.m.
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Quoting: Eli
Vrana is outscoring Tarasenko this year.


Quoting: CD282
Just about everything you post is utter horse****.

Tarasenko: 47, 16-15-31 0.66 p/g
Vrana: 48, 15-11-26 0.54 p/g

Tarasenko has more goals, more assists and more points in fewer games.


It's probably something meaningful like during even strength time in the 2nd period of home games... Vrana is outscoring Tarasenko this year. Maybe in bars in metro DC Vrana is outscoring Tarasenko this year?

But dude, don't you see the direct correlation between a Vrana/Tarasenko trade and the Forsberg/Erat trade? I mean, they are identical. How do you not see that?
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