Rangers won't trade Kreider within the division.

Wont get that for Panarin unless he agrees to re-sign

Of course they will. Gordon has stated that his job is to get as much as possible for his assets. If Columbus outbids everyone else, they get him

So Panarin and Kreider have the same value? sure....let’s go with that.

If one guy is stating he won't sign with anyone till free agency and the other is locked up. Yeah....kinda.

Why would any team pay anything else than a rental price for a true rental, especially when they know 100% there isn't a guaranteed chance at resigning him before the July 1st deadline? Would any team pay the asking price for Panarin then? Nope.

Eh c'mon McPhee doesn't need all those picks anyway, may as well have some fun with them.

Happens all the time at the deadline. Teams overpay for UfA to be knowing they won’t be re-signing him for a playoff boost. But not the point.

Anyway:

But reality for Jax is they should be working a deal with Panthers. They are on AP’s short list but will likely lose out to Rangers via free agency. However a trade for him while clearing some cap space in the process, signing him to an extension, and keeping CBJ competetive this year makes sense for both teams.

No one said anything about it not being an over payment regardless. Just that it wouldn't be full value knowing he won't resign. There's also a difference between overpaying for Paul Gaustad and over paying for Panarin. One won't leave your team COMPLETLY void of younng assets while the other would.

Kreider isn't a better player than Panarin but due to Panarin's contract uncertainty, no one is going to give CLB full value for him until they know he would sign.

Never say never, it does and has happened. Depends on the team, situation, and philosphy. It would not be smart. But teams do dumb things. I mean that is the same price they payed for Tatar last year. That was dumb. I know, was nott an UFA to be, still dumb. Happens. Teams take risks.

Still, not the point.

Well I guess its important to lay down what it is exactly we think is true value then? IMHO true value for Panarin with no guarantee of being resigned is:

Late 1st
Late 2nd
Quality but not top prospect. (Could be a former 1st rounder but not someone who is everyones top 50 prospect list necessarily.)
Maybe a young roster player but not a stud by any imagination.


As for overpaying, Vegas overpaid for Tatar no doubt, but they also gave extremely late picks in every round and Tatar was signed for 3 more years after that playoff. There is certainty there. With Panarin there is no certainty.

So my point is even though Panarin is clearly better than Krieder, because Kreider is signed to a reasonable contract for longer which is gives the team a lot more certainty. that helps bridge the gap in value between the two players. IMO

Then there was the whole Tatar isn’t really that good and was struggling last year. Sometimes having term is not an asset.

Kreider only has 1 more year. Not like it’s 5 years v 1. Sure it helps knowing that it’s not just a couple months. But without an extension Kreider will be in the same boat next year. And 1 year is not enough to even out the trade value between the 2.

I’m not saying it was a good deal or bad deal either way. Just saying the value is not the same. If CBJ was trading Panarin to NYR today would they take Kreider straight up? Doubt it.

I think they would. Same result on CBJ end as the deal proposed here. Just doesn't make sense from NYR perspective...IF (maybe a big IF?) they believe they have the inside track on signing Panarin in July. The return for Kreider above maximizes their assets at the end of the day if they believe they are Panarin's final destination regardless.

I don't think anyone should realistically argue Kreider being better than Tatar. Both have very similar numbers and are the same age.

As for the contract status, yeah I thought he had another year after that one as well. Regardless, it does give the host team a ton of time to get a new contract worked up. They could have him signed to an extension by the time Panarin hits the UFA market but I digress.

If they were trading Panarin to NYR, would the Rangers bend over backwards at all for him? They aren't a playoff team and they have potentially the best chances of signing him in the offseason based on his interest other than $$. If you're Gorton is there any reason to trade for him now?

I don't think the value can be equated the same to every team, that's my point. If you are Vegas, why pay a stupid price. You are almost certainly not going to resign him. If you are NYR, why even go after him now and lose any assets?

Plus i took into consideration the draft picks. Vegas is almost locked to make the playoffs. Columbus after trading Bob and Panarin may not be. they are hanging by a thread at the moment. Take away their two best players and I think you might see them fall out. So the picks used in the above aren't fair to begin with IMO. For the value to be fair, they'd both be traded for the same picks. (Vegas's 1st)

I don’t think the Rangers would try to trade for him. I’m sure they believe they are very likely to sign him in the offseason. Unless another team like Fla starts poking around and talking extension then they will have a choice to make. This scenario above makes perfect sense for Ranger. 3 picks for Kreider then sign Panarin to replace him. It’s ideal for them.

But i don’t believe if they did open talks today between the 2 that Jax would take Kreider straight up unless that was the best offer out there. Most team will shy away knowing the situation so they are certainly limited to get full value. However if it’s one of the teams that are on his short list, and the Rangers are, the Jax are going to assume they will re-sign him and not give them a discount.

Still....in a vacuum...half year of Panarin has more trade value than year and half of Kreider. Which was my point.

Not sure it does though, that's my point. If you are Vegas, you are definitely not resigning Panarin. If you are Columbus, there is a good chance you should be able to get Kreider resigned. See the difference?

That's why is said not all teams are equal. If You are NYR and you have Panarin, you probably feel good about your odds, at least much better than most. if you are not one of the teams willing to give him top dollar and is not a city you think he'd want to sign with, how valuable is he to you for one playoff? Tampa Bay has been one of the best if not best teams in the league the past decade and they have yet to be able to crack the final step. Washington only up until last year. San Jose conditioned their 1st with Evander Kane to only if he resigns. More teams are following suit.

Rolling the dice on what could be a two 1sts, a top prospect and a young roster asset etc, is dangerous in an NHL with so much parody. You need to be good for more than one year in a row. not just one playoff. As a result the whole philosophy of throwing all your eggs in one basket has been on a decline for a while now. They still show up from time to time but never of the magnitude that Panarin, In a vacuum, is worth. There's a difference between wasting one late 1st rounder on a rental and wasting a large chunk of your prospect and draft pick pool on a rental.

Once again, this also comes down what you think full value is for Panarin as a rental. We might be debating an extra 2nd rounder in difference to which I say fine. That isn't what I interpreted as what i thought you meant by it'd cost more.