Both are significant downgrades for TB and EDM

Yeah I wouldn't trade McDavid or Kucherov for any player in the league one for one. Best two players in the league in my opinion.

Two best players in the world for two TOP15 players?

No deal

McDavid greater then Matthews, And Kucherov greater then Marner. Yeah both Edmonton and Tampa easily decline.

Just wondering how many of you think we get them signed for 9m and 11.5m respectively....

My sentiments exactly.

I don't know if there are many people that would do Kucherov for Matthews.

My guess is Matthews signs 11x5 and Marner signs 9,85x8.

And that is the mistake that a lot of Toronto fans are making. You can't compare what Matthews should sign based on McDavid entirely without taking into consideration the cap increase. Example...
McDavid is rated a perfect 10 as all players are measured against the best. Let's say Matthews would be a 9. If both players sign a contract in the same year, then Matthews should be 90% of McDavid's contract equaling $11.25M. Makes sense. However, contract prices are given against a percentage of the total cap hit, and since the cap goes up 4.5%, then Matthews should get a raise as such which would bring his $11.25M number to $11.75M.

Now we can all probably agree these numbers aren't perfect as it's debatable on a scale of 10 with McDavid being the benchmark where Matthews actually lands, albeit a 9.25 or 8.75 There are also lots of other factors that come into play of course, but all things being equal, this is a very simplistic way that baseline logic to start negotiating against works.

With Kucherov, you have to factor in the Florida income tax advantage in addition to the raise in cap. The income tax advantage in Florida, ROUGHLY on a $9.5M a year contract comes out to $1M meaning his contract in Toronto would have been $10.5M of equal money. Then add the cap inflation and it's equal to roughly $11M at a cap of $83M. If Marner is 9.25 and Kucherov is a 10, Marner is worth roughly 92.5% of that or $10.175M a year.

Whenever there is a cap increase since the time a benchmark contract like McDavid's is signed, you can't ignore that inflation when signing a player after a increase. And in the exception of a few states like Florida, you can't ignore the income tax implications.

Therefore, saying Matthews is not worth $12.5M this summer just because McDavid signed a $12.5M last summer is flawed logic. Some of you get this, many fail to understand this.

The question is, do you think Matthews is 90% of McDavid and is Marner 92.5% of Kucherov not shooting in the dark with little logic.

I tend to believe those are very fair ratings and therefore, Marner is worth $10.175M a year x 8 years and Matthews is worth $11.75M a year x 8 years. Now whether hometown discounts or shorter terms are given are debatable but those numbers are supported as a baseline with sound logic to support them.

Well you tried to back pedal but pretty much came in with my numbers, you can’t have it both ways. If kucherov takes a discount on taxes than so does marner for endorsements and the money made in endorsements outways the taxes by triple. Does that mean we get to sign marner for less? No of course not. Ir’s Also quite funny how we don’t hear about Vegas, Dallas and Nashville it’s always just Florida. Stevey got people to buy in to the plan and signed some good contracts. Maybe the leafs can do that to... maybe not. Either way kucherov contract certainly sets an upper limit on marner. But to get that you have to agree that they are equal players. I love marner but he’s not kucherov. Just like I love having Matthews.... but he isn’t Mcdavid.

Oh and by the way, marner is earning about 3m on endorsements... so far...

Well said and supported. Inflation and tax play a factor but a small one in relation to productivity.

I like the benchmark concept but believe if we're going to assign values, it should at least be based on production. McDavid's production is so far above everyone but Kucherov, I believe the gap between he and Matthews is far greater than Leaf fans believe, and the salary difference should be as well.

Let's ignore the 106 more points scored and use points per game, I added stats in the description for the thread, Matthews puts up 74% of what McDavid does per game, is it really fair to give Matthews a 9 out if 10 rating?

They already have some great value contracts, no reason to think it won't continue.

It’s just funny, Matthews ppg production is 79% of Mcdavid’s and he certainly doesn’t have the trophies.... but let’s base mathews on Mcdavid and call him 90%... because... reasons.

So mathews at 79% of Mcdavid puts him at 9.96m + 438k inflation on cap... sweet, by @Chihawk formula we should get Matthews at 10.4m. And that isn’t even counting for the missing hart, art ross, ted Lindsay trophies...

How am I backpeddling...reread everything I said....there is no backpeddling. It's pretty clearly stated; compare Matthews to McDavid, then you factor in cap increases, inflation, etc.

And here you go again not knowing what you're talking about about taxes as it relates to endorsements or bonuses. And yes, all these rules apply to each state....Florida has a 0% income tax rate and no recapture penalties for any income. Vegas is the same. Texas is the same....no owners are pulling the wool over the leagues eyes....it's not a conspiracy just simple understanding of tax laws. Talk to Juice...he knows.

I also don't see anywhere in the news reporting Marner makes $3M in endorsements. JT makes $1.7M, Crosby $4.5M. Only the top 6 or 7 players in the NHL make over $1M a year in endorsements...it's pretty rare.

First of all, your #1 error is you're basing PURELY on points....and unlike most fans, GM's and coaches don't purely look at points they also look at team value, market availability, injuries, etc.

But let's go ahead and go with what you're saying even though I believe Matthews is 90% the player McDavid is. $12.5M x 79% = $9.875M......Simple math, you can't even get that right jamie LOL!!! $9.875M x 4.5% (cap increase) = $10.319M That's the number. If you think Matthews is 79% of McDavid, $10,319,375 is the exact contract price for 8 years Matthews should get according to your value of Matthews.

I think Matthews is 90% of the value to the team of McDavid and again it goes beyond points. At 90% that number is $11.75M. We can disagree on what his value in comparison to McDavid is on a percentage scale but I promise you it's higher then 79% and may or may not be 90%, but the numbers at the end of the day don't lie when you use some common sense to support an argument...and in your case correct math LOL

Just wondering where you get 90% from? We are talking about a player that has never put up 70 points in a season... if you want to talk about team value Mcdavid is the oilers. He puts the team on his back and drags them through the season, Matthews was injured this season and during that stretch the team did just fine. I’m just not seeing the 90%. If matthews played an entire season the way he came out of the gates this year you may have an argument. He is streaky.

I’m not advocating that Matthews gets 10.4m on Ann 8 year deal but if you want to go by the numbers that is his worth. But players are people. Matthews initial ask can not be higher than 13m, which is Mcdavid plus inflation. I’m sure dubas starts at 10m that’s how I come to 11.5m. Lot of conjecture out there on term so it’s hard to say. But if Matthews deal is over a base of 12mX 8 years then the leafs have over paid another player and it will hurt them in the immediate future. After a few years the cap hit will be fair.

Didn’t we just go through this whole nylander is worth draisaitl’s 8.5m do people learn nothing?

.978 ÷ 1.319 = .74% not 79%. 5% is a lot.

It's not all about production but it is the main component to salary negotiations.

I believe the comparisons to McDavid are doing McDavid a disservice by not appreciating how good he has really been. Not to mention the other NINE centers that have outscored Matthews, per game, over the same time period.

The blue koolaid has adverse effects on math skills and proximity bias.

I wish they'd announce an extension so one side of this debate can look foolish and we can put it to bed altogether.

Personally, I wouldn't give him a penny over Eichel's deal full term.

I din’t Mind debating the idea. All I can do is give my opinion. If mathews signs an 11.5m 8 year deal I can’t really say “ha! I was right” there are too many complexities invokved in negotiations and too much info we don’t have. All I can say is that I think it’s a fair deal. I can’t say that dubas and Mathews are both wrong if he signs for 13m... just that I think it’s not a fair deal.

As for my math skills my memory just isn’t as great as it used to be. I plugged in all the numbers one after another and tricked myself into thinking I had them memorized lol.

Has anyone ever walked into their manager's office to ask for a raise?

Does the conversation go....

'co-worker A makes $x and co-worker B makes $y...so I want $z'

or does it go....

"I feel I'm worth and deserve $x"

Why does everyone on here insist on spreadsheet negotiations?

And yes...state taxes....combined with Kucherov wanting to stay in Tampa and play for a top contending team...is why he signed for $9.5 instead of $11.5. Can anyone question that, if he hit UFA...there wouldn't be 15+ teams willing to give him $11.5m? Stamkos was getting $10-11m offers when he did his little free agent road show but stayed in Tampa for similar reasons. It's fact that Edmonton offered McDavid even more money and Connor himself asked for a lower amount.

Someone show me a statistic that shows Toronto hockey players earn higher endorsement cheques than the other superstars in the league.

On an 8 year term...could Matthews accept $10.5m as a fair number that helps the team add more pieces? Yes...he could accept that

Could he demand $14m on an 8 year term. Absolutely. His agent could say he wants the max % of the cap and doesn't need any friggin' reason why he's asking for it.

Does any number in between make sense? Yes....and it doesn't have to do anything with statistical comparisons...it could play a role, for sure...but it could have absolutely 0 impact in negotiations.

Let's face it...there's clearly different opinions on here as to what he's "WORTH....guess what...our opinions and statistical comparison ultimately don't mean Jack-all. Eventually either the pessimists or the optimists will ultimately claim bragging rights....and guess what...even when the contracts are signed our predictions today as to why they might sign for that number may have had very little to do with why each side agreed on it.

So let's just back off and give it a rest with calling people out because you think they're too high or too low in their prediction....there's very reasonable arguments on both ends of the spectrum whether you agree with them or not.

In a general sense, a lot of what you say is true. It's actually quite funny to think that a player had more wherewithal than his GM when it came to writing his own cheque. No wonder that GM got canned.

There are varying degrees of knowledge and involvement behind the opinions found on here and the bottom line is this. It is literally a spreadsheet website and the numbers involved motivate everything from fantasy sports to sports betting to salary negotiations. To ignore the numbers is to ignore why the Armchair function exists in the first place, to play with the players and their corresponding numbers.

Personally, I enjoy a constructive debate and use the numbers as evidence to support my opinion. Many don't. Many are here just to play around. There will always be a range of opinions and in the Leaf atmosphere, there will be more passion that ultimately seems to show up in a negative way. That won't change. I'm not a fan of the negativity but it's out of my control.

Oh don't get me wrong...I love this website and the knowledge a lot of people have on here...I have no problem with (and certainly encourage) people to back their concepts up with analytics.

The thing that bothers me the most are the posters who claim the intellectual high ground because of their research...claiming they clearly know better. You're on here a lot so you would know....how many times do ACGM teams get bashed because the re-signing numbers are 'absurd'...or you read 'there's no chance he signs for less than...." ?

I shake my head anytime I see the player comparisons come out and someone takes the position that there's no way the Leafs go above this number....or the whining that the Leafs for some reason have to pay way more than any other team to re-sign their guys.

Each year with every new cap ceiling and every new batch of UFA/RFA signings is a new case study. The way players rank their priorities as to lifestyle, salary, family, chance to win, legacy, etc, etc. all play a role in how flexible they are in negotiations. A team's financial strength, cap space, desire to win, chances to win, rebuilding or building a contender, ownership influence, internal replacement options, etc. etc all play a role in how flexible the organization will be in negotiations. State income taxes, cost of living, uprooting families, chemistry with linemates...are all variables that could affect a player's willingness to accept less in order to stay where he is

The debating is great...it's what I love most about this forum as there's a lot of great people to discuss hockey with....but for me it's simply the difference of sharing opinions and being willing to accept the fact that someone's differing opinion also has validity vs those who claim they are right and everyone is absurd if they don't agree.

This, I like. This is what brings me back for more. An outlook many could learn from but not enough will.

Knowledge and an open mind is a powerful thing. Even here.

Wow! Look at that $11.6M a year....LOL...too funny all you guys thinking he would sign for less.

Yup, still scratching my head on this one. Money is good but the term is short.