5 Years for Matthews 6 for Marner

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Created by: tomkinoo

Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Jan. 31, 2019

Published: Jan. 31, 2019

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Steven Stamkos. All players that did 5 year deals, and I think it worked out financially for all of them...

Crosby - 8.7 AVV - 17.30 % of Cap
Malkin - 8.7 AVV - 15.34 %
Toews - 6.3 AVV - 11.09 %
Kane - 6.3 AVV - 11.09 %
Stamkos - 7.5 AVV - 11.66 %

Average percentage of cap here is 13.296, With a 83 Mil Cap that would put Matthews at 11.06 Mil

Average without Crosby 12.295, Matthews 10.2 Mil. I think this makes more sense, Crosby is one of a kind

For Marner I think we have to convince him for 6 years. You wouldn't wan't Nylander, Marner, Matthews all coming up at the same time, with Tavares still on the books

Nylander - 8.75 % of the cap (excluding first year)
Gaudreau - 9.25
Pastrnak - 8.89

Not going to do an average for this one because I think Marner has outperformed all of these players on his ELC. 10.25% is probably fair which would give him a 8.507 Mil AVV

** I know these are just estimations still, not saying I've cracked the code for contract numbers. I'm just trying to make a more educated estimate

I think it's pretty obvious at this point we can't afford doing 8 year deals for both of them. At least on of them has to do a 5 or 6 year deal

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Matthews, Auston	5	$10,200,000
Marner, Mitchell	6	$8,507,000
Kapanen, Kasperi	2	$3,500,000
Johnsson, Andreas	2	$1,800,000
Ozhiganov, Igor	2	$1,000,000
Sparks, Garret	2	$1,000,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Ennis, Tyler		2	$1,000,000

CREATED		YEARS	CAP HIT
Scratch, Filler		1	$700,000

Trades

TOR

2019 3rd round pick (NYI)

Additional Details:

Most likely a 4th after this downturn of a year

EDM

Brown, Connor

Additional Details:

Find a team that'd be interested in Brown

Buyouts

Mikhail Grabovski: $0

Retained Salary Transactions

Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2019
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$83,000,000	$77,325,199	$0	$132,500	$5,674,801

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Johnsson, Andreas $1,800,000$1,800,000 LW, RW UFA - 4	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 6	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 5
Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 2	Matthews, Auston $10,200,000$10,200,000 C UFA - 5	Marner, Mitchell $8,507,000$8,507,000 RW UFA - 6
Marleau, Patrick $700,000$700,000 LW, C UFA - 1	Kadri, Nazem $4,500,000$4,500,000 C M-NTC UFA - 3	Kapanen, Kasperi $3,500,000$3,500,000 RW UFA - 3
Ennis, Tyler $1,000,000$1,000,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Gauthier, Frédérik $675,000$675,000 C UFA - 1	Moore, Trevor $775,000$775,000 LW, RW UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD UFA - 3	Muzzin, Jake $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD UFA - 1	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Dermott, Travis $863,333$863,333 LD/RD UFA - 1	Zaitsev, Nikita $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 5
Rosén, Calle $750,000$750,000 LD UFA - 2		Sparks, Garret $1,000,000$1,000,000 G UFA - 1
	Ozhiganov, Igor $1,000,000$1,000,000 RD UFA

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Holl, Justin $675,000$675,000 RD UFA - 1		Horton, Nathan $5,300,000$5,300,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1
Marchment, Mason $767,500$767,500 ($132,500$132K) LW, RW UFA - 1
Scratch, Filler $700,000$700,000

Jan. 31, 2019 at 2:31 p.m.

nchest

Joined: Jan. 2019

Posts: 912

Likes: 266

Even on a 5-6 year deal it has already been said Matthews around 11.5 versus the 13.5 on an 8 and Marner likely still gets $9 per year. They are going to have to move Marleau or Zaitsev to get under the cap.

Jan. 31, 2019 at 2:32 p.m.

mhockey91

Joined: Jun. 2015

Posts: 15,921

Likes: 6,980

Crazy how sid never asked for a cap hit increase after his initial 5 year deal

Jetman and tomkinoo liked this.

Jan. 31, 2019 at 2:34 p.m.

Jetman

Jetsfan

Joined: Sep. 2017

Posts: 7,983

Likes: 2,589

Quoting: mhockey91

Crazy how sid never asked for a cap hit increase after his initial 5 year deal

Cuz he knew that to win the SC, him and Malkin couldn't have big cap hits....ie-Wheeler and Scheifele

mhockey91 liked this.

Jan. 31, 2019 at 2:35 p.m.

Lunboxer

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 39

Likes: 3

I agree with the Matthews contract. I think that's a fair number for both sides on a 5 year deal.

I don't agree with the Marner contract.

Kane and Marner are virtually identical (position, points per game, similar play style). Why would Marner take less cap % than Kane and give up 1 UFA year?

Jan. 31, 2019 at 2:37 p.m.

Random2152

Just Keep Swimming

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 9,207

Likes: 5,572

I could live with Matthews at that number if it was 7 years long. You could convince me for 6 ( I think 6 years is 9.5 which gets moved to 9.34 to have 34 in the number which is only 500-660k less), but for 5 years that is just too much aav. Remember, Eichel got 8@10
Will have to see though.

On Marner, you could get 7-8 years for just a touch more, as Kucherov is the aav cap for him, so it might as well be done.

Jan. 31, 2019 at 2:40 p.m.

Lunboxer

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 39

Likes: 3

Quoting: Random2152

You realize Marner's camp is saying they deserve as much as Matthews, right?

Good luck getting him for a "touch more" than 8.5 million at 7-8 years.

Jan. 31, 2019 at 2:41 p.m.

Random2152

Just Keep Swimming

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 9,207

Likes: 5,572

Quoting: Lunboxer

You realize Marner's camp is saying they deserve as much as Matthews, right?

Good luck getting him for a "touch more" than 8.5 million at 7-8 years.

Yeah, but he doesn't deserve that, and you don't just go an accept what their camp wants.
Nylander wanted 8.5 remember.

CD282 liked this.

Jan. 31, 2019 at 2:43 p.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,438

Likes: 22,639

Quoting: mhockey91

Crazy how sid never asked for a cap hit increase after his initial 5 year deal

Apparently Crosby's net worth is about 150m. So leaving Pittsburg for a few extra dollars would probably would have hurt him his long term wealth and legacy.
One reason, I think hometown Marner might like an 8 term deal for even a hometown discount. He has seen that non winning good players like Sundin, Clark, Gilmour and Clarke so revered in Toronto...and getting a lot of financial benefits being an ex Leaf. Heck any Leaf who won the Cups in 60s...still get a ton of accolades, some financial all these years later.
Now I see Matthews wanting to cement a legacy as great player on a good maybe great Leaf time for the next few years. But I think his next destination in five years or so is New York or LA.

mhockey91 liked this.

Jan. 31, 2019 at 2:44 p.m.

Propeller09

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 2,851

Likes: 639

I think something is off with your math. Pastrnak is making less than Nylander so his cap% can't be higher.

I assume you did Pastrnak againt 79m and Nylander 83m?

Jan. 31, 2019 at 2:45 p.m.

#10

Lunboxer

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 39

Likes: 3

Quoting: Random2152

Yeah, but he doesn't deserve that, and you don't just go an accept what their camp wants.
Nylander wanted 8.5 remember.

I agree that he doesn't deserve as much as Matthews.

But if his ask is 13 million at 8 years (that's how much Matthews wants, therefore Marner wants the same), why would he take 9 million instead?

Matthews and Marner have more leverage than Nylander. The two negotiations are very different.

The chance of an offersheet is much more likely for Marner and Matthews.

No one was willing to give up 4 1st rounders for Nylander. I can guarantee there are teams out there who would give up 4 1st rounders for Matthews or Marner.

Jan. 31, 2019 at 2:46 p.m.

#11

PrimeDatsyuk

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 1,528

Likes: 491

How about trading Zaitsev to get rid of that contract to a team that could be interested in him, i.e the islanders, then give that money to Auston and Mitch.

Jan. 31, 2019 at 2:50 p.m.

#12

GenXHockey

Formerly Jamiepo

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 21,157

Likes: 10,700

Quoting: Lunboxer

Kane got 10.2% on a 5 year deal. That marner deal seems about right.

Jan. 31, 2019 at 2:50 p.m.

#13

Random2152

Just Keep Swimming

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 9,207

Likes: 5,572

Quoting: Lunboxer

I agree that he doesn't deserve as much as Matthews.

But if his ask is 13 million at 8 years (that's how much Matthews wants), why would he take 9 million instead?

Matthews and Marner have more leverage than Nylander. The two negotiations are very different.

The chance of an offersheet is much more likely for Marner and Matthews.

No one was willing to give up 4 1st rounders for Nylander. I can guarantee there are teams out there who would give up 4 1st rounders for Matthews or Marner.

Yeah, but offer sheets dont happen because no one benefits. It starts an economic war between the two teams, and raises the price for other RFA's for the rest, so they never get used under the MAD principle. They aren't a legitimate factor to consider.

Again, you dont just cave into Matthews demands. I would ask for that much if I were him too, the whole point is that they expect to get much less. Ask for 8@13, hope to settle for 6@9-10 or 7-8@11-12 is a normal strategy for negotiations. You don't base another guys contract off what the 1st guy wants, but what the 1st guy gets. If Matthews signs before Marner, getting Matthews around 6@9.5 (6@9.34 if he wants 34 and a pseudo discount), That should act as the cap for a Marner 8 year deal, which can be moved down a notch due to negotiation tactics.
Remember, RFA's dont have any power coming off their ELC. Thank Betman and the horribly constructed offer sheet system for that.

Jan. 31, 2019 at 2:52 p.m.

#14

Lunboxer

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 39

Likes: 3

Quoting: Jamiepo

Kane got 10.2% on a 5 year deal. That marner deal seems about right.

No, he got 11.09%.

Jan. 31, 2019 at 2:58 p.m.

#15

Fignn

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 808

Likes: 125

trade Kap get a first rounder replenish the picks

Jan. 31, 2019 at 2:59 p.m.

#16

GenXHockey

Formerly Jamiepo

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 21,157

Likes: 10,700

Quoting: Lunboxer

No, he got 11.09%.

Nope, when he signed it was 11.09, cap was 59.4m when the contract actually started so it was 10.2%. It’s just s flaw of cap friendly showing cap hit on signing date. They should really give both.

If you want to go with 11.09 than you have to use 79.5m as cap. So 8.82m

Jan. 31, 2019 at 3:02 p.m.

#17

tydini11

Re-sign Bo

Joined: Dec. 2018

Posts: 974

Likes: 364

I think I grew up with that Filler Scratch guy lol. Kids used to make fun of him because of his name

tomkinoo liked this.

Jan. 31, 2019 at 3:20 p.m.

#18

OilersFan77

Joined: Jan. 2018

Posts: 42

Likes: 7

Edited Jan. 31, 2019 at 3:34 p.m.

Sorry Leafs fans, if you think you're getting Marner on a deal worth less than 10m you're dreaming. The JT signing really screwed you guys in terms of team precedent. Unless Marner and/or Matthews (ha) are massively ftb then they're both getting over 10m. In terms of total points per 60, Matthews has 3.15, JT has 3.13, and Marner has 3.1. The drop off after that is quite big with Johnsson (2.33) and Kapanen (2.14) being the next two on the list. With that in mind, JT becomes a middle ground between Matthews and Marner where Matthews gets a shade more than JT and Marner gets a shade less than JT. Like I said, maybe Marner is a huge beauty who will take a discount but even then he's easily a 9m player (especially if Nylander is nearly a 7m player).

I get that the point is fewer years = less money now, but even so I just can't see how you get Matthews on a deal for less than 10m or Marner for anything below 9m.

Jan. 31, 2019 at 3:47 p.m.

#19

tatatavares

Big John T

Joined: Sep. 2018

Posts: 468

Likes: 84

Interesting and fair breakdown.

It all feels premature, and specifically I don't think there is any contract negotiation in the month before the trade deadline.

Dubas can sell the agents on Matthews becoming the "face of the NHL" by asking the media to put that out there.
Agents can stoke the flames by giving scoops to the media that the price has gone up.
If a deal was close, it'd be signed before Dubas set off the trade deadline frenzy.

The one thing Dubas can do to lower the prices of Matthews and Marner is giving them a taste of something exclusive, playoff success.

TOR is rumored to be hunting for a top minute RHD alongside TBL, NYI, PIT, COL, VGK, (and EDM lol)
TBL, PIT, and VGK are serious buyers

This is going to be the most exciting trade deadline in a decade

Jan. 31, 2019 at 4:02 p.m.

#20

BCAPP

Joined: May 2015

Posts: 9,381

Likes: 3,695

Quoting: OilersFan77

RFA vs UFA. Center vs winger. No RFA winger this CBA has gotten over 9.5 million. No non-arbitration eligible RFA winger this CBA has gotten over 7.5 million. The only RFA winger to get over either of those totals with a salary cap in existence was Ovechkin and he is in his own league.

tomkinoo liked this.

Jan. 31, 2019 at 4:08 p.m.

#21

BCAPP

Joined: May 2015

Posts: 9,381

Likes: 3,695

Quoting: Lunboxer

This is simply untrue. Kane outproduced Marner his first two years, and while his points and goals were lower in total than Marner's predicted his place in the league was roughly the same. Kane also entered the league in his first post draft year (Marner did not) and won the calder as rookie of the year. He also did not have the benefit of playing with a player anywhere as good as John Tavares.

I do agree with many that Marner is making Tavares better, but I don't know why many don't seem to recognize that the reverse is true too. Marner's PPG over his three seasons are 0.79, 0.84, 1.27.

Over the last 5 years Tavares is 2nd in goals and 6th in points (http://hkref.com/tiny/9RKMA). He is significantly better than anyone Kane played with

tomkinoo liked this.

Feb. 1, 2019 at 8:53 p.m.

#22

OilersFan77

Joined: Jan. 2018

Posts: 42

Likes: 7

Quoting: BCAPP

How many Marner calibre wingers, who is a natural centre, have been signed this CBA? I can only think of a couple. Kucherov, who is a huge beauty for taking an extremely team friendly deal (Marner might do this but unlikely given his camps statements regarding Matthews). Pastrnak is the other who took what he did largely because of a lower team precedent, he didn't want to take much more because his linemate had recently taken a deal for less and didn't want to seem like a douche. Team situation and team precedents are far more important than other comparisons, Marners only comparables right now are Nylander and JT, one is almost a 7m player who's doing nothing and the other is a new guy making 11m and barely doing more than him. Marner will get between 9m and 10m as is only fair. Either from the Leafs or from an offer sheet which is a reality. There was a report today that teams are preparing to offer sheet Marner. Perhaps that's unfounded, but if I'm a GM looking for a franchise player then I'm looking at Marner. Times have changed and the Leafs, barring a miracle, are going to feel the hurt come this offseason.

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