Lol if Marner signs for $8,5M then TOR just keeps him.

TOR won't even consider moving him unless he's not signing under +$11M per year.

Only way Dallas gets him is likely by offer sheet, and if we trade for him, 100% Lindell and Faksa + 1st is the starting point of the deal

8.5 is like 11 in Dallas

Doesn't really matter. The cap and the cap percentage is same in both places.

There are ways to hide the money so that the taxes are almost irrelevant. Tat has been reported on many times.

Quality>Quantity
The Stars would have to give up Heiskanen for Marner. (1for1)

reported falsely

A team won’t give up their star dman for the next 20 years when they can likely get him for cheaper or even offer sheet him

Austin Matthews bonus money is being taxed at 15% (total) if he lives in Canada. Less if the USA.

For comparison, the lowest Canadian federal tax bracket is 15%.

What you just posted is 100% false.
https://theathletic.com/411211/2018/06/27/why-taxes-shouldnt-prevent-john-tavares-or-any-free-agent-from-signing-with-a-canadian-team/

“I can make it so signing in Montreal is the same as signing in Texas,” an agent told The Athletic.

No it hasn’t

It matters to the guy who’s getting the money

See my above post in response to juice

If you're going to spout off at least choose your words wisely. Being paid in bonus vs salary and having associated tax savings is very different from saying you can hide money.

So is saying that you were calling for an $11.5m cap hit for Matthews everywhere on this site for a year and now saying you were right and only got the term wrong.

You make black and white comments in the present and then change them to grey once the facts come out

You can hide the money. You can also find other loop holes. I used the Matthews contract because it was just signed as an example. That what this proved.

And on the Matthews deal, most everyone thought he'd be getting ~this AAV with a few more years. In the roster construction, the AAV is important, not the term. So I was right on the AAV. Most just thought Matthews would do what McDavid and Eichel did.

So how is it inaccurate anything that I said exactly?
I was right in the AAV, I just expected this AAV to come with a longer term. I was wrong on the contract as a whole, the term to be specific, that doesn't mean saying he gets 11-11.5 was wrong.


How is it changing it to grey? I'm saying I was partially right, which means I was partially wrong. That is pretty clear no?

No. It really isn't....considering a guy like Bob MacKenzie said that for them to settle on the $11.5m for 5 years means that they were looking at $13-$14m on a 7- 8 year term. Assuming buying 3 more years of UFA at the same price is 'partially right' is, honestly, giving yourself way more credit than you deserve....especially when just a couple of days ago you were saying he would be at $10m or below on a 5-6 year term. If you're willing to give yourself a small 'win' for being within $1.6m of the actual AAV then you can't spout off at people who are guessing $1.6m higher than what marner might get.

And copying and pasting the same rant about Eichel vs Matthews and, despite getting valid responses, still pleading that they should be compared to each other and begging for people to continue to explain why....

look..you'll get a lot better reactions on here if you're willing to share your opinions as well as accept someone else's. You can't throw stats and numbers at someone and claim the intellectual high ground if you're going to completely ignore how business negotiations actually take place.

My entire occupation in real life is negotiating financial compensation. 99% of the time there's a deal to be had by understanding what the other party values most and angling your pitch to them that focuses on them getting what they want most...not by using statistics to prove why they should just accept your number.

I think the problem is I'm looking at this differently than you. I see it from a roster construction stand point, where the AAV is what matters, where you seem to see it from a contractual stand point where everything fluctuates. I see that the rosters I have been building Around am at 11.34 as being close to having to build it around am @11.634aav. you seem to be saying that none of that matters.

Valid responses? Like what? Watch the games?
I've yet to see one valid response to the Matthews vs Eichel stats. I even asked specifically for the flaw, the best I got was the aforementioned watch the games, and to compare to McDavid. I then posted McDavid stats with that as well showing he is in another league, and never got a response back. So please, I am asking. Why was Eichel not comparable when they are so similar in most stats?

In terms of accepting other ideas, I have. All the time. Hell my Mitch number has been creeping up all year (by ~2.5aav as of now). What I don't accept is when someone says "x is true" and won't say why, or dismiss my response with the actual numbers as a copy pasted rant.

Interesting perspective. So what did Matthews value here?

If you're looking at it differently...that's fine...then don't make posts saying "at 5 yrs he's under $10m"...just say..."I think his AAV ends up being $x on whatever term they can both agree on"

I've been explaining to you...and a lot of other people...that comparing players stats/numbers doesn't come up in negotiations...it's not even ALLOWED in arbitration hearings. So my answer to you is...you can't rely on a statistical comparison to predict the outcome of a negotation. If you want to use it to compare which player is worth more...for a subjective point of view...sure. But I think it's been proven that is has no bearing on what this current crop of RFAs is willing to sign for.

I agree...anyone claiming a prediction or opinion as fact is generally out of their depth unless they are in the room during negotiations.

Okay, I get that you think this, but why does literally every insider and any who has ever done this in the NHL say that comparables matter? Hell they literally said Matthews was using McDavid as a comparable.

I can almost promise you they didn't talk to matthews or his agent and were told that he want's mcdavid level money.

Why did Matthews flat out laugh at MacKenzie, Dreger, Reda and Lebrun and told them they have no idea what actually went down in negotiations?

You are putting way to much stock in what insiders say. Even now...you hear all these guys talking about what other additions the leafs should make at the deadline but I think Mike Johnson was the only one who's mentioned performance bonuses and making sure they leave enough room to pay for those.

Honestly...they're doing what you're doing...taking the numbers they are hearing in negotiations and finding a way to explain them...and prior to info being leaked to them..they're making predictions based on comparisons and warning us that these are just predictions. I think the media puts more emphasis on tangible information like stats and comparisons because they can explain that to the public. But from the people I've talked with in the industry + listening to these guys talk after the fact...they never mention league-wide comparisons as an aspect to negotiations

Offer sheet would be the better route that wouldn't cost you a haul. Plus, 8.5 for Marner LOLOLOLOLOL

You make a lot of good points! The thing that I don't understand is Marner is leading this team in scoring and he looks around the room and sees Tavares signing his ticket and Matthews signing his. If I'm Mitch, you have to think your track record, plus the way you stood out in the Playoffs last year, while Matthews somewhat disappeared, puts you on level playing ground. I think this could possibly become the most fun part of the offseason. You'd be naive to think offer sheets wont be flying left and right to add a talent of that caliber.

I'm skeptical that offer sheets will be flying around...but it would certainly make for an exciting off season if GM's took off the gloves and went after some of these guys

Also...I don't claim to be 'in the know' but I'm close with someone who communicates with marner's family regularly...going back to his GTHL days to now...from day 1 they were going to wait for matthews to sign and then base their demands off his number. The past calendar year it's definitely reasonable to say marner has been more valuable to the leafs. He stays healthy, leads them in points...and the offence runs thru him everytime he's on the ice....and he still probably doesn't get enough credit for this defensive work breaking up passes.

I know, based on Dubas' comments yesterday...that he values Matthews more than Marner based on Matthews playing C and being a goal score vs playmaker...but Marner's camp is going to push hard for an identical contract. It's why I'm leaning more towards the possibility he does a 1-3yr bridge so that his AAV comes down...then re-signs for more than Matthews in a few years