Marners Contract by the Numbers

Forums/Armchair-GM

Page 1 of 1

Created by: tomkinoo

Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Feb. 7, 2019

Published: Feb. 7, 2019

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

First I'm going to use points per game on ELC vs % of cap

Nylander - 135PTS - 185GP = 0.73 pts/g - 6.962 AVV / 79.5 CAP = 8.77% of cap
Matthews - 179PTS - 183GP = 0.98 pts/g - 11.634 AVV / 83 CAP = 14.02% of cap

Marner - 191PTS - 207GP = 0.92 pts/g

If we want the pts per game ratio to % percentage of cap

Nylander - 0.73 / 8.77 = 0.083
Matthews - 0.98 / 14.02 = 0.070

Using Nylander's ratio - % of cap = 11.08 --> 9.196 AVV
Using Matthew's ratio - % of cap = 13.14 --> 10.906 AVV

Using the average of the two, which is fair because Marner isn't a center, but he's also a one of a kind winger - 12.11 % of cap --> 10.051 AVV

As an elite winger comparison, Kane got 11.09 % of the cap on a 5 year deal.

12.11 % of cap could either be for 5 or 6 years, I will calculate both just to see the difference.

I'm going to use Chris Johnston's tweet that speculates the AAV for an 8 year contract for Matthews as a reference to see how the term affects the AAV. Part of me believes the leafs organization actually leaked this number to calm the fan base about the 5 year term.

Here's the tweet - https://twitter.com/reporterchris/status/1092859349473640452

5 year - 11.643 AAV / 83 CAP = 14.02%
8 year - 13.8 AAV / 83 CAP = 16.63%

That's a 0.87 % increase per year

5 year - 11.643 AAV
6 year - 12.359 AAV
7 year - 13.081 AAV
8 year - 13.8 AAV

Doing the same exercise with Marner's 12.11% of cap we got earlier...

First column will be for 12.11 % as the 5 year number, second as the 6 year number

5 year - 10.051 AAV - 9.329 AAV
6 year - 10.773 AAV - 10.051 AAV
7 year - 11.496 AAV - 10.773 AAV
8 year - 12.217 AAV - 11.496 AAV

I think the second column is more realistic if you consider Kane's 11.09% of the cap on a 5 year deal ( 9.205 AAV with a 83 CAP ).

Personally I'd rather the 6 x 10.051 to stagger the contracts and to leave more room for the Johnsson/Kapanen contracts.

*** Reminder that cap crunchs with talented young players are a good thing ***

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Marner, Mitchell		6	$10,051,600

Buyouts

Mikhail Grabovski: $0

Retained Salary Transactions

Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
15	$83,000,000	$71,111,299	$0	$0	$11,888,701

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Marleau, Patrick $700,000$700,000 LW, C UFA - 1	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 6	Marner, Mitchell $10,051,600$10,051,600 RW UFA - 6
Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 2	Matthews, Auston $11,634,000$11,634,000 C UFA - 5	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 5
Brown, Connor $2,100,000$2,100,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Kadri, Nazem $4,500,000$4,500,000 C M-NTC UFA - 3
	Gauthier, Frédérik $675,000$675,000 C UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD UFA - 3	Zaitsev, Nikita $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 5	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Muzzin, Jake $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD UFA - 1	Holl, Justin $675,000$675,000 RD UFA - 1
Dermott, Travis $863,333$863,333 LD/RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		Horton, Nathan $5,300,000$5,300,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1

Feb. 7, 2019 at 2:52 p.m.

ChiHawk

Joined: Apr. 2017

Posts: 18,989

Likes: 9,300

Kudos for the analytics you put into this! applaud

tomkinoo, GMTD, TorontoUltraFan81 and 1 other person liked this.

Feb. 7, 2019 at 2:56 p.m.

swinny

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 4,783

Likes: 2,005

Ridiculously well thought out.

You might have to come back to this to see how close you are.

GMTD and ChiHawk liked this.

Feb. 7, 2019 at 2:59 p.m.

Juice

Joined: Apr. 2016

Posts: 3,301

Likes: 1,512

So...this is interesting work...I like what you did to show a statistical justification for a reasonable range...my biggest concern is that Marner doesn't look at himself as

Nylander < Marner < Matthews

he sees

Nylander < Marner = Matthews

So I think your numbers will be what Toronto is hoping to forecast since they value Matthews more as a goalscoring centre….but I would tack $500-$600k on to each range to account for the negotiation aspect with Marner's camp

GMTD liked this.

Feb. 7, 2019 at 3:04 p.m.

GMTD

Eichel Tower

Joined: Apr. 2017

Posts: 4,716

Likes: 2,441

Quoting: ChiHawk

Kudos for the analytics you put into this! applaud

Quoting: swinny

Ridiculously well thought out.

You might have to come back to this to see how close you are.

I think you nailed it, excellent job, you should do this for a living as either GM assistant or an agent.
WOW, that is amazing.

gretzkyghosts liked this.

Feb. 7, 2019 at 3:13 p.m.

tomkinoo

Thread Starter

Dubas for Prez

Joined: Oct. 2018

Posts: 219

Likes: 57

Quoting: GMTD

I think you nailed it, excellent job, you should do this for a living as either GM assistant or an agent.
WOW, that is amazing.

Thank you, honestly I've only started deep diving into contracts AAVs after the Nylander contract was announced, but I originally thought between 6.3 AAV and 6.8 AAV was fair for Nylander. After looking into in further though, it's not a bad contract, the league is changing a lot and 9.196 % of the cap like I calculated above isn't far off from the league standard for players of his caliber . Gaudreau was 9.25 %, Pastrnak was 8.89, for reference

ChiHawk and Green4D4 liked this.

Feb. 7, 2019 at 3:30 p.m.

TorontoUltraFan81

Joined: Aug. 2018

Posts: 52

Likes: 8

An insightful and well thought out Leafs ArmChair-GM, this is so refreshing to see.

tomkinoo and Green4D4 liked this.

Feb. 7, 2019 at 4:44 p.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,415

Likes: 22,629

Excellent job on comparing the Nylander/Matthews contracts and the upcoming Marner deal. Certainly an agent will be looking at these. The Leafs seemed to boxed themselves into "this the way we do things" corner. IMO the Leafs had their agenda and didn't look at league wide comparables as much as other organizations do.
IMO Nylander should have been closer to Larkin or Teravainen. Matthews 6% more than the the third highest NHLer And Marner...shouldn't the Kucherov or even Pasterak deals be somewhat comparables?
But the Leafs management went right or wrong to wrap up at least two of young players with subjectively "hometown premier contracts". Not every Leaf RFA will afforded the same consideration,

Feb. 8, 2019 at 3:38 a.m.

Jbarah12

Jbarah10

Joined: Sep. 2018

Posts: 136

Likes: 73

Very well put together, I'll be coming back to this when the official extension gets announced

tomkinoo liked this.

Page 1 of 1

DISPLAY SETTING

BETTING ODDS

LOCALE

ARCHIVE

CBA

CALCULATORS

FANTASY HOCKEY TOOLS

TOOLS

PLAYERS

WESTERN CONFERENCE

EASTERN CONFERENCE

INTERACTIVE FEATURES

Forums/Armchair-GM