Forums/Armchair-GM

Marners Contract by the Numbers

Created by: tomkinoo
Initial Creation Date: Feb. 7, 2019
Published: Feb. 7, 2019
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Team Explanation
First I'm going to use points per game on ELC vs % of cap

Nylander - 135PTS - 185GP = 0.73 pts/g - 6.962 AVV / 79.5 CAP = 8.77% of cap
Matthews - 179PTS - 183GP = 0.98 pts/g - 11.634 AVV / 83 CAP = 14.02% of cap

Marner - 191PTS - 207GP = 0.92 pts/g

If we want the pts per game ratio to % percentage of cap

Nylander - 0.73 / 8.77 = 0.083
Matthews - 0.98 / 14.02 = 0.070

Using Nylander's ratio - % of cap = 11.08 --> 9.196 AVV
Using Matthew's ratio - % of cap = 13.14 --> 10.906 AVV

Using the average of the two, which is fair because Marner isn't a center, but he's also a one of a kind winger - 12.11 % of cap --> 10.051 AVV

As an elite winger comparison, Kane got 11.09 % of the cap on a 5 year deal.

12.11 % of cap could either be for 5 or 6 years, I will calculate both just to see the difference.

I'm going to use Chris Johnston's tweet that speculates the AAV for an 8 year contract for Matthews as a reference to see how the term affects the AAV. Part of me believes the leafs organization actually leaked this number to calm the fan base about the 5 year term.

Here's the tweet - https://twitter.com/reporterchris/status/1092859349473640452

5 year - 11.643 AAV / 83 CAP = 14.02%
8 year - 13.8 AAV / 83 CAP = 16.63%

That's a 0.87 % increase per year

5 year - 11.643 AAV
6 year - 12.359 AAV
7 year - 13.081 AAV
8 year - 13.8 AAV

Doing the same exercise with Marner's 12.11% of cap we got earlier...

First column will be for 12.11 % as the 5 year number, second as the 6 year number

5 year - 10.051 AAV - 9.329 AAV
6 year - 10.773 AAV - 10.051 AAV
7 year - 11.496 AAV - 10.773 AAV
8 year - 12.217 AAV - 11.496 AAV

I think the second column is more realistic if you consider Kane's 11.09% of the cap on a 5 year deal ( 9.205 AAV with a 83 CAP ).

Personally I'd rather the 6 x 10.051 to stagger the contracts and to leave more room for the Johnsson/Kapanen contracts.

*** Reminder that cap crunchs with talented young players are a good thing ***
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Marner, Mitchell6$10,051,600
Buyouts
  • Mikhail Grabovski: $0
Retained Salary Transactions
  • Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)
  • Robin Lehner: $1,100,000 (22%)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
1
2
2020
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2021
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2022
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
16$83,000,000$78,461,299$0$0$4,538,701
Left WingCenterRight Wing
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Marleau, Patrick
$6,250,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 1
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Tavares, John
$11,000,000
C
NMC
UFA - 6
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Marner, Mitchell
$10,051,600
RW
UFA - 6
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Marleau, Patrick
$700,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
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Matthews, Auston
$11,634,000
C
UFA - 5
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Nylander, William
$6,962,366
RW, LW
UFA - 5
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Hyman, Zach
$2,250,000
LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 2
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Kadri, Nazem
$4,500,000
C
NTC
UFA - 3
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Brown, Connor
$2,100,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
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Gauthier, Frédérik
$675,000
C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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Rielly, Morgan
$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 3
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Zaitsev, Nikita
$4,500,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 5
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Andersen, Frederik
$5,000,000
G
NTC
UFA - 2
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Muzzin, Jake
$4,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
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Holl, Justin
$675,000
RD
UFA - 1
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Dermott, Travis
$863,333
LD/RD
RFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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Horton, Nathan
$5,300,000
RW
NMC NTC
UFA - 1

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Feb. 7, 2019 at 2:52 p.m.
#1
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Joined: Apr. 2017
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Kudos for the analytics you put into this! applaud
tomkinoo, GMTD, TorontoUltraFan81 and 1 other person liked this.
Feb. 7, 2019 at 2:56 p.m.
#2
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Ridiculously well thought out.

You might have to come back to this to see how close you are.
GMTD and ChiHawk liked this.
Feb. 7, 2019 at 2:59 p.m.
#3
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Joined: Apr. 2016
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So...this is interesting work...I like what you did to show a statistical justification for a reasonable range...my biggest concern is that Marner doesn't look at himself as

Nylander < Marner < Matthews

he sees

Nylander < Marner = Matthews

So I think your numbers will be what Toronto is hoping to forecast since they value Matthews more as a goalscoring centre….but I would tack $500-$600k on to each range to account for the negotiation aspect with Marner's camp
GMTD liked this.
Feb. 7, 2019 at 3:04 p.m.
#4
Eichel Tower
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Quoting: ChiHawk
Kudos for the analytics you put into this! applaud


Quoting: swinny
Ridiculously well thought out.

You might have to come back to this to see how close you are.


I think you nailed it, excellent job, you should do this for a living as either GM assistant or an agent.
WOW, that is amazing.
gretzkyghosts liked this.
Feb. 7, 2019 at 3:13 p.m.
#5
Thread Starter
Dubas for Prez
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Joined: Oct. 2018
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Quoting: GMTD
I think you nailed it, excellent job, you should do this for a living as either GM assistant or an agent.
WOW, that is amazing.


Thank you, honestly I've only started deep diving into contracts AAVs after the Nylander contract was announced, but I originally thought between 6.3 AAV and 6.8 AAV was fair for Nylander. After looking into in further though, it's not a bad contract, the league is changing a lot and 9.196 % of the cap like I calculated above isn't far off from the league standard for players of his caliber . Gaudreau was 9.25 %, Pastrnak was 8.89, for reference
ChiHawk and Green4D4 liked this.
Feb. 7, 2019 at 3:30 p.m.
#6
TorontoUltraFan81
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Joined: Aug. 2018
Posts: 52
Likes: 8
An insightful and well thought out Leafs ArmChair-GM, this is so refreshing to see.
tomkinoo and Green4D4 liked this.
Feb. 7, 2019 at 4:44 p.m.
#7
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Joined: Jul. 2015
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Excellent job on comparing the Nylander/Matthews contracts and the upcoming Marner deal. Certainly an agent will be looking at these. The Leafs seemed to boxed themselves into "this the way we do things" corner. IMO the Leafs had their agenda and didn't look at league wide comparables as much as other organizations do.
IMO Nylander should have been closer to Larkin or Teravainen. Matthews 6% more than the the third highest NHLer And Marner...shouldn't the Kucherov or even Pasterak deals be somewhat comparables?
But the Leafs management went right or wrong to wrap up at least two of young players with subjectively "hometown premier contracts". Not every Leaf RFA will afforded the same consideration,
Feb. 8, 2019 at 3:38 a.m.
#8
Jbarah10
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Joined: Sep. 2018
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Very well put together, I'll be coming back to this when the official extension gets announced
tomkinoo liked this.
 
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