Quoting: TheCelt
I think you're really missing the extension there. In a perfect world where he doesn't get dealt the Jets get Connor for 8 more guaranteed years. As long as there's a better scenario (Stone for 8 years) I'd take it. If Stone is signing an 8 year extension before he gets traded, that is nothing equivalent to a rental deal.
I definitely could be off with the analytics, but I think we can agree that the biggest knock to analytics is that it doesn't take context into account. However the context here is that Connor plays with better players on a better team, and Stone puts up better numbers. I don't think it gets more cut and dry than that.
I also agree that Connor is a bajillion times more valuable than Niku and Vesa but thinking long term, Niku and Vesa have those sweet, sweet ELCs that will make the next couple years manageable until we can ship Little out to Seattle and Buff comes off the books.
This scenario we lose a top 6 player for a better one, give up 2.5-3M in cap and a late 1st, and don't give up a single ELC. Now if it's an overpay, that's even better because it means that we could conceivably keep our first and maybe even get a pick coming back the other way.
Yep I think I had missed part. I didn't notice that these were sign and trades. With that said, I think you are overvaluing what a sign a trade means to Ottawa here. Ottawa can't dangle Stone with an extension as bait as much as people think. Stone more than likely doesn't want to resign in Ottawa. He is ONLY signing an extension because he knows he's being traded. Ottawa doesn't gain as much value here as you think. Especially with the fact that WPG has decent odds of singing Stone in the off season if he's willing to do a sign and trade now. Sure with 1 year less than he could but is that extra year worth it? Stone will be 33 by that time. More than likely on the decline.
Anyways sign and trades are RARE. Precisely because they are so hard to navigate. So many "what ifs" potentially to get in the way. Its almost a catch 22. By giving the team access to sign him to an extension as part of a deal, you decrease the team selling him's need to overpay for him in the first place. Knowing that they have a great chance at resigning him anyway, if the price becomes too high to make a deal happen now.
Anyhow, it'll come down to opinion. If you want to spend that much for Stone, by all means, that's your choice. I'm simply going on market value. Why spend that much when you may not nearly need to. You could very well get this result minus potentially one extra year on Stones contract, for far less. Heck if you want to, trade Connor for the cap relief but at least you'll get the market value for him.
IMO this is better:
WPG trades market value for Stone with 7 year extension signed this off season (If he is willing to sign an 8 year sign and trade, chances are he is willing to sign regardless)
WPG then trades Connor for Market value this off season when his new contract is up. (Not only replenishes the assets lost in the Stone trade but probably gets more since Connor is only a RFA)
Than:
WPG trading Connor and a 1st for Stone with 8 year extension.