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Sens trade I would make MelnykOut

Created by: TheCelt
Team: 2018-19 Winnipeg Jets
Initial Creation Date: Feb. 17, 2019
Published: Feb. 17, 2019
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Wouldn't make either trade without the extensions.
Trades
1.
WPG
  1. Stone, Mark
Additional Details:
Stone signs 8x9.7M extension
OTT
  1. Connor, Kyle
  2. 2019 1st round pick (WPG)
2.
WPG
  1. Dzingel, Ryan
Additional Details:
Signs for 4+x3.9M
OTT
  1. Stanley, Logan
Additional Details:
2019 1st round pick
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2018
2019
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2020
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2021
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
25$79,500,000$82,290,792$0$3,270,000-$2,790,792
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 7
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,125,000$6,125,000
C
UFA - 6
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$5,600,000$5,600,000
RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$4,125,000$4,125,000
LW, RW, C
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$5,291,667$5,291,667
C, RW
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$1,150,000$1,150,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,650,000$3M)
C, RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$2,916,667$2,916,667
C
UFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$894,166$894,166 (Performance Bonus$212,500$212K)
C, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$1,000,000$1,000,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$741,667$741,667 (Performance Bonus$25,000$25K)
RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$839,167$839,167 (Performance Bonus$200,000$200K)
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$874,125$874,125
C, LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$7,350,000$7,350,000
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$1,800,000$1,800,000
LW, RW, C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$4,333,333$4,333,333
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$7,600,000$7,600,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,166,667$6,166,667
G
UFA - 6
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$3,150,000$3,150,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$5,500,000$5,500,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$650,000$650,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$1,400,000$1,400,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$5,500,000$5,500,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$1,000,000$1,000,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$775,000$775,000 (Performance Bonus$182,500$182K)
LD/RD
UFA - 2

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Feb. 17, 2019 at 12:05 p.m.
#1
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Please tell me the first one is a joke?
Feb. 17, 2019 at 12:07 p.m.
#2
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Quoting: Donatello00
Please tell me the first one is a joke?


Absolutely not.

Stone>Connor, and considering the wage cap if the jets pay Connor7M is 2.7M is a huge win for the jets. The 1st makes up the difference for absolutely owning the Sens in that trade.
Feb. 17, 2019 at 12:13 p.m.
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Quoting: TheCelt
Absolutely not.

Stone>Connor, and considering the wage cap if the jets pay Connor7M is 2.7M is a huge win for the jets. The 1st makes up the difference for absolutely owning the Sens in that trade.


Gotta say that I completely disagree. Yes, Stone is right now marginally better than Connor but that will not last much longer. The Jets need the cap space to re-sign Laine, Trouba and other pieces so the money they would save on Connor would be huge.

Personally, I would not trade Connor for Stone straight up. Obviously just my opinion.
Feb. 17, 2019 at 12:23 p.m.
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Quoting: Donatello00
Gotta say that I completely disagree. Yes, Stone is right now marginally better than Connor but that will not last much longer. The Jets need the cap space to re-sign Laine, Trouba and other pieces so the money they would save on Connor would be huge.

Personally, I would not trade Connor for Stone straight up. Obviously just my opinion.


2.7M isn't exactly huge savings. Given the amount of Perreault and Kulikov trades on here, I think it's common knowledge what the Jets need to do to open up the available cap to make all of this work.

Stone flosses Connor in pretty much every shot-sharing statistic in the game, on a much worse team, with a worse center. Connor is good, and might even get to Stone's level offensively or jump a shade past it, but saying that Connor has the potential to pass Stone involves Connor expanding on more than just offense in ways that have been non-existent through his career so far.
Feb. 17, 2019 at 1:31 p.m.
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Quoting: Donatello00
Gotta say that I completely disagree. Yes, Stone is right now marginally better than Connor but that will not last much longer. The Jets need the cap space to re-sign Laine, Trouba and other pieces so the money they would save on Connor would be huge.

Personally, I would not trade Connor for Stone straight up. Obviously just my opinion.


Stone is not marginally better hes a top 3 RW and the best defensive winger in the league
Feb. 17, 2019 at 1:32 p.m.
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Chiarelli???? Is that you??? Get out here, Chevy is going to kick your ass if sees you in here making turd-nugget trades!

Edit: Ok ok constructive criticism. Connor is cheaper and arguably not that far off from Stone. Not as good yes but he's also younger and will be cheaper which WPG needs right now. Dzingel is worth a late 1st. Nothing more. Plus based on similar player signings, he'll get around 5M. 3.9 is way too low.
Feb. 17, 2019 at 1:48 p.m.
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Quoting: Ragsandbluesfan
Stone is not marginally better hes a top 3 RW and the best defensive winger in the league


Yes, Stone is one of the top defensive wingers in the game but Connor does not hurt you defensively. Connor had 31 goals last year in his first full season in the league and is on pace for another 30 goal season this season; something that Stone has yet to achieve. Connor is 22 years old.... you would be naive to think he will not improve defensively. Will he ever be as good of a two way forward as Stone? Probably not but the age gap, salary difference, offensive upside, and existing chemistry with the Scheif and Wheeler make Connor a better player for the Jets right now and in the long term. I would love to get Stone on the Jets, but not at the expense of Connor.
Feb. 17, 2019 at 2:01 p.m.
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Quoting: F50marco
Chiarelli???? Is that you??? Get out here, Chevy is going to kick your ass if sees you in here making turd-nugget trades!

Edit: Ok ok constructive criticism. Connor is cheaper and arguably not that far off from Stone. Not as good yes but he's also younger and will be cheaper which WPG needs right now. Dzingel is worth a late 1st. Nothing more. Plus based on similar player signings, he'll get around 5M. 3.9 is way too low.


I'll basically reiterate what I said to the fellow above. Connor is absolutely that far below Stone. Stone puts up better numbers with a worse center. But the biggest black mark on the Connor vs. Stone argument is that Connor doesn't even break even in corsi playing with Scheifele and Wheeler. If you can't out chance the other team on a line with Scheifele and Wheeler, and are on Laine levels of bad at possessing the puck away from Scheifele, that doesn't convince me. Accounting for Connor growing into a better player in a couple years doesn't mean he's going to become a great two-way player.

If this value is way-off, which I doubt, I'd do the trade 1 for 1, or have Ottawa toss in a pick. As long as we get that extension which probably cost the Jets 2.5-3M in difference, and don't give up prospects in the far future like Vesa or Niku, I would leave a happy camper. Shedding 2.5-3M in salary is nowhere near as difficult as people make it out to be. At worst it means downgrading the bottom six, which isn't a big deal.

Dzingel's a bit more of a long shot since the only way I'd do that trade is if he extends for less than 4.5M. Not likely, but not impossible depending on how bad his agent could be. If I'm a GM arguing with him, I'm pointing out that his production didn't spike until he played with Duchene, and that his shot-share isn't pretty.
Feb. 17, 2019 at 2:08 p.m.
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Quoting: TheCelt
I'll basically reiterate what I said to the fellow above. Connor is absolutely that far below Stone. Stone puts up better numbers with a better center. But the biggest black mark on the Connor vs. Stone argument is that Connor doesn't even break even in corsi playing with Scheifele and Wheeler. If you can't out chance the other team on a line with Scheifele and Wheeler, and are on Laine levels of bad at possessing the puck away from Scheifele, that doesn't convince me. Accounting for Connor growing into a better player in a couple years doesn't mean he's going to become a great two-way player.

If this value is way-off, which I doubt, I'd do the trade 1 for 1, or have Ottawa toss in a pick. As long as we get that extension which probably cost the Jets 2.5-3M in difference, and don't give up prospects in the far future like Vesa or Niku, I would leave a happy camper. Shedding 2.5-3M in salary is nowhere near as difficult as people make it out to be. At worst it means downgrading the bottom six, which isn't a big deal.

Dzingel's a bit more of a long shot since the only way I'd do that trade is if he extends for less than 4.5M. Not likely, but not impossible depending on how bad his agent could be. If I'm a GM arguing with him, I'm pointing out that his production didn't spike until he played with Duchene, and that his shot-share isn't pretty.


Fair enough but then you devaluing your own players then..... Is the going rate for Stone a top line winger and a 1st? Not in the slightest. A 1st, yes. a good prospect, yes but not a 30 goal scorer whose only 22 yo. I also think your overvaluing the analytics here. He isn't as bad as you are making him out to be. Veselainen or Niku aren't remotely as valuable as Connor is.

Regardless, of what you think of Connor, your valuation is way off. Stone could be had for way less. (Still pricey but way less then the market value of Connor and a 1st)
Feb. 17, 2019 at 2:27 p.m.
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Quoting: F50marco
Fair enough but then you devaluing your own players then..... Is the going rate for Stone a top line winger and a 1st? Not in the slightest. A 1st, yes. a good prospect, yes but not a 30 goal scorer whose only 22 yo. I also think your overvaluing the analytics here. He isn't as bad as you are making him out to be. Veselainen or Niku aren't remotely as valuable as Connor is.

Regardless, of what you think of Connor, your valuation is way off. Stone could be had for way less. (Still pricey but way less then the market value of Connor and a 1st)


I think you're really missing the extension there. In a perfect world where he doesn't get dealt the Jets get Connor for 8 more guaranteed years. As long as there's a better scenario (Stone for 8 years) I'd take it. If Stone is signing an 8 year extension before he gets traded, that is nothing equivalent to a rental deal.

I definitely could be off with the analytics, but I think we can agree that the biggest knock to analytics is that it doesn't take context into account. However the context here is that Connor plays with better players on a better team, and Stone puts up better numbers. I don't think it gets more cut and dry than that.

I also agree that Connor is a bajillion times more valuable than Niku and Vesa but thinking long term, Niku and Vesa have those sweet, sweet ELCs that will make the next couple years manageable until we can ship Little out to Seattle and Buff comes off the books.

This scenario we lose a top 6 player for a better one, give up 2.5-3M in cap and a late 1st, and don't give up a single ELC. Now if it's an overpay, that's even better because it means that we could conceivably keep our first and maybe even get a pick coming back the other way.
Feb. 17, 2019 at 2:47 p.m.
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Quoting: Donatello00
Yes, Stone is one of the top defensive wingers in the game but Connor does not hurt you defensively. Connor had 31 goals last year in his first full season in the league and is on pace for another 30 goal season this season; something that Stone has yet to achieve. Connor is 22 years old.... you would be naive to think he will not improve defensively. Will he ever be as good of a two way forward as Stone? Probably not but the age gap, salary difference, offensive upside, and existing chemistry with the Scheif and Wheeler make Connor a better player for the Jets right now and in the long term. I would love to get Stone on the Jets, but not at the expense of Connor.


Mark stone hasnt scored 30 yet because he not a goal scorer, nor does he play with scheifele and wheeler regularly
Feb. 17, 2019 at 2:53 p.m.
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Quoting: TheCelt
I think you're really missing the extension there. In a perfect world where he doesn't get dealt the Jets get Connor for 8 more guaranteed years. As long as there's a better scenario (Stone for 8 years) I'd take it. If Stone is signing an 8 year extension before he gets traded, that is nothing equivalent to a rental deal.

I definitely could be off with the analytics, but I think we can agree that the biggest knock to analytics is that it doesn't take context into account. However the context here is that Connor plays with better players on a better team, and Stone puts up better numbers. I don't think it gets more cut and dry than that.

I also agree that Connor is a bajillion times more valuable than Niku and Vesa but thinking long term, Niku and Vesa have those sweet, sweet ELCs that will make the next couple years manageable until we can ship Little out to Seattle and Buff comes off the books.

This scenario we lose a top 6 player for a better one, give up 2.5-3M in cap and a late 1st, and don't give up a single ELC. Now if it's an overpay, that's even better because it means that we could conceivably keep our first and maybe even get a pick coming back the other way.


Yep I think I had missed part. I didn't notice that these were sign and trades. With that said, I think you are overvaluing what a sign a trade means to Ottawa here. Ottawa can't dangle Stone with an extension as bait as much as people think. Stone more than likely doesn't want to resign in Ottawa. He is ONLY signing an extension because he knows he's being traded. Ottawa doesn't gain as much value here as you think. Especially with the fact that WPG has decent odds of singing Stone in the off season if he's willing to do a sign and trade now. Sure with 1 year less than he could but is that extra year worth it? Stone will be 33 by that time. More than likely on the decline.

Anyways sign and trades are RARE. Precisely because they are so hard to navigate. So many "what ifs" potentially to get in the way. Its almost a catch 22. By giving the team access to sign him to an extension as part of a deal, you decrease the team selling him's need to overpay for him in the first place. Knowing that they have a great chance at resigning him anyway, if the price becomes too high to make a deal happen now.

Anyhow, it'll come down to opinion. If you want to spend that much for Stone, by all means, that's your choice. I'm simply going on market value. Why spend that much when you may not nearly need to. You could very well get this result minus potentially one extra year on Stones contract, for far less. Heck if you want to, trade Connor for the cap relief but at least you'll get the market value for him.

IMO this is better:

WPG trades market value for Stone with 7 year extension signed this off season (If he is willing to sign an 8 year sign and trade, chances are he is willing to sign regardless)
WPG then trades Connor for Market value this off season when his new contract is up. (Not only replenishes the assets lost in the Stone trade but probably gets more since Connor is only a RFA)

Than:

WPG trading Connor and a 1st for Stone with 8 year extension.
Feb. 17, 2019 at 2:56 p.m.
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Quoting: Ragsandbluesfan
Mark stone hasnt scored 30 yet because he not a goal scorer, nor does he play with scheifele and wheeler regularly


Nor is he 22 years old? Whats your point? Connor is putting up the points Stone was earlier than when Stone was. I don't think there is any debate Stone is probably the better overall player than Connor. I think that's fair but the question is how much better is he? IMO he is but that difference isn't ginormous.
Feb. 17, 2019 at 3:54 p.m.
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Edited Feb. 17, 2019 at 4:42 p.m.
Quoting: F50marco
Yep I think I had missed part. I didn't notice that these were sign and trades. With that said, I think you are overvaluing what a sign a trade means to Ottawa here. Ottawa can't dangle Stone with an extension as bait as much as people think. Stone more than likely doesn't want to resign in Ottawa. He is ONLY signing an extension because he knows he's being traded. Ottawa doesn't gain as much value here as you think. Especially with the fact that WPG has decent odds of singing Stone in the off season if he's willing to do a sign and trade now. Sure with 1 year less than he could but is that extra year worth it? Stone will be 33 by that time. More than likely on the decline.

Anyways sign and trades are RARE. Precisely because they are so hard to navigate. So many "what ifs" potentially to get in the way. Its almost a catch 22. By giving the team access to sign him to an extension as part of a deal, you decrease the team selling him's need to overpay for him in the first place. Knowing that they have a great chance at resigning him anyway, if the price becomes too high to make a deal happen now.

Anyhow, it'll come down to opinion. If you want to spend that much for Stone, by all means, that's your choice. I'm simply going on market value. Why spend that much when you may not nearly need to. You could very well get this result minus potentially one extra year on Stones contract, for far less. Heck if you want to, trade Connor for the cap relief but at least you'll get the market value for him.

IMO this is better:

WPG trades market value for Stone with 7 year extension signed this off season (If he is willing to sign an 8 year sign and trade, chances are he is willing to sign regardless)
WPG then trades Connor for Market value this off season when his new contract is up. (Not only replenishes the assets lost in the Stone trade but probably gets more since Connor is only a RFA)

Than:

WPG trading Connor and a 1st for Stone with 8 year extension.


So I can agree with the majority of what you're saying. This is one of those situations where a sign+trade is actually plausible since if WPG had the cap space, and Stone was a UFA Winnipeg would probably be a top landing spot. The crux there is that allegedly Stone has resumed negotiations with the Sens. I would rather not gamble on that falling through, hence what you consider an overpay.

Now Winnipeg will need the cap space and considering they break even with Trouba, Connor, and Laine, if they trade Kulikov, and Perreault. So we're going to need to trade someone else. In this situation no matter who we trade as long as it's one player not named Scheifele, Winnipeg comes out on top. I think anyone in their right mind who isn't overemotional from one bad month of hockey can agree Laine isn't going anywhere. Ehlers is Connor with a better two-way game signed for less than Connor will make, and that leaves Connor.

You're proposing we give away assets, and maybe get back better assets, but there's some inherent risk there. I'm fairly risk-averse, so I like to get moves done with as little moving parts as possible. As it stands the Jets will be contenders for at least the next 5 years, barring some catastrophe. Supposing we end up with prospects that aren't NHL ready on an ELC for the next couple years or NHL ready prospects that will be due sooner than 2 years, we stand to shorten our window. Gambling our window with the gain of extending it or raising the overall level of the Jets, would not be a gamble I would make.
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