Dickie
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 72
Likes: 2
Every trade is a little off here I think. Often, people overvalue RFAs. Vatanen is a perfect example of this. 5v5, Vatanen is 3rd/borderline 2nd pair. His real value is on PP. He won't get an offer sheet for a $ amount equal to what he would seek in arbitration given the mandated return (if Vatanen is targeting b/w $5-6 million per that means either a 1st rd and 3rd rd or a 1st, 2nd & 3rd) especially as signing team will be taking on a big $ LT contract. Better way to think about RFA trades is what would you give up if the target in question was signed pre-arbitration? In Vatanen's case, this likely means 5yrs at ~$5.5MM. Not such a bargain anymore given term, the fact the guy is more of a role player & cap consequences.
So, I think you get more for Nash than you project. I'm also confused about the Dallas/Staal trade. He'd need to go to a team trying to stay above the floor and probably get a very speculative prospect in return.
The Dumba + 1st return for Stepan isn't going to fly. I look to O'Reilly trade as a comp for this one. Avs got a 1st rd pick in the top half of the draft and blue chip prospects that were themselves high 1st rd picks. Dumba is no longer a prospect. He is a young defender that is contributing in a very crowded and competitive blue line on the Wild. That makes him incredibly valuable.
The Klein/Tatar trade just has me scratching my head.