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Realistic 2nd contracts plus Trades

Created by: jfalstaff
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 1, 2019
Published: Mar. 1, 2019
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Builds on the contracts I estimated on another team. See here: https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/206659&post_id=765277

The trades --
OTT gets a useful player and pick for Gaborik's contract, which the Leafs can put on LTIR.
EDM wanted Brown around the trade deadline, and now they get him.
The Kadri trade is perhaps the most 'out there' -- MIN needs centers, and Kadri is a very good one on a great contract that runs several more years. In exchange, a very good defenseman on a great contract that only runs another year -- hence the pick. But maybe it works better as a straight-up swap.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$3,333,333
2$3,757,500
5$9,116,000
2$750,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
TylerEnnis, Type
1$750,000
ParLindholm, Type
1$995,000
Trades
1.
OTT
  1. Zaitsev, Nikita
  2. 2020 3rd round pick (TOR)
2.
TOR
  1. 2019 3rd round pick (NYI)
3.
TOR
  1. Spurgeon, Jared
  2. 2020 3rd round pick (MIN)
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2019
Logo of the NYI
2020
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the SJS
2021
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2022
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$83,500,000$77,878,199$0$215,000$5,621,801
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$9,116,000$9,116,000
RW
UFA - 6
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,333,333$3,333,333
LW, RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,634,000$11,634,000
C
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,757,500$3,757,500
RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$775,000$775,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
ParLindholm, Type
$995,000$995,000
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$675,000$675,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$842,500$842,500 (Performance Bonus$82,500$82K)
RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$5,187,500$5,187,500
RD
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$4,000,000$4,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$863,333$863,333
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$750,000$750,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$675,000$675,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$750,000$750,000
G
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$767,500$767,500 (Performance Bonus$132,500$132K)
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,300,000$5,300,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$894,167$894,167
LD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$4,875,000$4,875,000
RW
UFA - 2
TylerEnnis, Type
$750,000$750,000

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Mar. 1, 2019 at 1:49 p.m.
#1
Bcarlo25
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Minnesota would never take that deal
Mar. 1, 2019 at 1:53 p.m.
#2
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Your contracts.. Johnsson and Kapanen are debatable, but personally I don't see either of them over $3.25M for a bridge deals. Marner you're just off. Won't be 5 years cause Toronto doesn't want him and Matthews expiring in the same year for UFA, and won't be $9M for long term either. It's either gonna be a 6-7 year deal over $10M, or a 2-3 bridge year deal around $7-$8.5M to make the cap work.

Your trades: no offence, but awful. Toronto rejects all of them. Kadri for Spurgeon is the most interesting, but I'd think Toronto would want more back for a guy that's on as great of a deal that Kadri is. Minnesota might not want Kadri either of they're rebuilding. Toronto already turned down a roster player for Brown so they won't take Benning. And Zaitsev has value and is a NHL dman, Toronto isn't taking on a bad contract to throw on LTIR for him.
Mar. 1, 2019 at 1:54 p.m.
#3
In Pridham we trust
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Minny has a fair amount of capspace, if a deal can be worked out around Kadri and Spurgeon, Leafs should get them to retain a chunk.
jfalstaff liked this.
Mar. 1, 2019 at 2:04 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: jonesryan
Your contracts.. Johnsson and Kapanen are debatable, but personally I don't see either of them over $3.25M for a bridge deals.


I explained that in the linked roster. The players that are most similar to Kapanen and Johnsson have signed for what would now -- that is, on a $83m cap -- be over $3.333m.

Quoting: jonesryan
Marner you're just off. Won't be 5 years cause Toronto doesn't want him and Matthews expiring in the same year for UFA, and won't be $9M for long term either. It's either gonna be a 6-7 year deal over $10M, or a 2-3 bridge year deal around $7-$8.5M to make the cap work.


Ah yes. The staggered expirations. I'd forgotten about that. Something shorter with Marner is likely... but I don't think it'll be anywhere close to $7m. It's looking like the days of lowball bridges for top-end talent are over. So, imo 2-3 years at $8.5-9m is more likely.

Quoting: jonesryan
Your trades: no offence, but awful. Toronto rejects all of them. Kadri for Spurgeon is the most interesting, but I'd think Toronto would want more back for a guy that's on as great of a deal that Kadri is. Minnesota might not want Kadri either of they're rebuilding. Toronto already turned down a roster player for Brown so they won't take Benning. And Zaitsev has value and is a NHL dman, Toronto isn't taking on a bad contract to throw on LTIR for him..


Zaitsev may have value as an NHL dman, but for the Leafs he's what's in the way of their being able to sign their RFAs. I think other teams will be aware of that, so realistically we're talking about them getting Zaitsev on the cheap or letting the Leafs hold onto him and getting Johnsson or Kapanen when the Leafs are inevitably forced to trade one, the other, or both, because Zaitsev (and apparently Brown?) simply must be held on to.

As for Brown... what Toronto elected to do with him in season as they're gearing up for a run is one thing. What they'll do with a different cap structure is another.
Mar. 1, 2019 at 2:07 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: Barilko14
Minny has a fair amount of capspace, if a deal can be worked out around Kadri and Spurgeon, Leafs should get them to retain a chunk.


If they could get MIN to hold onto like $2m of Spurgeon's contract, that'd probably enable the Leafs to extend Marner for 6/7 years at the ~$11m he's seeking.
Mar. 1, 2019 at 2:16 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: jfalstaff
If they could get MIN to hold onto like $2m of Spurgeon's contract, that'd probably enable the Leafs to extend Marner for 6/7 years at the ~$11m he's seeking.


Yeah, I can't get a good sense of Spurgeon's true value. He's a very underrated dman. He only has 1 year left, compared to 3 left for Kadri. Both play high value positions.

I would add a pick/prospect to Kadri to get Minny to keep some salary.

And personally, I'd play Spurgeon on the 2nd pair (or 1B) with Muzzin, think those guys would make a great pair, and face the other teams best, while 1st pair Rielly-Dermott play against weaker comp when we control the matchups, and run wild.
Mar. 1, 2019 at 2:27 p.m.
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Quoting: jfalstaff
I explained that in the linked roster. The players that are most similar to Kapanen and Johnsson have signed for what would now -- that is, on a $83m cap -- be over $3.333m.



Ah yes. The staggered expirations. I'd forgotten about that. Something shorter with Marner is likely... but I don't think it'll be anywhere close to $7m. It's looking like the days of lowball bridges for top-end talent are over. So, imo 2-3 years at $8.5-9m is more likely.



Zaitsev may have value as an NHL dman, but for the Leafs he's what's in the way of their being able to sign their RFAs. I think other teams will be aware of that, so realistically we're talking about them getting Zaitsev on the cheap or letting the Leafs hold onto him and getting Johnsson or Kapanen when the Leafs are inevitably forced to trade one, the other, or both, because Zaitsev (and apparently Brown?) simply must be held on to.

As for Brown... what Toronto elected to do with him in season as they're gearing up for a run is one thing. What they'll do with a different cap structure is another.


You make no sense for the Marner contract. You gave him $9.16M on a 5 year deal but on a 3 year deal you're saying give him between $8.5-$9M? The whole point of lowering the years of a contract is to lower the cap hit. On a 3 year deal, I think it'd be settled around $8M. That kinda contract is more than fair because it doesn't but out any UFA years which significantly lowers the cap hit. $8.5M would be on the very high end on a bridge deal. No player has ever gotten that much on a bridge deal so it's more than fair and helps the cap situation
Mar. 1, 2019 at 2:39 p.m.
#8
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Why does Ottawa want Zaitsev and his 4.5m contract any more than Leafs do? If the Leafs don't think is 4.5m value either do the Sens, Holl a regular?
Mar. 1, 2019 at 2:45 p.m.
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Quoting: jonesryan
You make no sense for the Marner contract. You gave him $9.16M on a 5 year deal but on a 3 year deal you're saying give him between $8.5-$9M? The whole point of lowering the years of a contract is to lower the cap hit. On a 3 year deal, I think it'd be settled around $8M. That kinda contract is more than fair because it doesn't but out any UFA years which significantly lowers the cap hit. $8.5M would be on the very high end on a bridge deal. No player has ever gotten that much on a bridge deal so it's more than fair and helps the cap situation


Yes, that's the "point" of a bridge deal from management's perspective. I don't see Marner or his team seeing it that way. In the interests of being "realistic," I think it makes sense to look at how the Matthews and Nylander contracts worked out if we're trying to anticipate how Marner's will be resolved. All signs are that Marner's camp won't go down to number that's too far off from Matthews's, regardless of whether there are no UFA years bought out. And, beyond the Leafs' very recent history, there really aren't very many top-tier talents discounting their services. Talents of Marner's calibre end up signing their second contracts for around 10-11% of the cap, which puts it more in the $8.5-9m range, and my belief is, in 2019, that'll be a cap hit no matter the term. $8m, which is a adjusted value of the Gaudreau contract, would be a best-case scenario, but that just doesn't seem very likely. We shall see.
Mar. 1, 2019 at 2:46 p.m.
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Quoting: palhal
Why does Ottawa want Zaitsev and his 4.5m contract any more than Leafs do?


Rebuilding teams still need to ice a team. Columbus liked the idea of paying a contract for a guy who can play. There's an asset to sweeten the deal.
Mar. 1, 2019 at 2:59 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: jfalstaff
Rebuilding teams still need to ice a team. Columbus liked the idea of paying a contract for a guy who can play. There's an asset to sweeten the deal.


Oh, I agree with one about icing a team. Ottawa can do better than spending 4.5m on Zaitsev. For a year it might OK, but not to him for five years on the roster..
Mar. 1, 2019 at 3:13 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: palhal
Oh, I agree with one about icing a team. Ottawa can do better than spending 4.5m on Zaitsev. For a year it might OK, but not to him for five years on the roster..


Well, they are not going to have an easy time getting UFAs, or anybody that has a movement clause.
Mar. 1, 2019 at 3:41 p.m.
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Sorry to jonesryan but Spurgeon has a lot more trade value than Kadri. Minnesota is the team that says no thanks not the Leafs.
Mar. 1, 2019 at 6:10 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: Barilko14
Well, they are not going to have an easy time getting UFAs, or anybody that has a movement clause.


IMO the Sens will be be able to get some cheap veteran UFAs. Guys on their last contracts who might not get many offers. They might overpay for short term vets till (hopefully) some the kids are NHL ready, or if the Sens are again a desirable place to sign for. Also some teams may want to dump contracts,,,,more along the lines of Kulivov (one year) or Perrault. Kinda sad that the Sens have sunk this low in two years.
Mar. 1, 2019 at 6:50 p.m.
#15
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Quoting: palhal
IMO the Sens will be be able to get some cheap veteran UFAs. Guys on their last contracts who might not get many offers. They might overpay for short term vets till (hopefully) some the kids are NHL ready, or if the Sens are again a desirable place to sign for. Also some teams may want to dump contracts,,,,more along the lines of Kulivov (one year) or Perrault. Kinda sad that the Sens have sunk this low in two years.



As long as Melnyk is there, they won't be a desirable ufa destination.

Obviously it's not a given, but Ottawa won't be able to acquire a better dman for a cheaper price. Also not only do they not have many solid nhl dmen on their roster, they have a shortage of solid D prospects with top 4 upside as well.

I really doubt the Zaitsev contract ever becomes a problem for them.

Let's not forget the Sens have an underfunded scouting and development dept as well.

So there's no guarantee they are better at rebuilding, then they are trying to build a winning team.
 
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