Forums/Armchair-GM

Marner gets more than 10m And Willie is gone

Created by: TH13
Initial Creation Date: Mar 6, 2019
Published: Mar 6, 2019 at 2:04 pm
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Team Explanation
Sorry Nylander but thats what you get from wanting to get paid. Id rather keep Kappy and AJ and lose Nylander. Two players that have been producing which can be signed for the same as 1 with a team this starving for cap space. Seems pretty obvious who has to go.


Also screwed up AJ's contract add another .5 mil to that.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Kapanen, Kasperi3$3,250,000
Marner, Mitchell6$10,516,000
Petan, Nicolas1$1,000,000
Johnsson, Andreas1$1,800,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Ennis, Tyler2$1,000,000
Trades
TOR
  1. Nurse, Darnell
  2. 2019 4th round pick (EDM)
EDM
  1. Brown, Connor
  2. Zaitsev, Nikita
  3. Moore, Trevor
  4. 2020 2nd round pick (TOR)
TOR
  1. Pesce, Brett
  2. Gauthier, Julien
  3. 2019 3rd round pick (CAR)
CAR
  1. Nylander, William
Buyouts
  • Mikhail Grabovski: $0
Retained Salary Transactions
  • Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
1
2
2019
CAR
EDM
2020
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
EDM
SJS
2021
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
2022
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
24$82,500,000$82,444,166$0$382,500$55,834
Left WingCenterRight Wing
TOR
Hyman, Zach
$2,250,000
LW
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Tavares, John
$11,000,000
C
NMC
UFA - 6
TOR
Marner, Mitchell
$10,516,000
RW
UFA - 6
TOR
Johnsson, Andreas
$1,800,000
LW
UFA - 4
TOR
Matthews, Auston
$11,634,000
C
UFA - 5
TOR
Kapanen, Kasperi
$3,250,000
RW
RFA - 3
TOR
Marleau, Patrick
$6,250,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 1
TOR
Kadri, Nazem
$4,500,000
C
NTC
UFA - 3
TOR
Ennis, Tyler
$1,000,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 1
TOR
Marleau, Patrick
$700,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
TOR
Gauthier, Frédérik
$675,000
C
RFA - 1
TOR
Bracco, Jeremy
$842,500
RW
RFA - 1
TOR
Petan, Nicolas
$1,000,000
LW, RW, C
RFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
TOR
Rielly, Morgan
$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 3
CAR
Pesce, Brett
$4,025,000
RD
UFA - 5
TOR
Andersen, Frederik
$5,000,000
G
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Muzzin, Jake
$4,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
EDM
Nurse, Darnell
$3,200,000
LD
RFA - 1
TOR
Sparks, Garret
$750,000
G
UFA - 1
TOR
Dermott, Travis
$863,333
LD
RFA - 1
TOR
Holl, Justin
$675,000
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
CAR
Gauthier, Julien
$863,333
RW
RFA - 2
TOR
Horton, Nathan
$5,300,000
RW
NMC NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Borgman, Andreas
$700,000
LD
RFA - 1
TOR
Rosén, Calle
$750,000
LD
UFA - 2

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Mar 6, 2019 at 2:08
#1
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 1,420
Likes: 214
HUGE overvalue TML players. Zaitsev is a cap dumb, Connor Brown value about a 4th pick, Trevor is a 4th line player, all this package is far to Nurse value!!!
Same thing with Nylander, he's good but he doesn't give you this package!!
Mar 6, 2019 at 2:10
#2
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 808
Likes: 125
Johnsson or Kap are gone Nylander isn't going anywhere.
Mar 6, 2019 at 2:12
#3
Wannabe Leafs GM
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 1,013
Likes: 307
Quoting: yanp007
HUGE overvalue TML players. Zaitsev is a cap dumb, Connor Brown value about a 4th pick, Trevor is a 4th line player, all this package is far to Nurse value!!!
Same thing with Nylander, he's good but he doesn't give you this package!!


So you are right but at the same time so very wrong.

Yes, this package does not get you Nurse. HOWEVER, Brown's value is easily a 2nd and his value is raised going to Edmonton due to his relationship with McDavid. Moore will be a top 6 forward in the next year or two, so way off there. Zaitsev is 100% a salary dump. So you were half right.
Mar 6, 2019 at 2:15
#4
Thread Starter
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 88
Likes: 48
The Nurse deal only works because Edmonton can't afford to pay him after this contract and they need wingers. Also Edmonton is desperate. I think you'll see some desperate moves from them this summer. Moore and Brown have upside if they get the playing time. They are definitely upgrades to what Edmonton has out there now.

Also Zaitsev isn't as bad as half the people on this website thinks he is. Spends most of his time playing with Jake "the Dwinger" Gardiner. his number when put with a real defence partner are respectable.

I'll admit the Nylander trade might just need to be one for one. Honestly id accept that. But don't kid yourself Nylander still has game and for a team like Carolina that need to fill some seats I think that make this deal. Leaves them with Aho and Nylander down to middle of they want.
GMTD liked this.
Mar 6, 2019 at 2:18
#5
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,913
Likes: 413
Slide Nylander into Marner's spot beside Tavares and see how many points he can score at 7M versus Marner at 10.5. I guarantee it isn't 50% less.

Everyone seems to forget that in the 3 years prior to this one, Marner scored only 8 points more than Nylander. Lots of potential value in the Nylander contract and none here with Marner.
blowing_the_zone and Jamiepo liked this.
Mar 6, 2019 at 2:28
#6
Thread Starter
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 88
Likes: 48
Quoting: Goulet
Slide Nylander into Marner's spot beside Tavares and see how many points he can score at 7M versus Marner at 10.5. I guarantee it isn't 50% less.

Everyone seems to forget that in the 3 years prior to this one, Marner scored only 8 points more than Nylander. Lots of potential value in the Nylander contract and none here with Marner.


If you want to make that your argument then you have to say you could slide Kappy there as well or AJ. Both which would be cheaper than Nylander.
Mar 6, 2019 at 2:30
#7
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,913
Likes: 413
Quoting: TH13
The Nurse deal only works because Edmonton can't afford to pay him after this contract and they need wingers. Also Edmonton is desperate. I think you'll see some desperate moves from them this summer. Moore and Brown have upside if they get the playing time. They are definitely upgrades to what Edmonton has out there now.

Also Zaitsev isn't as bad as half the people on this website thinks he is. Spends most of his time playing with Jake "the Dwinger" Gardiner. his number when put with a real defence partner are respectable.

I'll admit the Nylander trade might just need to be one for one. Honestly id accept that. But don't kid yourself Nylander still has game and for a team like Carolina that need to fill some seats I think that make this deal. Leaves them with Aho and Nylander down to middle of they want.


The Leafs need cheap productive wingers like Moore, they can't move him. And as much fun as it is to include Zaitsev in the the Edmonton deal, they have no cap space. I often presume Brown and Zaitsev go to Edmonton for Larsson but they have to clear salary for that to happen. Maybe they would be better off with Hyman and Brown for a D. Either way, they seem like good trading partners.

The idea that Nylander has somehow forgotten how to play hockey since he sat out and signed his deal has gotten quite hilarious. As is moving a 7M top winger with a 60 point floor for a decent 4M top 4 D.

Considering that the Leafs already acquired a better D in Muzzin, I can't understand why anyone would think it was a good idea to trade Willy for a worse D in Pesce.
Mar 6, 2019 at 2:32
#8
Joined: Apr 2016
Posts: 2,519
Likes: 1,036
Quoting: Goulet
Slide Nylander into Marner's spot beside Tavares and see how many points he can score at 7M versus Marner at 10.5. I guarantee it isn't 50% less.

Everyone seems to forget that in the 3 years prior to this one, Marner scored only 8 points more than Nylander. Lots of potential value in the Nylander contract and none here with Marner.


There's a difference between forgetting 3 years ago and recognizing development paths. 3 years ago Nylander was riding shotgun to Matthews while Marner was getting 3rd and 4th line minutes either trying to bounce pucks in off of JVR or scrapping away last year with Matt Martin and Dominic Moore. He really didn't start to get going until finally getting promoted to a line with Kadri (who was in a major scoring slum himself), and then the two of them took off to the races.

So it's not about forgetting where the both started...it's about looking at where they are now...and IMO, Marner's impact on each game both offensively and defensively is bigger than any other forward right now.
GMTD liked this.
Mar 6, 2019 at 2:33
#9
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,913
Likes: 413
Quoting: TH13
If you want to make that your argument then you have to say you could slide Kappy there as well or AJ. Both which would be cheaper than Nylander.


Nylander and Marner play a very similar style. Kapanen and Johnsson are quite different. I wouldn't trade any of those 4 for a D like Pesce. That would be a desperate move.
Mar 6, 2019 at 2:37
#10
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,913
Likes: 413
Quoting: Juice
There's a difference between forgetting 3 years ago and recognizing development paths. 3 years ago Nylander was riding shotgun to Matthews while Marner was getting 3rd and 4th line minutes either trying to bounce pucks in off of JVR or scrapping away last year with Matt Martin and Dominic Moore. He really didn't start to get going until finally getting promoted to a line with Kadri (who was in a major scoring slum himself), and then the two of them took off to the races.

So it's not about forgetting where the both started...it's about looking at where they are now...and IMO, Marner's impact on each game both offensively and defensively is bigger than any other forward right now.


It's not about where they started but about what they did over the course of the two seasons prior. Both have spent time on the 4th, and third, and second lines and yes, now Marner looks to have hit his stride and potential. I believe Nylander's start this year is just a blip on the radar and seeing him play centre certainly makes one wish he had some wingers to play with.

I know Marner is going to get over paid and I know Willy will out produce his contract.
blowing_the_zone liked this.
Mar 6, 2019 at 2:42
#11
Let'sGoBlues | WPGv4
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 4,338
Likes: 2,496
Quoting: Davisoc
So you are right but at the same time so very wrong.

Yes, this package does not get you Nurse. HOWEVER, Brown's value is easily a 2nd and his value is raised going to Edmonton due to his relationship with McDavid. Moore will be a top 6 forward in the next year or two, so way off there. Zaitsev is 100% a salary dump. So you were half right.


The Overhype Police is here. Not sure if there is anything to suggest that Moore is going to be a top 6 forward in the next year or two. He has a big body of AHL work that equates to about 0.26 ppg in the NHL (0.61 ppg in AHL * 0.4241 NHL pts/AHL pts). The typical cut-off for a top six guy is about 0.5 ppg from what I can gather (although having TOI in the minors/juniors would make these projections much more valuable). Realistically, Moore is a nice bottom six option; he probably won't find some magical new talents in his 4th year of professional hockey, at age 24-25. If he does, it would be an awesome story, but I think he peaks as a valuable 3rd liner.
GMTD liked this.
Mar 6, 2019 at 2:48
#12
Joined: Apr 2016
Posts: 2,519
Likes: 1,036
Quoting: Goulet
It's not about where they started but about what they did over the course of the two seasons prior. Both have spent time on the 4th, and third, and second lines and yes, now Marner looks to have hit his stride and potential. I believe Nylander's start this year is just a blip on the radar and seeing him play centre certainly makes one wish he had some wingers to play with.

I know Marner is going to get over paid and I know Willy will out produce his contract.


Oh I agree. I'm counting this entire season a complete wash for Willy and I'm sure he'll hit the ground running next year...and agree he'll be one of our better contracts when all is said and done.

I think the reality is simply the timing of each deal. If Nylander's contract was due next summer after Matthews inked for $11.6 and Marner gets....who knows...let's say between $9.5-$10.5m...I don't see any way Nylander would get less than $8m
Mar 6, 2019 at 2:58
#13
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 2,132
Likes: 1,540
Quoting: Juice
There's a difference between forgetting 3 years ago and recognizing development paths. 3 years ago Nylander was riding shotgun to Matthews while Marner was getting 3rd and 4th line minutes either trying to bounce pucks in off of JVR or scrapping away last year with Matt Martin and Dominic Moore. He really didn't start to get going until finally getting promoted to a line with Kadri (who was in a major scoring slum himself), and then the two of them took off to the races.

So it's not about forgetting where the both started...it's about looking at where they are now...and IMO, Marner's impact on each game both offensively and defensively is bigger than any other forward right now.


That's a fair point about looking at where they are right now. Current output has to figure into things as much as past output. But if we're going to go there then its worthwhile pointing out that Nylander hasn't been playing with Matthews this year. And that's likely impacted his stats. It's also worth pointing out that JT has made a career out of helping to get his wingers paid. And JT has likely impacted Mitch's stats too.

I think this is where we're at

*We have alot of young RFA talent that are going to command a pay increase, and as a result, we're likely going to lose someone we don't want to.
*There has been alot of agms posted that show how we can keep the majority of the team together by moving some combination of players like Brown, Z, Hyman, losing Gards and Hainsey etc and filling in with elcs. But these configurations seem highly dependant on getting the RFAs signed on reasonable contracts.
*If the leafs are developing a trend of over paying for their RFAs, and they continue to do so, then instead of losing guys like Brown et al. we're likely going to lose 1 of Nylander or Kadri plus some of the Browns etc. There really is only so much to go around. Because... Math. Or the cap.

There's gonna be some changes coming in the offseason.. and that's ok.
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Mar 6, 2019 at 3:07
#14
Let'sGoBlues | WPGv4
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 4,338
Likes: 2,496
Quoting: blowing_the_zone
That's a fair point about looking at where they are right now. Current output has to figure into things as much as past output. But if we're going to go there then its worthwhile pointing out that Nylander hasn't been playing with Matthews this year. And that's likely impacted his stats. It's also worth pointing out that JT has made a career out of helping to get his wingers paid. And JT has likely impacted Mitch's stats too.

I think this is where we're at

*We have alot of young RFA talent that are going to command a pay increase, and as a result, we're likely going to lose someone we don't want to.
*There has been alot of agms posted that show how we can keep the majority of the team together by moving some combination of players like Brown, Z, Hyman, losing Gards and Hainsey etc and filling in with elcs. But these configurations seem highly dependant on getting the RFAs signed on reasonable contracts.
*If the leafs are developing a trend of over paying for their RFAs, and they continue to do so, then instead of losing guys like Brown et al. we're likely going to lose 1 of Nylander or Kadri plus some of the Browns etc. There really is only so much to go around. Because... Math. Or the cap.

There's gonna be some changes coming in the offseason.. and that's ok.


I agree, especially with the last 3 words.

Y'all have a competent GM and tons of talent. Fitting under the cap might require some maneuvering but it isn't a problem at all. A problem is when a team doesn't have any top-end/elite talent and tries to pay for it with a quick fix - which could ironically be the reason that a quality Leafs player gets moved this summer.

The only way the Leafs could end up in a worse situation after this offseason is if 30 other GMs conspire against Dubas to force him to make bad trades to fit under the cap. But the 30 GMs don't give a rats-ass about the Leafs, they just want to make their teams as good as they possibly can.
blowing_the_zone and Juice liked this.
Mar 6, 2019 at 3:07
#15
get off my lawn...
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 11,551
Likes: 5,714
Quoting: Juice
There's a difference between forgetting 3 years ago and recognizing development paths. 3 years ago Nylander was riding shotgun to Matthews while Marner was getting 3rd and 4th line minutes either trying to bounce pucks in off of JVR or scrapping away last year with Matt Martin and Dominic Moore. He really didn't start to get going until finally getting promoted to a line with Kadri (who was in a major scoring slum himself), and then the two of them took off to the races.

So it's not about forgetting where the both started...it's about looking at where they are now...and IMO, Marner's impact on each game both offensively and defensively is bigger than any other forward right now.


I think far too many people forget about Tavares.... Tavares may or may not put up a career high in points this season but certainly isn’t far off from his normal pace. If marner was truly the sole basis for the success of his line certainly JT would have far more points. I think it is a little bit of A and a little bit of B.

Nylander is certainly playing well but with out that goal scorer on his line he is not putting up the points. Maybe if Kadri weren’t ringing so much iron this year he may be doing a bit better. I just think to say that nylander only played well with Matthews to then turn around and ignore that Marner is playing with Tavares it a bit unfair. It’s not like Hyman has 40 goals this season....
blowing_the_zone liked this.
Mar 6, 2019 at 3:19
#16
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 2,132
Likes: 1,540
Quoting: A_K
I agree, especially with the last 3 words.

Y'all have a competent GM and tons of talent. Fitting under the cap might require some maneuvering but it isn't a problem at all. A problem is when a team doesn't have any top-end/elite talent and tries to pay for it with a quick fix - which could ironically be the reason that a quality Leafs player gets moved this summer.

The only way the Leafs could end up in a worse situation after this offseason is if 30 other GMs conspire against Dubas to force him to make bad trades to fit under the cap. But the 30 GMs don't give a rats-ass about the Leafs, they just want to make their teams as good as they possibly can.


I think this is one of the most reasonable posts I've read in a long time.. we need more Blues fans commenting on the Leafs agms to help walk us off the edge..

I like your assessment AK, and I think we're in good shape and in good hands right now too. The cap causes some tension, and it would be an entirely different debate if it wasn't in place, but overall I like it.. for alot a reasons that probably don't need to be reposted right now. I'll only say that player turnover caused by cap constraints isn't a bad thing at all, imo... I like Connor Brown, but if his cap hit at 2M+ for a 4th liner wasn't too much for us, then we probably wouldn't get a chance to see Moore.. and so far I really like watching that guy play!
Mar 6, 2019 at 3:32
#17
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 2,132
Likes: 1,540
Quoting: Jamiepo
I think far too many people forget about Tavares.... Tavares may or may not put up a career high in points this season but certainly isn’t far off from his normal pace. If marner was truly the sole basis for the success of his line certainly JT would have far more points. I think it is a little bit of A and a little bit of B.

Nylander is certainly playing well but with out that goal scorer on his line he is not putting up the points. Maybe if Kadri weren’t ringing so much iron this year he may be doing a bit better. I just think to say that nylander only played well with Matthews to then turn around and ignore that Marner is playing with Tavares it a bit unfair. It’s not like Hyman has 40 goals this season....


Hyman has been a goal scoring machine lately! Give the man some props.. wink

I give Hyman a hard rap sometimes, mostly to counter the praise he gets from Babs, but I'm really hoping he hits 20 goals this year.. he has a shot at it. good for him if he gets there.
Mar 6, 2019 at 3:33
#18
Joined: Apr 2016
Posts: 2,519
Likes: 1,036
Quoting: Jamiepo
I think far too many people forget about Tavares.... Tavares may or may not put up a career high in points this season but certainly isn’t far off from his normal pace. If marner was truly the sole basis for the success of his line certainly JT would have far more points. I think it is a little bit of A and a little bit of B.

Nylander is certainly playing well but with out that goal scorer on his line he is not putting up the points. Maybe if Kadri weren’t ringing so much iron this year he may be doing a bit better. I just think to say that nylander only played well with Matthews to then turn around and ignore that Marner is playing with Tavares it a bit unfair. It’s not like Hyman has 40 goals this season....


Point was to take all the information into consideration. The original post I was replying to suggested Marner and Nylander are closer in value based on their production from 2 seasons ago.

I agree 100% that Tavares has helped boost Marner's numbers. Even Hyman...if you look just at the last two games...you can see how well he's adapted to having Marner lead rushes up the ice....getting himself into open space and being ready to receive a pass. IMO, the first year and a half for Marner saw a lot of beauty passes into the slot that would not get converted into goals because his linemates were either not used to him, or not capable of matching their gameplay to his vision. Tavares is an elite finisher and shares a similar vision so they both benefit as a result.

The best part is...whether we're talking about Matthews, Marner, Nylander or Kapanen...I think we're just starting to scratch the surface of their potential. These are all 21/22 year olds growing into their bodies, getting physically stronger, and learning how to compete at this level. Hopefully Dubas has a way to make it all work because, the reality is...if there wasn't a cap these guys would all be worth $15m + each to the leafs
Jamiepo liked this.
Mar 6, 2019 at 5:58
#19
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 7,845
Likes: 1,580
I just seen Marchand troll Toronto saying he can't wait to see Marners contract. 12M he deserves it tears of joy
got some rivalry with Boston going.
 
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