the islanders have absolutely no reason to do this. they get a worse player at much, much, much worse contractual situation.

carolina never does that. the value is brutal.

marner gets more.

the cap is lower.

Lots of work to be done.

Why is everybody trading for Boone Jenner immidiatelly, has Eklund posted another BS article?

How about we just leave Kadri at 3C? unnecessary lateral move

Carolina trade seems like equal value. I feel like with Bracco, Moore, Nylander, Marner at RW, Kapanen becomes expendable for a D (and Moore/Bracco are much cheaper)

Finally, a Pesce deal in the real world.

That Zaitsev trade would have to include a second and a third from us in order to persuade Lamoriello. Their on-ice value isn't much different, but the contractual difference between Zaitsev and Mayfield make that imperative.

I just disagree on a number of fronts
Kap is 50pt forward with upside, pesce is a 30pt def first Defenceman. Pesce doesn’t project to increase in value in comparison to kap.
Both have a high amount of team control.
Brown > than McGinn just to make sure things get close to even

Marner and Tavares are my favourite leafs, in saying that he is already getting more than kuch not sure how much more he has the power to get. As they are similar players and kuch has outdone him and has a longer track record

Projecting the cap is tough but I have 780000 in room can’t see NHLPA not inflating it to make this team work

Not going to argue with the zaitsev trade. I have very little concern with that trade makes sense to me, why both teams win.

I’m fine with some draft picks evening things out. Not a major point of concern

I love kadri, I think as our 3C he gets slightly under untilized. I used Jenner as a substitute to shave a little cap space and he places LW better than kadri
Kadri for Jenner = little more cap, maybe slightly less points and more versatility in the same mold of player

I agree except on marner. You think he gets over 10?

if it's over three years there is no question he'll get over 10. If it's 7 years it's definitely over 11.

He’s great but I don’t think he’s on that level. This year he’ll probably get short of 100 points but last year he didn’t even crack 70. I think you gotta show at least TWO seasons of PPG consistency to crack 8 figures. Same with Point. I think they’ll both be short of 10 million.

I’d say we’ll see, but I’m so confident in this that I’ll just say, you’ll see

I really don't understand the amount of confidence you have in this lol.

you're 100% confident that Mitch Marner will get:
4+ yrs = 10+ million?
7+ yrs = 11+ million?

And the basis for this is what? His hardware? His playoff successes? His point-per-game pace on his ELC? His future projection?

At the end of their ELCs, is he closer to Johnny Gaudreau or Patrick Kane?

Exactly. I agree 100%. Aside from this year he hasn’t been outstanding. He doesn’t deserve Matthews money imo

Lots of centers have gotten big paydays off their ELC's... seems like it's a little harder to find elite wingers to compare.

Kane's contract coming off his ELC (1 cup win, 72+70+88 pts in 1+2+3 seasons, 0.94 ppg, Calder trophy) is equal to a 5 x 9.2m deal at next year's cap.

Gaudreau off his ELC (64+78 pts in 2+3 seasons, 0.89 ppg) would be equal to 6 x 7.68m deal at next year's cap.

Marner (61+69+97 in 1+2+3 seasons, 0.93 ppg) would probably fall somewhere in between those two...

maybe

5 x 8.5m
6 x 9.0m
7 x 9.5m
8 x 10.0m

but I really don't know how the scale slides as you add more UFA years tbh. Either way, I don't see any AAV eclipsing $11 and if it's $10 or more, I think the Leafs are getting burned.

I love those numbers. I think that’s a great and fair contract breakdown comparing it to similar players relative to inflation.

Wait and see. I’m sure he thinks he’s as good as Matthews. If the deal takes him to ufa I can’t see him taking more than a million less than Matthews. I would expect:
1x8
2x8.5
3x9
5x10
6x10.75
7x11.5
8x12

The league has changed

Disappointed. This is the 2019-20 Leafs. I thought it was going to be the 1920 Leafs.

good point, you've changed my mind

For real, do you think Marner is a better player than Kane was in 2010? Let's not even account for the fact that cup winners get serious paydays. I think you're looking at Matthews v Marner when you should be looking at Marner vs comparable wingers. I also can't overlook the facts surrounding Marner's huge season - he's playing with a top-10 NHL center who himself is having a career year.

(1) Tavares is notorious for inflating his wingers' numbers
(2) Marner's possession stats without Tavares are not pretty, not to say Marner doesn't pull his weight but they're seriously special together, it's not a one-man show on that line

I'm not trying to take away from Marner, I think he's easily a top-10 RW in the game. But I don't think there is anything underlying that suggests that Marner has another level over what he's doing right now (or that he's been cheated this year), and I don't think you could justify paying him any more than what the /winger/ comps have been lately. If anything, he's hitting a performance peak and should take the biggest, longest contract available to him.

I don’t think he’s better than Kane was. I think it’s very similar. The league has shifted however, and players are getting bigger deals off their entry level contracts. They set the bar with the Matthews deal. Marner isn’t taking significantly less with a team friendly term in my opinion.

Remember 6 weeks ago when half this board was saying that Matthews would get 8x10.5 because that’s what Eichel got? Things have changed.

nothing would surprise me at this point. maybe they did sorta shaft themselves with the matthews deal. we will see but I don't think he gets close to matthews' money

Thats kind of a vague statement. Players are getting bigger deals because the cap has gone up. Is there proof that they are getting bigger percentages of the cap off their elc? i dunno

AK's comparables are pretty spot on. Leafs will be bringing similar numbers to the negotiations. Maybe Marner gets more, but market value says he shouldn't be getting more than 10. We'll see

My personal opinion is that centremen and goals come at a premium in this league. Obviously that sounds like a perfect arguement against marner, but its also not exactly a new thought. Gotta believe marner gets a long term deal. my money is on 7-8 years, 9-10 million

And then his agent says, “my client had more points per game this year than a player you just gave 5x11.634 to. That player is a -3, mine is a +24.”

If he demanded the same deal as Matthews got, and wouldn’t budge, he’d get it from them or someone else.

totally possible. But something tells me if it comes down to 10 million from toronto or 13 from the islanders...hell pick toronto

Why? Players take the most money. Almost always