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To all those who think Marner should be making North of 10 mil

Created by: BCAPP
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 21, 2019
Published: Mar. 21, 2019
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
What do you think Rantanen, Point, Aho, and Tkachuk should sign for?

Bonus points if you can predict Laine because that one is super unique


My thoughts of who has earned the most to least valuable contract

Point-Hes a center, not a winger. He's a goal scorer and likely to score 40 goals. That has a lot of value.
Rantanen/Aho tie- Rantanen second highest goal scorer. Aho is a little behind in point total but is a center and also has by far the worst line mates of these guys
Marner-Similar points to Rantanen and Point but significantly less goals than both, and a winger compared to Point and Aho as centres
Tkachuk- a decent but behind the others in points. Is ahead of marner in goals.

Laine is ridiculously hard to figure out what he is worth. He had 2 teenage seasons that looked like he could be a generational goal scorer and then has crapped the bed since December 1st. The only answer that makes sense to me is a bridge. But even then pure guess
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
7$9,160,000
8$8,250,000
8$9,500,000
8$9,500,000
8$10,750,000
2$6,000,000
Trades
1.
TOR
  1. Aho, Sebastian [RFA Rights]
CAR
    A ham sandwich
    2.
    TOR
    1. Rantanen, Mikko [RFA Rights]
    COL
      A cold one
      3.
      TOR
      1. Tkachuk, Matthew [RFA Rights]
      CGY
        A shiny object
        4.
        TOR
        1. Point, Brayden [RFA Rights]
        TBL
          A ham sandwich with cheese
          5.
          TOR
          1. Laine, Patrik [RFA Rights]
          WPG
            A Timmy's coffee
            Retained Salary Transactions
            DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
            2020
            Logo of the TOR
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            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the EDM
            Logo of the SJS
            2021
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            2022
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
            6$83,000,000$54,360,000$0$0$28,640,000
            Left WingCentreRight Wing
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $9,160,000$9,160,000
            RW
            UFA - 6
            $9,500,000$9,500,000
            RW, C
            UFA - 6
            $9,500,000$9,500,000
            C
            UFA - 5
            $8,250,000$8,250,000
            RW
            UFA - 3
            $10,750,000$10,750,000
            C, RW
            UFA - 3
            $6,000,000$6,000,000
            C, RW, LW
            UFA - 2
            Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
            ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $11,000,000$11,000,000
            C, LW
            NMC
            UFA - 6
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $2,250,000$2,250,000
            RW, LW
            M-NTC
            UFA - 2
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $2,100,000$2,100,000
            RW, LW
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $775,000$775,000
            C, LW, RW
            UFA - 2
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $4,500,000$4,500,000
            C
            M-NTC
            UFA - 3
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $11,634,000$11,634,000
            C
            UFA - 5
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $6,962,366$6,962,366
            RW
            UFA - 5
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $5,300,000$5,300,000
            RW
            M-NTC, NMC
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $775,000$775,000
            LW, RW
            UFA - 2
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $675,000$675,000
            C
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $4,500,000$4,500,000
            RD
            M-NTC
            UFA - 5
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $863,333$863,333
            LD/RD
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $5,000,000$5,000,000
            LD
            UFA - 3
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $4,000,000$4,000,000
            LD
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $675,000$675,000
            RD
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $5,000,000$5,000,000
            G
            M-NTC
            UFA - 2
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $700,000$700,000
            LW, C
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $750,000$750,000
            G
            UFA - 1

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            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:07 p.m.
            #1
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            Problem with Marner is the taxes.

            Point will sign for something like 7 Million in Tampa, which would be roughly what Marner will make after taxes if he signs for 10 M in Toronto.
            sabres1108 liked this.
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:10 p.m.
            #2
            MK458
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            Point plays in Tampa, with considerably lower taxes and the lightnighy is by far the best team in the league. He deserves more than Marner, but their contracts could end up being a very similar AAV because of those two factors. The issue here is that Marner, Marner’s family, and Marner’s agent believe that Marner is every bit as good as Matthews is. So with Matthews giant contract, he will be the comparable used in negotiations.
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            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:10 p.m.
            #3
            hey look a squirrel
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            I also think Marner will sign from 9 to 10 million per year.
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            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:11 p.m.
            #4
            hey look a squirrel
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            Quoting: mk458
            Point plays in Tampa, with considerably lower taxes and the lightnighy is by far the best team in the league. He deserves more than Marner, but their contracts could end up being a very similar AAV because of those two factors. The issue here is that Marner, Marner’s family, and Marner’s agent believe that Marner is every bit as good as Matthews is. So with Matthews giant contract, he will be the comparable used in negotiations.


            I disagree, the direct comparison for Marner is Ratanen.
            And Ratanen should get more than Marner.
            BCAPP liked this.
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:13 p.m.
            #5
            MK458
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            Quoting: Trickster
            I disagree, the direct comparison for Marner is Ratanen.


            I was saying that for Marner’s agent they’ll use Matthews as a comparable. Obviously Rantanen is a better one, and Dubas will use him. Sorry for the confusion
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:15 p.m.
            #6
            What in tarnation
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            My predictions are:

            Point = $9M x 6
            Marner = $10,366 x 6
            Aho = $9M x 8
            Rantanen = $10M x 8
            Tkachuk = $8,75M x 7
            Laine = $9,5M x 6
            NucksFanForLife liked this.
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:15 p.m.
            #7
            Shibbal18
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            Rantanen is getting over 10
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            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:21 p.m.
            #8
            Subbanator
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            I think the bigger question is who signs an offer sheet to force a teams hand first?

            One player is going to sign first and the parade will start but if some make it to July 1st, which I think a couple are, one of them may get an offer they cant refuse.

            I also think that this is going to make a for a really interesting draft because teams will be looking to shed cap gor these players
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:26 p.m.
            #9
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            Guessing what I think they will sign for (if all go for 8 years) not what they are worth:

            Marner 9.75 mil x 8
            Aho 9.00 mil x 8
            Rantanen 9.00 mil x 8
            Point 8.25 mil x 8
            Tkachuk 8.25 mil x 8
            Laine 8.25 mil x 8

            Bonus:
            Boeser 6.75 mil x 4
            Meier 5.5 mil x 4
            Connor 5.5 mil x 4
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:28 p.m.
            #10
            LongtimeLeafsufferer
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            I know Marner and his agent will try to compare his salary to Matthews and Nylander who were overpaid by the Leafs. But the real comparables should be with other NHL players.
            You're right BCAPP, everyone seems to think the Leafs have to overpay their RFAs....but seemingly not other teams.
            blowing_the_zone liked this.
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:34 p.m.
            #11
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            Quoting: BurgerBoss
            My predictions are:

            Point = $9M x 6
            Marner = $10,366 x 6
            Aho = $9M x 8
            Rantanen = $10M x 8
            Tkachuk = $8,75M x 7
            Laine = $9,5M x 6


            Why do you think Aho do much lower than Rantanen/Marner? He is a c (worth more) and way ****tier line mates.
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:34 p.m.
            #12
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            marner probably gets less years than the rest because Toronto simply cant afford to give him 11 or 12 a year for 7 or 8 years, which also translates to a lower aav. Maybe 3 year 8million aav?

            Laine also probably gets a shorter deal because he started out his career on fire and now froze over. So which guy are you paying for, possibly the best goal scorer in the entire league or what he has shown lately. maybe 2 or 3 years, 6million?

            Rantanen is one that the team can afford to do 8 years, so the question is aav, I would guess about 10 or 10.5 but im really not sure.
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:35 p.m.
            #13
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            Quoting: sabres1108
            Guessing what I think they will sign for (if all go for 8 years) not what they are worth:

            Marner 9.75 mil x 8
            Aho 9.00 mil x 8
            Rantanen 9.00 mil x 8
            Point 8.25 mil x 8
            Tkachuk 8.25 mil x 8
            Laine 8.25 mil x 8

            Bonus:
            Boeser 6.75 mil x 4
            Meier 5.5 mil x 4
            Connor 5.5 mil x 4


            I think boeser and Connor get more. I haven't checked in on Connor in a bit but how is he comparing to Ehlers when they signed him a couple years ago?
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:36 p.m.
            #14
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            Quoting: Shibbal18
            Rantanen is getting over 10


            So I don't follow Colorado media at all. Is that the feeling out there? The few AGMs I've seen here are below 10
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:37 p.m.
            #15
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            Quoting: palhal
            I know Marner and his agent will try to compare his salary to Matthews and Nylander who were overpaid by the Leafs. But the real comparables should be with other NHL players.
            You're right BCAPP, everyone seems to think the Leafs have to overpay their RFAs....but seemingly not other teams.


            its because the leafs already showed a willingness to overpay their rfas. Marner will be compared with Matthews because its the same team and their performances aren't too different.
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:41 p.m.
            #16
            What in tarnation
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            Quoting: BCAPP
            Why do you think Aho do much lower than Rantanen/Marner? He is a c (worth more) and way ****tier line mates.


            Simply because CAR can't afford to pay maximum sums because they can't afford to. They have obviously the cap space, but they are never close to the salary cap because as a small team they don't have that much money.
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            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:42 p.m.
            #17
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            Quoting: mk458
            Point plays in Tampa, with considerably lower taxes and the lightnighy is by far the best team in the league. He deserves more than Marner, but their contracts could end up being a very similar AAV because of those two factors. The issue here is that Marner, Marner’s family, and Marner’s agent believe that Marner is every bit as good as Matthews is. So with Matthews giant contract, he will be the comparable used in negotiations.


            Quoting: jordant89
            Problem with Marner is the taxes.

            Point will sign for something like 7 Million in Tampa, which would be roughly what Marner will make after taxes if he signs for 10 M in Toronto.


            The taxes thing is quite exaggerated by people not understanding how the taxes work. For players who play in an American market you are charged at the tax rate of when you earn the money. Ie when you're in New York, you pay New York taxes, when you're playing a game in la you pay California taxes. So the tax break only applies to home games (I am not sure about Canadian away games. May apply there as well). Remember also that while these states don't have state taxes they still have significant budgets and need to make their money somewhere so they pay higher taxes in other areas (one area is often property tax). Living there will eat into some more of their money in other ways.

            Now Toronto is for sure a higher tax environment and Tampa a lower one, but a lot of the estimates out there of like 30% differences are large exaggerations. These guys (should at least) be paying accountants to optimize their tax situation and are likely looking at significantly less difference.
            mhockey91 liked this.
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:43 p.m.
            #18
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            Quoting: awesome
            its because the leafs already showed a willingness to overpay their rfas. Marner will be compared with Matthews because its the same team and their performances aren't too different.


            Matthews is a center who since entering the league as a teenager had been scoring goals at the second best pace in the league.

            Marner went back to junior for a year. Entered the league a year later. Played pretty damn good for two years, then excellent for one. Marners family and agent can and should TRY to argue they're on the same level. But they're not and should t be paid as such.
            blowing_the_zone liked this.
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:44 p.m.
            #19
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            Quoting: BCAPP
            I think boeser and Connor get more. I haven't checked in on Connor in a bit but how is he comparing to Ehlers when they signed him a couple years ago?




            Ehlers makes 6 I dont see them giving Connor more than that if anything theyd have the same cap hit
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:55 p.m.
            #20
            Shibbal18
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            Quoting: BCAPP
            So I don't follow Colorado media at all. Is that the feeling out there? The few AGMs I've seen here are below 10


            They have cap, they may as well lock him down and for 8 years i assume the going rate is at least 80 mill, id assume it would match like Eichels contract
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:55 p.m.
            #21
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            Quoting: jordant89
            Problem with Marner is the taxes.

            Point will sign for something like 7 Million in Tampa, which would be roughly what Marner will make after taxes if he signs for 10 M in Toronto.


            Quoting: mk458
            Point plays in Tampa, with considerably lower taxes and the lightnighy is by far the best team in the league. He deserves more than Marner, but their contracts could end up being a very similar AAV because of those two factors. The issue here is that Marner, Marner’s family, and Marner’s agent believe that Marner is every bit as good as Matthews is. So with Matthews giant contract, he will be the comparable used in negotiations.


            tax is so misconceived on this site lmao and I'm an audit student so its probably my number one pet peeve
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:57 p.m.
            #22
            Formerly Jamiepo
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            Quoting: awesome
            its because the leafs already showed a willingness to overpay their rfas. Marner will be compared with Matthews because its the same team and their performances aren't too different.


            That comparable can be applied to any team.... something to keep in mind.

            Quoting: sabres1108
            Guessing what I think they will sign for (if all go for 8 years) not what they are worth:

            Marner 9.75 mil x 8
            Aho 9.00 mil x 8
            Rantanen 9.00 mil x 8
            Point 8.25 mil x 8
            Tkachuk 8.25 mil x 8
            Laine 8.25 mil x 8

            Bonus:
            Boeser 6.75 mil x 4
            Meier 5.5 mil x 4
            Connor 5.5 mil x 4


            Quoting: BurgerBoss
            My predictions are:

            Point = $9M x 6
            Marner = $10,366 x 6
            Aho = $9M x 8
            Rantanen = $10M x 8
            Tkachuk = $8,75M x 7
            Laine = $9,5M x 6


            So both of you seem to think marner is going to get more than Rantanen...

            Last 2 seasons...

            Rantanen 154gp 60g 111a 171p
            Marner 156gp 47g 108a 155p

            One of these players is playing for their home town team which is a cap strapped contender. How anyone thinks that Marner is making more than him is beyond me. I could certainly see them taking the same amount.

            The argument of leafs other rfa’s Is pointless as any player in the league can point to them.
            blowing_the_zone and BCAPP liked this.
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 8:58 p.m.
            #23
            Formerly Jamiepo
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            Quoting: BurgerBoss
            Simply because CAR can't afford to pay maximum sums because they can't afford to. They have obviously the cap space, but they are never close to the salary cap because as a small team they don't have that much money.


            Hmmm... leafs don’t have the cap space... so can we pay marner less?
            blowing_the_zone liked this.
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 9:02 p.m.
            #24
            Formerly Jamiepo
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            Now for my guesses...

            Rantanen 10.5m
            Marner 10.5m
            Aho 10.25m x 5 years
            Tkachuk 9.25m
            Point 10m
            Laine 7.5m x 2 years.
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 9:06 p.m.
            #25
            Shibbal18
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            Quoting: BCAPP
            The taxes thing is quite exaggerated by people not understanding how the taxes work. For players who play in an American market you are charged at the tax rate of when you earn the money. Ie when you're in New York, you pay New York taxes, when you're playing a game in la you pay California taxes. So the tax break only applies to home games (I am not sure about Canadian away games. May apply there as well). Remember also that while these states don't have state taxes they still have significant budgets and need to make their money somewhere so they pay higher taxes in other areas (one area is often property tax). Living there will eat into some more of their money in other ways.

            Now Toronto is for sure a higher tax environment and Tampa a lower one, but a lot of the estimates out there of like 30% differences are large exaggerations. These guys (should at least) be paying accountants to optimize their tax situation and are likely looking at significantly less difference.


            Taxes are different in canada. Also players dont pay taxes for the away games, thatd be ridiculous (even in jobs where you travel, that would be a nightmare.) Theyre salaried so all their state taxes are from the state where their team is located. Unless their residence is in a different US state, which how that states addresses income earned in a different state varies but they also pay income taxe in the state it is earned. But even then were talking 3 to 5% differences in the US (for a US citizen)
            NucksFanForLife liked this.
             
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