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To all those who think Marner should be making North of 10 mil

Created by: BCAPP
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 21, 2019
Published: Mar. 21, 2019
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
What do you think Rantanen, Point, Aho, and Tkachuk should sign for?

Bonus points if you can predict Laine because that one is super unique


My thoughts of who has earned the most to least valuable contract

Point-Hes a center, not a winger. He's a goal scorer and likely to score 40 goals. That has a lot of value.
Rantanen/Aho tie- Rantanen second highest goal scorer. Aho is a little behind in point total but is a center and also has by far the worst line mates of these guys
Marner-Similar points to Rantanen and Point but significantly less goals than both, and a winger compared to Point and Aho as centres
Tkachuk- a decent but behind the others in points. Is ahead of marner in goals.

Laine is ridiculously hard to figure out what he is worth. He had 2 teenage seasons that looked like he could be a generational goal scorer and then has crapped the bed since December 1st. The only answer that makes sense to me is a bridge. But even then pure guess
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
7$9,160,000
8$8,250,000
8$9,500,000
8$9,500,000
8$10,750,000
2$6,000,000
Trades
1.
TOR
  1. Aho, Sebastian [RFA Rights]
CAR
    A ham sandwich
    2.
    TOR
    1. Rantanen, Mikko [RFA Rights]
    COL
      A cold one
      3.
      TOR
      1. Tkachuk, Matthew [RFA Rights]
      CGY
        A shiny object
        4.
        TOR
        1. Point, Brayden [RFA Rights]
        TBL
          A ham sandwich with cheese
          5.
          TOR
          1. Laine, Patrik [RFA Rights]
          WPG
            A Timmy's coffee
            Retained Salary Transactions
            DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
            2020
            Logo of the TOR
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            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the EDM
            Logo of the SJS
            2021
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            2022
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            Logo of the TOR
            ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
            6$83,000,000$54,360,000$0$0$28,640,000
            Left WingCentreRight Wing
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $9,160,000$9,160,000
            RW
            UFA - 6
            $9,500,000$9,500,000
            RW, C
            UFA - 6
            $9,500,000$9,500,000
            C
            UFA - 5
            $8,250,000$8,250,000
            RW
            UFA - 3
            $10,750,000$10,750,000
            C, RW
            UFA - 3
            $6,000,000$6,000,000
            C, RW, LW
            UFA - 2
            Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
            ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $11,000,000$11,000,000
            C, LW
            NMC
            UFA - 6
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $2,250,000$2,250,000
            RW, LW
            M-NTC
            UFA - 2
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $2,100,000$2,100,000
            RW, LW
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $775,000$775,000
            C, LW, RW
            UFA - 2
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $4,500,000$4,500,000
            C
            M-NTC
            UFA - 3
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $11,634,000$11,634,000
            C
            UFA - 5
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $6,962,366$6,962,366
            RW
            UFA - 5
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $5,300,000$5,300,000
            RW
            M-NTC, NMC
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $775,000$775,000
            LW, RW
            UFA - 2
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $675,000$675,000
            C
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $4,500,000$4,500,000
            RD
            M-NTC
            UFA - 5
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $863,333$863,333
            LD/RD
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $5,000,000$5,000,000
            LD
            UFA - 3
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $4,000,000$4,000,000
            LD
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $675,000$675,000
            RD
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $5,000,000$5,000,000
            G
            M-NTC
            UFA - 2
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $700,000$700,000
            LW, C
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
            $750,000$750,000
            G
            UFA - 1

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            Mar. 21, 2019 at 9:07 p.m.
            #26
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            Edited Mar. 21, 2019 at 9:37 p.m.
            Stop making sense, Dubarelli already proved us idiots, fighting all those gloaters over months claiming how Nylander, Matthews and Marner will get more then they should.

            Nylander : 61 + 61........................got him 6 x 7,2M ( 600k overpayment )

            Matthews : 69 + 63 + "75".....got him 5 x 11,634 ( or in terms of McDavids contract lenght 8 x 15M, so 4M overpayment, ofc assuming hes on same gameplay level as McDavid )

            Marner : 61 + 69 + "90"....actualy the only one who should demand more then was predicting he would sign at summer 2018 ( 8 x 9M was offered from his side, most of us were giving him 7 x 7M ), luckily for him he is riding with Elite Tavares to boost his numbers at wrong time.
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 9:23 p.m.
            #27
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            Quoting: BCAPP
            Matthews is a center who since entering the league as a teenager had been scoring goals at the second best pace in the league.

            Marner went back to junior for a year. Entered the league a year later. Played pretty damn good for two years, then excellent for one. Marners family and agent can and should TRY to argue they're on the same level. But they're not and should t be paid as such.


            Matthews played 1 pro season in Europe. You forgot to mention that.
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 9:27 p.m.
            #28
            LongtimeLeafsufferer
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            Quoting: awesome
            marner probably gets less years than the rest because Toronto simply cant afford to give him 11 or 12 a year for 7 or 8 years, which also translates to a lower aav. Maybe 3 year 8million aav?

            Laine also probably gets a shorter deal because he started out his career on fire and now froze over. So which guy are you paying for, possibly the best goal scorer in the entire league or what he has shown lately. maybe 2 or 3 years, 6million?



            Rantanen is one that the team can afford to do 8 years, so the question is aav, I would guess about 10 or 10.5 but im really not sure.


            What' a the "can afford" shouldn't be a factor. It's a player NHL value. So the should the Senators pay their best player 12.5m, because they can afford it?
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 9:29 p.m.
            #29
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            Quoting: Jamiepo
            That comparable can be applied to any team.... something to keep in mind.





            So both of you seem to think marner is going to get more than Rantanen...

            Last 2 seasons...

            Rantanen 154gp 60g 111a 171p
            Marner 156gp 47g 108a 155p

            One of these players is playing for their home town team which is a cap strapped contender. How anyone thinks that Marner is making more than him is beyond me. I could certainly see them taking the same amount.

            The argument of leafs other rfa’s Is pointless as any player in the league can point to them.


            Tired to say it many times, but why I think Marner's cap hit is bigger is because of taxes and whatnot. Colorado is much more tax friendly. Even if Marner's getting $10,366,000 as I predicted, it's still less than what Rantanen's gonna hold.

            See here: https://gavingroup.ca/nhl-tax-calculator/

            According to this, $10,366,000 in Toronto is roughly over $9M in Colorado.
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            Mar. 21, 2019 at 9:30 p.m.
            #30
            What in tarnation
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            Quoting: Jamiepo
            Hmmm... leafs don’t have the cap space... so can we pay marner less?


            In your case, it's about team building. With smaller teams, the reality is that their salary cap is lower than others in a manner of speaking.
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 9:37 p.m.
            #31
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            Edited Mar. 21, 2019 at 9:42 p.m.
            $ 9.3 million for Marner, that was his Jr League jersey #. It is also a fair number for him.
            Rantanen should make 10 +.
            Laine 8-9.
            Point will probably take less than Stamkos, so 8 ish.
            Aho and Tkachuk both under 8
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 9:39 p.m.
            #32
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            Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
            $ 9.3 million for Marner, that was his Jr League jersey #. It is also a fair number for him.


            With current TML trend thats 4 years contract
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 9:43 p.m.
            #33
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            Quoting: Laudan
            With current TML trend thats 4 years contract


            I'd say 3 years, just to retain his RFA rights.
            I also say Kapanen takes a bridge deal meanwhile Johnsson signs for 4-5 years to reach his UFA rights.
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 9:45 p.m.
            #34
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            Quoting: BCAPP
            The taxes thing is quite exaggerated by people not understanding how the taxes work. For players who play in an American market you are charged at the tax rate of when you earn the money. Ie when you're in New York, you pay New York taxes, when you're playing a game in la you pay California taxes. So the tax break only applies to home games (I am not sure about Canadian away games. May apply there as well). Remember also that while these states don't have state taxes they still have significant budgets and need to make their money somewhere so they pay higher taxes in other areas (one area is often property tax). Living there will eat into some more of their money in other ways.

            Now Toronto is for sure a higher tax environment and Tampa a lower one, but a lot of the estimates out there of like 30% differences are large exaggerations. These guys (should at least) be paying accountants to optimize their tax situation and are likely looking at significantly less difference.


            There’s a massive misconception that players like Rantanen and Aho will sign for almost nothing (7-8) and Marner will sign for almost twice that. Also, there is misconception that Point could take less because he knows the team’s cap situation. That’s totally wrong. A team will be payed what he thinks that he is worth. The Cap is set up based on that philosophy. I’ll break down the aforementioned players the best I can banking that all of them push for what they are worth.

            Point: I hate blowing the taxes horn, but it’s honestly true - though not to the normally conceived extent. 15% is the difference between Florida and Ontario. I’m going to put him at 9.5x8 because Kucherov made the same off a 100 point year. Point isn’t Kucherov - maybe one day, but he’s massively benefitting from Kucherov’s dominant year and a loaded team. He’s still hugely valuable, but not more than Kucherov.

            Rantanen: Honestly I haven’t heard a ton about his contract ballpark. There’s no Colorado contracts similar at all to him, but I’m going to have to say that he’s looking at players around the league and taking a Point comparable. 9.25x8 is my guess. Less than Point even though he almost equals him in points, but as a winger he’ll make less.

            Aho: Easily the most underrated of the group, he’s a 90 point center on a middling team with bad teammates. Carolina doesn’t overpay guys, and they just gave a 60 point winger less than 6, so I trust that they’ll be good with negotiating Aho. The kid deserves a ton and he’s not making less than 9x8 which is my guess.

            Marner: His contract comparable is unfortunately a luxurious Matthews deal, and on a Point deal he makes 11. He’s not a center, and though Toronto overpays RFAs and property, income, and sales taxes are high as well as the general cost of living, he still makes less than Point’s tax adjusted comparable. And he’s not Matthews. My honest guess is 10.5x6. I hate saying it, but Marner thinks he worth Matthews money. So Dubas will have to back off on the term.

            Tkachuk: Slightly inflated by an incredible top six and PP, he’s not quite what the others are, and though he lives in Canada I’m still going to have to drop below 9 on him. He won’t destroy Gaudreau’s deal, so I’m going for a 7.75x6. He worth more and will be a 10 million guy after the 6 year deal. He goes close to 9 on an 8 year deal, but Calgary doesn’t overspend and gave Gaudreau an underwhelming contract after a similar year, so I think Tkachuk ups him. I could easily see a 8x6 though.

            Laine: is a mess, but he shouldn’t be given up in yet. Winnipeg is in a huge cap crunch and can’t afford to dump a Johnsson/Kapanen/Miller/Gourde like other teams - they don’t really have any to trade - so Laine will have to be bridged. He’s also in Canada so a 8.5x3 looks good to me.

            I’m sorry if this looks skewed against Marner, I just can’t help it TBH. The evidence is piled against Dubas and he likely gets 8 digits this year unless a bridge happens.
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 10:01 p.m.
            #35
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            Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
            Matthews played 1 pro season in Europe. You forgot to mention that.


            He did that predraft. I am comparing what they've done since being drafted...
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 10:02 p.m.
            #36
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            Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
            $ 9.3 million for Marner, that was his Jr League jersey #. It is also a fair number for him.
            Rantanen should make 10 +.
            Laine 8-9.
            Point will probably take less than Stamkos, so 8 ish.
            Aho and Tkachuk both under 8


            Aho under 8? Wow
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 10:05 p.m.
            #37
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            Quoting: Jamiepo
            That comparable can be applied to any team.... something to keep in mind.


            Marner is better than Rantanen

            stats aren’t everything

            even still if Marner played with Mackinnon hed have more points JT is no Mackinnon

            Rantanen has 2 points in 9 games since being split up with 29


            So both of you seem to think marner is going to get more than Rantanen...

            Last 2 seasons...

            Rantanen 154gp 60g 111a 171p
            Marner 156gp 47g 108a 155p

            One of these players is playing for their home town team which is a cap strapped contender. How anyone thinks that Marner is making more than him is beyond me. I could certainly see them taking the same amount.

            The argument of leafs other rfa’s Is pointless as any player in the league can point to them.
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 10:11 p.m.
            #38
            MK458
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            Quoting: mhockey91
            tax is so misconceived on this site lmao and I'm an audit student so its probably my number one pet peeve


            Lol I don't agree with the other guy saying 7 mill is the same as 10, that's ridiculous. But it does make a small difference, and every single dollar towards the cap is important I'm a finance major myself.
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 10:18 p.m.
            #39
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            Quoting: Shibbal18
            Taxes are different in canada. Also players dont pay taxes for the away games, thatd be ridiculous (even in jobs where you travel, that would be a nightmare.) Theyre salaried so all their state taxes are from the state where their team is located. Unless their residence is in a different US state, which how that states addresses income earned in a different state varies but they also pay income taxe in the state it is earned. But even then were talking 3 to 5% differences in the US (for a US citizen)


            https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2017/04/18/income-taxes-for-pro-athletes-are-reminder-of-how-complicated-u-s-tax-code/amp/

            Some excerpts for you

            "LeBron James was the highest-paid athlete in the U.S. last year with more than $80 million from salary and endorsements. King James will pay his fair share of taxes, but the level of complication for James and his financial team when they are filing is off the charts since he earned money in at least the 21 states where NBA teams are located."

            Ie James has to pay taxes everywhere he's played

            "Athletes file taxes not only in their home state but also in every state—and some cities—in which they play. "

            The tax code is so convoluted between each city and state that all these calculators are so oversimplified to be almost useless. Some states give credits, some calculate by days work, some by games, some include preseason, some don't. Some literally treat different sports differently. Some probably also tax investments differently (which is damn important if these athletes are trying to set themselves up for the future).

            Then remember that a lot of these people aren't citizens and may owe taxes to their home country too.

            The situation is SO complicated and SO oversimplified by these ridiculous online calculators or statements by some person tv. You can't just toss the state tax rate in and conpare. You have to literally look at each schedule, calculate that, figure out where there offseason home is, see if it can or should be declared their permanent residence. Then consider tax implications of endorsements, of investments. Then see what kind of modifications can be done based on when you fly, when you enter what country, where you own property, what private corporations or holding companies you've created and so much more that is beyond me.

            In the end it is true that the tax free states will save the players money on taxes. But the calculators and estimators tossed out there are almost always based on just comparing the marginal rate in max earning which is such a ridiculous over simplification and important exaggerated difference.
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            Mar. 21, 2019 at 11:00 p.m.
            #40
            Shibbal18
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            Quoting: BCAPP
            https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2017/04/18/income-taxes-for-pro-athletes-are-reminder-of-how-complicated-u-s-tax-code/amp/

            Some excerpts for you

            "LeBron James was the highest-paid athlete in the U.S. last year with more than $80 million from salary and endorsements. King James will pay his fair share of taxes, but the level of complication for James and his financial team when they are filing is off the charts since he earned money in at least the 21 states where NBA teams are located."

            Ie James has to pay taxes everywhere he's played

            "Athletes file taxes not only in their home state but also in every state—and some cities—in which they play. "

            The tax code is so convoluted between each city and state that all these calculators are so oversimplified to be almost useless. Some states give credits, some calculate by days work, some by games, some include preseason, some don't. Some literally treat different sports differently. Some probably also tax investments differently (which is damn important if these athletes are trying to set themselves up for the future).

            Then remember that a lot of these people aren't citizens and may owe taxes to their home country too.

            The situation is SO complicated and SO oversimplified by these ridiculous online calculators or statements by some person tv. You can't just toss the state tax rate in and conpare. You have to literally look at each schedule, calculate that, figure out where there offseason home is, see if it can or should be declared their permanent residence. Then consider tax implications of endorsements, of investments. Then see what kind of modifications can be done based on when you fly, when you enter what country, where you own property, what private corporations or holding companies you've created and so much more that is beyond me.

            In the end it is true that the tax free states will save the players money on taxes. But the calculators and estimators tossed out there are almost always based on just comparing the marginal rate in max earning which is such a ridiculous over simplification and important exaggerated difference.


            Thats the Jock tax bill, its a seperate tax but i guess you can lump it in. It doesnt apply to canadian cities and only certain states. This is why we need smaller government
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 11:24 p.m.
            #41
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            No way marner gets under 10, Stone just signed 9.5 x8 in Vegas (Nevada Tax’s) you can bet Marner likes that contract as a direct comparison. Laine gets a lot less IMO then what people expect I’d be in the range of 2years x 6.5 AAV his defence needs work and his streaky scoring habits I think prohibit a lot of his value
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 11:28 p.m.
            #42
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            Quoting: DocArin0
            No way marner gets under 10, Stone just signed 9.5 x8 in Vegas (Nevada Tax’s) you can bet Marner likes that contract as a direct comparison. Laine gets a lot less IMO then what people expect I’d be in the range of 2years x 6.5 AAV his defence needs work and his streaky scoring habits I think prohibit a lot of his value


            So stone getting what he got should keep marners contract down. Stone is a UFA. Marner is a non arbitration eligible RFA. There is a big difference. Stone is also the best defensive winger in the game. Marner should make less than stone.
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 11:29 p.m.
            #43
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            Quoting: DocArin0
            No way marner gets under 10, Stone just signed 9.5 x8 in Vegas (Nevada Tax’s) you can bet Marner likes that contract as a direct comparison. Laine gets a lot less IMO then what people expect I’d be in the range of 2years x 6.5 AAV his defence needs work and his streaky scoring habits I think prohibit a lot of his value


            But again. Why just marner. What about Rantanen and point? Or aho?
            Mar. 21, 2019 at 11:31 p.m.
            #44
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            Quoting: BCAPP
            So stone getting what he got should keep marners contract down. Stone is a UFA. Marner is a non arbitration eligible RFA. There is a big difference. Stone is also the best defensive winger in the game. Marner should make less than stone.


            If you are Dubas that’s your argument; I am just speaking on marners agent POV and claim to get the most out of his contract, I don’t see this being a quick an easy contract I can see this going into mid-late sept
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            Mar. 21, 2019 at 11:32 p.m.
            #45
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            Quoting: BCAPP
            But again. Why just marner. What about Rantanen and point? Or aho?


            IMO: Rantanen 10.5-11.25 AHO 9.25 & Point anywhere from 9.75-10.75
            Mar. 22, 2019 at 12:56 a.m.
            #46
            Formerly Jamiepo
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            Quoting: Shibbal18
            Thats the Jock tax bill, its a seperate tax but i guess you can lump it in. It doesnt apply to canadian cities and only certain states. This is why we need smaller government


            Jock tax is certainly applicable to any state with income tax. Also find it funny that no one mentions that signing bonuses are only taxed at 25% here in Canada...
            Mar. 22, 2019 at 1:49 a.m.
            #47
            Shibbal18
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            Quoting: Jamiepo
            Jock tax is certainly applicable to any state with income tax. Also find it funny that no one mentions that signing bonuses are only taxed at 25% here in Canada...


            Its applicable but ever state treats it different. Thats true, but then you have owners like Melnyk who hates signing bonuses lol
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            Mar. 22, 2019 at 6:13 a.m.
            #48
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            Quoting: Jamiepo
            Jock tax is certainly applicable to any state with income tax. Also find it funny that no one mentions that signing bonuses are only taxed at 25% here in Canada...


            Really?
            Mar. 22, 2019 at 10:07 a.m.
            #49
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            Realistically, there will be a some precedence set this year so no know really knows what will happen. Kane is the only 10M+ winger currently and he doesn't quite compare to the these guys at this moment. Point should be the highest paid player of the bunch because he is a center, which generally have garnered higher cap hits than wingers.

            One thing is for sure though, I think it will all depend on who gets signed first. The first guy to sign will set the bar for each other guy in the list. So if Tkachuk for example signs for 7.5m (IMO), each guy will use that to make their case afterwards. If lets say Tkachuk gets 8.25M as mentioned above, expect everyone else on that list to hit 9.5M MINIMUM.
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            Mar. 22, 2019 at 10:25 a.m.
            #50
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            Quoting: F50marco
            Realistically, there will be a some precedence set this year so no know really knows what will happen. Kane is the only 10M+ winger currently and he doesn't quite compare to the these guys at this moment. Point should be the highest paid player of the bunch because he is a center, which generally have garnered higher cap hits than wingers.

            One thing is for sure though, I think it will all depend on who gets signed first. The first guy to sign will set the bar for each other guy in the list. So if Tkachuk for example signs for 7.5m (IMO), each guy will use that to make their case afterwards. If lets say Tkachuk gets 8.25M as mentioned above, expect everyone else on that list to hit 9.5M MINIMUM.


            I agree with most of this but not sure what you have against kane. He's third in the league in points with 101. Well ahead of all of these guys
             
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