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Why the Isles will have to pass on Panarin

Created by: Hawkisles
Team: 2019-20 New York Islanders
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 25, 2019
Published: Mar. 25, 2019
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Bad contracts. Lots of bad contracts. That's why.

As of the end of this season:

Ladd: 4 more years, 5.5m a year. Contract practically unmovable given his NTC and lack of production.
Bailey: 5 more years, 5m a year. Contract movable so long as he keeps producing above 50 points a season. So he's movable until we'll want to move him.
Clutterbuck: 3 more years, 3.5m a year. Contract unmovable on account of him being a 4th liner.
Cizikas: 2 more years, 3.35m a year. Contract potentially movable given a recent boost in offense. So he's movable until we'll want to move him.
Komarov: 3 more years, 3m a year. Contract unmovable on account of him being a 3rd liner at best and having a M-NTC.
Leddy: 3 more years, 5.5m a year. Contract potentially movable given good offensive production in past seasons, but if he does horribly next year, he'll be unmovable.
Boychuk: 3 more years, 6m a year. Contract unmovable given his age.

So, assuming the cap ceiling goes up by 2m a year, which is generous, we have the following amount of money paid out to bad (or a year or two away from being bad) contracts at certain benchmarks:

End of 2019-2020 season: 31.85m/81.5m (39% of our salary cap). Barzal, Pulock, and Toews will all need new contracts, which I'd say would collectively amount to 18m+.
End of 2020-2021 season: 28.5m/83.5m (34% of our salary cap). Pelech will need a new contract. Given how much the coaching staff seems tolike Pelech, I'd say he'd command 3m+.
End of 2021-2022 season: 11.5m/85.5m (13% of our salary cap).

Remember, this isn't our team's collective cap hit. This is an illustration of how much of our cap hit is dead money. And I'm sorry, if close to 40% of your resources are dead, I really don't see how the Isles can afford to fit a UFA big fish like Panarin or Duchene this offseason. I hate to say it, but we're in cap hell, and will be for a while. Sorry Garth Snow gave us so many horrid contracts.

So if you ask me, our financial window of opportunity is July 2021. There's really no telling who will be good by then on our team or any other team, so there's really no point in listing who will be available in Free Agency by then. So unless Lou uses that cap space to make a trade, it's unlikely that this window of opportunity gets used.

Still, we have a lot of good young players on our roster and many more promising prospects. I think all of Wahlstrom, Bellows, Wilde, Dobson and Koivula have an over 50% chance of cracking the NHL roster by then. And there's always the chance that Sorokin hops the pond and joins us in the next year or two. So while I don't rule out a good trade by Lou to nab a bargain contract to improve our roster, or better yet, a miracle trade to unload Ladd or Boychuk, I think Isles should be more hopeful about the long term than they should be hoping for one good run with Panarin on the roster.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
3$2,000,000
2$1,250,000
3$1,000,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
6$6,500,000
4$5,000,000
3$4,500,000
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2019
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2020
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Logo of the NYI
Logo of the NYI
Logo of the NYI
Logo of the NYI
Logo of the NYI
Logo of the NYI
2021
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$65,296,666$0$400,000$16,203,334
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the New York Islanders
$6,500,000$6,500,000
LW
UFA - 7
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$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
C, RW
UFA - 1
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$5,000,000$5,000,000
RW, LW, C
UFA - 5
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$5,500,000$5,500,000
LW
NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the New York Islanders
$5,000,000$5,000,000
C, LW
UFA - 6
Logo of the New York Islanders
$1,000,000$1,000,000
RW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the New York Islanders
$1,250,000$1,250,000
LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the New York Islanders
$2,000,000$2,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
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$3,000,000$3,000,000
RW, LW, C
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the New York Islanders
$2,500,000$2,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
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$3,350,000$3,350,000
C
UFA - 2
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$3,500,000$3,500,000
RW
UFA - 3
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$1,000,000$1,000,000
LW
UFA - 3
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$2,750,000$2,750,000
LD
UFA - 3
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$6,000,000$6,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
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$3,333,333$3,333,333
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the New York Islanders
$2,500,000$2,500,000
LD
UFA - 3
Logo of the New York Islanders
$2,000,000$2,000,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the New York Islanders
$700,000$700,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the New York Islanders
$1,450,000$1,450,000
RD
UFA - 4
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$4,500,000$4,500,000
G
UFA - 1
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$1,600,000$1,600,000
LD
UFA - 2

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Mar. 25, 2019 at 7:07 p.m.
#1
What in tarnation
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Cap ceiling rising for $2M is not really generous. In 2017-18 it was $75M, this year it's $79,5M and the next year is projected to be $83M. It's been rising for around $3,5M per year.
Mar. 25, 2019 at 7:30 p.m.
#2
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Quick Question; Would you accept a Zaitsev for Clutterbuck? 1 bad contract for another?
Mar. 25, 2019 at 9:21 p.m.
#3
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There is this beautiful thing they have called “buyout”. Buying out Ladd would help you big time. He would be your only buyout write off. Consider trading 1-2 moveable parts. Pay a B prospect and a 3rd to move another.
You have to ask yourself, is it worth it to lose a couple picks and lesser players to get a world class talent for 7 years? You then fill in a few up & coming prospects lower in the lineup. The talent Panarin brings helps to fill the gap. Just go for it. Otherwise, you probably will have to face Panarin 4-5 times a year when he plays against you with the Rangers.
Mar. 25, 2019 at 9:22 p.m.
#4
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I actually think you could move Cizikas and Clutterbuck, as teams do value their type of play. However, I do not think the Isles are even considering moving them (which I agree with you is a mistake). Nor do I believe that if Panarin comes to NY, it would be with the Islanders, but those are just my opinions. Only time will tell.
Mar. 25, 2019 at 9:24 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: Bluejackets2000
There is this beautiful thing they have called “buyout”. Buying out Ladd would help you big time. He would be your only buyout write off. Consider trading 1-2 moveable parts. Pay a B prospect and a 3rd to move another.
You have to ask yourself, is it worth it to lose a couple picks and lesser players to get a world class talent for 7 years? You then fill in a few up & coming prospects lower in the lineup. The talent Panarin brings helps to fill the gap. Just go for it. Otherwise, you probably will have to face him 4-5 times a year when he plays against you with the Rangers.


Buying out Ladd would leave him on the books for longer, and it does not really provide much of a cap hit. Here is a link to show you: https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/andrew-ladd/2019-06-15
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Mar. 25, 2019 at 9:37 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: rja
Buying out Ladd would leave him on the books for longer, and it does not really provide much of a cap hit. Here is a link to show you: https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/andrew-ladd/2019-06-15


Yeah, your screwed on his contract. I was trying a NYI team buying him out when you responded. It is the way his contract was structured, mostly salary bonus built in rather than base salary.

Dubinsky makes slightly more than Ladd, if you buy Dubi out, it is like 1/3 his salary for double the term left (about $1.85M).
Mar. 25, 2019 at 9:39 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: Bluejackets2000
Yeah, your screwed on his contract. I was trying a NYI team buying him out when you responded. It is the way his contract was structured, mostly salary bonus built in rather than base salary.

Dubinsky makes slightly more than Ladd, if you buy Dubi out, it is like 1/3 his salary for double the term left (about $1.85M).


A) I am not screwed because I am not NYI haha
B) I still think they can move their entire fourth line and easily replace them at cheaper salaries, so in theory they could land a free agent. I just think Panarin would not go there anyway.
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Mar. 26, 2019 at 2:18 a.m.
#8
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Quoting: DocArin0
Quick Question; Would you accept a Zaitsev for Clutterbuck? 1 bad contract for another?


Zaitsev's contract has more aav and more duration on it. I've seen Leafs fans desperately trying to get rid of Zaitsev, so I don't find that incredibly encouraging as a potential buyer. And with Clutterbuck, at least you know he's popular in the locker room. He has the "A" for a reason. He's a veteran who puts his body on the line every night and his teammates respect that. Finally, the Isles have depth, both now and in the futurre at RHD. Boychuk had a good season this year, Pulock looks like a #1 defenseman now and Mayfield has been surprisingly steady. Sure, Boychuk will decline very, very soon, but either Wilde or Dobson should be ready by then.

I'll pass on Zaitsev, but I'm sure there's a team out there with cap space and a need at RHD. Vancouver? Random suggestion.
Mar. 26, 2019 at 2:20 a.m.
#9
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Quoting: BurgerBoss
Cap ceiling rising for $2M is not really generous. In 2017-18 it was $75M, this year it's $79,5M and the next year is projected to be $83M. It's been rising for around $3,5M per year.


Worth considering, but I'd still say my point stands. You can't have that much of your cap hit taken up by contracts as bad as what the Isles have here.
Mar. 26, 2019 at 2:36 a.m.
#10
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Quoting: Bluejackets2000
There is this beautiful thing they have called “buyout”. Buying out Ladd would help you big time. He would be your only buyout write off. Consider trading 1-2 moveable parts. Pay a B prospect and a 3rd to move another.
You have to ask yourself, is it worth it to lose a couple picks and lesser players to get a world class talent for 7 years? You then fill in a few up & coming prospects lower in the lineup. The talent Panarin brings helps to fill the gap. Just go for it. Otherwise, you probably will have to face Panarin 4-5 times a year when he plays against you with the Rangers.


I'd say in order to trade movable parts (which at this point would be Leddy and Cizikas, maaayyybe Boychuk) you'd be leaving holes in the roster that would need to be filled, likely in Free Agency, and since the Isles are the Isles, they'd have to overpay. Sure, we'd get rid of Leddy, but he'd be replaced by a similarly expensive, just as risky defenseman. But if you're making the kind of trade to unload an objectively bad contract (like Ladd's, Clutterbuck's or Komarov's), you're giving up way more than a 3rd round pick and a B prospect. We had to give up a 1st rounder (which Vegas used to pick Brannstrom), a 2nd rounder and a two B prospects just to get rid of one year of Grabovski's 5m aav contract. Imagine trying to bribe a team into taking multiple years of a similarly bad contract. I would guess if we wanted a team to take Ladd's contract it would take a 1st, 2 2nds and a Bellows level prospect just to get rid of Ladd. While we could do that, we really shouldn't.

Also, let Panarin run to the Rangers. Yandle was supposed to make the Rangers contenders, Shattenkirk was supposed to make them contenders, Vesey was supposed to make them way better. If they get Panarin, sure, the Rangers will get better, but they're still a team with a weak roster. I see no reason to endanger our ability to hang on to Barzal, Pulock and Toews just to deny our struggling rivals a good skater. NYR will never be a serious Cup contender until they stop signing whoever happens to be the big name on the market and actually commit to a rebuild.
Mar. 26, 2019 at 7:01 a.m.
#11
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Keep in mind that:
1. Panarin makes those around him even better than they are.
2. You wouldn’t have to overpay for role players as much now, as the team has improved considerably
3. You have much better young talent you have drafted now that you could use to fill in the gaps, create more competition.
4. Your team leadership (front office, coaching) is much better now than in the recent past, which also helps in managing the numbers...
Not too long ago the the Isles offered Blue Jackets all 6 of their draft picks (#2-#7) to switch #1 picks with CBJ to take Ryan Murray. Talk about crazy. And Murray is very good, but seems to spend a lot of time on IR every year.
Mar. 27, 2019 at 4:02 p.m.
#12
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They'll be able to afford Panarin just fine. There's been some talk they may buyout Komarov this summer. And after the NHL goes on strike in a few years again, I think each team will get another freebie buy out and they'll buy out Ladd. He'll be on LTIR next year anyways. Leddy also probably gets moved this summer to help the top 6. Can't just sit around and do nothing.
Mar. 27, 2019 at 8:56 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: jaredb7
They'll be able to afford Panarin just fine. There's been some talk they may buyout Komarov this summer. And after the NHL goes on strike in a few years again, I think each team will get another freebie buy out and they'll buy out Ladd. He'll be on LTIR next year anyways. Leddy also probably gets moved this summer to help the top 6. Can't just sit around and do nothing.


I've often played devil's advocate with myself on moving Ladd. I did another stupid long post on it, by the way. Heh. But on the whole, I think the Isles would have to kill a lot of picks to get rid of that contract, and I don't know if that's worth it. And if the NHL goes on strike again, I'd think that's not worth it from the Isles perspective. I'd rather have Ladd on the roster than miss a year or half a year of hockey.

But I think you make a few good points about Leddy. If we can move him for a Top 6 forward, or even if we can get a team friendly contract Middle 6 forward, I'd be more than happy with that. Toews will grow into his spot, and I think it's about time we gave Aho a serious look too. He's been great in the AHL for a couple seasons now.
 
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