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Joined: Mar. 2017
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I continuously see increased emphasis on 1st round picks, specifically those in the top 10.
It is to the point where the suggestion is often that a top 10 pick, on it's own, is sufficient to acquire a top 6 NHL player.
In an attempt to understand that perception, I decided to look back at the forward drafted from 2010-2016, to see exactly what one can reasonably expect a top 10 pick to produce in terms of an NHL forward.
This is not an in depth analysis. That would require a much larger investment of time. I broke this down in a way which would give a quick glance based on the following notes:
1. I chose the 2010's for a more recent sample. I stopped at 2016, since many more recently drafted players will as yet have categorized themselves.
2. I only looked at forwards. Defensemen require a much deeper analysis in more categories.
3. I think it is fair to say that the goal, or most basic requirement in successfully drafting a forward in the top 10 is to acquire a player who will at least produce at the level of a top 6 forward. Therefore I only looked at points.
4. I graded players based on career-to-date points/game average and where that would place them in this season's ranking among players with at least 30 games played.
A - 1st Line: Top 25% among forwards (0.68 P/G or more)
B - 2nd Line: Top 50% among forwards (0.45 P/G or more)
C - 3rd Line: Bottom 50% among forwards (0.33 P/G or more)
D - 4th Line: Bottom 25% among forwards (Less than 0.33 P/G)
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A total of 46 forwards were drafted in the top 10 over a course of 7 years from 2010-2016.
Of those players:
21 were grade A (Top Line) or 45.65%
12 were grade B (2nd Line) or 26.09%
9 were grade C (3rd Line) or 19.57%
4 were grade D (4th Line or worse) or 8.70%
We can consider drafting a C or D player in the top 10 as a failure. Nobody would ever trade a top 10 pick for a 3rd or 4th line player.
There's an 8.70% chance of a bust, and a 28.26% chance of at least disappointment.
Trading any A or B player, for a pick that has greater than a 50% chance of being equal or worse than what you are giving up, is poor asset management.
So what about top 3?
18 players: 12 A 4 B 2 C
That's about a 70% chance of an A and only a 10% chance of a bust.
In the case of a top 3 pick, the risk may be worth it. If you are giving up a high level B player or low level A player, you are likely to end up with at least a similar player and the 10% risk of something worse is negligible.
So eliminating the top 3 picks, the rest breaks down as:
28 players: 9 A 8 B 7 C 4 D
Which is a 32% chance of an A and a 39% chance of a bust.
This is what lead me down this path to begin with.
Trading an A or B player one-for-one in hopes that a pick outside the top 3 will be an upgrade isn't wise. At best, it's a coin toss between worse or better. There's a roughly equal chance that it changes nothing. You give up a sure thing and end up with the same player, but you have to wait a few years for him.
In short, outside of the top 3, It makes more sense for the team trading the pick to include additional pieces to acquire a player in the mid-high B range or better, than it does for the team trading the player to do a straight swap or include extra pieces. If you're weighting it in the other direction, you are either making a bad deal or assuming the other GM will.