Going to give thoughts on the key areas / players for this offseason, sometimes it's best to write things down
MARNER CONTRACT:
Alright so I know I'm going to get a lot of flack for my number on the contract here, I've previously done an AGM where I broke down Marner's contract by the numbers. Using pts/game and percentage of cap. I'll put the link for that below. The number I came out was 10.051 AVV x 6 years. Now a lot of people seem to think he should be making the same as Matthews, and the calculations kind of debunks that because it mostly just looks at points and ignores position, nor does it give more importance for goals over assists, which Matthews obviously scores more of. So now I don't feel like coming out with some equation to calculate contracts based on goals or position, might explore that some other time, but it's definitely fair to say that centres are more important than wingers, and goals are more important than assists(especially considering secondary assists). So I'm going to shave 700k off the AVV, which will still leave Marner in the top 5 highest paid wingers in the league.
Most of you are going to come back and say Marner won't take 9.3 Mil, and you may be right. His agent has definitely lead us to believe this could be true, but I say we have to play hard ball. It's a shame he's the last contract of the big 3, because he definitely is the most beloved and I don't think we necessarily played it too hard on the Matthews or Nylander negotiations, but our future success really depends on Marner being signed at under 10 mil. I say we tell him, we will take our 4 1st round picks if you want your 10.15mil +... He really wants to play in Toronto, I'm sure he'll make some sacrifices to play here if we push him to
I think you could sell Marner on taking under 10 mil by making him understand the value of being the poster boy of the franchise, the hometown boy who took a hometown discount. We already know he's done ads with Apple, Intact Insurance, Bauer, Beats and Visa (I'm for sure missing a few). If he took a hometown discount he'd be even more marketable. John Tavares, another hometown kid, actually made 17.3M (23.31 M CAN) this year if you include his endorsement deals...
Link for contract calculations - https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1024463
NYLANDER:
"I don’t think we should worry about Nylander’s shooting percentage blip (5.4 percent) anymore than we worried about Nazem Kadri’s in 2015-16 (he followed up that season with back-to-back 30-goal seasons).
When we account for usage, Nylander actually had the best impact on 5-on-5 shots and expected goals among Leafs forwards. That’s largely because of his ability to move the puck up the ice with possession — an area where Matthews isn’t as strong. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Matthews began playing his best hockey when Nylander rejoined him at 5-on-5 (that line dominated play, controlling over 60 percent of the expected goals in the last month of the season)." - from Ian Tulloch's end of the season grades on the Athletic
The best defence is a good offence and Nylander tends to play in the offensive zone. Thats all I have to say to those who hate Nylander and say that he's soft, we are not trading Nylander. He's going to silence all the critics next year when he plays the whole season on Tavares or Matthews, mark my word
KADRI:
After game 7 I wanted to trade him, but that was just my emotions taking over. I think out of all players he should shoulder the series loss the most, completely selfish play. But after much thought, and a few sleeps , I think we should keep him. We've already came along way in his development as a player and I'm sure we can go even further so that he can control his emotions. He's a a great 2 way centre that can put up 30 goals if given the right wingers, 4.5 mil is a steal for him. Also if we tried to trade him we would be selling low on him considering the suspension and his low production this season. I'm expecting a big bounce back season out of him next year
KAPPY / JOHNSSON:
I'd love to resign both of them, but the more of these AGMs I do, the more I realize it might not be possible if we want to upgrade our D. Personally I'd rather trade Kapanen if we have to trade one of them, for 3 reasons. One, I think we would get more back for him in a trade. He's a first rounder which, unrightfully so, usually garners more interest. Also his speed will draw a lot of interest from teams looking to get younger and faster. Two, I think Johnsson is a more complete player. Kapanen is fast and can shoot, his passing leaves a lot to be desired. He also tends to enter the zone and take low percent shots instead of circling back to find a pass or getting down low and cycling the puck. Three, we are stronger on the right wing and have Bracco knocking at the door.
As far as their contracts, Connor Brown is a good comparable. Brown had 20 goals, 36 points in his contract year giving him a 2.1 MIL AVV x 3 years. At 20 goals and 44/43 points, with the cap going up I'm sure they'll fall between 2.5 - 3.25 MIL depending on if they want a 2 or a 3 year deals. I'd prefer 2 year deals for them at around 2.75. Obviously we have to bridge them, and if I was them I'd bet on myself with a bridge deal anyways
MARLEAU:
We have to swallow the hard truth. Marleau will be a leaf next year, and even if he retires, his AVV counts towards the cap. He also can't be sent through waivers because of the NMC. The only solution would be to do the Orpiks thing, but that's a stretch, don't think the NHL was too impressed with the Caps when they did it. It would also involve giving away a good asset to sweeten the deal..... would be really impressed with Dubas if he made it happen without giving away too much. Expectations are very low though
ZAITSEV:
We have to trade him, and I think his value is higher than we expect. There are still a lot of GMs in the league that value a tenacious smooth skating defensive defenceman. Say what you will about his puck management, but he is actually really good without the puck. He's really tough to play against and he proved it in the Boston series making Pastranak and Marchands life really difficult.
Yes we are already weak on the right side, but he just doesn't suit our style of play or the Dubas vision. Look at all the recent Dubas drafted D making a splash, Liljegren, Sandin, Hollowell, Durzi. They are all skilled puck moving defencemen. That's the direction the organization is going, skill all throughout the lineup, Zaitsev just doesn't fit the mold.
As far as trading him, don't forget how much we moaned and groaned about Polak. Now he's on the second pairing of a team that made the second round, there is still a market for players like Polak and Zaitsev. Not saying were going to get much back for him, mostly because of his contract, but we can maybe get a 5th rounder.
BABCOCK AND CO:
Jeff Veillette wrote a great piece that sums up my thoughts about Babcock, link below. Although I hate how stubborn he is, he's brought structure to the organization and I would still respect if we gave him one last year. Also, now that the media is finally critically questioning him, his hand might be forced to make adjustments, like trusting his younger players and playing Marleau less.
Connor Brown or Hyman's got to go. Brown seems like the obvious piece to be moved. Hyman's got a lot of heart, which we need, and Brown probably gets more interest on the trade market because of his 20 goal season and his numbers in junior
Hyman should be moved down the lineup, Boston and Colorado are proving that stacking a first line is sustainable. Would love to see us do the same, we also have more depth than both of those teams so it wouldn't hurt us as much. Stacking a Marner Matthews line would be really interesting, at least trying it out.
Actually not opposed to Hainsey coming back at 1 mil for 1 year on the third pair, don't know how feasible that is
Both Liljegren and Sandin are not ready for the NHL out of camp. Could see Sandin getting a trial run later in the season though, kind of what we did with Dermott last year
Not going to do a big Kapanen trade here because that's all people would focus on
TIm Heed, Jan Rutta would be RHD I'd want to go after in free agency.
Remember, Hyman starts the season on LTIR, so you can get an extra 1 mil or so of wiggle room with the cap to start the year.
Just keep in mind that if you are going to start with less cap room than 2.25 mil, that you need to leave enough to bank up the difference so that he can be activated in early December
Remember, Hyman starts the season on LTIR, so you can get an extra 1 mil or so of wiggle room with the cap to start the year.
Just keep in mind that if you are going to start with less cap room than 2.25 mil, that you need to leave enough to bank up the difference so that he can be activated in early December
Hyman starts the year on the roster. He may be on IR but is presumed now to be good to go for October. I would not be surprised if he starts the season. Might miss a few games but probably close to full contact practices by the time of season opening.
Hyman starts the year on the roster. He may be on IR but is presumed now to be good to go for October. I would not be surprised if he starts the season. Might miss a few games but probably close to full contact practices by the time of season opening.
ACL injuries require huge amounts of time. 6 months is really an optimistic minimum estimate, which takes you to October.
I expect to add another month or two to that time, as that is not unusual.
This is a great write up, good work. Agree on all points but moving Hyman down. I like what he is able to do on that line. When we are down a goal or two I dom’t Mind loading 2 lines up for the third.
ACL injuries require huge amounts of time. 6 months is really an optimistic minimum estimate, which takes you to October.
I expect to add another month or two to that time, as that is not unusual.
Toronto has a top knotch sports science department and this is Hyman we are talking about. I’m 50/50 that he starts the season but I’m 99% sure he won’t be added to ltir after camp. It would require him to be out atleast 24 more days.
I never understand this logic. Expect a team to take Zaitsev and his 4.5m and somehow the Leafs are able to sign Hainsey for 1m and Heed for under a 1m. If Heed is a competent NHLer he gets way more than 1m. Wouldn't Dallas be much better off signing Heed and Hainsey for 4m total instead of taking Zaitsev if all three players are NHL competent, never mind Hainsey and Heed getting paid properly. So though Zaitsev is close go 4.5m player his salary and term doesn't make him a practical trade without taking money back in trade.
I can see Brown being traded but the Leaf don't save that much in cap space by trading him, because you still have pay his replacement.
I'll just never understand why so many are afraid of trading Nylander and his 7m cap hit, instead of skirting around the edges with Zaitsev, Brown trades.
Sorry about the rant...but I just think these Zaitsev trades are so impractical.
I never understand this logic. Expect a team to take Zaitsev and his 4.5m and somehow the Leafs are able to sign Hainsey for 1m and Heed for under a 1m. If Heed is a competent NHLer he gets way more than 1m. Wouldn't Dallas be much better off signing Heed and Hainsey for 4m total instead of taking Zaitsev if all three players are NHL competent, never mind Hainsey and Heed getting paid properly. So though Zaitsev is close go 4.5m player his salary and term doesn't make him a practical trade without taking money back in trade.
I can see Brown being traded but the Leaf don't save that much in cap space by trading him, because you still have pay his replacement.
I'll just never understand why so many are afraid of trading Nylander and his 7m cap hit, instead of skirting around the edges with Zaitsev, Brown trades.
Sorry about the rant...but I just think these Zaitsev trades are so impractical.
Zaitsev is better than both heed and hainsey... combined lol.
Let’s turn the tables around for fun. You are always trying to trade nylander and keep zaitsev. If zaitsev is so valuable that the leafs would have a hard time replacing him then why is he untradable?
Personally I agree with you. Zaitsev is hard to replace and I think he played great this year. I think holding on to him and moving him when prospects are ready and his value is higher would be better asset management.
On the flip side of that moving nylander and then he blossoms into the 80-90 point player he is projected to be might not be great asset management either.
With Marleau stating that he wants to come back I am confuzzled as to why we picked up muzzin. I have to think that it is zaitsev or Kadri out the door. Most likely zaitsev. Nylander was signed by dubas zaitsev and Kadri were not. He has a plan and there is little reason to think it was built around those two.
I never understand this logic. Expect a team to take Zaitsev and his 4.5m and somehow the Leafs are able to sign Hainsey for 1m and Heed for under a 1m. If Heed is a competent NHLer he gets way more than 1m. Wouldn't Dallas be much better off signing Heed and Hainsey for 4m total instead of taking Zaitsev if all three players are NHL competent, never mind Hainsey and Heed getting paid properly. So though Zaitsev is close go 4.5m player his salary and term doesn't make him a practical trade without taking money back in trade.
I can see Brown being traded but the Leaf don't save that much in cap space by trading him, because you still have pay his replacement.
I'll just never understand why so many are afraid of trading Nylander and his 7m cap hit, instead of skirting around the edges with Zaitsev, Brown trades.
Sorry about the rant...but I just think these Zaitsev trades are so impractical.
You definitely have some good points here. Hainsey would probably not sign for 1 mil x 1 year, my point is that its the only contract I would sign him too, otherwise we find somebody else in free agency that cost between 1.5-2.5 mil. As for Heed, 1m-1.5m is probably realistic for a guy that gets scratched a lot. But San Jose definitely undervalues him and has major cap issues in the offseason too, so I don't think they'll be able to resign him.
The focus of the post really wasn't about the trades, more of what the end result of all the offseason might look like. I realistically have no idea what Zaitsev's trade value is on the trade market, but I do think it's higher than a lot of people on this site think.... But I do want to get rid of him
As for Nylander, I'll die on the hill defending him, I'd rather trade Kadri than him. I'm just positive we haven't seen it all from him yet.
Also worth mentioning, a GMs reputation is pretty important, especially his reputation amongst the players. Wouldn't be a good look for Dubas to trade Nylander after saying publicly he wouldn't, and after just signing a 6 year contract with him 6 months ago
You definitely have some good points here. Hainsey would probably not sign for 1 mil x 1 year, my point is that its the only contract I would sign him too, otherwise we find somebody else in free agency that cost between 1.5-2.5 mil. As for Heed, 1m-1.5m is probably realistic for a guy that gets scratched a lot. But San Jose definitely undervalues him and has major cap issues in the offseason too, so I don't think they'll be able to resign him.
The focus of the post really wasn't about the trades, more of what the end result of all the offseason might look like. I realistically have no idea what Zaitsev's trade value is on the trade market, but I do think it's higher than a lot of people on this site think.... But I do want to get rid of him
As for Nylander, I'll die on the hill defending him, I'd rather trade Kadri than him. I'm just positive we haven't seen it all from him yet.
But that's my point regarding Heed. If has a UFA he's only a 2m the Leafs have seriously hurt their defence by trading Zaitsev. But though I would like to keep Nylander, it's really a cap issue. I just don't see how the Leafs can keep some many high price forwards and really go so cheap on defence and be as good as this year....which wasn't enough.
But that's my point regarding Heed. If has a UFA he's only a 2m the Leafs have seriously hurt their defence by trading Zaitsev. But though I would like to keep Nylander, it's really a cap issue. I just don't see how the Leafs can keep some many high price forwards and really go so cheap on defence and be as good as this year....which wasn't enough.
I didn't do it above, but I would trade Kapanen for an upgrade on d. Package him with a prospect to get some help. Maybe even Kapanen, Prospect or Brown, and Kadri if it was for a top 4 d and a 3rd line center in return
Just didn't do it in the post because people just seem to focus on the trades of AGMs, ignoring the rest
Also worth mentioning, a GMs reputation is pretty important, especially his reputation amongst the players. Wouldn't be a good look for Dubas to trade Nylander after saying publicly he wouldn't, and after just signing a 6 year contract with him 6 months ago
Oh no, another guy who believes what a player, coach or executive says in a press conference. Don't GMs say...."The coach won't be fired." "We intend to resign this player".
Believe the quote was " I don't INTEND to trade Nylander as long as I am GM." I'm sure at the time, Dubas did not intend to trade Nylander. But the emergence of Marner, Johnsson, Kapanen for larger contracts that was expected, the trade for Muzzin has changed the cap situation and the structure of the team.
Now if Dubas had said to Nylander that he wouldn't trade him privately then you have a point about Dubas's reputation/credibility . But we will never know what if anything was said privately.
Zaitsev is better than both heed and hainsey... combined lol.
Let’s turn the tables around for fun. You are always trying to trade nylander and keep zaitsev. If zaitsev is so valuable that the leafs would have a hard time replacing him then why is he untradable?
Personally I agree with you. Zaitsev is hard to replace and I think he played great this year. I think holding on to him and moving him when prospects are ready and his value is higher would be better asset management.
On the flip side of that moving nylander and then he blossoms into the 80-90 point player he is projected to be might not be great asset management either.
With Marleau stating that he wants to come back I am confuzzled as to why we picked up muzzin. I have to think that it is zaitsev or Kadri out the door. Most likely zaitsev. Nylander was signed by dubas zaitsev and Kadri were not. He has a plan and there is little reason to think it was built around those two.
You and agree that Zaitsev as value as player. And trading likely weakens the Leaf defence since they a viable replacement.
Actually I won't mind trading Zaitsev, but 99% of all Zaitsev trades posts have been so impractical. Teams probably don't want to take his full cap and term. There are no replacements for Zaitsev which is terrible situation when Gardiner, and Hainsey are already gone due to cap reasons.
Like you I'm OK trading Kadri.
Can anyone really believe Nylander is going to be 80 point player? Maybe his 60 points is his max, admitting we won't have conclusive evidence for another ten years or so.
We've agreed before on the Muzzin trade. It's confusing give the cap situation.
Possibly....possibly Marleau gave that answer so he won't be bothered with all the speculation on his retirement. Imagine his spring/summer hassle if he given a "hazy" answer. Maybe his thinking is, the Leafs aren't going to win the Cup next season why go through the training, travel just to be disappointed for 1.5m.
I didn't do it above, but I would trade Kapanen for an upgrade on d. Package him with a prospect to get some help. Maybe even Kapanen, Prospect or Brown, and Kadri if it was for a top 4 d and a 3rd line center in return
Just didn't do it in the post because people just seem to focus on the trades of AGMs, ignoring the rest
Well I didn't ignore the rest of the post. But you admitted the Leafs are weak at RHD, but you said Zaitsev HAS to be traded. You mention players that were drafted but aren't NHL ready, so I don't see how the Leafs can be better next year without Zaitsev.
Brown and especially Hyman, sure they could be traded but the cap saving isn't that much. And especially Hyman, who is able to take his place effectively, though we might have find out for first three months next season.
Agree with you maybe trading Kapanen and more for a upgrade on defence would be good idea, it's finding the cap to do.
Well I didn't ignore the rest of the post. But you admitted the Leafs are weak at RHD, but you said Zaitsev HAS to be traded. You mention players that were drafted but aren't NHL ready, so I don't see how the Leafs can be better next year without Zaitsev.
Brown and especially Hyman, sure they could be traded but the cap saving isn't that much. And especially Hyman, who is able to take his place effectively, though we might have find out for first three months next season.
Agree with you maybe trading Kapanen and more for a upgrade on defence would be good idea, it's finding the cap to do.
To be honest I don’t think the leafs will be better next year. I think a bit more experience helps but on paper we may have to take a step back. The only way I agree with a zaitsev trade is from the prospective of keeping young talent. I don’t see zaitsev as part of the long term plan. For that reason it might be the smarter asset management to move zaitsev.
To be honest I don’t think the leafs will be better next year. I think a bit more experience helps but on paper we may have to take a step back. The only way I agree with a zaitsev trade is from the prospective of keeping young talent. I don’t see zaitsev as part of the long term plan. For that reason it might be the smarter asset management to move zaitsev.
I agree with you about the step backward. I would like to see a smart trade for Zaitsev though. He certainly looks like a compliance buyout in few years. How's this thought. Leafs look worse this off season, Marleau gets discouraged. Knows he'll never get his Cup with the Leafs, he retires, saving the traded Marleau 6.25m in cap space.
I agree with you about the step backward. I would like to see a smart trade for Zaitsev though. He certainly looks like a compliance buyout in few years. How's this thought. Leafs look worse this off season, Marleau gets discouraged. Knows he'll never get his Cup with the Leafs, he retires, saving the traded Marleau 6.25m in cap space.
I don’t think zaitsev is as bad as you make him out to be. I was happy with his play this season and didn’t expect him to be so solid defensively. He was by far our best defender in the playoffs.
I think we have both heard enough of the fabled white rhino positional advantage of the RHD... does this not apply to zaitsev? Not expecting anything of significance back for him but is that not an incentive for a team to bolster the right side? I think we both know how slim the pickens are this year for ufa rhd.