"TML would probably lose Kapanen by OS"
That is your first mistake.

Kapanen needs to actually SIGN the OS
A team needs to offer him one
The Leafs need to not match it

Also the trade is horrible for the Leafs, and Marleau isnt going anywhere. The league would have HUGE sanctions on the teams for doing this.

Kap signing at 3 million? at that the Leafs can make it happen. Gonna be closer to 4 i think. Other then that cant see them doing that with Montreal, a lot of rebuilding teams will take the Marleau buyout for a mid pick and a mid prospect

Even if Leafs are the max cap in the summer, they can still sign Kapanen. What is this fantasy about the Leafs (and only the Leafs) that they can't sign their RFAs.

An offer sheet of $4M to Kapanen would only give TML a second round pick which would be horrible. Anyway something horrible will append in the offseason for TML. Cap space issues will haunt TML for years. You don't build a team over overwhelming egos. Look forward to see TML GM manage cap issues. This offer was a gateway. You should start to consider Tavares a Cap dump in 4 years. He is getting slower already.

Montreal does not need or have room for Kapanen, so a poor fit regardless.

As for buying out Marleau, the league allowed it already with Orpik, which was a load of bull. I don't see how they can justify denying another team to do the same thing.
It can't appear pre-meditated however, so Reilly and a 5th probably won't pass in an investigation.

Matt Peca isn't related to Mike Peca (did you know that?) so Buf would have no interest in him.

You maybe right. Send him anywhere I don't care.

Orpik had to clear waivers to be bought out, any team could have intervened to stop that trade/buyout/resign deal. And this is why the Leafs can't do a trade/buyout deal, because Marleau's actually pay check is dirt cheap for next year, but he has the high cap hit, so there would be many small market bottom feeder teams wanting that contract.

Kapanen a poor fit with Montreal? A young finnish winger with good potential. Would be very exciting to have him play with Kotka. For a 2nd round pick (4M offer sheet), very good addition imo! Montreal could easily make place for him too, by trading Armia for example.

It is clear in my view that he will clear waiver at his salary to be buy out after. But there can be a little spoiler in the process I understand.

I think the next step is to trade Andrew Shaw and keep Arnia.

He could waive his NMC to be traded, and then invoke his NMC to bypass waivers and proceed to the buyout.
The problem comes in convincing him to do all of that without it being discovered and the league ruling it as circumvention.

Yeah, the league basically said it was caught off guard by the Orpik move, and would use its powers if someone tried to do it again. It wont be allowed, which is hypocritical maybe, but not much you can do.

The league wants Marleau to keep playing. So they will accept for NHL money issues. I can tell you that. So are the fans. In the NHL, money talks.

Montreal has too many wingers. Best bet is to consolidate one or more of them into a better player. Kapanen isn't significantly better to the point where it's worth jumping through hoops to add him. IMO.

He has NMC clause that he hs to release.

You might have misquoted? I think you meant the Marleau comment.

A player with an NMC cannot be moved without their consent. Marleau can consent to a trade and then not consent to buyout waivers.
Should he not consent to buyout waivers, he will then be bought out without being offered to other teams via the waiver wire.

Where would you suggest to trade him ?

You are right , I thought you were commenting Marleau.

Kap is young, skilled, fast and Finnish. The Habs would love to have him on the roster. With that being said this deal doesn't get it done. Marleau controls his own fate and isn't doing this sketchy sh!+ for the Leafs, they knew what they were getting into when they signed him.
My take on a Kap deal would be:
Kap and Zaitsev
For
Juulsen and a pick

Leafs dump cap and add a young cheap option at right side D and the Habs get Kap and a horribly overpaid yet completely capable bottom pairing defenceman.