This number is hilarious. He is a top 10 play making winger in the NHL. Why pay him like the #1?

Very fair and realistic

So why did Pastrnak sign for 6.67 after successful seasons? Even inflated out its around 7

Leagues changed. And I think everyone can agree that deal is awful for pasta

Why did Gaudreau sign for 6.75?
Draisaitl sign for 8.5 when he is a centre and actually better
Stone for 9.5 and all UFA years (also better than Marner right now)
Wheeler 8.25 also better
-
Wingers don't make the money Centres do
Playmakers don't make the money goal scorers do
Every advanced stats known to man shows Marner is not as good as everyone wants to think he is

The media really got to leaf fans it's sad. Beat ideas into people's heads so much they believe it and ignore the facts.

If that 's the number that Marner needs to sign, then I hope the Chris Johnston tidbiits are true and the Leafs trade him. Someone else can pay Mitch that money..

They won't pay him that. Literally every statistic says he should be paid close to 9. If he's traded it better than overpaying him. **** him

Yep. I'm of the same mind. We could get quite a haul for him.

I posted this else where but here it is again :

72 million over 8 years

7.2 million per for the first 5 years and last 3 years 12 million per.
Make the deal lockout proof

Aav = 9 million


This similar to benn contract.

Makes sense. But these are facts so you will not get anywhere with these people

I'd take each of those guys (and their contracts) in a trade for Mitch. But I doubt their GMs would ever consider it.. maybe Calgary does..

Dirty Dangles put an AGM up yesterday with a Marner for Gaudreau and a 2nd trade. If there was a way for the leafs to trade Marner (and whatever adds on might be needed) for Johnny Hockey and Rasmus Andersson I'd be all for it..

Basically the same team with too much for Marner and no right winger on third line?

My take is this. Mariner's camp will ask for 7 figures and then he'll sign for around 10 million depending on term. If he wants over 10 it's going to be close to a max term deal. 10.5 for 8 or 10 for 7. Otherwise it'll be a shorter term for under 10.

People that say wingers don't make as much are not wrong and that will factor in. But those you say Marner won't get paid more than wingers getting paid at the age of 26-28 are wrong as well because those guys are getting paid for what they have done not what they will do. Marner will be more productive over his next contract than all those comparables or most of them anyways and still hasn't even seen his prime yet. That is why he'll get more. Same with Rantanen.

I hope you're right on that number, Logan. and that they meet in the middle and get it done. I'd hate to lose him.

But just as a thought exercise, wouldn't it be interesting if Marner and camp decide they won't move from AM money... so Dubas does pull off a trade and ships his rights to Calgary for Johnny Hockey plus (maybe Rasmus Andersson gets thrown in as part of a bigger deal)..

So, Marner now belongs to Calgary and Ferris needs to negotiate with them on Marners contract.. how does he justify his 11M ask now? I'd say he can't and he'll soon find himself in and around 9M. Meanwhile, if this fantasy trade went down and the leafs pickup Gaudreau and Rasmus they wouldn't miss a beat, and could take a step forward.

I'd say the Marner camp better be careful for what they wish for.... they don't hold all the cards.

There are Leaf haters who think the Leafs HAVE to overpaid for their own RFAs. Now the Leaf management might overpay for Marner, bu tthey don't HAVE to.

I think this whole "animosity is abound" thread is complete nonsense. I think Marner will be signed and I think it'll be in the 10-10.5 range and for 7-8 years.

Then people can start worrying about other stuff like how many millions Kapanen is going to sign for. At which time I'll be saying, why don't we trade him for Greenway and fix a need on the team and maximize the value Kapanen has generated so far.

Stars getting star money is never a problem. It's secondary players making too much that sinks your cap. I think it's slowly sinking in with GM's. How can you afford to give a real play driver what he wants when you are giving secondary guys 5 million a season.

What team is better, a team that keeps JVR at 7 million a season only to lose Marner who wants 10? Or a team that keeps Marner and finds younger cheaper talent they aren't a huge drop off from a secondary guy? Perhaps JVR isn't the best example but for what he brings to the table, I'd never give him more than 5 million and definitely not into his 30's. It's a situation that time and time again has proven to be a cap killer and yet teams do it every year.

Backes, Laad, Neal, etc

I see certain guys getting pinched hard in the near future. Guys like Kapanen will have to take a big pay cut if they want to stay in TO because the top guys will get the big bucks. It's also why drafting and DEVELOPING draft picks is paramount in this era. If you can't find serviceable depth guys for cheap, you better develop them. Edmonton is a perfect example of what goes wrong if you don't see how things are going.

Well, there's some I agree with here, and some that I don't.

What I agree with:
*Drafting and developing is vital, couldn't agree more.
*Certain guys will get pinched hard - yup. The middle class is disappearing with how contracts have been handed out lately. Although, I wouldn't necessarily say that's a good thing
*Too many secondary players making too much money is problematic - sure. I mean it's hard to argue otherwise when there is a cap in place.
*You have every right to argue why Kappanen should be traded for Greening... just like I have every right for advocating trading Marner if he tries to command AM money. That's kinda the whole purpose of this site, and the whole point of this specific thread..

What I don't agree with
*Paying star players is never a problem. Nope. It sure can be a problem when a team has too many stars commanding too much money. If marner comes in at AM money, that's 4 guys that are eating up almost 40M. That becomes a problem.. and someone has to go
*A team is better paying their stars top dollar and filling out the roster with elcs.. Hard to say, the jury is still out. I read an article today where something crazy, like only 2 of the top scorers outta the top 15 during the regular season are still in the playoffs.. how does that work? Skilled individual guys don't guarantee a thing in a team dynamic...

Anyways, throughout your post you never threw in your 2 cents on my thought exercise.. if Marner has his rights traded away to a team like Calgary, how does he justify his AM money demands? I don't think he can at all, but I would love to hear your thoughts on that..

Marner's next contract is projected to be:
- $10M for an 8 year deal
- $9M for a 5, 6, or 7 year deal
- $8.5M for a 4 year deal
- $8M for a 3 year deal
- $6.75M for a 2 year deal
- $8.75M for a 1 year deal

Listed as a 40% chance for an 8 year deal and a 50% chance for a 5 or 6 year deal.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15E1qqh3OfHvvhbv_pICfKT7VR1jJEVhWQOyKviWLN54/htmlview

that's a handy piece of business that you shared. thanks for that!

Thank you for the info. Those numbers seemly accurate

Logan mentioned that stars should be getting big money and I agree. Unfortunately the Leafs have backed themselves in a corner with 6.25m Marleau deal, for third line winger, 1.2m retention on Kessel and 6.976 for Nylander...which is too much for his current production.

All fair statements.

As for trading to Calgary, I just don't like the drop off in the player. Regular season they are close to equal but Gaudreau has been a playoff non performer and does anyone actually think he'd be the player to get then over Boston? Marner has almost a point a game in the past two playoffs, so he clearly isn't a problem, but you can't say that about Gaudreau. So in my mind, I'd negotiate and get a deal done. If you want upwards of 11 million I want 8 years. They'd counter with a shorter term possibly, but don't have a huge argument, centres get more and there is a lot of recent activity that would suggest you get less than 10 (Recent signings like Stone) so then I think it'll settle around 10.5 for 7 years. I am totally fine with that, it doesn't cripple the team since they will gain 6.5 next season. It just means we have to patch work some areas and hope some kids impress. Sometimes that works out pretty good. I remember a time when Kaberle and Markov impressed in their first full years. It's not impossible that Rosen figures things out or even Borgman.

I am more willing to give Marner a bigger contract and try some young guys on the back end a chance than move him for a weaker player who is also 3 years older and has a history of collapsing in a hard playoff round (Boston is a lot tougher than Colorado).

That;s all pretty reasonable, Logan.

The point that I'm trying to make is that Marner's camp making AM his direct comparable really only works to his advantage if he's negotiating with the Leafs. If his camp plays hardball with that tactic and refuses to budge, and the leafs are insistent on using league wide comparables, then Marner's camp could find their leverage evaporating pretty quickly...

Marner has the right to ask for whatever he wants. The leafs also have the right to refuse that. If CJ is correct, then Marner's rights might end up being traded. And if that happens, then I think Marner, his dad, and Ferris would soon find out that their tactic of directly comparing Marner to AM doesn't mean much.. and they'd be forced to negotiate a deal based on fair comparables from across the league. At that point, I think he'd be in a dog fight to get a penny more than Kucherov...

The basis of my argument really has nothing to do with trading him for Gaudreau. You could substitute Johnny Hockey for any rhd unicorn you'd like and the dynamic would remain the same... Marner's contract will be determined based on league comparables, not on his camps belief that he is = to, or > than AM

It will all be part of the negotiations, that and so much more that people on the outside will ever know or care to know. It's a whole bunch of issues that will be discussed but I think at the end of the day, CJ is just speculating, it's all the rage these days. What we do know is both sides want the same thing, they will sir down and I would be very surprised if it takes very long. If you both want to be part of a championship team you figure out what it's going to take to make it happen and be beneficial for all involved.