Forums/Armchair-GM

2nd Round Exits Arent Good Enough

Created by: Hawkisles
Initial Creation Date: May 3, 2019
Published: May 3, 2019 at 10:43 pm
Team: 2019-20 New York Islanders
Team Explanation
Look me in the eye and tell me this team could win a Cup.

If you can’t, we need to make big moves.

And congrats to the Canes. No question you deserve to advance.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Beauvillier, Anthony3$2,500,000
Dal Colle, Michael4$1,600,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Eberle, Jordan4$6,000,000
Lehner, Robin3$5,000,000
Lee, Anders6$7,000,000
Nelson, Brock3$5,000,000
Filppula, Valtteri2$2,500,000
Buyouts
  • Rick DiPietro: $0
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2019
NYI
CGY
NYI
NYI
NYI
2020
NYI
NYI
NYI
NYI
NYI
NYI
NYI
2021
NYI
NYI
NYI
NYI
NYI
NYI
NYI
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
22$83,000,000$71,896,666$0$400,000$11,103,334
Left WingCenterRight Wing
NYI
Lee, Anders
$7,000,000
LW, C
NTC
UFA - 7
NYI
Barzal, Mathew
$863,333
C
RFA - 1
NYI
Eberle, Jordan
$6,000,000
RW
NTC
UFA - 5
NYI
Beauvillier, Anthony
$2,500,000
LW
RFA - 2
NYI
Nelson, Brock
$5,000,000
C, LW
NTC
UFA - 6
NYI
Bailey, Josh
$5,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 5
NYI
Dal Colle, Michael
$1,600,000
LW
RFA - 2
NYI
Filppula, Valtteri
$2,500,000
C, LW
NTC
UFA - 2
NYI
Komarov, Leo
$3,000,000
RW, LW, C
NTC
UFA - 3
NYI
Martin, Matt
$2,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
NYI
Cizikas, Casey
$3,350,000
C
UFA - 2
NYI
Clutterbuck, Cal
$3,500,000
RW
UFA - 3
NYI
Johnston, Ross
$1,000,000
LW
UFA - 3
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
NYI
Pelech, Adam
$1,600,000
LD
RFA - 2
NYI
Pulock, Ryan
$2,000,000
RD
RFA - 1
NYI
Lehner, Robin
$5,000,000
G
UFA - 1
NYI
Toews, Devon
$700,000
LD
RFA - 1
NYI
Mayfield, Scott
$1,450,000
RD
UFA - 4
NYI
Greiss, Thomas
$3,333,333
G
UFA - 1
NYI
Leddy, Nick
$5,500,000
LD
UFA - 3
NYI
Boychuk, Johnny
$6,000,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 3
NYI
Hickey, Thomas
$2,500,000
LD
UFA - 3
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
NYI
Ladd, Andrew
$5,500,000
LW
NTC
UFA - 4

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May 3, 2019 at 10:44
#1
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 3,637
Likes: 1,013
Isles need a good top 6 LW & a top 2 RHD
Hawkisles and tankguy67 liked this.
May 3, 2019 at 10:45
#2
CGY
Joined: Dec 2015
Posts: 2,695
Likes: 530
I think Lou will try to do something big via trade, UFA or offer-sheet. If he doesn’t this team just screams regression to me next season. League best GAA and goaltending isn’t something you can count on every season
May 3, 2019 at 10:46
#3
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 1,192
Likes: 380
You make big moves by re-signing the same players that were swept in the 2nd rd???
tankguy67 liked this.
May 3, 2019 at 10:50
#4
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,461
Likes: 1,903
Quoting: ItWasIn
I think Lou will try to do something big via trade, UFA or offer-sheet. If he doesn’t this team just screams regression to me next season. League best GAA and goaltending isn’t something you can count on every season


Quoting: Poehling
Isles need a good top 6 LW & a top 2 RHD


I'm a Leafs fan. Believe me I've seen how this movie ends.

They're going to sign Simmonds to the next Clarkson contract. Book it.
Its the Leafs 2013 PDO run all over again. They will think they are farther along than they are, will make a big UFA splash, maybe a trade or two, and the party will roll to a stop and everyone will realize they traded Alexis Lafrieniere away in one of those trades made in the off season and they crippled their cap with some bad contracts all over (Komarov, Simmonds etc).

Prepare for the worst kind of pain imaginable (yes worse than JT leaving).
May 3, 2019 at 10:56
#5
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 3,637
Likes: 1,013
Quoting: Random2152
I'm a Leafs fan. Believe me I've seen how this movie ends.

They're going to sign Simmonds to the next Clarkson contract. Book it.
Its the Leafs 2013 PDO run all over again. They will think they are farther along than they are, will make a big UFA splash, maybe a trade or two, and the party will roll to a stop and everyone will realize they traded Alexis Lafrieniere away in one of those trades made in the off season and they crippled their cap with some bad contracts all over (Komarov, Simmonds etc).

Prepare for the worst kind of pain imaginable (yes worse than JT leaving).


No I think Lou knows the team wasnt supposed to be good & this is the reason why he didnt trade prospect at the TDL
ForsbergForVezina liked this.
May 3, 2019 at 10:58
#6
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 31
Likes: 5
I think this leaves room for Barzal, so good. Leddy getting moved for a pick or two will give more space, and they can then roll $8-10 million at Panarin.
May 3, 2019 at 10:58
#7
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,461
Likes: 1,903
Quoting: Poehling
No I think Lou knows the team wasnt supposed to be good & this is the reason why he didnt trade prospect at the TDL


Lou thought the zaitzev and Marleau contracts were good ideas.
Be very, very afraid
May 3, 2019 at 11:00
#8
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 3,637
Likes: 1,013
Quoting: Random2152
Lou thought the zaitzev and Marleau contracts were good ideas.
Be very, very afraid


IDC im a MTL fan & we have one of the best GM in the league
May 3, 2019 at 11:02
#9
Burgers and Hockey
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 8,608
Likes: 3,659
Quoting: Random2152
I'm a Leafs fan. Believe me I've seen how this movie ends.

They're going to sign Simmonds to the next Clarkson contract. Book it.
Its the Leafs 2013 PDO run all over again. They will think they are farther along than they are, will make a big UFA splash, maybe a trade or two, and the party will roll to a stop and everyone will realize they traded Alexis Lafrieniere away in one of those trades made in the off season and they crippled their cap with some bad contracts all over (Komarov, Simmonds etc).

Prepare for the worst kind of pain imaginable (yes worse than JT leaving).


That was just...brutal.
Random2152 liked this.
May 3, 2019 at 11:03
#10
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,461
Likes: 1,903
Quoting: Poehling
IDC im a MTL fan & we have one of the best GM in the league


Lol. Bergy lucked into winning the Domi trade and the jk pick.
There are plenty of better GM's in the league.
Remember how most of the Habs fanbase was calling for his head not even a year ago?

Bergy is prime example of a blind squirrel finding a nut. Doesn't mean he can see
BurgerBoss and ItWasIn liked this.
May 3, 2019 at 11:06
#11
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,461
Likes: 1,903
Quoting: BurgerBoss
That was just...brutal.


But completely accurate.
I feel bad for barzal honestly. He deserved to not have his youth wasted, and that is a best case scenario
May 3, 2019 at 11:10
#12
Burgers and Hockey
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 8,608
Likes: 3,659
Quoting: Random2152
But completely accurate.
I feel bad for barzal honestly. He deserved to not have his youth wasted, and that is a best case scenario


Well he was pretty much destined to that, assuming you're correct.

With that I mean ofc that he was about to be drafted to EDM but they moved the said pick.
Random2152 liked this.
May 3, 2019 at 11:13
#13
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 3,637
Likes: 1,013
Quoting: Random2152
Lol. Bergy lucked into winning the Domi trade and the jk pick.
There are plenty of better GM's in the league.
Remember how most of the Habs fanbase was calling for his head not even a year ago?

Bergy is prime example of a blind squirrel finding a nut. Doesn't mean he can see


Mtl fans dont know **** about hockey, they dont even knows they players contract. Bergevin won every trade he as done, or the trade was useless Exemple : Shinkaruk vs Rychel. Petry Weber Danault Domi Tatar Kulak Armia Weal are all win trades. Some are = Drouin Shaw. He did a reset in 2 years, pick players like Kotkaniemi Romanov Poehling Brook Primeau. With the main core Drouin Domi 24 yo Lehkonen 23 yo Danault Gallagher 26 yo. MTL will be good in 3-4 years. Right now, we just enjoy the hockey they gave us.
May 3, 2019 at 11:24
#14
Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 1,378
Likes: 222
Quoting: Poehling
Isles need a good top 6 LW & a top 2 RHD


Pulock will grow into that, Bellows will not though. But I’m more interested in getting a C2.
Poehling liked this.
May 3, 2019 at 11:24
#15
Hawks and Isles Fan
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 1,645
Likes: 577
Quoting: Random2152
I'm a Leafs fan. Believe me I've seen how this movie ends.

They're going to sign Simmonds to the next Clarkson contract. Book it.
Its the Leafs 2013 PDO run all over again. They will think they are farther along than they are, will make a big UFA splash, maybe a trade or two, and the party will roll to a stop and everyone will realize they traded Alexis Lafrieniere away in one of those trades made in the off season and they crippled their cap with some bad contracts all over (Komarov, Simmonds etc).

Prepare for the worst kind of pain imaginable (yes worse than JT leaving).


(X) Doubt
May 3, 2019 at 11:25
#16
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,461
Likes: 1,903
Quoting: ForsbergForVezina
(X) Doubt


Exactly which part are you doubting?
Everything I said here is very likely.
May 3, 2019 at 11:27
#17
Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 1,378
Likes: 222
Quoting: Riley816
You make big moves by re-signing the same players that were swept in the 2nd rd???


Resigned then to make a point about how our roster isn’t going to cut it. I think we need to let Eberle, Val and Kuhnhackl walk. Give the kids a chance to make the roster, get UFA upgrades where we can.
May 3, 2019 at 11:35
#18
rangersandislesfan
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 26,983
Likes: 2,964
Some people may say that the Isles need to just keep the same team they had this year. I don't see any huge changes and I don't think they completely rebuild but I do think they'll make some changes, or at least they should IMO. They need some more scoring.
Hawkisles liked this.
May 3, 2019 at 11:38
#19
Hawks and Isles Fan
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 1,645
Likes: 577
Quoting: Random2152
Exactly which part are you doubting?
Everything I said here is very likely.


Maybe the part about PDO, but they've already proven they don't have illusions of grandeur or they would've gone crazy at the deadline; they have plenty of valuable assets, but held onto all of them. Simmonds might actually be an interesting fit on the Island, but there's no way he gets signed for more than he made this year. And the firsts probably aren't going anywhere, especially because the Ottawa (and what could've been St. Louis) situation is still fresh in our memories. They're going to do what they've done all year: Go about their business, play it safe and pounce on opportunities.

The only way I could see what you said transpiring is if Lee or Eberle gets signed for too much and regresses like Lucic did, but I honestly don't think Eberle comes back and I don't think Lee gets regresses, at least for a couple of years
May 3, 2019 at 11:51
#20
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,461
Likes: 1,903
Quoting: ForsbergForVezina
Maybe the part about PDO, but they've already proven they don't have illusions of grandeur or they would've gone crazy at the deadline; they have plenty of valuable assets, but held onto all of them. Simmonds might actually be an interesting fit on the Island, but there's no way he gets signed for more than he made this year. And the firsts probably aren't going anywhere, especially because the Ottawa (and what could've been St. Louis) situation is still fresh in our memories. They're going to do what they've done all year: Go about their business, play it safe and pounce on opportunities.

The only way I could see what you said transpiring is if Lee or Eberle gets signed for too much and regresses like Lucic did, but I honestly don't think Eberle comes back and I don't think Lee gets regresses, at least for a couple of years


Simmonds will be the next Clarkson deal, and some team will pay him too much.
The PDO thing is 100% real and will bite the team in the ass.
Lou thought the zaitzev and Marleau contracts were good ideas. I think they will do something this off season, and Simmonds seems likely.

As I've said, I've seen this movie.
It's weird. Uncanny how history seems to be repeating.
May 4, 2019 at 12:02
#21
Hawks and Isles Fan
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 1,645
Likes: 577
Quoting: Random2152
Simmonds will be the next Clarkson deal, and some team will pay him too much.
The PDO thing is 100% real and will bite the team in the ass.
Lou thought the zaitzev and Marleau contracts were good ideas. I think they will do something this off season, and Simmonds seems likely.

As I've said, I've seen this movie.
It's weird. Uncanny how history seems to be repeating.


I really can't see them signing Simmonds and if they do, they're not giving him more than $4 million for 3-ish years. Probably less. I can't really refute the Zaitsev and Marleau contracts, other than pointing out that 2017 Zaitsev was probably worth $4.5 million, but after seeing how disastrous they've been for the Leafs, I can't imagine he makes that mistake again.
May 4, 2019 at 12:10
#22
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,461
Likes: 1,903
Quoting: ForsbergForVezina
I really can't see them signing Simmonds and if they do, they're not giving him more than $4 million for 3-ish years. Probably less. I can't really refute the Zaitsev and Marleau contracts, other than pointing out that 2017 Zaitsev was probably worth $4.5 million, but after seeing how disastrous they've been for the Leafs, I can't imagine he makes that mistake again.


Same could be said for many GM's, who proceeded to make the same mistake.
Also, zaitzevs underlying numbers screamed DO NOT TOUCH, even in 2017.

In the islanders case, Simmonds screams DO NOT TOUCH and that you were carried by stupid high PDO and are due for massive regression.
May 4, 2019 at 8:45
#23
Komarov>Tavares
Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 2,924
Likes: 672
Quoting: Random2152
I'm a Leafs fan. Believe me I've seen how this movie ends.

They're going to sign Simmonds to the next Clarkson contract. Book it.
Its the Leafs 2013 PDO run all over again. They will think they are farther along than they are, will make a big UFA splash, maybe a trade or two, and the party will roll to a stop and everyone will realize they traded Alexis Lafrieniere away in one of those trades made in the off season and they crippled their cap with some bad contracts all over (Komarov, Simmonds etc).

Prepare for the worst kind of pain imaginable (yes worse than JT leaving).


The dude said the isles need a top six winger not Wayne Simmonds
May 4, 2019 at 8:45
#24
Komarov>Tavares
Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 2,924
Likes: 672
Quoting: Random2152
Same could be said for many GM's, who proceeded to make the same mistake.
Also, zaitzevs underlying numbers screamed DO NOT TOUCH, even in 2017.

In the islanders case, Simmonds screams DO NOT TOUCH and that you were carried by stupid high PDO and are due for massive regression.


The Leafs had a higher PDO than the Isles. At least NYI has a round to show for it
May 4, 2019 at 9:30
#25
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,461
Likes: 1,903
Quoting: linehan10
The Leafs had a higher PDO than the Isles. At least NYI has a round to show for it


There are different types of pdo. Good teams tend to be a bit higher than 100, and it is sustainable.

Teams like the islanders have unsustainable PDO and are due to regress, like the leafs run. In 2013
 
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