Why would Ottawa do that trade? I'd rather wait for the offer sheet, instead of make a trade you don't like. Rather hold the long term cap space instead of spending it Karlsson.

To add to this (which I also agree with)...

For what seems like the Millionth time I’ve had to point this out... Karlsson will be signed by another team long before a signed sheet comes in on marner.

The leafs will not spend his cap money before that sheet arrives.

Ottawa would do this because their owner is cheap and would not want to be paying someone to not play. Marleau would at least slot into the linup every night.

C'mon. That's ridiculous. Do you really think Marleau is going to waive his NMC to Ottawa? Isn't McArthur's contract insured, covered by insurance?

Why would the Isles make that trade? Just offersheet and give up the compensation.

Marner+Kadri+Zaitsev
4
Kessel+Matta+1st round 2019..-~

Muzzin back to L.A.
4 Phaneuf..-~

Lol

Kapanen 4 Clarkson..-~

I didn't say anything about his NMC that's a different story.

But it is the same reason Toronto had the Nathan Horton for Clarkson trade with Columbus, but Clarkson got injured shortly after and it didn't pan out the way Columbus would have liked.

Well, you didn't have to say anything about Marleau's NMC. It's a fact. It's not different story. And certainly if McArthur's salary is insured, it's not a cash payout by the owner.
Actually the Clarkson traded turned out perfectly for CBJ. They didn't have to pay out of pocket for the injured Horton, and insurance paid for Clarkson's contract. Clarkson's LTIR gave Columbus space though they certainly miscalculated the value of Karlson and allowed Vegas to claim him in the expansion draft.

Apparently Babcock isnt going anywhere. Or so Dubas has said...

Although, this is what i think could be going on behind the scenes..

- there is an actual divide between Dubas and Babcock insofar as roster construction, player usage, adaptability etc
- a bet a whole buck that there was a serious review of Babcock at seasons end, and that expectations have been discussed and that the leash has been shorted
- next season could be a step back and its the wrong time to fire Babs and bring in Keefe. If it goes to pots next year it'll be on Babcock and his head will be offered on a platter to the hockey gods and then Keefe comes in. But if Babcock is fired now, and it goes to pots next year (because its looking like it could be a step back kinda of a year regardless of who the coach is), then it'll be on Dubas and his head will be on the platter.. I don't see a young GM putting himself that position so early in his career. I think Dubas is being patient here (if only for self preservation), that Keefe is Dubas's man, and will be the coach of the leafs when the time is right..

yeah the trade itself is moot since zero change he would waive it to go to probably the worst destination in the league right now.

not sure I agree with all the schematics of this thread, but this is more worthy of reading then some other garbage out there

80% of the real money is covered by insurance, but the cap hit doesn't count towards their floor. After signing bonuses OTT would end up paying Marleau around the same real money but would save $5M in getting to the cap floor. It's a big real money saving move for Melnyk.

Compensation would be 4 1st rounders. It's conceivable that they might prefer a trade and I tried to make the value realistic. When the Leafs traded for Kessel, it was because Toronto was threatening an offer sheet. The Bruins and Leafs decided to go to the table and make a trade instead.
OS compensation is static; teams might mutually look to modify the terms of the exchange and so the obvious solution is a trade.

The scenario is the threat of an offer sheet resulting in a trade. There's no real value in Lou concealing his intent to OS Marner and as much as I dislike the guy I'd wager that he'd consider it gentlemanly to be upfront about his interest if asked.

There's no scenario where the Leafs should not be spending all their cap space every year (or any team, really). You need to pay attention to the long term outlook, obviously, but if rebuilding you should be weaponizing it every year to acquire assets and if not you should be maxing it out to compete/acquire assets. Held cap space simply expires; it's a waste!
Acquiring the best D in the league on a long term deal, who is a RHD, is maybe the best possible use of cap space for the Leafs right now. The time for them to compete started three seasons ago with Matthews, Marner and Nylander on ELCs, instead, Lou clogged up the cap with half-measures designed to "build character" because he considers hockey teams his own personal doll house and doesn't understand aging curves or the salary cap. So instead, the time to compete is now, while they are still young.

That is precisely why I come to Capfriendly .. to get my daily dose of hockey info and avoid the media knuckleheads

Perhaps, but it isnt going to include Pulock or Dobson. Take Leddy to lessen the draft pick haul or otherwise we just soon lose the drat picks

I agree with a whole lot of this, especially your rationale on how to manage the cap and why a team should manage it that way.

Personally, I'm not sold on EK if only because I think his history with injuries has a taken a greater toll than what's being let on. I get it that he's still putting up points and playing well but there's times when you watch skate that something seems wrong.. could be something, could be nothing, it could just be me.

I think Lou gets a bad rap sometimes. Some of that is deserved and some not. He did alot of good in leafland in the time he was here, not the least if which was establishing order and credibility with the organization. We were a joke before he got here.. a not a funny one.

The one thing that baffles me with Lou is the Marleau contract. Given your rationale for how to manage the cap, and my belief that Marleau's 3 yr contract was set up as a 2 yr deal, then why didnt Lou just pay the 9M + over 2 years to give him his 18.75 M instead of paying that amount over 3 years?

Maybe my take has been wrong the whole time and Marleau always had every intention of playing the third year. And if that is true, then signing Marleau to that third year was a magor fail on Lou. If Marleau is around next season it really does put the leafs in a pickle.. that would be on Lou.

Maybe they reach a middle ground in this scenario, but it wouldn't include Pulock/Dobson/Wilde. I'd rather keep Pulock, not accept a cap dump in Zaitsev, and just pay the 4 firsts if these are the two options

just lame arguments here. OS. FIrst off like no team OS players because of the unwritten rule.
The second is, any offer sheet that would come in is probably going to come in from a winning team. Bravo in getting 4 late round 1st round picks. I'm sure that will really bring you back the type of quality you are losing in Marner. Hell I would be more than happy to give you the penguins next 4 first rounders for Marner. You'll be picking 25+ every year for the next 4 years. Good luck with that.
Third, never does the team trading a really good player get the value back in a trade. It's why they lost on the Kessel trade. It's why Ottawa lost on the Stone, Hoffman, and Karlsson trades. It's why Chicago lost on the Panarin trade. We can go on here but honestly I'm sure you get the point by now.
Just extremely ignorant arguments here. The best thing TO can do is sign Marner. He'll cost 11.6 or so. It's worth it.

If the Penguins offered up 4 firsts I hope the leafs would take it and run. We now have 7 1st round picks over the next 4 years to spend like drunken sailors if we choose to .. and package those 1sts up in trades to rebalance our cap and address roster needs, all while not putting much stress on our draft and develop model.

But riddle me this Pharrow.. if the Pens gave up the 4 1sts, what do they need to do to make their cap work and the roster better? And how would that make the pens a better team?

Not saying it can't be done, just that I'd actually like to see it so I can better understand how Marner is that valuable to team success, and how keeping him and giving him whatever he wants is better than what I can construct with 4 firsts and Marners cap space in this fake gm game..

They're getting Mitch Marner here, a star that everyone seems to think should be paid $11M. I don't think that Pulock and a 4th is a shocking return in the place of two 1sts. Pulock is good but the Isles seemkind of half-hearted about him, I don't know. He should probably be playing more than every other D on the PP and EV STR and he isn't so clearly they don't understand what they have in him.