@palhal @Jamiepo @LoganOllivier @Random2152 @blowing_the_zone @OldNYIfan @SammyT_51

Thread created for the purpose of asking a question, cause im to lazy to dig past to find if such things occured before

GARDINER ( CAR trade )



MARNER

How much time must pass between two extentions signing, i mean can they sign Marner long-term at 2020 TDL right after Offseason bridge deal to make it thru Cap crunch this Season



CAR lines in before their fans jump on me…..

Niederreiter – Aho – Williams ( Ferland )
Staal – Kadri - Teravainen

Slavin – Hamilton
De Haan – Faulk
Gardiner - TVR

Swap out kadri for Nylander and they might think it over

I sincerely hoped you will overlook the thread....i assume brocklesnar is incoming next......

I think your questions are -. Trading gardiner at the draft, yes that is a good idea. Won’t bring in much but a team wanting first negotiating rights would pay a mid pick.

Signing marner to a one year deal. This is risky for marner if he gets hurt before TDL or has a bad start. I think with a quick handshake deal something like this is plausible. Sign him to a 1 year 7m deal and then re sign him at the TDL. Which yes, is the earliest we can re sign him.

With marner taking a 2 year deal he will be up for renewal July 1 2020.

I think a 2x8 deal makes sense. 6 million year one, 10 million year 2

Holy **** we agree on a contract proposal.


I have his contracts options (for all years, even though some are extremely unlikely like the 1 year ones)
Marner options (Purely done by math):
8@11.616
7@10.866
6@10.116
5@9.366
4@8.616
3@8.241
2@7.866
1@7.491

Marner's Realistic Options (Rounded and/or added important numbers):
6@10.116
3@8.293
3@8.250
3@8.216

Gardiner or virtually any UFA: Teams don't have to trade for "negotiating rights " now. All teams have access to take to the player one week before the July 1st signing period. Player has gone that far, he can wait to see what offers he get from other teams.
Even if a team trades for rights, in June, they are still limited to offer him a seven year deal. Eight year deals are good for the team that holds his rights before TDL, not necessarily who holds them before July 1st.
As Yogi Berra said "Verbal deals aren't worth the paper they are written on". I don't think a one year deal for Marner is good for Marner or the Leafs. Marner might be injured. And his signing in the following extension just might be too much for the Leafs to swallow. If Marner signed a one year deal this summer, I believe he can renegotiate January 1st 2020 for an extension
I disagree with folks thinking that getting rid of Marleau in 2020/21 is suddenly going be a bonanza of riches to the Leafs. Dermot has to be signed. Maybe another Man. 4th liner centre, maybe a LWer, Bracco contract becomes due. So it's not like the Leafs can load a whole lotta money on Marner in. 2020/21.
Other teams...Sharks, Jets, Lightning, Penguins, maybe the Flames all have cap issues this summer, they can't bring back everyone or sign every they want. So Leaf fans should face facts...either a bunch of smaller cap players have to traded (a bad idea IMO), or maybe just one big cap could be traded. That's the reality when Tavares was signed, Matthews and Nylander were overpaid, and Kapanen, Johnsson and Marner have earned bigger contracts them previously thought. Something has to give. It's like Tampa....they have trade someone because Point and Kucherov earned big contracts. Do you think Tampa would have more "cap happier" if Point was a 3C and Kucherov a 70 point player?

The important thing for him would be the back load for his next qo

tbh it will be easy. i created the one below some time ago, thats why i bridged Marner for two years, cause Expansion draft would allow to boost kids contract with money ( and if you check, i got 6M RHD and 2M surplus....tho this money can be spent for Marner after one year bridge also ):

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/209934

lol

I thought QA's were up to a certain point and then they are just the same salary.
It would be some insurance to do so, but with the cap in two years time and 2 more years of Mitch playing with JT (or AM or both), it would really be meaningless. Also the Leafs get a TON of salary relief as soon as next (next-next?) year so we wouldn't have to hedge against anything like that. Paying more or less any RFA's will not be an issue after this off season.

The qualifying offer I think is a small raise like 5 or 10 percent off what you got the previous year.

And that gets caped at 0.925aav
https://www.capfriendly.com/qualifying-offer-calculator

I could have sworn there was a bit on this site that said it... The link appears to not, will try and find it.
edit: Found it! (and updated the link)
It goes up to 1.000 aav, then a QA is only 100% of the former salary

Huh. That must be new. I remember it was a sticking point for the Ryan orielly bridge

I just can't get enough of this party Matthews threw post signing.

QO for any contract over 1m is a 100% match if I’m not mistaken. But I also believe the QO is based off the AAV not the base salary.

I think in marners case with a potential lockout and the interest in investing the money I would max front load the contract. I’m sure marner understands his importance to the franchise and I din’t Think anyone would explain etc him to sign a QO.

In my scenario of a hand shake deal it is not about term or money but rather an agreement to negotiate in season as soon as the rights are available. @palhal ... just in case you were wondering I don’t expect a handshake on next contracts terms.

Qualifying offers, unless it’s changed, is based off salary, not aav

With the 5 x 11,634M every TML fan should be having tears of sour in the eyes after watching the "Signing Party"

Yup, I looked it up and you are correct. I don’t think marner will need a hefty QO. He will either be re signed long before one is due or be looking for more money than one would offer.

I would imagine that he would want heavy signing bonuses. They are taxed at 25% (for anyone saying Canadian teams have to oay more). I’m sure Mitch would love a 10m signing bonus this July to put 7.5m in his bank account to invest.

Tavares gets 71m if his 77m in signing bonus.

That means Tavares brings home roughly 55.65m or 72%. Of his contract. Where in Tampa he would only bring in 51.88m. Food for thought.

I am an accountant and know for a fact that the tax rates come down to place of residency with foreign tax credits given for taxes paid in the other country (US or Canada).
Here is a good article in Tavares' case. https://www.forbes.com/sites/seanpackard/2018/07/06/john-tavares-could-save-nearly-12-million-in-taxes-on-his-new-contract/#77fa711e1ab7
For Marner if he facts make his place of residency as Ontario then his signing bonus would be taxed at the Canada+Ontario maximum marginal tax rate of 53.53%

I think all of this is just over speculation. The reality of what happens will be way simpler than this.

I also don't agree that Marner's contract gets bigger the longer it is. I think Marner wants 10+ but that's a hard sell as a winger. I think the Leafs will agree to 10-10.5 but then it'll come down to term, Leafs will want longer term if he gets 10.

My guess is 10.5 x 8 or it'll be 10 for 7. Dubas will hold strong on term but bend a bit on cap hit. This whole he's going to get 11+ is speculation coming from Marner's camp wanting to feel the team respects him as much as Matthews and Tavares. Making him tied or possibly even slightly above Kane and Marner is going to have to sign for 8. I know that tax situation is brought up a lot but how many tax free States teams are there? How many of them are at or near the cap? How many star players are there? There is only so many teams that can offer that benefit, eventually they are tapped out and that argument is done. Tampa will be tight against the cap for the next 8 years at least. Florida if they get Bob and Panarin are tapped out, Vegas is already tapped out. So once those few teams have their own star players to deal with, the tax situation loses a lot of strength.

The other things is we have no idea how the value of the contracts is handed out. It's entirely possible the bonus structure offered by the Leafs is constructed as stock or other capital investments that may not be taxable until removed for the fund or whatever. There are ways to get around taxes. Especially with bonus money.

So with all that in mind, this circus around contracts is completely overblown. The media knows about 3% of what's going on in discussions most is probably super boring so they speculate on stuff that they think based on whatever fans are consumed with at the time.

Like the offersheet threat. It's stupid, because 1) a player has to sign it, teams a can't till July 1 and then automatically sign a player. They can't even talk to the player until they instruct their agents so seek a OS. 2) if there was a danger of losing a player to an OS, their GM would just trade them to the highest bidder and a player worth offer sheeting is worth trading for so many teams would be interested.

So I think I need to log off for a while, this is just getting too much.

Canes decline, Pesce is not going anywhere. If the Hurricanes need a winger or center they can get one July 1st. Pesce is on a team friendly contract and has formed one of the best shutdown parings in the league with Slavin.

Told ya

You are the king of the set up..,

@palhal @Jamiepo @LoganOllivier @Random2152 @blowing_the_zone @OldNYIfan @SammyT_51

Additional question

Could Marleau in agreement with Management pull Patrik Berglund on TML at 2019/2020 start ? Does his Cap stays on the books ? Or how that kind of situation resolves ?