Bite the bullet on Lucic Trade with TOR NYR MTL

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Created by: Dwight_Schrute

Team: 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers

Initial Creation Date: May 17, 2019

Published: May 17, 2019

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

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It is time to move on from Lucic. In a world with a rising cap and an owner with deep pockets we are better off to just buy him out than to trade him along with assets in order to retain salary anyway. Buying him our saves 3 Million this year, 375k next year, 1.8mil the year after that then $375k in the final year. The penalty is only a $600k hit for three years following the buy out. To me thats worth it. Just get him gone, if nothing else it clears a roster spot.

The Brodziak trade doesnt need to happen. We have the space to keep him as a scratch in this scenario but it would be preferable to move him.

Vesey and Brown trades seem like commons sense, it is my personal belief the draft picks might be a one round overpay in each scenario but we need winger depth like we need oxygen.

The Sekera for Shaw deal is where I know this thread becomes controversial. The Habs are in need of an upgrade to their defensive core at the NHL level, Sekera can be that, Shaw is also expendable there as they have many forwards that are better and or cheaper than he is plus it is my understanding that the Habs plan to target one of the bigger FA forwards. In this scenario the money is even, they trade an expendable guy from a surplus to upgrade a weakness, and they gain an early second round pick to either package or use to get a pretty decent prospect as well as a lottery ticket type prospect to try to develop. To me its fair but I am open to discussion, the Oilers could even probably retain more if need be.

Mrazek may be a long shot but I'm not sure anyone is going to be offering him a better contract than that. The Oilers need a goaltending upgrade and after Bobrovsky its my opinion that Mrazek is the best guy available to share a net with Koskinen.

It is my understanding that Cozens is the most NHL ready forward in the draft, if the Oil can get him it could instantly improve the top 6, if he isnt ready or if they go in a different direction Kassian could bump up like he did last year or they can give Puljujarvi another kick at it.

I like the bottom 6 here, a third line good in their own end and tough to play against that can kick in some offence, then a young talented fourth line that can ideally get an increased role as the season goes on and maybe eventually flip with what I have listed as the third. If they want to develop those players another year or if they struggle we have options like Gagner and Cave to come in and play 8 minutes a night at a passable fourth line level.

Blueline remains questionable. Banking on bounce back years from Klefbom and Larsson, continued upward development of Nurse and Jones, and stability as third pair guys from Russell and Benning. Gravel is fine to scratch and play in emergencies, Persson, Bouchard, and Bear will compete to be the first guys up if a long term hole opens up. It is a lot to ask of the group but for the first time in a long time the blueline isnt the biggest need for an upgrade this offseason.

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Puljujärvi, Jesse	2	$1,100,000
Khaira, Jujhar	3	$1,250,000
Gambardella, Joseph	3	$850,000
Starrett, Shane	3	$850,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Gravel, Kevin		1	$700,000
Mrázek, Petr		4	$4,500,000

CREATED		YEARS	CAP HIT
Cozens, Dylan		3	$950,000

Trades

EDM

Shaw, Andrew

MTL

Safin, Ostap
Sekera, Andrej ($1,600,000 retained)
2019 2nd round pick (EDM)

EDM

Brown, Connor

TOR

2020 3rd round pick (EDM)

EDM

Vesey, Jimmy ($1,000,000 retained)

NYR

2020 2nd round pick (EDM)

EDM

2019 6th round pick (VGK)

MIN

Brodziak, Kyle

Buyouts

Benoit Pouliot: $1,333,333
Eric Gryba: $300,000
Milan Lucic: $3,625,000

Retained Salary Transactions

Andrej Sekera: $1,600,000 (106.67%)

Buried

Brandon Manning: $1,175,000 ($2,250,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2019
2020
2021

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$83,000,000	$80,655,332	$0	$177,500	$2,344,668

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Brown, Connor $2,100,000$2,100,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	McDavid, Connor $12,500,000$12,500,000 C UFA - 7	Draisaitl, Leon $8,500,000$8,500,000 C, LW UFA - 6
Vesey, Jimmy $1,275,000$1,275,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan $6,000,000$6,000,000 LW, C UFA - 2	Cozens, Dylan $950,000$950,000
Khaira, Jujhar $1,250,000$1,250,000 LW, C UFA - 2	Shaw, Andrew $3,900,000$3,900,000 C, RW UFA - 3	Kassian, Zack $1,950,000$1,950,000 RW UFA - 1
Benson, Tyler $808,333$808,333 ($32,500$32K) LW, RW UFA - 2	Marody, Cooper $925,000$925,000 ($75,000$75K) C, RW UFA - 2	Puljujärvi, Jesse $1,100,000$1,100,000 RW UFA

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Nurse, Darnell $3,200,000$3,200,000 LD UFA - 1	Larsson, Adam $4,166,666$4,166,666 RD UFA - 2	Mrázek, Petr $4,500,000$4,500,000 G UFA - 2
Klefbom, Oscar $4,167,000$4,167,000 LD UFA - 4	Jones, Caleb $720,000$720,000 ($70,000$70K) LD/RD UFA - 1	Koskinen, Mikko $4,500,000$4,500,000 G M-NTC UFA - 3
Russell, Kris $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD/RD M-NTC, NMC UFA - 2
	Benning, Matthew $1,900,000$1,900,000 RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Cave, Colby $675,000$675,000 C RFA - 1
Gravel, Kevin $700,000$700,000 LD UFA - 1
Gagner, Sam $2,835,000$2,835,000 RW, C UFA - 1

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Cozens, D.		Draisaitl, L.		Nugent-Hopkins, R.
	Klefbom, O.		McDavid, C.

Power Play 2
Vesey, J.		Shaw, A.		Puljujärvi, J.
	Benson, T.		Nurse, D.

Penalty Kill 1
	Shaw, A.	Khaira, J.
	Nurse, D.	Larsson, A.

Penalty Kill 2
	Kassian, Z.	Nugent-Hopkins, R.
	Russell, K.	Benning, M.

May 17, 2019 at 5:04 p.m.

DripBayless

Joined: Apr. 2018

Posts: 1,584

Likes: 390

I see what you're getting at but look at your roster. A THIRD of your forward group are rookies, I think we've seen that before ie. Oilers 2011-2012? or maybe 2012-2013? Regardless, it didn't work then, it's not gonna work now.

You want cap flexibility or stability? Stay away from buyouts. You're turning a 4 year problem into an 8 year mess. Either find a team/teams who want him at 3M/1.5M without giving up too much or tell him to watch the game from the pressbox.

May 17, 2019 at 5:11 p.m.

Godfried

Joined: Dec. 2018

Posts: 404

Likes: 106

Quoting: ConnorsCousin

You sound like a young Peter chiarreli talking like that. Buyout isnt ideal, but nothing about lucic is ideal. There is a lot of good here and benson, yammo, marody and cozens are young and if you read the description you'd see that none of them need to play.

Overall I think it's a good option. Vesey and cozens scares me but I mean, nuge always gets to play with crap, better than khaira and gagner.

Dwight_Schrute liked this.

May 17, 2019 at 5:15 p.m.

DripBayless

Joined: Apr. 2018

Posts: 1,584

Likes: 390

Quoting: Carter_G

young PC? Did you know that the only two seasons that actually save the Oilers money in a Lucic buyout is this summer and two summers from now? in year 2 and 4 of the buyout they would actually lose cap space because they need to sign a player on league minimum contract. Then add the other 4 years of cap penalty and that's years and years of dead cap space. Maybe young PC was better than old PC cus he won a cup 8 years ago

Smokingun71 liked this.

May 17, 2019 at 5:17 p.m.

Smokingun71

Joined: Apr. 2018

Posts: 1,616

Likes: 748

In this cap world buying out Lucic with the little savings it would bring us would be bad use of the cap money. I understand that we need to move on from Lucic but I am 100% against buying him out. When Sekera is healthy he is an above average defenseman, adding in Safin and a second to me is an overpayment. I personally don't like Shaw, he is too much of a hot head and takes really stupid penalties. You can't put Puljujarvi in the minors without him clearing waivers so that can't be done. Getting Brown and Vesey is fine.

May 17, 2019 at 5:20 p.m.

Smokingun71

Joined: Apr. 2018

Posts: 1,616

Likes: 748

Quoting: ConnorsCousin

I agree, buying out Lucic would be the worst thing cap wise that we could do! I don't understand why so many Oiler fans think it is a good idea.

mk458 liked this.

May 17, 2019 at 5:21 p.m.

mk458

MK458

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 2,107

Likes: 928

Yeah buying out Lucic makes no sense. Almost no cap savings for years 2 and 4. Then a cap penalty for the next 4 years.

Smokingun71 liked this.

May 17, 2019 at 5:21 p.m.

Dwight_Schrute

Thread Starter

Dwight_Schrute

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 648

Likes: 196

Quoting: ConnorsCousin

I make note that there are options like Gagner and Cave around, you dont have to trade brodziak and can probably sign a bottom 6 vet for cheap if you want to. But would you rather do that and be terrible or give the younger players a chance in sheltered roles and hope to be better, if they dont work then send them down. But with the exception of Cozens in this scenario all the players with rookie designation have pro hockey experience, they are older prospects who are at most a year away from being expected on this team anyway. I dont see what it hurts to try them.

I think you are dead wrong about the buy out. Nobody is going to want him even if we retain half his salary unless we include a pick or prospect. We might as well just get rid of him and take the 600k punishment for the extra couple years, its not like that hurts very much. At this point just having Lucic as one of the 50 contracts hurts this team. Lets just bite the bullet and get him out of our uniform.

May 17, 2019 at 5:23 p.m.

Dwight_Schrute

Thread Starter

Dwight_Schrute

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 648

Likes: 196

Quoting: Smokingun71

I agree, buying out Lucic would be the worst thing cap wise that we could do! I don't understand why so many Oiler fans think it is a good idea.

BECAUSE NOBODY ****ING WANTS HIM THATS WHY. Its better to just be rid of him and pay 600k a year against the cap for the extra three years than it is to have him counting against the contract limit. Nobody is going to take him even for half his cap hit unless we add a significant pick or prospect.

toddbertuzzi44 liked this.

May 17, 2019 at 5:25 p.m.

Dwight_Schrute

Thread Starter

Dwight_Schrute

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 648

Likes: 196

Quoting: mk458

Yeah buying out Lucic makes no sense. Almost no cap savings for years 2 and 4. Then a cap penalty for the next 4 years.

Yes but it is a cap savings in years 1 and 3 and the penalty is hardly anything for the 4 years. I am fine with paying 600k a year for 4 years once he is gone in order to get him off the damn roster. Nobody is taking him even for half his cap unless we add an asset. The 600k after he is gone is easily worked around. Just get rid of him.

May 17, 2019 at 5:26 p.m.

#10

Dwight_Schrute

Thread Starter

Dwight_Schrute

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 648

Likes: 196

Quoting: ConnorsCousin

Exactly. If we dont buy him out this year we are stuck with him for two more years after this. Just end the suffering, he is a negative just by being on the roster. So what if it doesnt save a ton of money it saves some so just end the misery.

May 17, 2019 at 5:28 p.m.

#11

DripBayless

Joined: Apr. 2018

Posts: 1,584

Likes: 390

Quoting: Smokingun71

I agree, buying out Lucic would be the worst thing cap wise that we could do! I don't understand why so many Oiler fans think it is a good idea.

a good tool that this site has is having the long term outlook tab and just looking at that when making these decisions should help people understand why buyouts are never good. In year 2, they'd have 7M in dead cap space.

My takes on how to get rid of Lucic:
1) swap bad contract for bad contract and hope they both do well in new environments.
2) retain 50% to a team that actually wants him at 3M and get minimal assets back
3) 3 way trade to a contender
4) simply sit him in the press box

I have no doubt that he'd waive for Seattle in 2 years considering he'll be close to home, I have no doubt he himself probably would accept a trade anywhere at this point. If we have him the offseason prior to the expansion draft that's when we either buy him out or toss Seattle a 1st rounder to select him. Til then, he can be on the roster, just not get any playing time.

May 17, 2019 at 5:30 p.m.

#12

DripBayless

Joined: Apr. 2018

Posts: 1,584

Likes: 390

Quoting: FlamesBlow

Negative having him on the roster in what way? From the sounds of the guys talking about Lucic, he's still a leader in the room and well liked. Personally, as long as we don't see him on the ice, it won't affect team performance. Just take him out the lineup if we can't trade him, it's not like we need to play him.

May 17, 2019 at 5:37 p.m.

#13

SomethingKindaGeneric

Joined: Jan. 2018

Posts: 170

Likes: 35

NYR happily takes that deal but you definitely don't want Vesey in your top 6

May 17, 2019 at 6:05 p.m.

#14

Dwight_Schrute

Thread Starter

Dwight_Schrute

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 648

Likes: 196

Quoting: SomethingKindaGeneric

NYR happily takes that deal but you definitely don't want Vesey in your top 6

Not like we have many other options. At this point we take a younger fringe top 6 guy and cross our fingers.

May 17, 2019 at 6:32 p.m.

#15

SomethingKindaGeneric

Joined: Jan. 2018

Posts: 170

Likes: 35

Quoting: FlamesBlow

Not like we have many other options. At this point we take a younger fringe top 6 guy and cross our fingers.

As someone who watched NYR all year, if it were up to me I'd take Namestnikov over Vesey. Maybe he's a worse shot but he's a better everything else. If Names was great with Stamkos I bet he can find it again with those EDM centers, and I think a 2020 2nd is definitely fair value for him at 2mil retained

May 17, 2019 at 6:39 p.m.

#16

Dwight_Schrute

Thread Starter

Dwight_Schrute

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 648

Likes: 196

Quoting: ConnorsCousin

He takes up a roster spot and more money than he is worth. We are better just shelling out the money and having a free roster space and available contract.

May 17, 2019 at 6:40 p.m.

#17

Dwight_Schrute

Thread Starter

Dwight_Schrute

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 648

Likes: 196

Quoting: SomethingKindaGeneric

If the money works out then sure. We arent in a position to be picky over potential top 6 candidates

May 18, 2019 at 2:31 a.m.

#18

Dwight_Schrute

Thread Starter

Dwight_Schrute

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 648

Likes: 196

Quoting: ConnorsCousin

I know this is late but for some reason I just saw this comment now. My response to this would be:

1. There is no contract this bad, we would be adding assets to even get Loui Eriksson or someone in that mould. Players like Ladd or Backes who also have bad cap hits and term also have NMC and are less likely than Lucic is to waive to come to Edmonton, I can’t see this happening and it is still going to be around 6 million in essentially dead money.

2. Even at 50% retained we aren’t getting assets back and probably have to attach something appealing still which is a bad idea

3. 3 way trades almost never happen. No contender wants Lucic.

4. Sitting him is still a waste in valuable cap and contract space.

The worst thing we could do would be to add a first round pick to Seattle to take him; we are in no position to be trading first round picks or prospects just to offload the guy. Just bit the bullet of 600k for four years that’s incredibly workable especially with a rising cap.

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