Forums/Armchair-GM

MOAR CHANGES

Created by: CD282
Initial Creation Date: May 21, 2019
Published: May 21 at 6:47 pm
Team: 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers
Team Explanation
I'm sure it's been done before but I'm trading a useful player under contract for a return, then replacing him with a free agent who cost nothing but cash. It's the easiest way of adding skill, something Edmonton sorely needs to do up front.

DUCHENE: I've seen some on here trying to shoot down Duchene signings by saying that he's already made a decision and there's no chance of him going anywhere but Nashville, but it appears that's untrue. Just yesterday theathletic.com reported that "while there’s been steady speculation he’ll end up in Nashville, another source shot down the notion it’s a done deal.

“It’s wide open,” he said."

STRALMAN: Some are insisting that Stralman won't leave Tampa, but that too appears premature. In the same article at theathletic.com, Craig Custance wrote that "the Lightning are in a cap crunch and there haven’t been any talks of note between Stralman and the Lightning, although neither side has ruled anything out. “No discussions with Tampa,” said his agent Marc Levine on Friday. “None.”" I'm giving him $4M x 2 years to give the young prospects plenty of time to work on their games so they aren't rushed into the top-4 prematurely.

DETROIT: I'm not sure whether the Wings would consider this trade based on their need, but the value is approximately right. Nugent-Hopkins is an accomplished, veteran center who, along with Larkin, will give the Red Wings a decent 1-2 punch down the middle. Just 1 year older than Mantha, RNH has played more than twice as many games and his per-82 scoring average of 22-36-58 outpaces Mantha's 26-25-51. His recent season totals shine like a diamond too: 82, 28-41-69 vs 67, 25-23-48 for Mantha. Both very good young players, but Nugent-Hopkins consistently outproduces Mantha while being more defensively responsible, playing greater minutes and playing a more important position.

FLORIDA: I've seen this trade around here a bit, not sure what it does for the Panthers except they clearly need to move a goalie or 2 if Bobrovsky is coming in, and this is nearly cap neutral. Contrary to what some here believe, Russell is a defenseman in the NHL who was +5 on a team that was -42, consistently puts up 5v5 points commensurate with his cap hit, and effectively covered off over 20:24 per night - none of that on the power play.

VANCOUVER: Benning is moved to clear a roster slot for prospects who are ready to come and have (I believe) a higher ceiling than he does. He has played very well in a 3rd pairing role in each of his 3 seasons, so I'd be happy to keep him in other circumstances. Plus-11 this year (and + every year), he puts up 20-ish points per 82 too. I chose a 2nd as the return because that's what Carolina paid for TVR - even though Benning's numbers are better (and he's younger) than TVR was at the time of the trade. Not sure if Vancouver is the right fit, but a player like Benning could fit in almost anywhere.

ARIZONA: Basically a cap dump, although not an entirely necessary one because I replaced him with Donskoi who is making similar money. I'd be happy to keep Gagner as he played well here, his production rates work out to 15-18-33 over a full season. And I wouldn't be worried about his defensive lapses if he was playing on that 3rd line, either. So this is optional, I replaced him with Donskoi because I wanted more speed on that line - more on this later.

OTTAWA: I rarely ever include Lucic trades in my mocks, but thought I'd throw it in just for fun. Three decent prospects to Ottawa in exchange for taking on Lucic's cap hit, and Lucic can still help in their bottom-6 next year. The trade would occur after Lucic's $3M bonus is paid July 1st, leaving just $16M owed to Milan over the next 4 years. Ottawa can retain and flip him if they want. In point of fact I have nearly $5M in cap space so I could retain too, or keep Lucic and skip the Donskoi signing, etc. I'm not married to the Lucic trade at all.

WASHINGTON: The Caps are in a bit of a difficult place with Burakovsky: he must be qualified at $3.25M this summer - a contract that he hasn't earned - otherwise he becomes a UFA. They can try to offer him less, but seeing as he's getting 4th line minutes in Washington he really has no motivation to take a discount to stay. He probably doesn't think he's a 4th liner either, and I don't blame him for that. Washington can attempt to trade him also, but anybody who trades for him will also have to qualify him at $3.25M or he becomes a UFA July 1st. Nobody is going to risk real assets trading for a guy who may never play a single game for them, so I'm proposing trading a conditional 3rd for his negotiating rights, as I'm fairly certain he'll sign for less than the $3.25M he earned in 2018-19 to come to Edmonton and be re-united with McDavid, whom he had success with in junior.

**********************************************************************

THE ROSTER

The idea here is to create 3 scoring lines and a 4th line that can forecheck like demons, similar to the way the Blues 4th line is creating havoc for San Jose. Our 3rd line will be a soft-minutes line focused primarily on offensive opportunities.

FIRST LINE: At first blush it looks like I'm saddling the greatest player in the game with underachieving wingers, and to a certain extent that's true. But, as mentioned above, Burakovsky has had previous experience with McDavid and they looked very good together, I think some of the old magic could be revived at the pro level. Two things about replacing Draisaitl with Puljujarvi on McDavid's wing: McDavid's production doesn't suffer and Puljujarvi produces nearly as well with McDavid as Draisaitl does. It looks like this in points-per-60 for 5v5 scoring over the last 3 seasons combined:

Draisaitl with McDavid: 2.79 (1981:04)
Puljujarvi with McDavid: 2.76 (152:10 - when Lucic is not on the other wing - w/ Maroon, Slepyshev, Caggiula, etc.)

McDavid with Draisaitl: 3.24 (1981:04)
McDavid with Puljujarvi: 3.24 (407:45 - includes TOI with Lucic)

So it looks like removing Draisaitl from the 1st line and inserting Puljujarvi won't affect the 1st line scoring rates at all, and adding Burakovsky to that line (over the likes of Kassian, Caggiula, etc) might actually boost it slightly.

SECOND LINE: Twenty-one-year-old Tyler Benson was one of the top-scoring rookies in the AHL this year, landing him a spot on the all-rookie team. His scouting report reads: "owns an intriguing combination of shooting ability and hockey sense, so he can play on any line and in any role on a hockey team at the highest level. Makes his teammates better. Is a very mature, smart player." He's an elite passer and works hard on the boards while having outstanding vision, he should mesh well with Draisaitl. I'm betting that he's ready for a top-6 role if given strong line-mates, and I've think I've succeeded here. Draisaitl is one of the best young centers in the game, can score and set-up his wingers equally well. Already known for his elite passing skills, he's done what no other player other than Ovechkin has done in the past 7 years: scored 50 goals. Interestingly, all 50 came against goalies, whereas 4 of Ovi's 51 were empty net goals this year. Did I mention he's just 23? Mantha doesn't have the vision or passing abilities of the other 2, but that should just mean that he's on the receiving end of a LOT of scoring chances. I think Edmonton would be wise to give him an extension this summer, before his scoring explodes playing with one of Edmonton's superstar centers.

THIRD LINE: This is a soft-minutes offense-oriented line, with tons of speed and skill but less 2-way responsibility. Duchene is a veteran who will bring exceptional offense every night, Dach a young rookie with outstanding ability finding his way, with the speedy Donskoi on the starboard side providing work ethic and speed for days. This should be a very difficult line to contain once they get acclimated to each other - as long as the coaching staff can keep them from playing in their own end against the oppositions elite players.

FOURTH LINE: I think I've done a pretty fair job recreating what St Louis has in their 4th line - lots of speed, size and forechecking ability. Gambardella is an energy player who wins a lot of puck battles thanks to a strong lower base. He was a major scoring threat in college and the AHL while playing his relentless forechecking game, he probably won't be in the NHL but certainly could pot some when the opportunities arise - and he's good at creating those opportunities. Khaira has great size (6-4, 214 pounds) and likes to play a physical brand of hockey - and he does it effectively. Kassian has tremendous size and strength as well as the ability to dominate in the corners. He's aggressive, can fight and boasts some decent playmaking skills. He can also score, his 15 goals this year is a testament to that. This line should bring aggression and physicality while also being a threat to score on occasion.

DEFENSE: the defense is little changed: Stralman brought in to bring better passing to the second pair while providing a temporary roadblock for the prospects coming, Jones and Persson claiming the #6 and 7 spots on merit. Jones had a fantastic season in the AHL this year, played in all situations and against the toughest competition, scoring 29 points and posting a +16 rating in just 50 games in the AHL. A brief 17-game stint in the NHL this year had the 21-year-old posting 6 points from the backend - even though about half of those minutes were on the 1st pairing (!) due to injuries. He played 3rd pairing with a collection of non-NHL players and did just fine. Persson is an offensive dynamo from Sweden, having posted 31 points in just 50 games for the Vaxjo Lakers of the SHL this year. He should also be ready for NHL 3rd pair, I have his as 7th man because he might need an adjustment period as it's his first time playing on the smaller North American ice.

Sekera is finally healthy and should be a competent top-4 guy again next year, I have him playing 3rd pair and mentoring the young guys. He's excellent in this role and great injury cover for when one of the top-4 guys goes down. Speaking of injury cover, there are several players in Bakersfield that could be in Edmonton on merit playing 6th or 7th man, mainly Lagesson and Lowe. Also, the general consensus is that neither Bouchard nor Samorukov will be long in the AHL, and newly signed Filip Berglund has 3 years of pro experience in Sweden's top league and could be pushing by New Years too.

Good times.

GOALTENDING: Yeah, it's underwhelming, but I'm hoping these 2 can produce league average results. I don't think we need anything more than that to make the playoffs with the improvements I've made up front. It's not a stretch, either. Reimer was above league average 3 of the last 4 years, while Koskinen was about average until Hitchcock began starting him in every game down the stretch, including both sides of back-to-backs. Understandably, his numbers deteriorated. His 55 NHL games this year were a career high, and he still managed a .906 save percentage.
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
Berglund, Filip2$850,000
Hawkey, Hayden1$850,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Gambardella, Joseph1$750,000
Khaira, Jujhar2$1,100,000
Puljujärvi, Jesse2$1,350,000
Starrett, Shane2$800,000
Burakovsky, André2$1,850,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Duchene, Matt6$8,000,000
Strålman, Anton2$4,000,000
Donskoi, Joonas3$2,500,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Dach, Kirby3$925,000
Day, Logan1$750,000
Trades
EDM
  1. Mantha, Anthony
  2. 2019 2nd round pick (NYI)
DET
  1. Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan
EDM
  1. Reimer, James
FLA
  1. Russell, Kris
EDM
  1. 2020 2nd round pick (VAN)
VAN
  1. Benning, Matthew
EDM
  1. 2019 6th round pick (CBJ)
ARI
  1. Gagner, Sam
EDM
  1. 2020 6th round pick (OTT)
OTT
  1. Lucic, Milan
  2. Bear, Ethan
  3. Yamamoto, Kailer
  4. McLeod, Ryan
EDM
  1. Burakovsky, André [RFA Rights]
WSH
  1. 2020 3rd round pick (EDM)
The 2020 pick is conditional on Burakovsky signing in Edmonton.
Buyouts
  • Benoit Pouliot: $1,333,333
  • Eric Gryba: $300,000
Retained Salary Transactions
  • Milan Lucic: $750,000 (13%)
Buried
  • Brandon Manning: $1,175,000 ($2,250,000)
  • Kyle Brodziak: $75,000 ($1,150,000)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2019
EDM
EDM
NYI
NYI
EDM
EDM
CBJ
EDM
2020
EDM
EDM
VAN
EDM
EDM
EDM
OTT
2021
EDM
EDM
EDM
EDM
EDM
EDM
EDM
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
24$83,000,000$80,682,832$0$602,500$2,317,168
Left WingCenterRight Wing
Burakovsky, André
$1,850,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
EDM
McDavid, Connor
$12,500,000
C
UFA - 7
EDM
Puljujärvi, Jesse
$1,350,000
RW
RFA
EDM
Benson, Tyler
$808,333
LW
RFA - 2
EDM
Draisaitl, Leon
$8,500,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 6
DET
Mantha, Anthony
$3,300,000
RW, LW
RFA - 1
Duchene, Matt
$8,000,000
C, LW
UFA - 7
Dach, Kirby
$925,000
Donskoi, Joonas
$2,500,000
RW
UFA - 4
EDM
Gambardella, Joseph
$750,000
LW
UFA - 2
EDM
Khaira, Jujhar
$1,100,000
C, LW
RFA - 2
EDM
Kassian, Zack
$1,950,000
RW
UFA - 1
EDM
Cave, Colby
$675,000
C
RFA - 1
EDM
Currie, Josh
$687,500
RW, C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
EDM
Klefbom, Oscar
$4,167,000
LD
UFA - 4
EDM
Larsson, Adam
$4,166,666
RD
UFA - 2
EDM
Koskinen, Mikko
$4,500,000
G
NTC
UFA - 3
EDM
Nurse, Darnell
$3,200,000
LD
RFA - 1
Strålman, Anton
$4,000,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 3
FLA
Reimer, James
$3,400,000
G
UFA - 2
EDM
Sekera, Andrej
$5,500,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 2
EDM
Jones, Caleb
$720,000
LD
RFA - 1
EDM
Sekera, Andrej
$1,500,000
LD
UFA - 1
EDM
Persson, Joel
$1,000,000
RD
RFA - 1

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May 21 at 6:48
#1
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 4,796
Likes: 933
May 21 at 6:57
#2
Oilers, Bruins, Habs
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 905
Likes: 391
A lot of "what if's" here. Dach probably goes earlier. And although it isn't set in stone but little chance Duchene signs in EDM. Other than that I'm a huge fan of this idea.
May 21 at 6:58
#3
Oilers, Bruins, Habs
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 905
Likes: 391
Bouchard??
May 21 at 7:06
#4
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 809
Likes: 306
I know we need to get rid of Lucic but man that’s a lot to sacrifice
Nhl_oilers liked this.
May 21 at 7:08
#5
EthanBearForVezina
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 949
Likes: 333
Not a fan of the Ottawa trade. You’re giving up 3 solid prospects just to rid of Lucic’s contract. Highly doubt duchene signs here but you’re putting him on the third line lol. Not a fan of taking dach either, way too inconsistent for my liking.
May 21 at 7:10
#6
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 15,100
Likes: 3,461
Quality post here and regardless whether or not I agree with some of the trades and whatnot, it needs to be said. Good job!

-Don't think Duchene to EDM makes sense in the slightest.
-As others have said, Dach more than likely is gone by that time but that isn't a big issue. Replace with Zegras or Boldy or Krebs, etc
-I think Burakovsky will cost more and if the pick is only awarded if he signs, than that is a terrible trade for Washington who has no reason to lose him for nothing when they could just resign him and then trade him.
- Love the Russell for Reimer trade. Its make tons of sense.
- I would have to see but does Detroit need RNH for 2 more season? He may want to not resign with Detroit leaving them with 2 good years of RNH but right when they're starting to get good again, he leaves... lots more control with Mantha and Detroit is clearly rebuilding. They'll keep all their picks as much as possible. Mantha if he signs a new RFA 5 year contract , he will be there for quite a while longer than RNH potentially could.
- Some of the other trades are a little sided in EDM's favor but not worth mentioning. Benning for a 2nd is too high IMO.

If this all happened, EDM would be much improved for sure but my gut says half of it wouldn't.
CD282 liked this.
May 21 at 7:18
#7
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 3,342
Likes: 804
CD282 liked this.
May 21 at 7:36
#8
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 3,342
Likes: 804
On the Detroit trade I think the value is close as a Wings fan I rather see 3rd going to Edmonton. I seriously doubt Detroit moves Mantha this off season. With about 2-3 weeks left in the season Mantha was in a slump and trading him looked like a definite possibility. Then he went off 8g + 7a for 15 points in the last 8 games and that quickly cooled down trade rumors. Now his performance in the World Championships probably took him off the trade block all together. Personally I just don't see Yzerman making any big trades before the season starts.
CD282 liked this.
May 21 at 8:25
#9
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 319
Likes: 60
Detroit just isn't trading Mantha, certainly not adding on top of it for RNH. They need goal scoring wingers more than a pass first center. The hope is Veleno will fill the 2C role, no need for Wings to deviate from that plan atp.
May 22 at 7:47
#10
Thread Starter
Joined: Mar 2017
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Quoting: ConnorMcHellebucyk
A lot of "what if's" here. Dach probably goes earlier. And although it isn't set in stone but little chance Duchene signs in EDM. Other than that I'm a huge fan of this idea.


I was going off Corey Pronman's list over at the Athletic. He has Dach 10th. If Dach goes earlier it just means that someone else good is available.
ConnorMcHellebucyk liked this.
May 22 at 8:33
#11
Thread Starter
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 4,796
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Quoting: Smokingun71
I know we need to get rid of Lucic but man that’s a lot to sacrifice


Quoting: EthanBearForVezina
Not a fan of the Ottawa trade. You’re giving up 3 solid prospects just to rid of Lucic’s contract.


LOL, most Lucic trades on here get panned for being too meager, so I went overboard. As I've said before, I think there's a market for Lucic with 50% retained, but I wanted to try something different here.
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May 22 at 8:44
#12
Thread Starter
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Quoting: EthanBearForVezina
Not a fan of taking dach either, way too inconsistent for my liking.


Do you know who else has all the tools but was drafted later due to concerns about inconsistency? Dmitri Samorukov. Another? Kirill Maksimov. This is how you pick up gems later than they should be.

Also, this is precisely why I put Dach between Duchene and Donskoi: both are guys with incredible motors who play with intensity. Dach will have to work every shift to keep up.
May 22 at 8:48
#13
Thread Starter
Joined: Mar 2017
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Quoting: aedoran


Cool, thanks!
aedoran liked this.
May 22 at 8:57
#14
Thread Starter
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Quoting: aedoran
On the Detroit trade I think the value is close as a Wings fan I rather see 3rd going to Edmonton. I seriously doubt Detroit moves Mantha this off season. With about 2-3 weeks left in the season Mantha was in a slump and trading him looked like a definite possibility. Then he went off 8g + 7a for 15 points in the last 8 games and that quickly cooled down trade rumors. Now his performance in the World Championships probably took him off the trade block all together. Personally I just don't see Yzerman making any big trades before the season starts.


I agree, neither of these guys are likely to be traded. Nice to see I was close on the value though.
aedoran liked this.
May 22 at 10:05
#15
EthanBearForVezina
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 949
Likes: 333
Quoting: CD282
Do you know who else has all the tools but was drafted later due to concerns about inconsistency? Dmitri Samorukov. Another? Kirill Maksimov. This is how you pick up gems later than they should be.

Also, this is precisely why I put Dach between Duchene and Donskoi: both are guys with incredible motors who play with intensity. Dach will have to work every shift to keep up.


Yeah, which is why they fell in the draft. I’d be okay with taking Dach if the oilers had a late 1st round pick and he was still available but there are better options out there at pick #8
May 22 at 10:12
#16
Thread Starter
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Quoting: EthanBearForVezina
Yeah, which is why they fell in the draft. I’d be okay with taking Dach if the oilers had a late 1st round pick and he was still available but there are better options out there at pick #8


Going off Pronman's list... nope.
May 22 at 10:24
#17
EthanBearForVezina
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 949
Likes: 333
Quoting: CD282
Going off Pronman's list... nope.


Pronman had dach at 10.
May 22 at 10:28
#18
Thread Starter
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Quoting: EthanBearForVezina
Pronman had dach at 10.


So? He's available at 8 and he's the best fit for Edmonton of the remaining players IMO.
May 22 at 11:40
#19
Thread Starter
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 4,796
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Quoting: F50marco
Quality post here and regardless whether or not I agree with some of the trades and whatnot, it needs to be said. Good job!

Thanks, I appreciate that!

Quoting: F50marco
-Don't think Duchene to EDM makes sense in the slightest.

It makes perfect sense for Edmonton in the unlikely event Nuge is traded. Not sure if it makes sense for Duchene or not, I haven't asked him!

Quoting: F50marco
-As others have said, Dach more than likely is gone by that time but that isn't a big issue. Replace with Zegras or Boldy or Krebs, etc

I was going off Pronman's latest list, he has Dach at 10. I'd take Zegras if Dach goes earlier, or Cozens or whomever falls from the top 7 on Pronmans list. In other words, if Dach is gone that just means another quality piece is available. Not a problem.

Quoting: F50marco
-I think Burakovsky will cost more and if the pick is only awarded if he signs, than that is a terrible trade for Washington who has no reason to lose him for nothing when they could just resign him and then trade him.

Washington is in a tough spot with Bura. I don't think many (any?) teams will be lining up to pay him $3.25M, which is what they'll have to pay to retain his rights. If they don't come to terms and don't offer at least $3.25M, then he becomes a UFA and they get nothing at all. In this scenario Edmonton offers a 3rd for the opportunity to talk to him, if he doesn't want to sign in Edmonton than they lose nothing. If talks between the Caps and Bura are going nowhere, this isn't a bad solution.

Quoting: F50marco
- Love the Russell for Reimer trade. Its make tons of sense.

Thanks! I wish I could take credit for it, but I can't.

Quoting: F50marco
- I would have to see but does Detroit need RNH for 2 more season? He may want to not resign with Detroit leaving them with 2 good years of RNH but right when they're starting to get good again, he leaves... lots more control with Mantha and Detroit is clearly rebuilding. They'll keep all their picks as much as possible. Mantha if he signs a new RFA 5 year contract , he will be there for quite a while longer than RNH potentially could.

I don't think the RNH for Mantha trade scenario is likely to happen, but it's pretty fair value and they do need a 2C. And Mantha doesn't really have much more control - he has two more years until UFA status just like Nuge - the only difference being his contract is up next year while he's still an RFA. He could sign 1-year and then be gone just the same. Would Nuge want to stay in Detroit? Nobody knows.

Quoting: F50marco
- Some of the other trades are a little sided in EDM's favor but not worth mentioning. Benning for a 2nd is too high IMO.

I showed my work in the team explanation and I'll stick by it: TVR was traded for a 2nd and his stats at the time weren't as good as Benning's.

Here's another way to look at it: from his draft year, only 7 second round picks have played more NHL games than Benning, and only 7 have more points than he does. If a team had picked him say 40th they would have been getting good value for that pick.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2012e.html

Quoting: F50marco
If this all happened, EDM would be much improved for sure but my gut says half of it wouldn't.

Isn't that the point of this forum? It's called ArmchairGM, it's not real life. The trades and signings I put together above are reasonable value-wise, but I don't expect Holland to do half of this either.
May 22 at 5:38
#20
EthanBearForVezina
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 949
Likes: 333
Quoting: CD282
So? He's available at 8 and he's the best fit for Edmonton of the remaining players IMO.


Highly disagree 🤷‍♂️
May 23 at 6:50
#21
Thread Starter
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 4,796
Likes: 933
Quoting: EthanBearForVezina
Highly disagree 🤷‍♂️


Which is well within your rights, of course. But it's funny - most people here think Dach will be selected before #8 and we won't have the opportunity anyhow.
May 24 at 6:40
#22
Thread Starter
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 4,796
Likes: 933
Quoting: ConnorMcHellebucyk
Bouchard??


Bouchard starts in the AHL. I reckon he gets most of a year there, just a cup of coffee towards the end of the season in Edmonton.
ConnorMcHellebucyk liked this.
 
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