Forums/Armchair-GM

The latest Sportsnet EK65 Point Serg

Created by: drumr0213
Initial Creation Date: May 22, 2019
Published: May 22 at 11:56 pm
Team: 2019-20 Tampa Bay Lightning
Team Explanation
My twitter feed is talking about picking up EK65 and trading Serg because of this article. Rory Boylen at SportsNet posted it today. Basically we were talking about if this team existed, should we trade Sergachev now b/c he would not be in Tampa's future plans. Remember we do have Foote we could call up although ideally we would like him to stay in Syracuse 1 more yr to get lots of ice time.

Summary with quotes from the article:
1) Lightning has tried to acquire EK a few times but now with a new GM, JBB might be willing to let go of pieces that Yzerman was not willing to do. (IE Serg)
2) Lightning need a "Kawhi Leonard type of move for their team to shake things up"
3) EK would take discount for Tampa based on "the Florida factor" and 2020 Tampa should be Cup contending.
4A) Brayden Point - "follow Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov [Point] takes a little less against the cap. Evolving Wild has Point’s projected cap hit at $8.24 million if he signs a five-year extension."
Note - I would do this option and his contact would be up when Stamkos's is over. Wink wink.
4b) Point - "Evolving Wild’s contract projections, if Tampa Bay walks Point straight to free agency with a four-year deal, the model has that coming in at a $7,696,313. If a three-year deal is in the cards, according to the projections that would shave off a bit more and come in at a $7,280,895 cap hit. Let’s choose that route." When his contract ends, he will still be a RFA for one more year.
5) Callahan - Joe Smith of the Athletic has already asked Callahan about this and he knows he'll probably not be back next yr. Rory writes he thinks if NYR don't land EK, than Callahan can go back to NY w/ TBL 1st as a sweetener.
6) JT Miller - His Mod NTC only has 8 teams he wont go to. He is 26 yr old (in his prime,) top 6 F, can play center, and on a great team friendly deal. He is traded for futures and no Cap coming back.
7) Fill in gaps - Sign Danick Martel RFA (Evolving Wild’s model) $769,044. Trade Erne and Paquette. Carter Verhaeghe, 23, led the AHL with 32 goals and 82 points this season. He’s also an RFA, but likely wouldn’t cost much more than $800,000. Alex Barre-Boulet, 22, also scored 32 goals in the AHL and will cost only $759,258 for another two seasons. Cory Conacher, 29, was the third-highest scoring Syracuse Crunch and costs only $700,000 against the cap. He’s the most experienced of the three and has 74 points in 189 NHL games. Not bad for a depth player.
8) Karlsson - He writes "For fun, let’s assume Karlsson becomes the third-highest paid blue-liner in the league and costs Tampa Bay an AAV of $8.3 million."

9) Here it is, the aftermath of signing Karlsson 20-21
Vasy, Cirelli, & Serg "Right away, you’re probably at least looking at an extra $10 million added against the cap with those three."
On my twitter feed, fans want Cernak. So Sergachev would be out if we had EK. Not enough cap to resign next year.
Killorn becomes a Mod NTC so he would have be moved.
Seattle expansion becomes a factor. My opinion here, likely hometown Johnson waives NTC and could captain that team. Would get top line minutes and power play time.



So yeah this is the latest buzz around Tampa.
What do y'all think?
Is Karlsson worth this?
Would Serg be moved?
Is the risk with Point worth it?
Would Heddy-EK & McD-Cernak be the top 4 D-core for the next 5-6 years to come?
Thoughts?


Disclaimer haha again, this is not a team I made, this is based on that article Rory wrote today at Sportsnet. So he gets credit and don't yell at me haha!
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Martel, Danick1$769,000
Point, Brayden3$7,280,895
Verhaeghe, Carter2$800,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Karlsson, Erik6$8,300,000
Trades
TBL
    NYR
    1. Callahan, Ryan
    2. 2019 1st round pick (TBL)
    TBL
    1. 2019 2nd round pick (COL)
    2. 2019 5th round pick (COL)
    Any playoff team or really close to it with some cap looking to take the next step next year. Avs, NYI, PHY, CBJ, NJD, BUF, etc.
    COL
    1. Miller, J.T.
    TBL
      any team for draft picks
      ANA
      1. Erne, Adam [RFA Rights]
      2. Paquette, Cédric [RFA Rights]
      Buyouts
      • Matthew Carle: $1,833,333
      • Vincent Lecavalier: $0
      DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
      2019
      COL
      TBL
      TBL
      COL
      TBL
      TBL
      CHI
      2020
      TBL
      TBL
      TBL
      TBL
      TBL
      TBL
      TBL
      2021
      TBL
      TBL
      TBL
      TBL
      TBL
      TBL
      TBL
      ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
      21$83,000,000$81,982,484$0$1,362,500$1,017,516
      Left WingCenterRight Wing
      TBL
      Johnson, Tyler
      $5,000,000
      LW, C, RW
      NTC
      UFA - 5
      TBL
      Point, Brayden
      $7,280,895
      C, RW
      RFA
      TBL
      Kucherov, Nikita
      $9,500,000
      RW
      UFA - 8
      TBL
      Palat, Ondrej
      $5,300,000
      RW, LW
      NTC
      UFA - 3
      TBL
      Stamkos, Steven
      $8,500,000
      C
      NMC
      UFA - 5
      TBL
      Gourde, Yanni
      $5,166,666
      RW, LW, C
      NTC
      UFA - 6
      TBL
      Killorn, Alex
      $4,450,000
      LW
      NTC
      UFA - 4
      TBL
      Cirelli, Anthony
      $728,333
      C
      RFA - 1
      TBL
      Joseph, Mathieu
      $728,333
      LW, RW
      RFA - 1
      TBL
      Verhaeghe, Carter
      $800,000
      C
      RFA - 1
      TBL
      Barré-Boulet, Alex
      $759,258
      C
      RFA - 2
      TBL
      Conacher, Cory
      $700,000
      LW
      UFA - 1
      TBL
      Martel, Danick
      $769,000
      LW
      RFA - 1
      Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
      TBL
      Hedman, Victor
      $7,875,000
      LD
      NMC
      UFA - 6
      Karlsson, Erik
      $8,300,000
      RD
      NMC
      UFA - 8
      TBL
      Vasilevskiy, Andrei
      $3,500,000
      G
      UFA - 1
      TBL
      McDonagh, Ryan
      $6,750,000
      LD
      NTC
      UFA - 7
      TBL
      Cernak, Erik
      $697,500
      RD
      RFA - 1
      TBL
      Domingue, Louis
      $1,150,000
      G
      UFA - 1
      TBL
      Sergachev, Mikhail
      $894,166
      LD
      RFA - 1
      TBL
      Rutta, Jan
      $1,300,000
      RD
      UFA - 1

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      May 23 at 12:01
      #1
      Joined: Apr 2018
      Posts: 1,314
      Likes: 337
      What’s Sergachev Value
      May 23 at 12:08
      #2
      Joined: May 2019
      Posts: 331
      Likes: 93
      Is karlsson worth it? IMO he's not what Tampa needs. If you're going to trade Sergachev, why not trade him with Callahan and keep the 1st. If you want an Erik Karlsson type (huge offensive production, suspect defense), why not take Erik Gustafsson. 7 million cheaper. !.
      May 23 at 12:20
      #3
      Thread Starter
      Joined: May 2017
      Posts: 111
      Likes: 36
      Quoting: capsin9
      What’s Sergachev Value


      He is an offensive weapon on defense. He's a top 4 easy, but could be a top 2. He plays the left side but for us is stuck behind Hedman and McD so we play him on his off side at RHD. He also plays our 2nd power play unit. His rookie yr had better number offensively b/c Coach Cooper sheltered him to help develop him. For example, 85% of his playing time was when we had an offensive faceoff. But last year, (his 2nd yr) he was trusted a lot more and has really grown on his defensive side. At end of season and playoffs, he was paired with Hedman as one of our top pairing. McD and Cernak was the other top pairing. I would say his value is pretty high. And he is on his ELC so is a cheap cap hit this coming year.
      TanSor liked this.
      May 23 at 12:23
      #4
      Thread Starter
      Joined: May 2017
      Posts: 111
      Likes: 36
      Quoting: Rusty_Shackelford
      Is karlsson worth it? IMO he's not what Tampa needs. If you're going to trade Sergachev, why not trade him with Callahan and keep the 1st. If you want an Erik Karlsson type (huge offensive production, suspect defense), why not take Erik Gustafsson. 7 million cheaper. !.


      You are making amazing points. I so agree with you. I don't think EK is what we need. Not worth losing Serg. Not worth a shorter deal with Point to afford EK. But ppl I really trust their opinion on and have talk shows and podcast here in Tampa on the Lightning think we should go for Karlsson. I don't get it so that is why I am here getting the CapFriendly community's opinion.
      TanSor liked this.
      May 23 at 12:25
      #5
      Joined: Apr 2018
      Posts: 1,314
      Likes: 337
      Quoting: drumr0213
      He is an offensive weapon on defense. He's a top 4 easy, but could be a top 2. He plays the left side but for us is stuck behind Hedman and McD so we play him on his off side at RHD. He also plays our 2nd power play unit. His rookie yr had better number offensively b/c Coach Cooper sheltered him to help develop him. For example, 85% of his playing time was when we had an offensive faceoff. But last year, (his 2nd yr) he was trusted a lot more and has really grown on his defensive side. At end of season and playoffs, he was paired with Hedman as one of our top pairing. McD and Cernak was the other top pairing. I would say his value is pretty high. And he is on his ELC so is a cheap cap hit this coming year.


      Use the caps as an example. What would he cost
      May 23 at 12:36
      #6
      Thread Starter
      Joined: May 2017
      Posts: 111
      Likes: 36
      Quoting: capsin9
      Use the caps as an example. What would he cost


      Evolving-Wild’s contract projections him as worth a 6 year deal at $4,666,158. In my opinion here in Tampa, he is super close to Kuch and Vasy and would likely do exactly like them and take a 3 yr bridge deal to stay here around $4M but that's just my opinion.
      capsin9 and TanSor liked this.
      May 23 at 12:41
      #7
      Joined: Jun 2017
      Posts: 4,151
      Likes: 2,223
      If I were the Wild GM I'd be extremely interested in Sergachev. Is there any pieces Tampa could want for him that we have? I don't think our GM wants to move Spurgeon, but I could see him being a better fit than EK for Tampa. Say we don't want to move him, I think anything except the obvious (Parise, Suter, Koivu), Kunin, Fiala, Donato, Kaprizov, and our 1st and 2nd would be on the table. Not sure anything else would be of interest, although Greenway for Sergachev could be a starter... We could take on Callahan if necessary, and I really like Tyler Johnson if we could work out a package.
      rja40 liked this.
      May 23 at 1:03
      #8
      Thread Starter
      Joined: May 2017
      Posts: 111
      Likes: 36
      Quoting: TanSor
      If I were the Wild GM I'd be extremely interested in Sergachev. Is there any pieces Tampa could want for him that we have? I don't think our GM wants to move Spurgeon, but I could see him being a better fit than EK for Tampa. Say we don't want to move him, I think anything except the obvious (Parise, Suter, Koivu), Kunin, Fiala, Donato, Kaprizov, and our 1st and 2nd would be on the table. Not sure anything else would be of interest, although Greenway for Sergachev could be a starter... We could take on Callahan if necessary, and I really like Tyler Johnson if we could work out a package.


      If the Bolts brought in EK, we would only be able to take on future value like AHL or draft picks. Our AHL is deep at forwards but we do need defensemen in the AHL. Also rumored our AHL goalie Connor Ingram will be traded even though he was an all-star last year. Rumor is he jokes around way too much and pulls pranks on the players and the players don't like it so ownership might trade him so we could use an AHL level goalie. Taking on Callahan's contract would help a lot on this scenario.

      BUT saying all that, I personally don't wanna move Serg (he is so good) and I don't want Karlsson. Yzerman wouldn't move Serg for Karlsson. That's saying something. What would you say to Spergeon for JT Miller and we could through in either Adam Erne or Paquette? I know yall wanna keep him but his 1 yr deal would be perfect for us and would give Foote one more year in the AHL to develop. I bet you Spergeon would come back as a free agent the following year. I know we couldn't afford to resign him. It would be a 1 yr rental.
      TanSor liked this.
      May 23 at 1:11
      #9
      Joined: Jun 2017
      Posts: 4,151
      Likes: 2,223
      Quoting: drumr0213
      If the Bolts brought in EK, we would only be able to take on future value like AHL or draft picks. Our AHL is deep at forwards but we do need defensemen in the AHL. Also rumored our AHL goalie Connor Ingram will be traded even though he was an all-star last year. Rumor is he jokes around way too much and pulls pranks on the players and the players don't like it so ownership might trade him so we could use an AHL level goalie. Taking on Callahan's contract would help a lot on this scenario.

      BUT saying all that, I personally don't wanna move Serg (he is so good) and I don't want Karlsson. Yzerman wouldn't move Serg for Karlsson. That's saying something. What would you say to Spergeon for JT Miller and we could through in either Adam Erne or Paquette? I know yall wanna keep him but his 1 yr deal would be perfect for us and would give Foote one more year in the AHL to develop. I bet you Spergeon would come back as a free agent the following year. I know we couldn't afford to resign him. It would be a 1 yr rental.


      That's all fair, Karlsson is really worrying with his injuries. He probably has 3-4 years out of him before he hits a wall and he'll most likely get a 7 year deal.

      As for the trade, I'd pass. We have a million left shot players which was a huge issue scoring for us. If we're moving Spurgeon, I want a young stud right shot C or RW and the only one Tampa has (Point) is worth a lot more than Spurgeon, especially as a rental. Personally, I think moving Spurgeon is smart since I don't see any way we make the playoffs next year and if he's not signed this offseason he will certainly walk in free agency. He has said he wants to win.
      May 23 at 1:49
      #10
      Thread Starter
      Joined: May 2017
      Posts: 111
      Likes: 36
      Quoting: TanSor
      That's all fair, Karlsson is really worrying with his injuries. He probably has 3-4 years out of him before he hits a wall and he'll most likely get a 7 year deal.

      As for the trade, I'd pass. We have a million left shot players which was a huge issue scoring for us. If we're moving Spurgeon, I want a young stud right shot C or RW and the only one Tampa has (Point) is worth a lot more than Spurgeon, especially as a rental. Personally, I think moving Spurgeon is smart since I don't see any way we make the playoffs next year and if he's not signed this offseason he will certainly walk in free agency. He has said he wants to win.


      I completely agree with you on Karlsson. Even though he is still under 30, he has had to carry Sens and has logged a lot of ice time. I think you nailed it with the 3-4 good years left. So ya need right-handed centers huh. Yeah Stammer, Point, and Johnson arent going anywhere. I'm sorry. But hey we have a UFA who centered our top line at the AHL level names Gabriel Dumont. He is a right-handed shot. He might become a free agent. I doubt he wants to resign with Tampa being that he's behind all our Centers. Could probably pick him up cheap too like $800,000 per yr on a short deal. Kind like a prove it to me contract. Yeah would love Spurgeon as a rental. Oof we would be so good. He would be paired with Hedman too. wow wow wow. Someone we might look at as a rental is Justin Faulk too. We well see.
      May 23 at 5:47
      #11
      BOLT LOVER
      Joined: Dec 2018
      Posts: 1,240
      Likes: 216
      Edited May 23 at 5:53
      This Sportsbet guy is clueless .. no Karlsson .. but explore trading Sergachev is what I have been saying. Some team will over value him .. he similarly to Dougie Hamilton situation .. Sergachev not needed here with Hedmen. We need a Risto or Faulk .. that's it. Not hard folks. Point 5 year 8.4Mish is what I have been saying and driven by RFA compensation levels.

      And to give a 1st to rid 4.3M off cap hit of Callahan is beyond stupid. Just buy him out. MORON.
      May 23 at 5:57
      #12
      Joined: May 2019
      Posts: 863
      Likes: 317
      Quoting: BOLTLOVER1
      This Sportsbet guy is clueless .. no Karlsson .. but explore trading Sergachev is what I have been saying. Some team will over value him .. he similarly to Dougie Hamilton situation .. Sergachev not needed here with Hedmen. We need a Risto or Faulk .. that's it. Not hard folks. Point 5 year 8.4Mish is what I have been saying and driven by RFA compensation levels.

      And to give a 1st to rid 4.3M off cap hit of Callahan is beyond stupid. Just buy him out. MORON.


      Trading Serg away would be the stupidest move we can do. We'd sell him under lower than what he's actually worth. And we'd get rid of a guy that is likely to get a bridge deal next offseason, hence being cost controlled and with a favorable cap him.

      Why would you want to buy Callahan out when this would mean not get rid of his full cap hit? In the next few years we'll need any single dollar of cap space that we can have.
      The price to move Callahan won't be as high as the guy in the article says.
      May 23 at 6:01
      #13
      BOLT LOVER
      Joined: Dec 2018
      Posts: 1,240
      Likes: 216
      Quoting: Zwui21
      Trading Serg away would be the stupidest move we can do. We'd sell him under lower than what he's actually worth. And we'd get rid of a guy that is likely to get a bridge deal next offseason, hence being cost controlled and with a favorable cap him.

      Why would you want to buy Callahan out when this would mean not get rid of his full cap hit? In the next few years we'll need any single dollar of cap space that we can have.
      The price to move Callahan won't be as high as the guy in the article says.


      I have detailed why Sergachev should be moved many of times here .. it a solid move to trade him and get back assets who will help win CUP. . He wont help. If Tampa doesnt win Cup next year .. whole thing gets blown up .. I would start with Cooper and Stamkos this year but I guess I will have to wait to next year
      May 23 at 8:45
      #14
      Joined: May 2019
      Posts: 6
      Likes: 4
      I've been saying the same thing, it would make sergachev expendable for sure. He can play both sides. Tampa would look for a young cost controlled winger of similar value in return IMO to play with Stamkos.
       
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