Small moves with a focus on making the playoffs in 2019-20. Cup Contender status happens the next year. Although if you can get in anything can happen, as St. Louis has proved.
WASHINGTON:
the trade proposal seen in the link following is similar - my pick is likely a higher one but you have to wait a year for it. https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1185206
In my opinion Burakovsky isn't worth the $3.25M required to retain his rights, so the pick is conditional on him signing. I think it's unlikely any team would trade an unconditional pick when the player becomes a UFA July 1st, nobody wants to be left holding the bag on this one. Fortunately for Washington, McDavid convinces Bura to sign so they can play together again.
CHICAGO:
two summers ago Carolina paid a 2nd round pick for Trevor van Riemsdyk, who was nearly 26 at the time and coming off a 16 point season. Benning just turned 25 this week (he played as a 24-year-old this season, so 1 full year younger than TVR was at the time of the trade) and is coming off a 17 point season. Career stats when traded:
Both played 3RD and generally win those minutes: Benning has a 54.4 GF% while TVR had a 53.4 GF%, although it's worth noting that TVR played on a better team: Chicago was the 5th best team over that span while Edmonton has been 22nd best during Benning's tenure. For perspective, TVR's GF% was +1.03 relative to his team while Benning's is +5.42. Takeaway: while the two players essentially play the same position, Benning is better at it and is younger - therefore has slightly higher upside. Carolina traded the #62 pick for TVR and Chicago's 2nd round pick is #43, thus making up the difference between the players.
TORONTO:
the Chicago 2nd gets flipped to Toronto along with prospect Micheal McLeod for the rights to Kapanen and Brown. From what I can tell Toronto fans expect a late 1st / early 2nd for Kapanen, while Brown is worth a 4th round pick to me. Therefore I'm offering a mid-2nd (#43 overall) and a prospect who was picked in the 2nd round, #40 overall in 2018. McLeod is a speedy center from Mississauga, ON who played for Mississauga and Saginaw of the OHL this year. He joined the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL for a few of their 2nd round playoff games this spring after Saginaw was eliminated from the OHL playoffs after a 7-game 2nd round series with the OHL champions, the Guelph Storm. He played well in the AHL playoffs despite a step up in competition and unfamiliar teammates, with 3 points and a +2 rating in 5 games. He showed VERY well in the last Oilers camp, nearly making the team in his draft +1 year. In short, 40 + 42 should be similar value to the 28 + 100 that I think these two players are worth. Toronto gets cap relief of nearly $5M and full value back in the pick and prospect.
2019 ENTRY DRAFT:
draft picks are based on this list: https://dobberprospects.com/cam-robinsons-2019-nhl-draft-rankings-april-2019/
RESULTS:
despite no Lucic trade, no cap dumps, no buyouts and only 1 UFA signing (backup goalie), I feel like this roster is improved with speed and skill with a minimal negative effect on the pick / prospect pool. McLeod is expendable because McDavid and Draisaitl hold center positions for many years to come, RNH has 2 years left and even Cozens will supersede him on the depth chart. Benning is a valuable part of the roster but theoretically replaceable with a prospect - my idea is to leave the #6 slot open and have a training camp battle between Persson, Lagesson, Jones and Bear to see which one grabs the spot. The other 3 will return to the AHL for the best development opportunity as I don't want any of these young players sitting in the pressbox. I've listed Persson below because he has the highest cap hit of the 4 and I wanted to work with the worst-case scenario.
This team has a pretty good shot at making the playoffs next year.
Only delusional Leafs fans think Connor Brown is worth a 2nd round pick. And Kapanen's numbers were boosted The Matthews Effect, he might be worth a late first / early 2nd by himself. 8th + 38th? Not a chance.
Here's some light reading for our deluded Toronto friends:
85 or 100 is a common ask. I'd offer 100 because the Leafs are in a tight spot and Brown isn't on a great contract.
I'd also argue that 38 + 100 + 110 is roughly equal to 40 + 42... I suggested in the Team Explanation that Kapanen + Brown are worth 28 + 100 and some Leafs fans seem to agree.
Only delusional Leafs fans think Connor Brown is worth a 2nd round pick. And Kapanen's numbers were boosted The Matthews Effect, he might be worth a late first / early 2nd by himself. 8th + 38th? Not a chance.
Here's some light reading for our deluded Toronto friends: