Edited Jun. 13, 2019 at 2:36 p.m.
Quoting: Dylan1995
Brown. Isnt. Worth. 38th. Overall. Pick try a 4th or Matt Benning 1 for 1
35-40th overall picks =
20% chance of becoming full time NHL players (approximate)
35-40th overall picks =
4% chance of becoming a top 6 FWD / top 4 D (approximate)
35-40th overall picks =
1% chance of becoming a top 3 FWD / top 2 D (approximate)
Connor Brown just turned 25 and has played 3 full NHL seasons:
- He plays
13.7 minutes a night (in a defensive role)
- Which includes 2 minutes on the Penalty Kill (no PP time)
- Leaving him with
11.7 minutes to score at Even Strength
- His most common line-mates are Gauthier and Marleau
- He played 1 season with Matthews (20 goals + 36 points)
- Matthews is a brutal play-maker compared to McDavid
Brown has the skill for a top 6 role but he's stuck behind Marner and Nylander (and used as a shut down guy).
He'd be Edmonton's most productive RW and if he played
16-19 minutes on McDavid's line and got PP time ....
His 82 game stats would be in this range:
Goals = 25 - 35
Assists = 25 - 35
Points = 50 - 70
Your 38th overall pick has a 4% chance of eventually being that good .... and a 1% chance of eventually being better.
Do you expect
Ryan McLeod (Edmonton's 40th pick in 2018) to get
128 points in 68 OHL games next year?
Brown had 1.88 points per game that year (in his D+2 season)
McLeod had 0.92 points per game this year (in his D+1 season)
McLeod will have double (more than double) his point production next year to catch up with Browns development.