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WHAT IS THE PLAN SAN JOSE DO YOU EVEN HAVE A PLAN SAN JOSE

Created by: drewjenks
Team: 2019-20 San Jose Sharks
Initial Creation Date: Jun. 17, 2019
Published: Jun. 17, 2019
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
.


RECENT COMPARABLE SIGNINGS WERE USED TO PROJECT 2019 SIGNINGS
- Comparable's used as a reference for pre-signing PPG (points per game) + ATOI

Pavelski (0.85 PPG) = Couture (0.78 PPG) in 2017-18 (Pavelski signs for 5 years due to being 4 years older)
T.Meier (0.85 PPG) = Couture (0.78 PPG) in 2017-18 (Meier's RFA status slightly reduces expected cap-hit)
Nyquist (0.74 PPG) = E.Kane (0.69 PPG) in 2017-18 (Nyquist's contract is slightly higher due to cap-growth)
Thornton (0.7 PPG) = Thornton (0.77 PPG) in 2017-18 (Thornton's healthy season slightly increases cap-hit)
Leblanc (0.68 PPG) = E.Kane (0.69 PPG) in 2017-18 (Leblanc's contract is slightly higher due to cap-growth)
Donskoi (0.46 PPG) = Hertl (0.58 PPG) in 2017-19 (Donskoi's contract is lower due to lower production)
Suomela (0.3 PPG) = Melker (0.32 PPG) in 2016-17 (Suomela's contract includes 2 years of cap-growth)
T.Heed (0.35 PPG) = B.Dillon (0.13 PPG) in 2015-16 (Heed's AAV accounts for less TOI than Dillon's contract year)
J.Ryan (0.16 PPG) = B.Dillon (0.13 PPG) in 2015-16 (Ryan's AAV accounts for less TOI than Dillon's contract year)

- How will SJS reduce their cap by $35,522,000 ?
- Who is going to sign for a discount ?
- Who are they going to let walk ?
- Who is going to be traded ?

.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
8$8,500,000
7$7,500,000
3$2,500,000
3$1,500,000
2$800,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
6$9,000,000
7$7,500,000
1$6,000,000
3$4,500,000
2$800,000
3$2,500,000
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2019
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the SJS
2020
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the OTT
2021
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the SJS
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$83,000,000$112,667,417$660,750$0-$29,667,417

Roster

Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$8,500,000$8,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$8,000,000$8,000,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 8
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$9,000,000$9,000,000
RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$6,000,000$6,000,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$7,500,000$7,500,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$7,500,000$7,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$5,625,000$5,625,000
C
UFA - 3
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$7,000,000$7,000,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 6
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$2,500,000$2,500,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$2,000,000$2,000,000
RW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$1,500,000$1,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$925,000$925,000
C, LW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$7,000,000$7,000,000
LD/RD
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$10,000,000$10,000,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 8
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$5,750,000$5,750,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 5
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$1,635,000$1,635,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$5,280,000$5,280,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 6
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$1,900,000$1,900,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$1,500,000$1,500,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$3,800,000$3,800,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$675,000$675,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$2,500,000$2,500,000
RD
UFA - 1

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Jun. 17, 2019 at 7:59 p.m.
#1
suffering since 2010
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Calm down mr worst case scenario :/
no one is signing for that much
SevenLeg liked this.
Jun. 17, 2019 at 8:01 p.m.
#2
Hop on the Slaftrain
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Labanc is getting Oreilly's money and Meier is getting Draisaitl's money
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Jun. 17, 2019 at 8:01 p.m.
#3
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Quoting: SevenLeg
Labanc is getting Oreilly's money and Meier is getting Draisaitl's money


Wow I just saw Thornton at 6m$
Jun. 17, 2019 at 8:09 p.m.
#4
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Shouldn't count UFAs.....because they aren't yours. But certainly the Sharks are top heavy cap wise, need lots of cheapies to be cap compliant.
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Jun. 17, 2019 at 8:09 p.m.
#5
suffering since 2010
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Move on from braun, dell, and jumbo joe.
Some wilson magic.
Boom their good
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Jun. 17, 2019 at 8:19 p.m.
#6
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Edited Jun. 17, 2019 at 8:28 p.m.
Quoting: SevenLeg
Labanc is getting Oreilly's money and Meier is getting Draisaitl's money


O'Rielly signed in 2015 after getting 55 points in 82 games.
Labanc is signing in 2019 after getting 56 points in 82 games.

The cap has increased by 20% since O'Reilly signed + RFA contracts have increased notably more than 20%.
O'Rielly's equivalent contract with an $83,000,000 cap would be over $9,000,000.

Draisaitl signed in 2017 after getting 77 points in 82 games (0.93 PPG). He got 11.3% of the cap
Meier is signing in 2019 after getting 66 points in 78 games (0.85 PPG). He got 10.2% of the cap (above).

In relative terms ... Meier is getting paid less than Draisaitl for his production level.
Jun. 17, 2019 at 8:25 p.m.
#7
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As a Kings fan, as much as I enjoy ragging on Sharks fans, this is all pretty ridiculous.
Jun. 17, 2019 at 8:27 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: SevenLeg
Wow I just saw Thornton at 6m$


If he doesn't wan't to take a discount ...
Than someone would happily give him $6,000,000+ for a single year (he just got 61 points in 92 games).

He will probably take a discount though ...
But I just gave him his market value and posed the questions "who will take a discount / who will walk as a UFA".
Jun. 17, 2019 at 8:41 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: Emoon
Calm down mr worst case scenario :/
no one is signing for that much


I agree ... most of them will probably take a small hometown discount.

But the above signings are in line with their market / UFA values.

So if any of them want to hold out or test the market ... they'll get something close to this or end up on a short bridge deal / new team.

Regardless ... if you cut every signing projection in half ... they're still $10,000,000+ over the cap ... so this roster will be changing.
Jun. 17, 2019 at 8:45 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
As a Kings fan, as much as I enjoy ragging on Sharks fans, this is all pretty ridiculous.


Some of these guys obviously won't sign in SJS and some of them will get bridge deals.

However ... I would ask that you list the ridiculous contracts and note what they should be.

Thank you.
Jun. 17, 2019 at 9:48 p.m.
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Quoting: drewjenks
Some of these guys obviously won't sign in SJS and some of them will get bridge deals.

However ... I would ask that you list the ridiculous contracts and note what they should be.

Thank you.


Pavelski is 34. No one is going to give him a 6-year deal, in or out of San Jose. My guess is teams offer him 3, and he'll go with the highest offer or the team that's willing to throw in the 4th year. Additionally, he's not going to get $9M at age 34. His production will be on the decline. I can see a bidding war bringing it up to $7M over 4 years or $7½M over 3 years.

Nyquist has cracked 50pts only twice in his career. That's not worth $7½M. His next contract will likely be in the $5-6M range, and it won't necessarily be with San Jose.

Thornton has made it clear that he's playing in San Jose or not at all. He only made $5M last season, down from $8M the season prior. I can see them offering a $3M contract to Thornton, with part of that amount being bonuses for games played. If he doesn't want to take that, he will retire.

$4½M for Donskoi is too much. That's the same that Toffoli got, and Toffoli had a 30g/58p season in there as well as a Stanley Cup. Donskoi has topped out at 14g/37p. I can see him getting $3-3½M.

Labanc will probably sign a bridge deal in the 2-year, $4M range. He's an RFA and not arbitration eligible, so he doesn't have much negotiating power. He will get a bigger payday after he has a chance to crack 20 goals and gains arbitration rights.

I think they'll probably try and lock down Meier long term, but there's no chance he gets Draisaitl money. $6½-7M maybe. Draisaitl just put up 50 goals and 100 points on one of the worst teams in the league. Meier is good, but he's no Draisaitl.
Jun. 17, 2019 at 10:42 p.m.
#12
TheEmphatic1
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Quoting: SevenLeg
Wow I just saw Thornton at 6m$


ROFLFMAO Did we get back into a time machine? You mind as well bring back Patty-Jumbo-Heater then. =P
Jun. 17, 2019 at 11:28 p.m.
#13
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Edited Jun. 17, 2019 at 11:50 p.m.
Quoting: tkecanuck341
Pavelski is 34. No one is going to give him a 6-year deal, in or out of San Jose. My guess is teams offer him 3, and he'll go with the highest offer or the team that's willing to throw in the 4th year. Additionally, he's not going to get $9M at age 34. His production will be on the decline. I can see a bidding war bringing it up to $7M over 4 years or $7½M over 3 years.

Nyquist has cracked 50pts only twice in his career. That's not worth $7½M. His next contract will likely be in the $5-6M range, and it won't necessarily be with San Jose.

Thornton has made it clear that he's playing in San Jose or not at all. He only made $5M last season, down from $8M the season prior. I can see them offering a $3M contract to Thornton, with part of that amount being bonuses for games played. If he doesn't want to take that, he will retire.

$4½M for Donskoi is too much. That's the same that Toffoli got, and Toffoli had a 30g/58p season in there as well as a Stanley Cup. Donskoi has topped out at 14g/37p. I can see him getting $3-3½M.

Labanc will probably sign a bridge deal in the 2-year, $4M range. He's an RFA and not arbitration eligible, so he doesn't have much negotiating power. He will get a bigger payday after he has a chance to crack 20 goals and gains arbitration rights.

I think they'll probably try and lock down Meier long term, but there's no chance he gets Draisaitl money. $6½-7M maybe. Draisaitl just put up 50 goals and 100 points on one of the worst teams in the league. Meier is good, but he's no Draisaitl.


Pavelski
Couture is 30 and they gave him $8,000,000 x 8 (which starts next season).
Doesn't that put SJS in the same predicament? (He's signed until he's 38/39).
Pavelski was at least as good as Couture this year too (probably better).
What will Couture be like at 34 with 4 years left ? (probably worse than Pavelski is today).
So Couture's contract is at least as risky, unless you think Pavelski drops of a cliff next year.

Nyquist
Nyquist had 60 points this year (his above contract is basically identical to E.Kanes after cap-growth).
E.Kane had 54 points last year (a career high) and signed for $7,000,000 x 7 years.
Skinner had 63 points this year (a career high) and signed for 9,000,000 x 8 years.
Eberle had 37 points this year and signed for $5,500,000 x 5 (the middle of your Nyquist projection).
Why is a 60 point 27 year old getting the same as a 37 point 29 year old (and not his comparable's)?

Thornton
Your guess is as valuable as mine (not valuable).
I gave him his UFA market value (on a 1-Year contract) and posed the question: "Who would be willing to take a discount?"
He played a full season this year and got 50+ points so I doubt SJS tries to force a $3,000,000 offer.

Donskoi
I will note Eberle's contract again ($5,500,000 x 5 years).
He had the EXACT same amount of points (37) as Donskoi this year and he's 2 years older.
If Donskoi wants a million LESS than Eberle per year with 2 years less term, he'll get it.
Also, Toffoli signed in 2017 after a 34 point season ($4,600,000 in 2017 = $5,100,000 in 2019)
Again, my example has Donskoi is signing for less than his direct comparable's (in 2019 dollars).

Meier
Why compare Draisaitl's production AFTER he signed to Meier's prduction BEFORE he's signed?
If Draisaitl was signing THIS year (he's going into the 3rd year of his deal) he'd get $11,000,000+ for his 100 point season.
If you compare Draisaitl's PRE-SIGNING season to Meier's current season, you'll notice that they're VERY similar.
And if you add 2 years of cap-growth (11%) you'll notice that Draisaitl's contract in today dollars = $9,500,000 x 8 years.
So Meier's is actually getting paid 11% less for similar production to Draisaitl (in my example).

All of your arguments seem to contain the same 3 logical fallacies:

1. You're not accounting for inflation (a $9,000,000 cap-hit today is equivalent to an $8,000,000 cap hit 2 years ago).
2. You think the RFA / UFA markets haven't changed in 2 years (good players are currently getting a much higher Cap % for whatever reason).
3. You think a comparable's post-signing improvements have implications (post signing stats have ZERO meaning as teams either get lucky or don't).

Here's a 2019 signing list:

$11,500,000 = Erik Karlsson (45 points / 0.85 PPG)
$ 9,000,000 = Jeff Skinner (63 points / 0.76 PPG)
$ 5,850,000 = Nick Schmaltz (25 points / 0.62 PPG)
$ 5,800,000 = Esa Lindell (32 points / 0.39 PPG)
$ 5,500,000 = Jordan Eberle (37 points / 0.47 PPG)
$ 5,250,000 = Jacob Silfverberg (43 points / 0.58 PPG)

Do these all seem unreasonably high? They are. Welcome to 2019.
Jun. 17, 2019 at 11:54 p.m.
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Quoting: TheEmphatic1
ROFLFMAO Did we get back into a time machine? You mind as well bring back Patty-Jumbo-Heater then. =P


Did you know he made $5,000,000 this year ... and got 51 points in 73 games (15 more than last year)?

But maybe if you ask him ... he'll play for a sandwich next year ???

"ROFLFMAO"
Jun. 18, 2019 at 12:00 a.m.
#15
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Quoting: drewjenks
Pavelski
Couture is 30 and they gave him $8,000,000 x 8 (which starts next season).
Doesn't that put SJS in the same predicament? (He's signed until he's 38/39).
Pavelski was at least as good as Couture this year too (probably better).
What will Couture be like at 34 with 4 years left ? (probably worse than Pavelski is today).
So Couture's contract is at least as risky, unless you think Pavelski drops of a cliff next year.

Nyquist
Nyquist had 60 points this year (his above contract is basically identical to E.Kanes after cap-growth).
E.Kane had 54 points last year (a career high) and signed for $7,000,000 x 7 years.
Skinner had 63 points this year (a career high) and signed for 9,000,000 x 8 years.
Eberle had 37 points this year and signed for $5,500,000 x 5 (the middle of your Nyquist projection).
Why is a 60 point 27 year old getting the same as a 37 point 29 year old (and not his comparable's)?

Thornton
Your guess is as valuable as mine (not valuable).
I gave him his UFA market value (on a 1-Year contract) and posed the question: "Who would be willing to take a discount?"
He played a full season this year and got 50+ points so I doubt SJS tries to force a $3,000,000 offer.

Donskoi
I will note Eberle's contract again ($5,500,000 x 5 years).
He had the EXACT same amount of points (37) as Donskoi this year and he's 2 years older.
If Donskoi wants a million LESS than Eberle per year with 2 years less term, he'll get it.
Also, Toffoli signed in 2017 after a 34 point season ($4,600,000 in 2017 = $5,100,000 in 2019)

Meier
LOL you're comparing Draisaitl's production AFTER he signed to Meier's prduction BEFORE he's signed.
If Draisaitl was signing this year (he's going into the 3rd year of his deal) he'd get $11,000,000+ for his 100 point season.
If you compare Draisaitl's PRE-SIGNING season to Meier's current season, you'll notice that they're VERY similar.
And if you add 2 years of cap-growth (11%) you'll notice that Draisaitl's contract in today dollars = $9,500,000 x 8 years.
So Meier's is actually getting paid 11% less for similar production to Draisaitl (in my example).

All of your arguments seem to contain the same 3 logical fallacies:

1. You're not accounting for inflation (a $9,000,000 cap-hit today is equivalent to an $8,000,000 cap hit 2 years ago).
2. You think the RFA and UFA markets haven't changed in 2 years (good players are currently getting a much higher Cap %).
3. You think a comparable's post-signing improvement has significance in current negotiations (post signing stats have ZERO meaning).


You can't compare the contracts of a 30 year old player (signed when he was 29) to a player that turns 35 in a couple weeks. A 8-year contract for Couture ends when he's 38. A 4-year contract for Pavelski ends when he's 38. Couture's contract is front-loaded, and he gets $8M, 7M, 7M, 6M over the last 4 years of his contract, averaging $7M per season. I think that's exactly what Pavelski would get over his 4-year contract.

Skinner had 63 points, but he also had 40 goals. He has had 7x 20 goal seasons and 4x 30 goal seasons in his career. Nyquist isn't even close to a comparable to Skinner as he has never cracked 30 goals and has only made 20 goals 3 times. Not to mention that everyone is lambasting Skinner's deal as a terrible signing that will come back to bite them in the later years, despite his consistent production so far over his entire career.

Same goes with Eberle. He has a career high 76 points and multiple 60+ point seasons. Donskoi has never cracked 40 points. They are not comparable players.

I listed Draisaitl's point totals to show the caliber player that he is. Draisaitl had a 77p season and a 51p season under his belt when he signed his contract. Meier has had one quality season in the league so far, topping out at 66 points. Meier is a quality player. Draisaitl is a superstar. They are not comparable players.

Your fallacy is that you think the only factor that determines a player's contract value is the point totals from their most recent season, and that the AAVs don't take into account a player's age and production consistency over the past several years.
Jun. 18, 2019 at 12:03 a.m.
#16
TheEmphatic1
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Quoting: drewjenks
Did you know he made $5,000,000 this year ... and got 51 points in 73 games (15 more than last year)?

But maybe if you ask him ... he'll play for a sandwich next year ???

"ROFLFMAO"


Yes, I'm very aware what he made. Before the $5 mill, it was $8 mill. What I think is Doug Wilson's mentality with Joe Thornton now is "I will pay you what I want to pay you and you can sign or walk." With all due respect to Joe and I have love for Joe, but it's a business. The team should be younger and faster. That's where the future should be. Also, Joe's style of hockey slows down the pace and he picks his passes/shots. Don't think the Sharks play that tempo of hockey much anymore.
Jun. 18, 2019 at 12:06 a.m.
#17
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
You can't compare the contracts of a 30 year old player (signed when he was 29) to a player that turns 35 in a couple weeks. A 8-year contract for Couture ends when he's 38. A 4-year contract for Pavelski ends when he's 38. Couture's contract is front-loaded, and he gets $8M, 7M, 7M, 6M over the last 4 years of his contract, averaging $7M per season. I think that's exactly what Pavelski would get over his 4-year contract.

Skinner had 63 points, but he also had 40 goals. He has had 7x 20 goal seasons and 4x 30 goal seasons in his career. Nyquist isn't even close to a comparable to Skinner as he has never cracked 30 goals and has only made 20 goals 3 times. Not to mention that everyone is lambasting Skinner's deal as a terrible signing that will come back to bite them in the later years, despite his consistent production so far over his entire career.

Same goes with Eberle. He has a career high 76 points and multiple 60+ point seasons. Donskoi has never cracked 40 points. They are not comparable players.

I listed Draisaitl's point totals to show the caliber player that he is. Draisaitl had a 77p season and a 51p season under his belt when he signed his contract. Meier has had one quality season in the league so far, topping out at 66 points. Meier is a quality player. Draisaitl is a superstar. They are not comparable players.

Your fallacy is that you think the only factor that determines a player's contract value is the point totals from their most recent season, and that the AAVs don't take into account a player's age and production consistency over the past several years.


But will Couture be better than he is now at 34 ???

Probably not ... but Pavelski is better than Couture right now ... at 34.
Jun. 18, 2019 at 12:17 a.m.
#18
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Quoting: drewjenks
But will Couture be better than he is now at 34 ???

Probably not ... but Pavelski is better than Couture right now ... at 34.


Couture just put up career high numbers, including an impressive 14g in 3 rounds of the playoffs. There's no reason why he couldn't continue to improve that trend over the next few seasons, but that is irrelevant. It doesn't change the fact that no one is going to give a player in his late 30s a 6 year contract at $9M AAV. You're not paying for Pavelski at age 34, you're paying for him at ages 35+. If Pavelski was 4 years younger, he would probably get an 8-year $9M AAV contract. But he's not, so he'll get 4 years @ $7M or 3 years @ 7.5M.
 
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