Forums/NHL Signings

Philadelphia Flyers signed Kevin Hayes (7 Years / $7,142,857 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Jun 19 at 10:19
#76
rangersandislesfan
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 26,885
Likes: 2,908
So, what's next for Fletcher? Overpaying Gardiner?
Reeds77 liked this.
Jun 19 at 10:20
#77
Jetsfan
Joined: Sep 2017
Posts: 2,430
Likes: 499
Quoting: krakowitz
not only is this terrible on paper, it also stalls the development of Nolan Patrick and Morgan Frost (unless they move to wing). and they just drafted O’Brian, fwiw. no room for those guys to grow. what a bad move


It seems like Philly wants to win now...Patrick and Frost playing as the 2C and 3C would limit the flyers.
Jun 19 at 10:33
#78
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 248
Likes: 85
Edited Jun 19 at 10:43
Quoting: ON3M4N
Ready for this one....

Over the last 3 seasons:

Kevin Hayes - 223GP / 148Pts / 0.66 PGP
Dustin Brown - 233GP / 148Pts / 0.64 PGP

^Dustin Brown at $5.8 is considered a bad contract...wonder what that makes this Hayes deal?


I appreciate your choosing Brown as a comp because both players are two-way forwards whose contributions exceed raw point totals. Arguably center is a bit more valuable, but let's shelve that for a more fundamental contrast:

Dustin Brown has 3 years left on his deal and he will turn 35 in November. He will be 37 during the last season of the deal.
Hayes recently turned 27 years old in May. He will be 33 during the last season of his new deal.
When Dustin Brown signed his deal before the 14-15 season, it was 8.5% of the salary cap.
Depending upon whether the cap is set to $82 or $83 million for 19-20, Hayes' deal is expected to be between 8.6-8.71% of the salary cap.

In sum, Hayes' deal is by 1-2 tenths of a percent more expensive than Brown's, but does not extend well into what should probably be retirement years. Brown's deal is significantly worse because of the age/term factor. This isn't to say UFA isn't expensive; it absolutely is. 8.6-8.7% of the cap is nothing to sneeze at. The term could be a year shorter and be more attractive, but if the salary is front loaded, then the contract is probably going to be quite marketable to a cap floor team that many years down the line. We'll get those details later.

(Edit) P.S. In the 3 seasons leading up to that deal, Brown had 207GP / 110Pts / 0.53 PPG
Jun 19 at 10:35
#79
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 446
Likes: 240
Oh no baby what is you doin?
Reeds77 liked this.
Jun 19 at 10:35
#80
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 74
Likes: 14
7.15 Million for a guy that has topped out at 25 goals and 55 points, what in the hell???
rangersandislesfan liked this.
Jun 19 at 10:48
#81
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 328
Likes: 89
Quoting: Random2152
And now on everyone's favourite program, How Does This Affect the Leafs?!

Nylander not looking to bad right now is it?

Next time on How Does This Affect the Leafs?!
Grumpy business man takes to the podium*
"We have a trade to Announce..."


Well, to be fair, both Hayes and Nylander signings look horrendous. But yes, it is comforting to know that Dubass is not the only moron in town.
Jun 19 at 10:51
#82
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,256
Likes: 1,791
Quoting: vmach
Well, to be fair, both Hayes and Nylander signings look horrendous. But yes, it is comforting to know that Dubass is not the only moron in town.


Lol. one of those things are blatantly false. The other is that Hayes signing looks Horrendous
drewjenks liked this.
Jun 19 at 11:09
#83
Go Jets Go!!
Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 83
Likes: 74
What a bad contract. So sooooo happy the Jets stayed away from this 1000000%!!!!
Jun 19 at 11:22
#84
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 328
Likes: 89
As a CHI fan, I'd like to thank Fletcher for taking Hayes before Bowman could start talking to him. I don't want him even at $5M hit.
Jun 19 at 12:25
#85
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 207
Likes: 90
Expected any team to overpay Hayes since he's an allround center who'll enter his prime and just finished a career season. Thought he could get 6.75 but the Flyers even overpaid that.

William Karlsson probably started his party. Vegas is doomed, especially since the rumours that the cap will be below 82m
Jun 19 at 1:14
#86
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 566
Likes: 92
Quoting: Ragsandbluesfan
He had 55 last season


My bad. You're right. But I think the point still stands.
Jun 19 at 1:56
#87
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 139
Likes: 16
More than 100 peoples says it's a bad contract.....I wonder what was Fletcher thinking
Jun 19 at 1:57
#88
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 112
Likes: 77
Hockey pundits spend more time talking about giving higher end and younger talent too much money as if that's what causes cap problems. It's turning a 3 picks,, Radko Gudas and about $16M in cap space into Hayes, Niskanen and Braun that kills a teams cap.

Think about that, the combination of those 3 players essentially cost about $18M in cap space (when you factor in the $1M retained on Gudas). There will be tonnes of talk about how Toronto or Tampa might have trouble filling out a good line up when they each inevitably have 45+% of their payroll dolled out to their core 4-6 players, but those deals aren't the ones that kill you, it's garbage like this. In fact, if the Leafs didn't have to contend with Zaitsev or Marleau, or Tampa didn't have Callahan and Girardi on the books, both teams could comfortably sign their RFAs, and still have room to upgrade while having all of their best players under contract for a few years as the cap rises.
kaljakori liked this.
Jun 19 at 2:15
#89
Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 708
Likes: 178
Quoting: Danny12357
Hockey pundits spend more time talking about giving higher end and younger talent too much money as if that's what causes cap problems. It's turning a 3 picks,, Radko Gudas and about $16M in cap space into Hayes, Niskanen and Braun that kills a teams cap.

Think about that, the combination of those 3 players essentially cost about $18M in cap space (when you factor in the $1M retained on Gudas). There will be tonnes of talk about how Toronto or Tampa might have trouble filling out a good line up when they each inevitably have 45+% of their payroll dolled out to their core 4-6 players, but those deals aren't the ones that kill you, it's garbage like this. In fact, if the Leafs didn't have to contend with Zaitsev or Marleau, or Tampa didn't have Callahan and Girardi on the books, both teams could comfortably sign their RFAs, and still have room to upgrade while having all of their best players under contract for a few years as the cap rises.


Yes on many of your points. Except Tampa is a bad example. LA is a great example.

Girardi isnt on Tampa's books and Callahan's contract is up when Tampa have to resign Sergachev, Vasilevskiy, Cirelli and Joeseph.

Tampa's problem isnt overpaying aging vets its handing out NTCs to role players and middle 6 guys.
Jun 19 at 2:57
#90
NateElder12
Joined: Apr 2016
Posts: 5,736
Likes: 799
Quoting: krakowitz
not only is this terrible on paper, it also stalls the development of Nolan Patrick and Morgan Frost (unless they move to wing). and they just drafted O’Brian, fwiw. no room for those guys to grow. what a bad move


O'Brien isn't even on the NHL radar. And I don't see how this move stunts the growth of any of those players. There are still top-9 spots for both of them.
phillyjabroni liked this.
Jun 19 at 4:57
#91
I'm the Captain now
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,184
Likes: 710
Quoting: NateElder12
O'Brien isn't even on the NHL radar. And I don't see how this move stunts the growth of any of those players. There are still top-9 spots for both of them.


I dont trust anyone without a pfp and a blue checkmark so gtfoh
NateElder12 liked this.
Jun 19 at 7:05
#92
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,516
Likes: 477
Quoting: Brian2016
No "NMC" at least for PHI. This could easily end in a buyout situation.


You sure about that Bri Guy?
Jun 19 at 7:24
#93
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 1,735
Likes: 716
Quoting: drewjenks
You sure about that Bri Guy?


I see that there's now a NTC posted. I'm still gonna predict that this deal ends in a buyout.
Jun 19 at 7:52
#94
Misanthropic Thunder
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 82
Likes: 21
So they dump him in AZ in a few years, BFD.
Jun 19 at 7:55
#95
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 233
Likes: 62
Quoting: Brian2016
I see that there's now a NTC posted. I'm still gonna predict that this deal ends in a buyout.


His entire contract is a NTC.
Jun 19 at 8:24
#96
Go for the Repeat
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 17
Likes: 8
Just as I thought it couldn't get worse. OH GOD THE NTC.
stoker liked this.
Jun 19 at 9:21
#97
Joined: Jun 2019
Posts: 20
Likes: 8
Has the entire league lost its mind?!?!
Jun 19 at 10:39
#98
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,516
Likes: 477
Quoting: rangersandislesfan
So, what's next for Fletcher? Overpaying Gardiner?


Sounds reasonable for him ... my guess for Fletcher this summer is:

$9,500,000 x 7 = Joe Pavelski
$8,500,000 x 7 = Mats Zuccarello
$7,150,000 x 7 = Kevin Hayes
$5,500,000 x 5 = Derek Brassard
$3,500,000 x 4 = Dion Phaneuf
$3,500,000 x 4 = Ben Lovejoy

Then he'll move Couturier, Provorov, Sanheim and Konecny for cap-space.
Jun 19 at 11:00
#99
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,516
Likes: 477
Quoting: vmach
Well, to be fair, both Hayes and Nylander signings look horrendous. But yes, it is comforting to know that Dubass is not the only moron in town.


Nylander's signing looks great ATM ... So I'm not sure what your talking about?

He looked very out of shape at first:

3 points in his first 21 games = Horrendous (on pace for 12 points over 82 games).

But then he caught up with everyone:

24 points in his last 33 games = Pretty Good (on pace for 60 points over 82 games).

And he did that while playing:

- Around 15 minutes a night (not on the 1st power-play)
- On the 3rd line with Brown and Marleau (not Matthews)
- With 5.4% shooting on the year (50% of his career average)

Max Domi had the exact same type of season (6% shooting) before he was traded.
He bounced back real quick ... and so will Nylander.
Jun 20 at 1:31
#100
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,516
Likes: 477
Quoting: WellIDK
Expected any team to overpay Hayes since he's an allround center who'll enter his prime and just finished a career season. Thought he could get 6.75 but the Flyers even overpaid that.

William Karlsson probably started his party. Vegas is doomed, especially since the rumours that the cap will be below 82m


What did William Karlsson do?

He scored 43 goals and then signed a 1-Year $5,250,000 contract.
 
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