Hold up since when Ceci and Condon has had actual trade value

Ceci is being shopped as we speak, and I modelled the trade after the Maata Kahun + pick swap. Condon is traded because he is clearly an upgrade from Sparks.

Pretty sure Gaborik and MacArthur are unofficially retired due to injuries and your team doesn't even meet the salary floor.

I don't think Ceci nets you both the pick and Puljujarvi, perhaps just Puljujarvi himself. Ceci wouldn't be as bad if we wasn't making $4.3M as a #5D. Condon with $ retained maybe gets Sparks back but it sure doesn't get a third.

You gotta note that Määttä is much better than Ceci, and the value difference between Puljujärvi and Kahun is not that big.

Condon is an AHL goalie. He played 3 games last season, NHL and AHL combined. There's no value difference at all, or if there is, it's Sparks who's ahead on that comparison.

Oilers don’t need Ceci. They already got their 4 million dollar pylon in Kris Russell.

Offensively over their careers they've been similar while one plays on a dynasty and the other plays on the Sens (0.27 PPG vs 0.30 PPG). Defensively, they're both not great while one plays 18 minutes a night on a dynasty and the other plays 23 minutes on one of the worst defensive teams (even when they were making ECF runs). Maatta for his career has started mostly in the offensive zone while Ceci has played a lot in the defensive zone. One is a RHD, the most coveted position it seems, while the other is a LHD, one of the least coveted positions.

Maatta is nowhere close to "much better than Ceci". That's probably the closest comparable of a trade you can find.

Add onto that the fact that Puljujarvi only has value because of his draft position, and that he's actually been really bad and has shown less than Yakupov did (he was then traded for a 4th) and it's pretty much right on par with the value.

Määttä is decent all around D, although a bit slow and has suffered from injuries. Ceci can't defend at all, he's a royal joke when it comes defending and honestly I think he'd suite better as a forward than a D. The only thing Ceci does better than Määttä is moving the puck. These statistics tells as much as well.

Also Määttä is locked up on a nice contract, Ceci is RFA who tend to overvalue himself quite a lot. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't he have a demand of $6M last year, while OTT was willing to give him $3M, and after the arbitration they settled in on a $4,3M contract.

By this rationale, Määttä is clearly better player of the two. And more valuable as well.

Puljujärvi hasn't had a single full season played in the NHL. I'd give him a chance to prove himself with not being constantly moved from 2nd line to 4th, then AHL, and then back to 3rd line again and again.
Seriously, it's no wonder he has requested a trade.

Comparing him to Yakupov is a bit early. Also Yakupov was moved at 23yo. For a 3rd rounder actually.

These stats only track partial seasons, so they're not very accurate. But breaking them down and comparing relative is probably fine... In 2018-2019's 15 or so games they tracked, Ceci maintained possession on entries nearly as much as Maatta, but maintained possession on exits much more. Their entry defense was relatively similar. However, Maatta dominated in only one area: shot contributions. In 2017-2018, in Ceci's 25 games and Maatta's 54 that were tracked, they had comparable entries, Ceci had better exit percentages and did a good job of limiting entries from the opposing team per 60, but Maatta did have better numbers outside of that. In 2016-2017, Ceci was better across the board apart from shot contribution. Shocking that a guy relied upon to only play the defensive zone had lesser offensive numbers than a guy starting more in the offensive zone (and on a much better team). So no, these numbers further establish that these are both guys who are inconsistent from year to year and that their defensive abilities are a shot in the dark. Maatta is locked up on a contract much like Ceci's will be; it's arbitration so of course he went high and the Sens went low. The 3rd party arbitrator settled at $4.3M while Maatta makes $4.1 for the next three years. I.e. Comparable. By this rationale, Maatta is no better than Ceci and his trade is market value for a player of Ceci's caliber. Don't get me wrong, Ceci is not very good... but market price is market price.

I do agree that Puljujarvi deserves a chance and that he's probably better than what he's shown, but let's pump the brakes on his value here. He's shown nothing except being drafted high. He's not much better than Kahun is, although he is younger. Direct comparisons to Yakupov are early, but at least Yak was putting up 30 point seasons vs Puljujarvi not being able to crack the weakest forward group in the league.

I strongly agree with your analysis. I do think that market value on Ceci is high primarily based on who is available for trade or via trade agency. Ceci is comparable to Maatta, and I think arguing that one is better than the other is splitting hairs at this point.

For Puljujarvi, you hit it spot on. All he has going for him is that he was drafted high, and he has not proven himself at the NHL level yet. Couple that with the statements he made about wanting out of Edmonton, if he is to go anywhere, I would imagine any GM worth his salt willing to trade for him would put him on a bridge deal.