We can reasonably affirm that with a PP just a bit more effective (like getting to the 25th rank at around 17% instead of 30th), the Habs would have made the playoffs (but maybe not draft Caufield!). A good PP player is the primary need of MTL. It could come from an offensive player or a defensive player. But, with Benn shopping a bigger contract this summer (somewhere between 3-3.5 AAV for 3 years IMO), we can find this PP help with a LD.
As a first step, I analysed the cap situation for 2019-2020 (https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/239622&post_id=929214). With Alzner, Wiese and Peka buried (not shown in the first analysis), everyone from the roster resigned at their value and Poehling in Laval due to 23 roster limit (for now), the Habs would have a cap space of 7.8m. The needs could be filled by UFA but, concerning LD, there’s only Gardner, Gunnarsson, Nemeth and Chariot (and Benn) as noticeable options and only Gardner and maybe Chariot could help a PP (and same thing goes for RD : there’s few options). Therefore, they will be overpaid (just like Alzner). We would have to give almost all our cap space to Gardner, a PP specialist with defensive problems. It’s why acquiring someone by trading would be a better option.
So here’s my analysis of potential trade options for the Habs considering their primary need (PP). The trading partner would want his needs filled too, it’s why I analyse what, on paper, is their needs and how can the Habs fill them. I’m not following the other teams like I’m following the Habs so I might do errors evaluating the other teams need.
While analyzing the Habs cap space was the easy part, offering a fair proposal is the hard part. To simplify the trade, there’s only 1 player the Habs obtain in each trade. More complex trade bad contracts would have taken too much time.
Feel free to contribute!
Top 4 =
Gostisbehere (PHI) 4.5 / 4 years
what PHI needs = top 6 wingers
what MTL would offer = Drouin, Tatar, Shaw or less likely Byron, Armia, Lehko. If PHI wants Drouin 1 for 1 as some people say, I’d look for an other LD because it’s overpaying due to Drouin high potential of offensive production. Also, I don’t see him playing with Weber because Weber can really shine if he’s playing with a speedster good defensively like Mete to compensate his lack of speed (just like when Markov played with Subban). Ghost has a specific role (offensive, PP) but is not a complete D. Therefore, if it’s a Drouin-Ghost proposal, PHI would have to add a 2nd. We see a lot of Shaw + Juulsen + 2nd for Ghost rumors : while the value is about right, PHI has already a young RD pushing (Myers). It’s why they might look for something else like an established top 6 wingers like Drouin because Juulsen is not a fully interesting sweetener to them. That being said, it could be Tatar/Shaw + a younger D from that is not NHL-ready unlike Juulsen (like Fleury or even Brook) + 2nd and maybe a 4th. I’m not saying PHI will accept, but it’s what MTL would offer at max IMO.
Brodin (MIN) 4.2 / 2 years
what MIN needs : wingers (RW>LW) and preferably young. With Zucker being apparently shopped, the right wing looks empty at MIN. Their offensive is aging (average is 30.8 years old!) just like the rest of their team (27.8 at D and Dubnyk at 33).
what MTL would offer : Lehko, Armia and Hudon mainly, Byron, Shaw, Tatar and Drouin too. It would be the kind of trade where MTL should ship 3 players because MIN only have 15 roster signed in their roster. I’ve seen few proposal for Brodin (I saw Byron + 2nd few days ago) so it’s harder for me to evaluate him clearly. But it could be something like Lehko/Armia + Juulsen/Fleury + Hudon + pick (later pick if it’s Armia + Juulsen (4th ), earlier if it’s Lehko + Fleury (2nd )). It could also be a player like Byron but with only a 2nd added, that seem not enough. Even if Hudon have low value, MIN would have a spot for him in their roster so he could be added with a 4th.
Leddy 28 (NYI) : 5.5m AAV / 3 years remaining
what NYI needs = top 6 winger (LW>RW)
what MTL would offer = Tatar or Shaw + Reilly (to fill their minor need of 7th D) + 3rd could be a simple and relatively fair trade proposal. Reilly could be switch for Juulsen and a later pick. I read that NYI fan would offer Leddy for a 1st, others for Shaw and a 2nd but I think Tatar on the left is what they’d prefer.
Brodie 28 (CAL) : 4.65 / 1 year
what CAL needs = RW and to free up some cap space (sitting at 68.5m without Tkachuk (7.5-8) Bennett (2.5-3) and a roster of 19 players)
what MTL would offer = Shaw being likely too expensive, Lehkonen (around 2.4) or Armia (around 2.8) could fit. If Neal is in the mix, it would be harder to elaborate a fair trade. I think Armia + 2nd could be a reasonable MTL offer due to Brodie 1 year contract before UFA.
Murray (CLB) UFA (projected 4.25m AAV for 3 years by EW Contract Projections: 2019)
what CLB needs = LW (depending if they resign Duchene, Panarin or Dzingel)
what MTL would offer = Drouin or less likely Tatar. Drouin have a controlled contract for 4 more years (unlike Tatar with 2 years) and CLB only have 1 player (Atkinson) signed to +3 years. Ghost and Murray might have a similar value, but with the injuries, CLB would have to add more because there’s a part of risk. So Murray + 2nd and 4th is what I would considerer for Drouin.
Nurse (EDM) 3.2 / 1 year
what EMD needs = wingers
what MTL would offer = Drouin, but Drouin alone it’s not enough. I saw an interesting proposal where Nylander and Nurse were swap. While in a trade Ghost-Drouin PHI would have to add something, if there’s a trade Nurse-Drouin, MTL would have to add more than PHI would have in a trade Ghost-Drouin. Habs could add Lehko or Armia + a 2nd and Oilers would at least consider. But Oilers have to cap space to pay him next year 6.5-7m (Habs too) and they’ll probably look for a stable defense.
low chance
Lindholm 24 (ANA) : 5.2 / 3 years
what ANA needs = mainly D with only 5 signed in the roster and 4 in the non-roster. So why would they trade him? Even if they were in rebuild mode, they are so low in personal that they would have to make a lot of moves to full their D. Habs may give them Reilly he has no value. If they see something in Kulak (and his interesting contract for what he gave us last year) it can be a start to a proposal. But I think the needs of those two teams simply don’t match.
low chance
Some upgrade as a direct replacement to Benn that could be moved =
Martinez (LAK) 4 / 2 years
what LAK needs = youth (maybe wingers and LD) and picks
what MTL would offer = Hudon, Reilly, Lehko from roster, prospects and/or picks. I think LAK could wait an extra year before trading Martinez : they would trade him at deadline to a cup contender for probably a 1st (if you compare to what was Lovejoy and McQuaid value at deadline). Therefore, there’s a lot of options but the value will have to be add at least equivalent to a 1st.
low chance
Dillon (SJ) 3.2 / 1 year
what SJ needs = free up some cap space while being contender in the short term. If you look at their defense, their left side without Dillon would be very weak. If they don’t trade the rights of Meier or Labanc for a D, I don’t see SJ moving Dillon. Their cap situation is really interesting (take a look at SJ Armchair-GMs) : they’ll surely lose a winger, either it’s Meier, Labanc, Pavelsky or Nyquist. They might need depth at wings, but it has to be at a low cost. Lehko with a value around 2.4m wouldn’t fit, only Hudon could be in a mix if there’s no big moves implicating big money moves.
low chance
Noticeable top 6 as a direct replacement to Benn that could be moved =
Holden (VGK) McNabb (VGK) Merrill (VGK) Hagg (PHI) Morrow (WIN) Forbort (LAK) Hickey (NYI) Pouliot (VAN) Connauton (ARI). While some like McNabb could cost more (like a 2nd) due to his good contract (2.5m AAV / 3 years) for his utility, some others like Holden could cost next to nothing (like a 5th). Bergevin could even go with less established players like he did last year with Rilley (for a 5th) or Kulak (for 2 bust).
If no trade =
Instead of overpaying a guy like Chiarot, Nemeth or Gunnarsson, my guess is that Bergevin will look at lost cost UFA if no trade could be made. Just like he signed Morrow 2 years ago on 1st July, he could sign someone similar with a potential in PP. And there’s a guy like that this year : Brad Hunt.
So the minimum Bergevin will do is : get a late pick for Hudon + Reilly, sign Brad Hunt 1m / 1 year. And that’s my conclusion.
Again, feel free to comment and contribute to propose a fair trade!
Vote for best trade option at LD : https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/240666
That's not contributing. What would you give? Do you think Habs fan are underestimating him? Is he worth Drouin 1-1? I think not it's why I'd offer other wingers.
That's not contributing. What would you give? Do you think Habs fan are underestimating him? Is he worth Drouin 1-1? I think not it's why I'd offer other wingers.
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