If we're giving Marner 4 years, it had better be at a stupid discounted rate, like 4@8 or less

Dubas should be fired if he agrees to a 4 year term at that money.

I would rather see Marner sit and sheeted then give in to that deal.

someone will offer him 10.4 or whatever it is, it's only 2 1st round picks. A team like Colorado could easily do that.
It's pointless really. They have to pay him at the very least 10.5, no matter what the term is.

yes, someone could offer 10.4 for 4 years and the compensation would be two x 1st, plus a 2nd and 3rd.

However, do you really think Marner is going to sign that.........and do you really think that another GM is going to make that offer knowing it will be matched.

My outrage would be a 4 year term. I want at least 6 years on any Marner contract and if he wants over 10.5 I want 8. If not he can sit....

Curious what Toronto would do if Marner signed an offer sheet for 4 years @ $10.5 million. They could match, but then they'd have to compete with the open market in 2023. They could let him go, but then they'd only get two 1st round picks instead of four.

Honestly, this would be the worst case scenario for the Leafs.

I don't think Marner has any problem signing that. I don't know why you think he would. The only reason he wouldn't is he wants 11 million for 4 years. But either way if that's his fastest way to FA and he's sick of dealing with boy wonder big mouth Dubas he'll sign it. And yes, I do think another GM would offer it. Why wouldn't they. They don't care if you will match it or not. They know you only have 7 days to do so and you'll be scrambling after.

Well......."boy wonder bigmouth" I guess you are not a Dubas fan and perhaps think the guy who drafted him (mark hunter) would have been a better choice.

Yes, if Marner is in fact only interested in the fastest way to a FA contract he would sign that. I guess we disagree on what he is after and I guess we will see in the next week or two whether another GM makes that offer.

I don't see it happening.

I disagree. I don’t think any GM makes an offersheet they know Toronto will match. The offfersheet will need to start with a 12 I think. 11.5m minimum.

Dubas can only blame himself and his arrogant attitude for his situation. He has this very common attitude of younger people in positions of power that they are superior to others. His, you all have to take less attitude was never going to fly and it frankly didn't. That's the last thing anyone wants to hear while other people are raking in cash off your back. Nylander walked all over him, Then Matthews did, now Marner will because of it. His big mouth and attitude are the prime reason he should never have been given a position of authority. A much more level headed GM he wouldn't have ever said such dumb comments publicly could have probably done this a lot smoother and saved the team a little money. Which is why I call him boy wonder.

As for hitting FA, I think the family is pretty clear they aren't happy with Toronto. So I think if he wants control to do what he wants, FA is the fastest and best option.

And this is where you and rationality parted ways...

most offer sheets are matched, so I think it's more of a put the other guy in a hard position thing. You have to think the second you offer it, someone is going to match it, as that's what happens in 90% of cases. I think it's a matter of keeping it honest. If Toronto is hell bent on offering low money on what ever term, taking it to 10.4 keeps them honest, yes Toronto will match, but only because they are forced to. Otherwise they would have only low balled him. The offer sheet is a way to force them into it. If they don't want to give it up, they will take them.

The threshold for a team staying under (4) 1st round picks is $10.566M for 5 years or less. Anything more requires (4) 1st round picks and I don't see any team giving up (4) 1st round picks. Make no mistake, offer sheets don't happen but players do indeed weaponize this as a strategy as Marner is currently doing. GMs do talk to one another, and surely these conversations are not public. If say Colorado was to offer sheet Marner, prior, they would be picking up the phone and talking to the Leafs saying "here's the situation xxxxxx, let's do a trade".

Low money? 10m x 8 years is better than Rantanen and Aho are being offered. If leafs were trying to low ball him I could certainly see a team trying to keep things honest.

I don’t think any gm wants to risk retaliation for no reason. GM’s and owners have a common interest in keeping salaries low. Offering marner 10.5m x 4-5 years will blow the market up with all these young stars. One bad contract could easily start a trend.

I don't think GMs are worried about "retaliation" as much as some people think. It's not like Toronto hasn't offer sheeted people before. And while you look at it and think, it's not low money, it is when you can offer him slightly more without costing you 4 1sts. So if the offer is less, he clearly signs it because it's free money to him. He knows Toronto will have to match. It depends how close they are to the cap if they can match etc... I just don't see them offering under the 4 1st round pick amount for that reason. It just encourages other people. If another team is going to offer sheet them, they have to make them pay the 4 1st to do it.

As far as starting a trend. It was one thing when McDavid did it. It was another when Dri and Nylander did it. So that trend is already there. I honestly think the contract Nylander signed was the end of that. It was the truly one bad contract.

I like the nylander contract. What marner is doing is no where near any of those other contract negotiations. Hell mcdavid declines his first contract offer and gave money back.

These negotiations will be drawn out and boring I’m sure. Just don’t see anyone willing to Paulo four firsts to overpay marner. If we were dead set on oferring him 8m, it would make sense.

I'm not saying anyone will, but it is possible. I wouldn't because he's a 20 goal scorer. But a team like CBJ could. They have the space, he replaces panarin and off they go again. So it is possible.
That's why I think the number is 10.5. Because if all it costs CBJ is 2 1st, wouldn't you do it? You really think 2 late round 1st returns you a marner, probably not right? So go for it. They are risk takers. Safe is Death is their motto.

So whatever the length is, it's going to be at least 10.5 I would think. That's the safe number.

I would be thrilled if CBJ sends in a sheet on marner... no bob no panarin no Duchene or dzingel (the reason they even made the playoffs) those picks will be nice...

I think you would get 2 late round 1sts, and that wouldn't be worth it if it's under 10.4. Even if they were mid round picks.

Nope, I’m talking four 1sts, that’s the only sheet I see as possible.

Who offer sheets a kid looking for 11.5m @ 10.4?

Actually I just read today the amount this year is 10.6 and I agree its very low odds anyone offer sheets the 4 1st. But the point was originally they have to at least hit that 10.6 mark.
If you are looking for 11 million, someone offers you 10 like above, of course someone will offer the 10.6 and he'll sign it. Toronto will be forced to match it. So the offer to him. No matter what the length 4 years, 8 years what ever it is, won't be less than 10.6.

That is the far fetched part. GM’s are professionals.. not teenagers. If there is a chance to snag marner they will offersheet him. GM’s don’t go looking to mess with other teams caps intentionally.

Then explain every offsheet that was not a max deal pick deal?

It's not about messing with someone's cap. It's a matter of saying, we can do better than that, come sign here. 600k a year is no small chunk of change. Especially if you are in a lower tax market than toronto. Which makes the whole pie larger and is worth signing. Especially if they feel they are not getting the offer they deserve from Toronto.

I'm going to stick to this point. 10.6 will be the minimum offer. It makes too much sense for it to be under that. If someone wants to offer more than that that's really a harder argument to make, but to make the argument for 10.6 really isn't bad. There is no doubt toronto realizes this. I can't imagine they would allow a team to float that option. The only reason to not do that is to let someone else negotiate it for you, but then you are stuck with the term and a 7 day match. So the offer has to be larger than that.