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Carolina Hurricanes signed Sebastian Aho (5 Years / $8,454,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Jul 2, 2019 at 5:21
#76
Molson beer is meh
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,737
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Quoting: F50marco
Conspiracy theory:

Carolina and Montreal were in cahoots to get Aho signed this way the whole time.

Intangible benefits are the main gain here:

- Bergevin shows to fans he's doing everything he can to improve team. Gets a player like Aho to sign for what many believe is less than he is worth but in Carolina. Helps Habs negotiate less for Domi as a result. If Aho is 8.4, Domi is what 7M maximum? Maybe even less?
- Dundon and organization show they are willing to spend to make team better. Creates a little excitement and publicity for the team. Waddell and Bergevin work together and hold no ill will to each other behind close doors - In the media they do the opposite for the spectacle sake.
- Aho gets a ton of money up front and much closer to what he originally wanted to probably sign for.


I get the tactic MB used in this offer sheet but its only slightly relevant when you think about it.. Yeah coughing up 21M in bonuses right away is a tough pill to swallow but what exactly would have been the alternative? Its not like Aho wasn't already going to get some nice signing bonuses when they eventually signed him and it seems that people forget after July 1st of 2020, half of his contract would have been paid out already. Meaning in the final 3-4 years it would have been much less expensive for Dundon. Making up for the expensiveness of the first 12 months of the contract. I mean short term pain for long term gain at the end of the day.

I think the only negative impact of a offer sheet being matched is the ill will that GM may have against the GM who offered it. So you have to be 99.9% the other GM won't match. Unless, that is, it was designed to be matched and essentially used to benefit both teams in intangible ways.


Here we go...here comes the conspiracy theories...

For all we know, Dundon made fun of Bergy’s biceps at the draft, and this was a way of retaliation by making Dundon pay big fat cheque’s for the next 5 years. Moral of the story, don’t make fun of a General Manager with big biceps of an organization that can force you to sign big fat cheque’s for the next 5 years!

See I can do it too!!! sarcasm


Jokes aside, I’m willing to bet it’s as simple as Bergevin thought he could financially squeeze an low budget team, and tested it out. It didn’t work, and there was virtually no consequence to trying.
Brian2016 liked this.
Jul 2, 2019 at 5:33
#77
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 8,493
Likes: 1,747
Quoting: drewjenks
HONEST QUESTION:

If you honestly believe Marner will get $11,650,000 x 5 years ... what do you think Rantanen and Point will get ???

He're are the most basic stats for your comparison (Marner places 3rd in every category):

Mitch Marner, RW
1.14 = Points per Game (2019-20)
0.31 = Goals per Game (2019-20)
0.98 = Points per Game (last 2 years)
0.29 = Goals per Game (last 2 years)

Mikko Rantanen, RW
1.18 = Points per Game (2019-20)
0.42 = Goals per Game (2019-20)
1.11 = Points per Game (last 2 years)
0.39 = Goals per Game (last 2 years)

Brayden Point, C
1.16 = Points per Game (2019-20)
0.52 = Goals per Game (2019-20)
0.99 = Points per Game (last 2 years)
0.45 = Goals per Game (last 2 years)


It's not the same question due to tax reasons. We all know TB can offer less and the player will make more.
This is what it is. Toronto threw money at everyone you think the guy who was their best player on the ice last year isn't going to get his too?
Jul 2, 2019 at 5:50
#78
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 8,493
Likes: 1,747
Quoting: drewjenks
LOL kk I'll keep on the lookout for Marner getting $11,600,000 x 5 ... when Aho just signed an offer sheet for $8,500,000 ....


no one ever said he'd make 11.6
Actually you can go find my posts where I say he'll get 10.6 range. roughly the area of 4 1st round picks to offer sheet him. and that's fair considering he was the best player on the team last year and other people got more.
I'll stand by that.
Jul 2, 2019 at 8:44
#79
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 1,966
Likes: 825
So what does MTL do now? Offer sheet for Marner? Point? Rantanen? How much would it take to land one of these young stars? Personally, I think they should offer Point the max amount for the 2nd highest tier, which is about $10.568M AAV. The comp would be two 1st's, one 2nd, and one 3rd round draft pick. MTL would be getting the franchise C they desperately need. I think TBL would have a very difficult time matching at $10.5M. The only question would be: Would Point actually sign the offer sheet? I have no idea.
Jul 2, 2019 at 8:46
#80
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 1,966
Likes: 825
Quoting: Blazingbat11
Here we go...here comes the conspiracy theories...

For all we know, Dundon made fun of Bergy’s biceps at the draft, and this was a way of retaliation by making Dundon pay big fat cheque’s for the next 5 years. Moral of the story, don’t make fun of a General Manager with big biceps of an organization that can force you to sign big fat cheque’s for the next 5 years!

See I can do it too!!! sarcasm


Jokes aside, I’m willing to bet it’s as simple as Bergevin thought he could financially squeeze an low budget team, and tested it out. It didn’t work, and there was virtually no consequence to trying.


Bergevin totally underestimated Aho's value, or else wasn't really serious about signing him. The offer sheet was at least $2M short of what it probably would've taken to steal Aho from CAR.
Jul 2, 2019 at 9:27
#81
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 16,515
Likes: 4,259
Quoting: Blazingbat11
Here we go...here comes the conspiracy theories...

For all we know, Dundon made fun of Bergy’s biceps at the draft, and this was a way of retaliation by making Dundon pay big fat cheque’s for the next 5 years. Moral of the story, don’t make fun of a General Manager with big biceps of an organization that can force you to sign big fat cheque’s for the next 5 years!

See I can do it too!!! sarcasm


Jokes aside, I’m willing to bet it’s as simple as Bergevin thought he could financially squeeze an low budget team, and tested it out. It didn’t work, and there was virtually no consequence to trying.


I mean, one could almost say, MB tried to strong-arm the Hurricanes organization. awesome face

But this is where I feel like something is off. Besides elation, what was your first reaction to the offer sheet? If anyone says anything other than "That won't be enough", they're lying. So we the fans knew, he'd sign but MB, one of the most conservative GM' in the league didn't?

I don't buy this "nothing lost, nothing gained" ideology. If this was indeed not a premeditated agreement with Waddell, MB loses face by losing a offer sheet. Ask Paul Holmgren how his ability to negotiate with other teams was diminished by what he did to Nashville with Weber. He had to relinquish his job as GM as a result......

If you are going to do this, and we all know this is how it works, you either get the player your offer sheeting and other the team gets the nice reward in the form of draft picks or you don't do the offer sheet. Failure is not an option with offer sheets. MB threw a low risk high reward offer out there except it wasn't so low risk was it? Now he has a target on his back. Now other teams have less incentive to work with MB. That code he was preaching about years ago, he's the first one to break it.

I'm happy MB had the balls to finally do one but the thing is he didn't really do it. He made everyone think he did by going through the motions with an empty half hearted effort.

Frankly im being extremely pessimistic about his intentions and i get that, the post was 1/2 serious,1/2 cynical but if he was serious, that leaves me even worse off then before. If it was an "inside job", I can at least understand it 100%. If he seriously thought there was a shot at getting Aho with that offer, that Aho's agent wasn't just playing him and that he must have assembled enough Intel about Dundon's finances that he wouldn't be willing to pay out the high signing bonuses, than I question MB's understanding of the situation.

MB didn't lose anything tangible by making this offer sheet so nothing was physically lost but make no mistake about, literally no one really thought he was going to win this offer and by doing it and not winning, he gave up some serious credibility amongst his peers. That's why i feel there was slightly more to this than what transpired in front of the camera's.

We'll never know of course, so its a pointless thing to read too much into but this was a big deal and one that could have made shockwaves. Instead, MB now has even more pressure to deliver than previously and once again I feel he painted himself into this corner needlessly.

For the price of an extra 1st rounder and a couple mil extra, this deal would have at least been believable. That way everyone would have taken it seriously and Dundon may have had to think about it a little more.
Jul 2, 2019 at 10:20
#82
Joined: Jun 2017
Posts: 553
Likes: 45
I'm just hoping he isn't another Dustin Penner aka Pancakes wink... I'm sure Carolina would have wanted longer term or less money if not both smile. They are only to blame for wasting time getting Marleau to buy him out or other moves like that instead of hammering this thing out to avoid this happening... I'm real glad Montreal pushed the envelope though to make off season more interesting hehe...
Jul 3, 2019 at 1:56
#83
Molson beer is meh
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,737
Likes: 1,073
Quoting: F50marco
I mean, one could almost say, MB tried to strong-arm the Hurricanes organization. awesome face

But this is where I feel like something is off. Besides elation, what was your first reaction to the offer sheet? If anyone says anything other than "That won't be enough", they're lying. So we the fans knew, he'd sign but MB, one of the most conservative GM' in the league didn't?

I don't buy this "nothing lost, nothing gained" ideology. If this was indeed not a premeditated agreement with Waddell, MB loses face by losing a offer sheet. Ask Paul Holmgren how his ability to negotiate with other teams was diminished by what he did to Nashville with Weber. He had to relinquish his job as GM as a result......

If you are going to do this, and we all know this is how it works, you either get the player your offer sheeting and other the team gets the nice reward in the form of draft picks or you don't do the offer sheet. Failure is not an option with offer sheets. MB threw a low risk high reward offer out there except it wasn't so low risk was it? Now he has a target on his back. Now other teams have less incentive to work with MB. That code he was preaching about years ago, he's the first one to break it.

I'm happy MB had the balls to finally do one but the thing is he didn't really do it. He made everyone think he did by going through the motions with an empty half hearted effort.

Frankly im being extremely pessimistic about his intentions and i get that, the post was 1/2 serious,1/2 cynical but if he was serious, that leaves me even worse off then before. If it was an "inside job", I can at least understand it 100%. If he seriously thought there was a shot at getting Aho with that offer, that Aho's agent wasn't just playing him and that he must have assembled enough Intel about Dundon's finances that he wouldn't be willing to pay out the high signing bonuses, than I question MB's understanding of the situation.

MB didn't lose anything tangible by making this offer sheet so nothing was physically lost but make no mistake about, literally no one really thought he was going to win this offer and by doing it and not winning, he gave up some serious credibility amongst his peers. That's why i feel there was slightly more to this than what transpired in front of the camera's.

We'll never know of course, so its a pointless thing to read too much into but this was a big deal and one that could have made shockwaves. Instead, MB now has even more pressure to deliver than previously and once again I feel he painted himself into this corner needlessly.

For the price of an extra 1st rounder and a couple mil extra, this deal would have at least been believable. That way everyone would have taken it seriously and Dundon may have had to think about it a little more.


I agree going up a compensation bracket would've made it more believable. I don't think it would of made a difference though. CAR would of matched basically anything below the 4 1st's compensation.

Here's a conspiracy theory for ya! Aho was never Bergevin's real target.
giphy.gif

This Offer Sheet was all a scheme to show another GM that if he doesn't trade the player Bergy is after, he'll do the same super front loaded deal, but with even worse signing bonuses. And the player Bergy is after is..... Patrick Laine

I'd find it hilarious in the coming weeks, Bergevin offer sheets Laine at something similar or higher, or we hear a trade for him. You can argue WIN are in a worse situation than CAR being a small market team , since they are actually cap strung. Sure they have $22mil now, but that's with only 15 players on their roster. and you have to imagine Laine and Connor chew up at least $16mil of that combined lol
Jul 3, 2019 at 6:22
#84
Joined: Sep 2015
Posts: 59
Likes: 22
Quoting: Blazingbat11
And there’s the rub. Dundon is a billionaire, and MTL is asking him to put his money where his mouth is.

This is the kind of stuff I really love. Very little of this deal has to do with Hockey. This is all about business economics crossing over with sports management. As someone who’s taken a few economics courses in University (as electives lol). Strictly from a business perspective, this deal is a nightmare. Accepting this deal basically forces you to take the next few years at a loss in terms of revenue. Dundon will probably have to dip in the capital from another one of his business’s or of his own personal stash to deal with this, and that’s just bad business, period. From a sports management perspective on the other hand, this is a no brainer. The compensation for letting Aho leave just isn’t good enough. It’s actually crap. The AAV is also almost spot on, and although the term isn’t what CAR want, it’s still manageable. But Wadell right now has no say anymore on what happens next. This guy is literally just going to his boss saying ‘’hey, I have this ****ty offer sheet I need to deal with... I just need $12mil cash for it to go away right now....and another $9mil cash next July 1st...’’
So it’ll be interesting what Dundon decides.

It’s easy for us mortals to tell a billionaire how to spend $21+ million, and odds are CAR matches. But it’s cool to see GMs try something like this, it really doesn’t happen often.


Quoting: Blazingbat11
And there’s the rub. Dundon is a billionaire, and MTL is asking him to put his money where his mouth is.

This is the kind of stuff I really love. Very little of this deal has to do with Hockey. This is all about business economics crossing over with sports management. As someone who’s taken a few economics courses in University (as electives lol). Strictly from a business perspective, this deal is a nightmare. Accepting this deal basically forces you to take the next few years at a loss in terms of revenue. Dundon will probably have to dip in the capital from another one of his business’s or of his own personal stash to deal with this, and that’s just bad business, period. From a sports management perspective on the other hand, this is a no brainer. The compensation for letting Aho leave just isn’t good enough. It’s actually crap. The AAV is also almost spot on, and although the term isn’t what CAR want, it’s still manageable. But Wadell right now has no say anymore on what happens next. This guy is literally just going to his boss saying ‘’hey, I have this ****ty offer sheet I need to deal with... I just need $12mil cash for it to go away right now....and another $9mil cash next July 1st...’’
So it’ll be interesting what Dundon decides.

It’s easy for us mortals to tell a billionaire how to spend $21+ million, and odds are CAR matches. But it’s cool to see GMs try something like this, it really doesn’t happen often.


I thought it was a stupid move to easy to match and wait for the revenge on Domi and KK
Jul 3, 2019 at 10:19
#85
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 16,515
Likes: 4,259
Quoting: Blazingbat11
I agree going up a compensation bracket would've made it more believable. I don't think it would of made a difference though. CAR would of matched basically anything below the 4 1st's compensation.

Here's a conspiracy theory for ya! Aho was never Bergevin's real target.
giphy.gif

This Offer Sheet was all a scheme to show another GM that if he doesn't trade the player Bergy is after, he'll do the same super front loaded deal, but with even worse signing bonuses. And the player Bergy is after is..... Patrick Laine

I'd find it hilarious in the coming weeks, Bergevin offer sheets Laine at something similar or higher, or we hear a trade for him. You can argue WIN are in a worse situation than CAR being a small market team , since they are actually cap strung. Sure they have $22mil now, but that's with only 15 players on their roster. and you have to imagine Laine and Connor chew up at least $16mil of that combined lol


So if he knew it would be matched either way, why not throw the maximum he would be willing to offer then? That way you get Carolina to be way over their internal budget and get them to pay more on a player than they were looking to do? That way there are some tangible benefits to doing it. This offer by MB did nothing. It was pointless. It literally only has negative effects on his GM "respect level" and the only positivity he got was because he made the fan base happy for a grand total of 2 days.....

As someone else put it, this was a lesson in how NOT to offer sheet. We waited for someone to finally take the risk and this was there best option?

Bergie tried to be safe in game of high risk, high reward. That's not how this works. If it was a low risk low reward game, more GM's would be doing it. There's a reason why teams have stayed away from doing it and it was precisely what MB did, who laughably thought he was being smart...... No MB, you look dumb now. Good job.

As for Laine, hey at this point, I hope MB offer sheets every remaining RFA till he gets one because his GM rep will start to make GM's not want to deal with him the more he does it, just like it did for Holmgren. At least though, like Holmgren, he can step down and have someone else fresh come in with no animosity from other GM's and that newly acquired offer sheeted player too.
Jul 3, 2019 at 1:28
#86
gmguy
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 111
Likes: 11
Quoting: Blazingbat11
I agree going up a compensation bracket would've made it more believable. I don't think it would of made a difference though. CAR would of matched basically anything below the 4 1st's compensation.

Here's a conspiracy theory for ya! Aho was never Bergevin's real target.
giphy.gif

This Offer Sheet was all a scheme to show another GM that if he doesn't trade the player Bergy is after, he'll do the same super front loaded deal, but with even worse signing bonuses. And the player Bergy is after is..... Patrick Laine

I'd find it hilarious in the coming weeks, Bergevin offer sheets Laine at something similar or higher, or we hear a trade for him. You can argue WIN are in a worse situation than CAR being a small market team , since they are actually cap strung. Sure they have $22mil now, but that's with only 15 players on their roster. and you have to imagine Laine and Connor chew up at least $16mil of that combined lol


Love that theory, but if I'm not mistaken it can't be Laine, well at the very least it wouldn't be the same type of OS; the front loaded signing bonus trick can only be used on US residents transferring to a Canadian team.
 
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