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Forums/Armchair-GM

Marner discussion thoughts

Created by: NR1203
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 2, 2019
Published: Jul. 2, 2019
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
My ideal contract by term:

1-yr: 7m AAV

2-yr 7.5m AAV

3-yr: 8m AAV

4-yr: Off the table carries straight into UFA

5-yr: Off the table, Matthews and Nylander expire at the same time and don't want to add Marner to that list

6-yr: 9.5m

7-yr: 10m

8-yr: 10.5m

This is ideal. 500k- 1m above the ideal salary would still be tolerable. Thoughts?
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
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2021
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2022
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$70,472,199$0$0$11,027,801
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$3,400,000$3,400,000
LW, RW
UFA - 4
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$11,634,000$11,634,000
C
UFA - 5
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$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
UFA - 5
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$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 6
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$5,300,000$5,300,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1
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$775,000$775,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 2
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$750,000$750,000
C
UFA - 1
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$3,200,000$3,200,000
RW
UFA - 3
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$737,500$737,500
LW
UFA - 2
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$700,000$700,000
C, RW
NTC
UFA - 1
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$775,000$775,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
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$675,000$675,000
C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 3
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$2,750,000$2,750,000
RD
UFA - 1
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$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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$4,000,000$4,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
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$675,000$675,000
RD
UFA - 1
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$700,000$700,000
G
UFA - 1
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$863,333$863,333
LD/RD
UFA - 1
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$725,000$725,000
LD
UFA - 1
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$700,000$700,000
LD
UFA - 1
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$700,000$700,000
LD
UFA - 1

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Jul. 2, 2019 at 10:38 p.m.
#26
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Quoting: Juice
My best guess is 3yrs at a shade over $10m. Something silly with his number in it like $10,160,000.

I don't understand the Aho thing and don't think it set the market. More surprising that Carolina's offers to him were so bad that the Habs offer sheet was attractive enough for him to sign it.

Really just my opinion on what I've heard out of the Marner camp for the last year. They were always looking to piggy back off of Matthews' #. Fair/market value/etc. don't matter much to the Marner camp. That doesn't mean Dubas cracks and gives him what he wants...but the starting point in negotiations for them is almost certainly Auston's number. I could see $11.5m on a 7-8yr term if the leafs free up the space to do it...a bit over $10m on 3yrs...or mid $9's on a yr or 2.

Just a hunch and my opinion...not dragging advanced stats or even trying to suggest I think he's worth that...just where I think it ends up.


I really hope that's not the case. 3x10 is bad now, and would be even worse when Marner demands the highest salary in league history (13m+) in 3 years time.

Quoting: CameronLeafs
if you look at how his agent Darren Ferris has handled things, Sam Bennett, Athanasiou, Josh Anderson, etc.. all leaving their ELCs hold out all summer until Sept/Oct, then cave to very close to what to team wants. I do see the cap concerns, but although many people don't see this, I think Dubas showed that he's not going to get bullied with the Nylander deal. Willy got over a mil less than he wanted, and longer term. I think there comes a point in Sept when dubas makes it clear that this is the maximum offer and that they can't afford more, and they can't afford to have Mitch miss games. make it clear he needs to drop his ask significantly or sit out the season.


I hope that happens, or at some point this summer they reach a reasonable conclusion. But, it's also important that Matthews' contract completely changed the situation, and also that Marner is miles ahead of Bennett/Athanasiou/Anderson, especially in terms of what he meant to his team at the time of the negotiations.
Jul. 2, 2019 at 10:40 p.m.
#27
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Quoting: BeastModeUnknown
Realistically Marner is worth around 7.5/8M for 8 Years, but getting Mitch Marner Camp to think about this rationally is out of the question. We all know Marner has terrible defense, and if it wasn't for Tavares he wouldn't have the offensive stats he does which is why it makes him such an attractive player. Marner trying to base his deal off of Matthews is completely ridiculous to me, as he is not as good nor will ever be as good as Auston Matthews. The big thing is that Dubas needs to figure what is capfriendly to the team, and signing him a 10.5/11M deal for 8 Years does not seem like something Toronto can afford with guys like Liljegren, and Sandin coming around, and when you add in other contracts that are ELC right now, that will need to up the money in upcoming years.

It seems natural for Mitch Marner, and Camp try to make as much money as possible, but he isn't worth Matthews money, and he wouldn't be worth Stamkos money in my mind. The idea he should be making more than Evgeni Malkin to me is widely insane. Simple fact that he is carried by JT, and not the greatest on defense. I'd say 7.5-8M is about worth it.


If you want Marner to sign, that wouldn't happen, as much as everyone wants it to. I also think it's important to consider that the cap was in the 50's or 60's when Malkin signed. He's going to get somewhere in between the 7.5 and 11.5 mark, 9.5 would be fine by me.
Jul. 2, 2019 at 10:41 p.m.
#28
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Quoting: Sign_em_up000000
Not saying it's ideal but i think he gets somewhere between Aho and Panarin, my guess is 6 years 10.5 yes its an overpayment and i wouldn't go that high personally just my guess hopefully its less though


That's 500k-1m too much.
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Jul. 2, 2019 at 10:51 p.m.
#29
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Quoting: NR1203
That's 500k-1m too much.


I said it was an overpayment just my opinion
Jul. 2, 2019 at 10:51 p.m.
#30
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Just to play devil's advocate and to see responses, if a team were to offer sheet him at 10.5 x 5yrs for 2 1sts, 2nd, and 3rd, are the Leafs matching, and do you want them to match at that compensation?
Jul. 2, 2019 at 10:52 p.m.
#31
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Quoting: NR1203
That's 500k-1m too much.


Also i think we're well past what mitch is worth, but Aho did his part to give 16 a reality check
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Jul. 2, 2019 at 10:53 p.m.
#32
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Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
The offer sheet max is 10.6 million to receive the 4 1st Rounders, so I believe the Marner/Leafs use that number as a minimum for a long term contract.


Offer sheet max? I thought that was simply the range that, if any offer goes over falls in the 4 first rounders.

Don’t get me wrong. I think there’s some teams that would pay him $11.5+. And some teams that might deal 4 first rounders for him. I’m not sure there’s a team that would do both tho
Jul. 2, 2019 at 10:57 p.m.
#33
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Quoting: Dannomano
Just to play devil's advocate and to see responses, if a team were to offer sheet him at 10.5 x 5yrs for 2 1sts, 2nd, and 3rd, are the Leafs matching, and do you want them to match at that compensation?


Leafs match that imo. That is the only logical offer sheet move, but it would likely just incite retaliation. The team has no chance of the leafs not matching for that package imo. Just offering to drive up value.
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Jul. 2, 2019 at 11:02 p.m.
#34
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Quoting: CameronLeafs
Leafs match that imo. That is the only logical offer sheet move, but it would likely just incite retaliation. The team has no chance of the leafs not matching for that package imo. Just offering to drive up value.


Now with Ceci, and Kerfoot needing to be signed, if the offer comes in at 10.5, who gets moved to free up space to sign all three?
Jul. 2, 2019 at 11:16 p.m.
#35
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Quoting: Dannomano
Now with Ceci, and Kerfoot needing to be signed, if the offer comes in at 10.5, who gets moved to free up space to sign all three?


Walk away from Ceci's arb, or if he signs his QO trade him. That would be my best guess.I would match that offer sheet.
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Jul. 2, 2019 at 11:31 p.m.
#36
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Quoting: Dannomano
Just to play devil's advocate and to see responses, if a team were to offer sheet him at 10.5 x 5yrs for 2 1sts, 2nd, and 3rd, are the Leafs matching, and do you want them to match at that compensation?


I would think 100%. What I heard was that a team would maybe offer a 4yr contract at a number the leafs would match so that he walks to free agency
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Jul. 2, 2019 at 11:34 p.m.
#37
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Quoting: Juice
I would think 100%. What I heard was that a team would maybe offer a 4yr contract at a number the leafs would match so that he walks to free agency


doing stuff like this sets a dangerous precedent though. I'm sure every GM is hoping it would happen but none would actually do it. If a team pulls the trigger on that, you can bet on the leafs retaliating at the earliest opportunity.
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Jul. 2, 2019 at 11:57 p.m.
#38
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Quoting: CameronLeafs
doing stuff like this sets a dangerous precedent though. I'm sure every GM is hoping it would happen but none would actually do it. If a team pulls the trigger on that, you can bet on the leafs retaliating at the earliest opportunity.


Completely agree, but still interesting and a possibility to discuss. Who knows, maybe Bergevin goes for broke haha
I can't wait until the Canes offer sheet Domi or Kotkaniemi
Jul. 3, 2019 at 12:16 a.m.
#39
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I think the new-age of GM doesn't take personal offense to an in-coming offer sheet. In some cases, the offering team is doing the current GM a favour by getting the player to agree to terms. To me, Aho is a slam dunk at that # and Bergevin did the Canes a favour.

You obviously want to negotiate on your own terms...but if you're at a stalemate, it's not the worst thing in the world to have a player vs. picks option to choose from.

When Burke flew off the handle at the Dustin Penner offer sheet, he wasn't so much pissed at the offer sheet so much as he was pissed off that Edmonton was eliminating the "2nd contract"...something that appears to have come true.
Jul. 3, 2019 at 12:24 a.m.
#40
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Quoting: Juice
I think the new-age of GM doesn't take personal offense to an in-coming offer sheet. In some cases, the offering team is doing the current GM a favour by getting the player to agree to terms. To me, Aho is a slam dunk at that # and Bergevin did the Canes a favour.

You obviously want to negotiate on your own terms...but if you're at a stalemate, it's not the worst thing in the world to have a player vs. picks option to choose from.

When Burke flew off the handle at the Dustin Penner offer sheet, he wasn't so much pissed at the offer sheet so much as he was pissed off that Edmonton was eliminating the "2nd contract"...something that appears to have come true.


while I don't think they take is as personally, something like just submitting an offer sheet to drive the price of a player up and lose a player to UFA sooner is unprecedented. you can bet that those 4 year offer sheets at a reasonable amount would be going out to every single RFA not signed by July 1st if GMs were comfortable with it. Players would love to hit UFA sooner, opposing GMs would too. so there has to be something stopping them, which is likely just fear of retaliation.
Jul. 3, 2019 at 12:38 a.m.
#41
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Quoting: CameronLeafs
while I don't think they take is as personally, something like just submitting an offer sheet to drive the price of a player up and lose a player to UFA sooner is unprecedented. you can bet that those 4 year offer sheets at a reasonable amount would be going out to every single RFA not signed by July 1st if GMs were comfortable with it. Players would love to hit UFA sooner, opposing GMs would too. so there has to be something stopping them, which is likely just fear of retaliation.


I know that those 4 year offer sheets have at least been discussed with the Marner camp. It's one thing for them to be discussed or offered...but the player needs to sign it. A guy like Marner might not be quick to sign an offer sheet if he thinks there's a decent chance a contract can get negotiated with the Leafs. He also might not care about a "reasonable amount" if his objective is to max out on $$.

There's just so much that goes on that we don't know about....and just because a guy might sign a contract that walks him right to UFA doesn't mean he won't just re-up with the club beforehand...it simply gives him more leverage in the next round of negotiations
 
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