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Why are people mis-representing the Leafs cap situation so aggressively

Created by: drewjenks
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 6, 2019
Published: Jul. 6, 2019
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RFA - 3
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Jul. 6, 2019 at 10:15 p.m.
#26
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Quoting: Bluejackets2000
All due respect, my point was, in the salary cap era, Panarin is the comparable now. Regardless of his (Marner’s) age, Bread-man just set the precedent (and he probably took a $1m discount if you believe some sources). So even if Toronto has Team control (hence my comment about a good problem to have), you can hate on Marner all you want Leafs fans, but he is worth more than Toronto can currently pay him right now, and that is a fact.


with all due respect, I don't think i can take anything you say from now on seriously. sure the leafs would struggle to give him a deal longer than 6/7 years, but he would probably be fine on a bridge of 3 years where he gets close to ~9 mill. Panarin isn't exactly the best comparable because he was a UFA and that involved a bidding war among the jackets, isles and rangers. marner does not have the ability to do that. sure he can sign an OS, but his camp has said they does not want it to be longer than 3 years, which teams do not want to do.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 10:16 p.m.
#27
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Quoting: drewjenks
"It has been extremely difficult for teams with 2 superstars to succeed".

----

You then go on to list Chicago, Pittsburgh and Washington as the teams finding it "extremely difficult to succeed" with two superstars.

Those three teams have won 6 (SIX!) of the last 10 Stanley Cups ... is that your idea of extremly difficult to succeed?

And Edmonton would have won cups too if they didn't trade:

- Hall's $6,000,000 for Lucic's $6,000,000
- Schultz's $5,500,000 for Sekera's $5,500,000
- Barzals $925,000 for Reinhart's $925,000
- Petry's $5,500,000 for Russell's $4,000,000

Their failure has everything to do with hockey trades and nothing to do cap-constraints.

McDavid
Draisaitl
Barzal
Hall
Nuge
Chiasson

Klefbom
Schultz
Nurse
Petry

Would have cost about the same as their current roster for the past two seasons ... and next season.


You are not wrong. And they al have won cups. But it did take a few years to juggle the lineups with fill in players around their 2 superstars. Point being, there is a whole roster of players pushimg for salary and term on every team. It doesn’t last for very long. Toronto is pushing the envelope with 3 superstars now, But fitting even 2 under the cap is very difficult. That was my point. 3 is definitely even more difficult. And Marner doesn’t want to take a discount. Panarin is the new comparable, and some would even argue he took a $1m discount to play in NYR.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 10:20 p.m.
#28
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Quoting: Bluejackets2000
All due respect, my point was, in the salary cap era, Panarin is the comparable now. Regardless of his (Marner’s) age, Bread-man just set the precedent (and he probably took a $1m discount if you believe some sources). So even if Toronto has Team control (hence my comment about a good problem to have), you can hate on Marner all you want Leafs fans, but he is worth more than Toronto can currently pay him right now, and that is a fact.


????? What. Where do come up with this stuff? The Leafs aren't going to make an offer that underpays Marner, but maybe they can't compete if a team makes an offer sheet that overpays him.
Kucherov who was on year away from UFA, the league MVP signed for 9.5m. Aho and Marner have almost identical stats and value for their team and he signed for 8.45m X 5.
So if you want UFA Panarin to be the comparable fine....(I don't think it is), let some team make than on a formal offer sheet and have Marner sign it.
And it's not a fact that Leaf can't pay him 11.6, They can. It's a question if they will.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 10:26 p.m.
#29
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Quoting: AJM2466
with all due respect, I don't think i can take anything you say from now on seriously. sure the leafs would struggle to give him a deal longer than 6/7 years, but he would probably be fine on a bridge of 3 years where he gets close to ~9 mill. Panarin isn't exactly the best comparable because he was a UFA and that involved a bidding war among the jackets, isles and rangers. marner does not have the ability to do that. sure he can sign an OS, but his camp has said they does not want it to be longer than 3 years, which teams do not want to do.


You know so much. Do I care if you take what I say seriously? Really? I know what a bridge deal is. I speak the truth. I already told you in my post I understand what team control is (UFA vs RFA). So don’t think you are teaching me anything I don’t already know.
Marner is producing like a UFA 6 years older than him. And I know centers have more value than wingers. But I stand by my original post. Wingers with the talent and vision of Panarin and Marner are worth closer to top center money since they act like a center in distributing the puck to teammates just like a top center would. Like I said, it is a nice problem to have, for a GM/team standpoint.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 10:30 p.m.
#30
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Quoting: Ngp2
Add 2M to the Marner contract and they’re over the cap now. Hyman comes back and they’re over with 20, aka the minimum roster, feels bad to me.


You're right.

It does feel bad ... Dubas will have less than 4 months to do any of the following:

- Trade Hyman for a pick / prospect / ELC roster player
- Trade Ceci for a pick / prospect / ELC roster player / cheaper replacement
- Trade Kerfoot for a picks / prospects / ELC roster player / cheaper replacement
- Trade Kapanen for a picks / prospects / ELC roster player / cheaper replacement
- Trade Johnsson for a picks / prospects / ELC roster player / cheaper replacement

You're so right!

HOW THE HECK DID HE LET THIS HAPPEN !!?!?!???!?!?!!!?!!

And all it's gonna take to bring us crashing down is Marner becoming the highest paid winger in the NHL ??? OMG IT'S INEVITABLE !!!!

Or maybe we'll just take the 4 first round picks and then sign Hall + Pietrangelo next year?

Matthews + Tavares + Hall + Nylander + Johnsson + Kapanen + Rielly + Pietrangelo + Muzzin + Barrie + 1ST (2020) + 1ST + 1ST (2021) + 1ST + 1ST (2022) + 1ST + 1ST (2023)

Feels pretty bad though right?
Jul. 6, 2019 at 10:32 p.m.
#31
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Quoting: palhal
????? What. Where do come up with this stuff? The Leafs aren't going to make an offer that underpays Marner, but maybe they can't compete if a team makes an offer sheet that overpays him.
Kucherov who was on year away from UFA, the league MVP signed for 9.5m. Aho and Marner have almost identical stats and value for their team and he signed for 8.45m X 5.
So if you want UFA Panarin to be the comparable fine....(I don't think it is), let some team make than on a formal offer sheet and have Marner sign it.
And it's not a fact that Leaf can't pay him 11.6, They can. It's a question if they will.


In my opinion, that is what Marner is waiting on. He has nothing to lose. With the UFA bidding wars on the top remaining UFA talent disappearing, an offer sheet of whatever value $10.5m-$11m? It Would definitely give Marner the leverage he wants and force The Leaf’s hand to either make more trades to keep him or let him go for the picks. There may be GMs out there desperate enough. I don’t think CBJ would, Jarmo values picks too highly to do it. Maybe a trade though.
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Jul. 6, 2019 at 10:37 p.m.
#32
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Quoting: Bluejackets2000
All due respect, my point was, in the salary cap era, Panarin is the comparable now. Regardless of his (Marner’s) age, Bread-man just set the precedent (and he probably took a $1m discount if you believe some sources). So even if Toronto has Team control (hence my comment about a good problem to have), you can hate on Marner all you want Leafs fans, but he is worth more than Toronto can currently pay him right now, and that is a fact.


But wouldn't Marner's comparables be like UHHHHHM other RFA's that are wingers with similar performance to Marner like UHMMMMMM .....

Timo Meier = $6,000,000 x 4
Subastian Aho = $8,500,000 x 5
Nikita Kucherov = $9,500,000 x 8

Wait ... now that I think of it ... I'm pretty sure Kuch had like 40 more points than Marner ... double his goals ... and won the Hart trophy ....
Jul. 6, 2019 at 10:44 p.m.
#33
NGP22
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Quoting: drewjenks
You're right.

It does feel bad ... Dubas will have less than 4 months to do any of the following:

- Trade Hyman for a pick / prospect / ELC roster player
- Trade Ceci for a pick / prospect / ELC roster player / cheaper replacement
- Trade Kerfoot for a picks / prospects / ELC roster player / cheaper replacement
- Trade Kapanen for a picks / prospects / ELC roster player / cheaper replacement
- Trade Johnsson for a picks / prospects / ELC roster player / cheaper replacement

You're so right!

HOW THE HECK DID HE LET THIS HAPPEN !!?!?!???!?!?!!!?!!

And all it's gonna take to bring us crashing down is Marner becoming the highest paid winger in the NHL ??? OMG IT'S INEVITABLE !!!!

Or maybe we'll just take the 4 first round picks and then sign Hall + Pietrangelo next year?

Matthews + Tavares + Hall + Nylander + Johnsson + Kapanen + Rielly + Pietrangelo + Muzzin + Barrie + 1ST (2020) + 1ST + 1ST (2021) + 1ST + 1ST (2022) + 1ST + 1ST (2023)

Feels pretty bad though right?


So yeah Ceci isn’t moveable and having to move any of the roster players you mention for nothing would make the Leafs worse this year. Hall and Pietrangelo is a good plan but it still means they’d have a down year. That’s all people are saying, if Marner gets 12M the Leafs are gonna take a step back.

Barrie and Muzzin are UFA fyi
Jul. 6, 2019 at 10:44 p.m.
#34
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Quoting: drewjenks
But wouldn't Marner's comparables be like UHHHHHM other RFA's that are wingers with similar performance to Marner like UHMMMMMM .....

Timo Meier = $6,000,000 x 4
Subastian Aho = $8,500,000 x 5
Nikita Kucherov = $9,500,000 x 8

Wait ... now that I think of it ... I'm pretty sure Kuch had like 40 more points than Marner ... double his goals ... and won the Hart trophy ....


Kucherov wasn’t a hart winner when he signed
Jul. 6, 2019 at 10:49 p.m.
#35
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Quoting: Bluejackets2000
You are not wrong. And they al have won cups. But it did take a few years to juggle the lineups with fill in players around their 2 superstars. Point being, there is a whole roster of players pushimg for salary and term on every team. It doesn’t last for very long. Toronto is pushing the envelope with 3 superstars now, But fitting even 2 under the cap is very difficult. That was my point. 3 is definitely even more difficult. And Marner doesn’t want to take a discount. Panarin is the new comparable, and some would even argue he took a $1m discount to play in NYR.


Sure ... lets just use a UFA as a comparable and just skip right over RFA's like Kucherov, Aho and Meier ...

This exact logic would have put the Kapanen + Johnson + Kerfoot signings in the range of:

Jordan Eberle @ $5,500,000 x 5
Mats Zucarello @ $6,000,000 x 5
Brock Nelson @ $6,000,000 x 6
Anders Lee @ $7,000,000 x 7
Kevin Hayes @ $7,150,000 x 7

I mean their stats are similar ... doesn't that make them comparable's?

Why did all 3 of them get close 50% less?
Jul. 6, 2019 at 10:54 p.m.
#36
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Quoting: Ngp2
So yeah Ceci isn’t moveable and having to move any of the roster players you mention for nothing would make the Leafs worse this year. Hall and Pietrangelo is a good plan but it still means they’d have a down year. That’s all people are saying, if Marner gets 12M the Leafs are gonna take a step back.

Barrie and Muzzin are UFA fyi


Kerfoot + 1st + 4th for a better Center on an entry level contract ....

Be creative my dude ... there are infinite possibilities if you would just open your soul to them.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 10:59 p.m.
#37
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Quoting: Ngp2
Kucherov wasn’t a hart winner when he signed


o0o0o0oo0o0o0o0o .... my bad .... you right ... he was a scrub in December ... he wasn't on pace for 140 points ... and he hadn't just completed a 100 point / 40 goal season ...

I apologize my misrepresentation ... he clearly wasn't good enough to be a comparable for Marner at that point.
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Jul. 6, 2019 at 11:04 p.m.
#38
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Quoting: Bluejackets2000
You know so much. Do I care if you take what I say seriously? Really? I know what a bridge deal is. I speak the truth. I already told you in my post I understand what team control is (UFA vs RFA). So don’t think you are teaching me anything I don’t already know.
Marner is producing like a UFA 6 years older than him. And I know centers have more value than wingers. But I stand by my original post. Wingers with the talent and vision of Panarin and Marner are worth closer to top center money since they act like a center in distributing the puck to teammates just like a top center would. Like I said, it is a nice problem to have, for a GM/team standpoint.


the fact of the matter is centers get paid more than wingers. please do not try to compare them just because the do similar things. defenseman pass the puck like a center, wingers, and even goalies sometimes too! goal scorers get paid more than wingers. Marner is a star player obviously. Aho is a star player. if aho gets the 8.5 and comfortably signs it, why should marner get 2-3 million more than that? he technically shouldnt, but thats what will happen. just please use your brain next time you want to have an extremely wild and wrong take about having 2 superstars and how it was "extremely difficult" for the pens, hawks, and caps to succeed. go back to being a casual fan
Jul. 6, 2019 at 11:06 p.m.
#39
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Quoting: Bluejackets2000
You know so much. Do I care if you take what I say seriously? Really? I know what a bridge deal is. I speak the truth. I already told you in my post I understand what team control is (UFA vs RFA). So don’t think you are teaching me anything I don’t already know.
Marner is producing like a UFA 6 years older than him. And I know centers have more value than wingers. But I stand by my original post. Wingers with the talent and vision of Panarin and Marner are worth closer to top center money since they act like a center in distributing the puck to teammates just like a top center would. Like I said, it is a nice problem to have, for a GM/team standpoint.


Goal's are more valuable than assists during contract negotiations ... so your premise is off ... and you honestly don't seem to understand UFA vs RFA ... despite your comments.

If Marner was a UFA he would have signed Panarin's contract already ... but he can't because no one is giving up 4 first round picks for the pleasure of overpaying.
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Jul. 6, 2019 at 11:06 p.m.
#40
NGP22
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Quoting: drewjenks
o0o0o0oo0o0o0o0o .... my bad .... you right ... he was a scrub in December ... he wasn't on pace for 140 points ... and he hadn't just completed a 100 point / 40 goal season ...

I apologize my misrepresentation ... he clearly wasn't good enough to be a comparable for Marner at that point.


Is Matthews 2.5M better than Marner?
Jul. 6, 2019 at 11:08 p.m.
#41
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Edited Jul. 6, 2019 at 11:16 p.m.
Quoting: Ngp2
Is Matthews 2.5M better than Marner?


if Marner learns to score at the same rate than no but...
Jul. 6, 2019 at 11:14 p.m.
#42
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Quoting: Ngp2
Is Matthews 2.5M better than Marner?


No. Gee, if you might even argue they are the same or even Marner is better. But it really doesn't matter. Marner can argue the Matthews comparison and the Leaf can argue the Aho comparison. If it's all about Marner signing for the most money, the Marner will have wait for an offer sheet and sign it. And there are few maybe two teams that have that kind of cap space now and next year that can afford to overpay Marner.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 11:15 p.m.
#43
NGP22
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Quoting: AJM2466
if Marner learns to score at the same rate than no but...


Marner had a higher rate at evens last year
Jul. 6, 2019 at 11:18 p.m.
#44
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Quoting: Ngp2
Marner had a higher rate at evens last year


did not know this, pretty sweet. curious to see if he scores more frequently with a guy other than hyman on other side
Jul. 6, 2019 at 11:59 p.m.
#45
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Quoting: Ngp2
Is Matthews 2.5M better than Marner?


Would playing on Tavares wing increase his point totals ... or would he get the exact same amount when centering two rookies?

Since Matthews has entered the NHL ... the last 3 seasons combined ... he is #1 in Goals Per 60 Minutes. (just ahead of Ovechkin).

No one in the NHL has scored goals at the rate of 18-21 year old Matthews ... Marner is about 30th in Assists Per 60 Minutes and well below that in Goals + Points.

So ya probably ... especially when you give him an extra 500k+ for being a center (which is the markets opinion - not mine).
Jul. 7, 2019 at 12:02 a.m.
#46
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Quoting: Ngp2
So yeah Ceci isn’t moveable and having to move any of the roster players you mention for nothing would make the Leafs worse this year. Hall and Pietrangelo is a good plan but it still means they’d have a down year. That’s all people are saying, if Marner gets 12M the Leafs are gonna take a step back.

Barrie and Muzzin are UFA fyi


Actually Zaitsev wasn't moveable ... Ceci is much more movable than Zaitsev ... expand your mind.
 
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