Protas is a placeholder for himself, McMichael, or some other guy being thrown in over his head.
Backstrom takes a discount against his agent's advice in accepting anything under $10mil a year. Among active players with 500+ games played, he's 6th in points per game at 0.97, with only Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Kane, and Stamkos ahead of him. 13th in total points in the same group. He's been underpaid by millions for most of his career, so he is going to get his.
I think the team bites the bullet and signs Holtby to a top-dollar, lower term deal. He eventually gets traded to Seattle as the team's "claimed" player in the upcoming expansion draft (a la Fleury to Vegas), because he will be the best goalie realistically available and not have a ridiculous term attached to him, and the Caps cannot realistically compete with a guy who's never played in the NHL as their starting 'tender. Term might go longer than three years, but really it comes down to what Seattle would realistically accept. Even if it goes six years, I think they'd take on Holtby.
Buuuut the team has to sacrifice experience somewhere. Eller is where it happens, as the team continues to cut dollars in the bottom six and promoting one of their recent draft picks ahead of schedule as a result of the cap. Far from ideal, and maybe they take a shot on some cheap UFA, but it's easier to compete for a year with a weakness at 3C than 1G.
This leaves very very little cap space if they carry anyone extra, so unless the cap jumps higher than my expected $83mil (going off of what it was supposed to be this year), the team doesn't carry anyone extra unless/until they have some space banked later in the season.
Protas nor McMichael will be 3C ready next season. MAYBE Pilon or Sutter, but doubtful. But you'll have space to keep Eller longer until they are ready.
I love Backstrom but no way in hell I'm giving a 33yo a 8 year deal at $9.5M. I bet we can get him for $8M for like 5 years.
Caps would be incredibly stupid to sign Holtby, UNLESS they plan on trading him soon after or as you said let Seattle take him.
Protas nor McMichael will be 3C ready next season. MAYBE Pilon or Sutter, but doubtful. But you'll have space to keep Eller longer until they are ready.
I love Backstrom but no way in hell I'm giving a 33yo a 8 year deal at $9.5M. I bet we can get him for $8M for like 5 years.
Caps would be incredibly stupid to sign Holtby, UNLESS they plan on trading him soon after or as you said let Seattle take him.
I don't think Holtby even takes that offer. Some team desperate for goaltending would likely offer him $10M for 7 years, or even more depending on how this season goes for him. He has one big leg up on Bobrovsky - he's won a Cup. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get 10.5-11M a year for a 7 year deal from a team like Jersey.
I think the Caps have to be willing to walk away from Holtby after this season. You need to see what Samsonov has. That $10M for Holtby allocated here is just too rich for a team like the Caps, not to mention you have to re-sign Ovi the next off-season. I just don't see it right now, unless the cap goes up considerably, or the NHL moves to a soft-cap system.
I don't think Holtby even takes that offer. Some team desperate for goaltending would likely offer him $10M for 7 years, or even more depending on how this season goes for him. He has one big leg up on Bobrovsky - he's won a Cup. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get 10.5-11M a year for a 7 year deal from a team like Jersey.
I think the Caps have to be willing to walk away from Holtby after this season. You need to see what Samsonov has. That $10M for Holtby allocated here is just too rich for a team like the Caps, not to mention you have to re-sign Ovi the next off-season. I just don't see it right now, unless the cap goes up considerably, or the NHL moves to a soft-cap system.
I mean, that's largely what I said - this is under the assumption that the plan is to move him to Seattle, and the term is probably light but could go longer. He definitely could get more on the open market, but if he is able to play in DC for one more year, that's a benefit to both player and team.
Even still, the crazy thing about this team setup is that there is over $13mil in salary the next season, with Ovi, Samsonov, Djoos, and Gersich to re-sign along with some AHL guys. If Holtby gets moved, everything looks like a steal because that cap space opens up. If not, for whatever reason (Samsonov looks like he can't hack it in the NHL, for example), then the team moves Oshie to Seattle and creates plenty of room for everyone involved.
Protas nor McMichael will be 3C ready next season. MAYBE Pilon or Sutter, but doubtful. But you'll have space to keep Eller longer until they are ready.
I love Backstrom but no way in hell I'm giving a 33yo a 8 year deal at $9.5M. I bet we can get him for $8M for like 5 years.
Caps would be incredibly stupid to sign Holtby, UNLESS they plan on trading him soon after or as you said let Seattle take him.
I read that as "I'm fine with Backstrom playing for another team after this season." Which if you are, fine. I think that's silly, but fine. But the market is the market. Backstrom is one of the league's best and most reliable players, and he's not taking a contract smaller than Sebastian Aho's. $9.5mil a year is a 10-15% discount from the open market.
I read that as "I'm fine with Backstrom playing for another team after this season." Which if you are, fine. I think that's silly, but fine. But the market is the market. Backstrom is one of the league's best and most reliable players, and he's not taking a contract smaller than Sebastian Aho's. $9.5mil a year is a 10-15% discount from the open market.
I'd easily let Backstrom go if he wanted that contract. But I'd bet he sign for less on less term. Can't see him wanting to uproot his family at the age of 33 to just go somewhere else.
I'd easily let Backstrom go if he wanted that contract. But I'd bet he sign for less on less term. Can't see him wanting to uproot his family at the age of 33 to just go somewhere else.
Well, to each their own. I can't imagine letting a nearly point per game player that is a bedrock of my team walk because I don't want to pay him more than 70% of market value and half term, but I guess that's just me. You know what makes it a lot easier to uproot your family? $30,000,000.
Well, to each their own. I can't imagine letting a nearly point per game player that is a bedrock of my team walk because I don't want to pay him more than 70% of market value and half term, but I guess that's just me. You know what makes it a lot easier to uproot your family? $30,000,000.
Maybe but it's hard to compare him to someone like Aho. Aho is 10 years younger is getting even better. Backstrom is declining.
Thornton at 32yo signed a 3 year $7M AAV contract, it was 10.9% of the cap. Assuming the cap goes up $2M next season to $83.5M then 10.9% of that is $9.1M so it's similar to yours but if they up the term to say 5 years it should be closer to $8M.
Maybe but it's hard to compare him to someone like Aho. Aho is 10 years younger is getting even better. Backstrom is declining.
Thornton at 32yo signed a 3 year $7M AAV contract, it was 10.9% of the cap. Assuming the cap goes up $2M next season to $83.5M then 10.9% of that is $9.1M so it's similar to yours but if they up the term to say 5 years it should be closer to $8M.
In what way is Backstrom declining? Do you have any evidence of that being true? Because I bet you don't. To the contrary, Backstrom's career average is 79.98 points per 82 games. His most recent three year average is 77.95 points per 82 games, with the most recent season being 75.85 per 82. 2-4 points off a career average is random luck, not remotely evidence of a decline, especially when you factor in that he has matched or exceeded his career average in goals per season (~21) every year for the last three years.
Do you simply mean to say he is getting older, and that in theory he should decline? You mention Thornton, who is a pretty good comparable in terms of talent and production, and he didn't really start to decline until he was 38.
And again, the market is the market. With the CBA and expansion draft coming up, no veteran of Backstrom's talent is taking a bridge deal, let alone one that underpays them.
In what way is Backstrom declining? Do you have any evidence of that being true? Because I bet you don't. To the contrary, Backstrom's career average is 79.98 points per 82 games. His most recent three year average is 77.95 points per 82 games, with the most recent season being 75.85 per 82. 2-4 points off a career average is random luck, not remotely evidence of a decline, especially when you factor in that he has matched or exceeded his career average in goals per season (~21) every year for the last three years.
Do you simply mean to say he is getting older, and that in theory he should decline? You mention Thornton, who is a pretty good comparable in terms of talent and production, and he didn't really start to decline until he was 38.
And again, the market is the market. With the CBA and expansion draft coming up, no veteran of Backstrom's talent is taking a bridge deal, let alone one that underpays them.
Just common science he's declining. The older you get the worse you get. There's plenty of articles written about this. If you expect Backstrom to keep up this type of production for 8 more years I have some bad news.
And there's no such thing as bridge deal as a 30+ year old, they are just regular deals. He isn't getting 8 years, or even 7 years in his next contract. It won't go over 5 and I'd guarantee that. No one is giving him a 33 year old a huge contract. Whens the last time that even happened? Think Jumbo Joe is the best comparable and he kept signing 3 year then 1 year deals after 32.
Just common science he's declining. The older you get the worse you get. There's plenty of articles written about this. If you expect Backstrom to keep up this type of production for 8 more years I have some bad news.
And there's no such thing as bridge deal as a 30+ year old, they are just regular deals. He isn't getting 8 years, or even 7 years in his next contract. It won't go over 5 and I'd guarantee that. No one is giving him a 33 year old a huge contract. Whens the last time that even happened? Think Jumbo Joe is the best comparable and he kept signing 3 year then 1 year deals after 32.
Not that either of us would remember, but I would bet $50 to your favorite charity that his next deal is over five years, or if it is five or fewer then it is $10mil+ AAV.
Not that either of us would remember, but I would bet $50 to your favorite charity that his next deal is over five years, or if it is five or fewer then it is $10mil+ AAV.
Ok deal! haha Fun friendly wager. And if you get the "it can be 5 or fewer if it's $10M+" I get "it can be 6 or more if it's less than $7M.
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