Quoting: Caniac555
It was reported by several outlets, specific by Friedman, that an $12Mx8 deal was on the table that Matthews was willing to take but the Leafs waited. Matthews started hot and that $12M went to $14 on a 8 year deal.
You might be right on the one of the RFAs blinking, but they are all looking to Marner right now. I think it’s going to be a GM who blinks first and gives one of these guys a 5 year deal.
Also, I never said the other RFAs could compare themselves to Matthews. My point on the RFAs is term, not money. They can absolutely compare to Matthews and Aho regarding term. Case in point, Rantanen in Colorado...why should he not be able to force his way into a 5 year deal? Colorado has the money to pay him what he’s worth, why isn’t he signed already?
I agreed with you on how RFAs will be looking to shorter term. It can only benefit their side, and I don't think the 8 yr deal is as big of a deal to GMs as it used to be. Managing the cap on a year to year basis is the priority, imo. Each of the teams with a superstar RFA has their own cap challenges, minus maybe Colorado, as you point out. The Avs do have the money to pay Rantanen what he's worth, but I would assume the sticking point is "what is he worth exactly?" Is he worth the Aho deal? Or is he worth Marner's demand of AM money? I'd say Sakic goes with the former while Rantanen waits to see if marner gets the latter. Which I can't imagine he'll get, and then the other RFAs start to fall like dominos. They aren't all sitting this year, and even Marner says he wants to be signed for the start of camp.
I agree with you again that everyone is waiting to see what happens with Marner. But I'd say that Dubas and co have played this just about perfectly... they have a very solid offer on the table, which by all accounts is still an overpay for Mitch, and they have enough cap to match any OS upto the 4 firsts cutoff 9almost to the penny). Teams know that so I doubt there is an OS at that amount. Anything over the 4 firsts threshold, the leafs let Marner walk if he wants to sign that OS (which apparently he doesn't want to..) So, Marner can either sign a contract based on league wide comparables, or he can sit, or he'll get traded. It very much looks like this will be his choice. And if he decides to sit, I'd imagine that other RFAs will choose to sign based on their comparables, which will only further weaken Marner's demands.
All in all I think alot of this is blown out of proportion with the major shift in outcomes being shorter terms for RFAs, like you state.