The hell is this Beauvillier contract

A 3 year bridge because he's been inconsistent AF. I don't think it's that far off - plus or minus a few hundred thousand depending on the years.

i think you're making too high of a gamble on this. you don't leave that much room for future signings once barzal gets a massive paycheck, and those picks could easily be late teens.

I feel like you've taken bits and pieces of things I've posted on here and made your own post about it... lol. But all kidding aside, this is what my thought process on a Marner OS has been all along. The Isles have the prospect pool to handle giving up 4 1st rounders and they also have enough contracts that are movable that won't hurt the team overall to clear the necessary space to do so. And like you said, the percentage of someone in the lower picks of the first round turning into a Marner is very, very low.

As for the Beauvillier deal, the AAV seems about right, but it'll likely be a 1 or 2 year prove it deal.

He should be at 2.75 for 3 years. Barely below Kapanen/Heinen/Johnsson. The only thing keeping him below is the RFA years left

O. M. G.

The guy spends substantial time visualizing this scheme, at least an hour writing up a lengthy Team Explanation, presents five major actions (offer-sheeting Marner and losing 4 first-round picks; trading Leddy, trading Hickey, moving Ladd, and analyzing a value for each; and signing Boyle) and explains his reasoning on all of them, AND YOU WANT TO TALK ABOUT THE ****ING BEAUVILLIER CONTRACT?!?!?

If you want people to treat your ideas with respect, you have to treat theirs with equal respect.

Everything makes sense and looks good except that contract

You present a very good case for each of your moves. I might not agree with them or even your reasoning, but the ideas are really intelligent.

My man I've been on this train for a while - I've got the links to prove it lol. I only wanted to spell it out in the description. Just two rational minds with an idea that makes sense

Well, then, say that, for goodness' sake.

i just cant see it being a super competitive team with the D core the way it is. but to be honest i dont know a lot about them

No way Beau gets 2.75m on a 3 year deal. Kapanen and Johnsson got what they got because they both put up 40+ point seasons. Beau is more comparable to Duclair right now, who just signed a 1 year 1.65m contract. He should get something between 1.5 and 1.75 on a 1 or 2 year deal... 2m on a 3 year deal is the MAX I'd go with him right now.

yeah i agree with you, if he was smart he would go for the 1 year deal then be arbitration eligible next season and bank on himself having a good season.

It's really Trotz' system that deserves the credit here. Dobson hopefully does enough to warrant playing the entire season, but if it's only a 9 game look Boychuk goes back to playing regularly. Hickey was out a good chunk of the season. The only "major" change is Leddy. But Devon Toews is basically the same player and Sebastian Aho (the other one lol) has enough experience where he could play bottom pairing minutes.

In two or three years the core shown (plus maybe Wilde) will be every bit as good as Potvin-Morrow, Jonsson-Langevin, Persson-Lane.

1) The picks you are getting back for those trades are way too high. Leddy for just a 2nd, Hickey for a late 3rd maybe but you aren't getting that from VAN. Maybe throw in NYI 4th rounder and you'll get the 3rd.
2) For Ladd deal you now are missing out on a first rounder. You could throw in maybe Dal Colle or some other middling prospect to make it work most likely, not 100% aware of NYI prospects
3) Beauvillier deal is too short on cap hit but you have cap space to fix it, wont harp on this too much.
4) And most importantly, you now have 3 rookie defensemen on your blue line, and defense was the reason you guys made the playoffs this year. Does getting Marner provide you with enough offense to completely slash your defense, also with a question mark in Varlamov as your starter? Personally, with the Metro in the state that it is in now, this roster misses the playoffs year 1 for sure, and most likely in year 2 cuz you're hoping on MAJOR improvement from your young player. Already at this point you are giving away 2 top 10 picks, which if we wanna go by your 2015-2018 example would be Rantanen (Already comparable if not better than Marner) and Jost, as well as whatever first rounders you get in years 3 and 4. I like the ideas and the moves are close to even in most cases, however if you're gonna blow up your area of strength I don't think its worth it.

1) Highly disagree on Leddy. A 2nd round pick is a joke. You need to look beyond the +/- of two seasons about because Doug Weight's system sucked. Leddy is a very good defenseman. Hickey we can throw in the 4th if needed but I doubt it.
2) Maybe a prospect is added but not much. A 1-2-3 for a rebuilding team is plenty enough assets IMO
3) Beau can be worked on. As mentioned above, he's inconsistent. Don't think it's too far off. Maybe a few hundred thousand depending on length.
4) There is one rookie defenseman. Toews played EXCEPTIONAL last season and Aho has NHL experience. Dobson is the only one who hasn't suited up in an NHL game. The strength in our defense comes from Trotz structure. Still plenty of talent back there to make it work. The only real subtraction is Leddy. But Toews plays a very similar game to him anyways,

Extension of 4 - people said the same thing about Lehner. It's the defensive structure and Mitch Korn's coaching that made Lehner so great (in addition to him being sober - not discounting that). Do I love the Varlamov contract? No, it's too long. But I think he'll be good for at least the next two seasons. Next year Ilya Sorokin is coming over and will be a starter soon enough. Varlamov is the backup mentor/friend at that point. No way this team misses the playoffs year 1. It's a better team than last season and they won a round.

Interesting, but here's the thing. The next 2 drafts will be like the 2015 draft all over again, LOADED with talent, so theres a chance of getting some stud late in the first round although it is chance. And if Toronto cant get their butts past the first round then those picks will not be past 25, especially if they lose all their guys next year, especially on D bc Reilly is the only dman they got signed past next year

I hear what you're saying but what does that have anything to do with the Islanders? If Toronto keeps the picks for themselves or trades them for other assets that isn't NYI's problem or care. Even in a deep draft things are still a crap shoot. Ask Anaheim if they regret taking Jacob Larsson with Sebastian Aho still on the board that year. Toronto, or whoever, is completely reliant on their own staff to make the right draft choice. Doesn't make a difference to NYI after the picks are transferred

Im old but I see it as three first rounders for Marner if your getting one for Leddy. Maybe I missed it being traded away in one of your deals sorry if I did.

oops my bad going to Ottawa to move Ladd sorry

1. I think Leddy is a good number 3 defenseman that can play top line minutes if needed. Is that a first AND a second to me? Definitely not, however just a second is a bit low for him I agree. A mid round first makes more sense (15-18 range preferably), and anything more than that is generous, especially in a "player-for-pick" deal.
2. What i meant is that you aren't getting a first and a second in the leddy deal, so ill revise it: currently the deal is 2021 1st (MTL), 2020 3rd (VAN), and Ladd for a 7th. After looking at the Marleau trade again, this seems like a fair trade without giving up a prospect. Marleau > Ladd, so you gave up a 3rd for a 7th instead of a 7th for a 6th. In total, point 1 and 2 don't really matter as long as the Ladd for whatever picks you gain in the trade go towards getting rid of Ladd
3. Yeah id have Beau in the 2 mil range, give or take a few hundred thousand, like I said you have the cap space as long as clutterbuck stays on IR (don't know that situation at all but seems like a red flag unless you bury him). Would be curious to see how much cap space you have if he was in the minors instead of IR.
4. Toews has a little over 50 games played in the NHL, Aho only had about 20 (in 2017/2018 i might add), and Mayfield spent the majority of the season on the third pair. You are expecting a career bottom pair player (Mayfield) to be able to step up and play the second pair with Toews, who at only 50 games is still a rookie in my book. To me, you're still a rookie until you have 2 full seasons under your belt, ESPECIALLY as a d-man. And finally, Aho played sheltered minutes on the third pair with a veteran. As is, you are playing him with Dobson and expect him to take on a lot heavier load than he probably should be. Young defenseman need time to perculate in the minors before they are ready, and its better to bring them in slowly rather than all at once. Dobson i am 99% sure should spend time in the AHL, at least a years worth. Aho might be ready to make the jump based on his stats from last year, I'll give you that, however expecting both him and Toews to be able to step in and fulfill the same role instantly without hiccups is asking a lot. With how the metro is, I don't see that team making the playoffs even if you put Dobson in the minors and slot boychuk in. Maybe not a top 10 pick team but definitely not a playoffs team. Year 2 they might be able to get in.

4. TLDR: I actually researched Toews and Aho and while they most likely will be better than I originally thought, I still believe they will have rookie struggles and the team will miss the playoffs. I still believe Dobson should not be in the NHL in 19-20, and doing so will hinder his development.

Appreciate the thought out response. A rarity sometimes on the website. It's definitely a young defense - no disputing that. But I do think the system Trotz asks them to play in will make it easier on young players. Is it a risk? Absolutely. But overall I think this team is better off than they were last season and that young defensive core will grow nicely together.