Quoting: Bcarlo25
a draft pick is not a player. It's a draft pick. The value of a draft pick is not attached to the player picked. the 20th overall pick still has the value of, a 20th overall pick. Let's go use some real examples here, I'm just going to use them from my favorite team, but I'm sure there are millions of them.
Bruins trade a 5th round pick for a young prospect named Adam McQuaid. McQuaid played a long time for the Bruins, winning a stanley cup, and going to the finals in another year. That's an awesome trade! A 5th round pick for that? Fist pump, slam dunk trade. Well, that 5th rounder turned out to be Jamie Benn. Did the bruins get robbed? No. They didn't trade Jamie Benn. They traded a 5th rounder. The bruins traded Dougie Hamilton for a 1st and two 2nds. Personally, I thought the return sucked in actual value, but if the bruins picked three busts, which they very well might have despite Jeremy Lauzon looking pretty good, does it mean they got nothing for him? No, they got a 1st and two 2nds which is a ton of value.
Getting the best player in the trade means winning the trade has no merit, mainly because there are very few hockey trades these days. In a trade like Seth Jones for Ryan Johanson, yes, whoever gets the best player wins, and holy hell did Columbus win that trade. In a trade of futures for a rental, ya, the caps got the best player in the erat forsberg deal, but that was a disaster.
Winning a trade is based on a ton of factors. Salary cap, longevity, organizational depth, futures, salary structure, future tradability, on ice production etc etc. Saying whoever gets the best player wins is just silly, and has zero value.
"Draft picks are not players" tell me one thing besides players you could get by using draft picks. Just one. Please enlighten me. Bag of pucks? Food stamps? Used jock strap maybe?
You're still getting a player. Plain and simple. Whether or not you develop that player is up to the team. Whether or not you invest in what he might become, is up to the team. But in the end, you get one thing and one thing only: PLAYERS.
And by 5th round pick becoming Jamie Benn.. I'm not talking historical. Im talking about PERCENTAGE of drafting an NHLer.
And within that, I'm talking about quality of Early, Mid, and Late picks within every round. An Early Round 1st rounder is different from a Late Round 1st rounder no matter who it turns out to be. You judge draft pick value in a trade NOW, not who that pick became 5 years down the road.
In the real world, teams judge trade pick value by looking at standings. Edmonton's 1st rounder is worth more than Boston's 1st rounder because it most likely is a lottery pick. In actuality, Boston's 1st rounder is closer in value to Edmonton's 2nd rounder. The earlier the pick, the bigger the remaining talent pool, the better the chance at a better player. How that player develops is irrelevant. McDavid could today decide to only eat twinkies everyday and turn into a 300 pounder. Teams would not shame Edmonton for having picked him first.
Consequently, when you have these highly touted draft hopefuls coming up, the value of picks also fluctuate based off of who is available. A 2012 Draft pick was trash compared to 2015 because 2015 had a chance at McDavid.
Quoting: Miguelicious
Best Value, by virtue of a player's ceiling, experience level, gas left in the tank.. all of that obviously goes into determining the player's value in a trade.
Obviously they fluctuate according to supply & demand, current health & morale, etc.
A 45 year old Crosby isnt better than an 18 year old top 5 pick.
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Absolutely horrifies me as to how the above is too hard for you to grasp.
2013 Erat vs 2013 Forsberg; Forsberg is the better player due to ceiling; Erat had nothing left in the tank.
2015 Edmonton 1st overall pick vs 2015 Tyler Seguin; 1st rounder still the better player as that was always going to be McDavid
2015 Buffalo 2nd overall pick vs 2015 Tyler Seguin; 1st rounder still the better player as that was always going to be Eichel
2010 Crosby vs 2010 Edmonton 1st overall; Crosby obviously is better
2007 Dallas 4th rounder vs 2007 3 5th rounders; obviously the 4th rounder only had a better chance at becoming an NHLer no matter who the 3 5ths became
2020 4th round pick vs Matt Benning; obviously Benning since he's an NHLer vs a guy who only has a marginal chance of making it.
2019 Edmonton 1st Rounder vs 2019 Bruins 1st Rounder; obviously Edmonton even at the start of the year.
Best Player is the deal wins the deal, is STILL relevant.
Percentages play a HUGE role.