Leafs don’t have to wait for the start of the season. They can put Horton & Clarkson on LTIR tomorrow if they wanted. Gaining them 10+ Miliion in Cap space + the 10% teams can go over the cap in the summer.

I have a quick question, so when you have a player on LTIR thier salary counts but you are allowed to go over the exact amount as the players on LTIR or is a set amount you can go over for each player?

players earn when on LTIR*

https://www.tsn.ca/video/johnson-explains-how-re-acquiring-clarkson-s-contract-affects-marner~1736257

https://twitter.com/earlschwartz27/status/1153799226175848454?s=21

My understanding is that, for teams to gain the benefits of adding a guy to LTIR, you want to be as close to the cap ceiling as possible. So, just because they Had Horton and maybe even Hyman/Dermott available to put on LTIR, bringing in Clarkson's contract allows them to maximize the amount they are allowed to exceed the cap when they actually put them on LTIR.

I can't remember how much the leafs were under the cap ceiling for, but I think they had about $77m committed before adding anyone to LTIR. That's 4.5m below the ceiling. Which would mean that, if they added Horton to LTIR, they'd only be able to go $800k over the $81.5m cap (Accurable Cap Space Limit = 81.5m - 4.5 = $77m). So once the team operates above $77m they would then have $5.3m (horton's aav) in salary relief.

The basic premise is you want your cap hit to be as close to the cap ceiling before adding guys to LTIR as it creates more relief above the $81.5m ceiling.

Technically it might give the Leaf a little cap flexibility if Marner signs after the season starts. But by acquiring Clarkson (and Horton) it sorta blows out the silly theory that teams are limited to 81.5m for all 23 active players plus LTIR..
The other little benefit the Leafs get is 4th rounder for Sparks and it opens up another roster spot. Leafs have now "just" 5 pro goalies and PTO Niewerth..for a total of six.

This isn’t how ltir works. The amount the can exceed the upper limit is a function of their cap hit the day they are placed on ltir.


This is explained here: https://www.CapFriendly.com/ltir-faq

I don't really see how this matters.
The cap space is fluid through out the season and so is the LTIR.
Truth be told the real issue here is accrued space. But that shouldn't have really been a problem unless they are admitting they can't sign Marner before the start of the season and you are looking at a prolonged hold out. Because Marner's contract would have put them at the cap limit to begin with.So there is no need to bring anyone in to "get as close to the cap as possible" as they would have already been there.
What I see here is that TOR is admitting Marner is gonna hold out. Because why the hell else would you need to worry about "getting closer to the cap" if he was going to sign. You'd already be there.

But a team isn't forced to place a injured player on LTIR if they don't need the relief, such as the Sens having MacArthur and Gaborik on the IR keeping their cap hit against themselves to reach the salary minimum.

Just 5 Pro Goalers?

Andersen.
Hutchinson.
Kaskisuo.
Woll.
Scott.
Garteig. -Growlers signed:
Zhukov. -Growlers signed:

PTO: Neuvirth. who should beat out Hutchinson.

& access to anyone who is put on waivers, if they aren’t happy w Hutchinson & Neuvirth during camp.

Because of the RFA rules about signing after the start of the season...the longer Marner holds out the more screwed the leafs will be. Remember what happened with Nylander. His cap hit last year was $10m+ but moves to under $7m for this year (and every other year moving forward). I'd have to imagine the leafs are prepared to let him sit the year if he's not signed before the start of the year because the amount of cap they need to have if he holds out long term will far exceed the $10.55m from Horton and Clarkson

This was my point.
If they expected to sign marner none of this mess would even matter. They already know he's going to hold out.
It's not a matter of if anymore. He's going to. They know it they are decided on it. And the 10.55m is probably right there are the number they are willing to accept. Which is what I have been saying all along. The 1st and 3rd qualifying offer, which I'm sure they already have an offer for, and is not worth losing the player for.

This is already written in stone. You can see how this is going to go from a mile away.

I think we're on opposite ends of our interpretation here. I think the leafs have about $10.5m AAV to offer Marner right now...in the summer. If Marner agrees to the exact same contract in November when there's maybe 135 days left in the season...that $10.5m AAV will be closer to $13.4m AAV this year. So I don't get how this trade implies they know he's going to hold out when they won't have the cap space needed the longer into the season it goes.

Just to clarify this, nylanders cap hit was 6.96m last season. The 10m+ was his cap hit over a full season which was then prorated to days missed. The exaggerated cap hit is put in place to stop teams from signing players later in the season to circumvent cap. Marner can be signed at any point before the cutoff so long as the leafs can afford his aav. (Roughly).

Example: marner misses 20% of the season and is signed for 10m. His cap hit would be 12.5m but would be prorated to 80%... 10m. This isn’t exact and depends on salary/bonuses but is a fair quick guideline.

This right here is why.

Think you're right on. Maybe Vegas puts Sparks on waivers and the Leafs claim him Players that have signed ECHL contracts are eligible to play in the AHL but not the NHL. Interesting what they are going to do with Scott and Holl. They have to see a lot of ice time but would love to see them with the Marlies instead of the Growlers. Better coaching, better opposition etc.

I'm not sure they know he is going to sit out, but I'm sure they know he's threatening to do so for the reasons that you, Po and Juice have outlined.

It seems like a bit of a bully tactic by Ferris in that the threat of holding out would have put the leafs in an awkward position given the potential for an inflated cap hit, which the leafs couldn't afford prior to acquiring Clarkson.

Previous to this trade Ferris could push their demand and say if you don't give is AM money he'll sit until you get dinged for that cap hit anyways. The leafs respond with this move and essentially said 10.55M is the max offer (like you state) and anything more and Marner can sit or hes free to sign and OS and they take the 4 firsts.

So, what's the benefit to Marner holding out/threatening to sit now? Seems to me like he either comes in at under 10.55M and remains a leaf, he sits (doesn't change the offer from the leafs and Marner loses his cushy endorsement deals this uear), he signs an OS and the leafs take the 4 firsts (an empty threat, imo) or he requests a trade to somewhere where he thinks he can get more.. I'd say the leafs have Ferris boxed in pretty good at this point.

Your move, Paul..

Haha. Wtf. I tell ya, if you’re not on this site for a couple months you miss a new CBA wrinkle.

Wasn’t nylander’s AAV for this year supposed to be lower?

For the record, I don't think his signing has anything to do with is endorsement deals.
If he's signed endorsement deals they are completely separate to anything with his current contract status. I don't think there is an agent out there that would link the two. It's not good business. Much like players with shoe deals get their money no matter what team they are on.

That's fair, and you're probably right. It's just that I doubt Marner's brand would have as much marketability if he sat for the year.

If he decides to sit for the year he'd be taking a hit beyond foregoing a years salary. I can't see the benefit to Marner at this point if he decides to go that route.

I don't think it effects his marketability as far as promotions. A company like apple isn't going to walk away from him over this or not use his commercial.
As for his contract, being worth it or not depends on the end result.
I think the sticking point at this juncture is not the 10.5 number. I think both sides realize that is where this is headed as I don't think anyone is giving up 4 1st for him. I think it's the term. My guess is Marner wants 4 years. That's the fastest way to FA for him. Toronto wants longer and Marner's camp is probably telling them you have to pay more for longer.
The benefit for Marner on the term is obvious. He becomes a FA after 7 years of play, at 26, He can then go where ever he wants aka the highest bidder. He also becomes a FA again at 33, which he may or may not be able to get another decent money deal at that age. But if they are telling him 6-7 year deal, then he hits fa at 28 or 29 and he's done probably got less value and that will be the last contract he probably signs because he'll be 35-36 at the end of it.
So it makes sense for him to hold out for 4 years as the total number probably works out more in his favor that way as he makes more faster and can probably get what would be a decent money deal for 2-3 years at 33.

That's fair, he can hold out if he wants to, that's his right.. no one is forcing him to sign something he doesn't want to.

But if he does hold out it will have a hit on his brand. Guys that play ball hockey in the GTA or hockey in the KHL don't have alot of endorsement deals in North America

I agree, it doesn't help his future promotional signings. But most of the deals he's already in are probably long term deals.
On top of it NHL players don't make a ton on endorsements anyway. I read not long ago McDavid makes like $4 million, Crosby like 4.5-5 million. Everyone else is a far ways back on that. It's not like the NBA where there are 100 million shoe deals.
It is what it is. I don't think that's the thing that's going to make or break anything. He will sign, he's not going to make anything near what he will make in the KHL or anywhere else.
But the question is more when will Toronto cave on term. Which they will. It's stupid not to. If they let him sit, they run the risk of him coming in out of sync like Nylander did and destroying an opportunity for a cup run. They have just as much to lose.