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Forums/Armchair-GM

Feeling the RFA crunch

Created by: Jungo
Team: 2019-20 Calgary Flames
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 24, 2019
Published: Jul. 24, 2019
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Sam Bennett just signed for 2 years @ 2.55M per season. Here's hoping we can do Rittich for the same or less.

Whatever Tkachuk Signs for, i bet it will be around to 40-44 Million mark. Highest paying contracts in flames history was Monahan @ 44.625M. (but that was over 7 years.) Tkachuk will probably favor the Auston Matthews 5 Year deal.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$2,550,000
5$8,000,000
1$800,000
2$2,550,000
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
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2021
Logo of the CGY
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Logo of the CGY
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Logo of the CGY
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2022
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
20$81,500,000$73,011,709$0$482,500$8,488,291
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$6,750,000$6,750,000
LW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$6,375,000$6,375,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 4
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$4,850,000$4,850,000
C, RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$8,000,000$8,000,000
RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$5,350,000$5,350,000
C
NTC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$4,300,000$4,300,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$5,250,000$5,250,000
LW, RW
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$3,125,000$3,125,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$1,250,000$1,250,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$1,675,000$1,675,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$2,550,000$2,550,000
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$800,000$800,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$3,375,000$3,375,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$4,650,400$4,650,400
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$2,750,000$2,750,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$1,237,500$1,237,500
LD
UFA - 5
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$3,857,143$3,857,143
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$894,166$894,166 (Performance Bonus$425,000$425K)
LD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$2,550,000$2,550,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$755,833$755,833 (Performance Bonus$57,500$58K)
RD
UFA - 1

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Jul. 24, 2019 at 6:54 p.m.
#1
Just Keep Swimming
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Amazing that people think they can offer Tkachuk that and turn around and say marner gets 11 or Some ****. Tkachuk has played with worse forwards on his line his entire career and has only ever been ~10 points behind Mitch every season while being gritty and all that ****.
Tkachuk will get ~500k less than marner with 1 additional year
Jul. 24, 2019 at 6:56 p.m.
#2
harry
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Quoting: Random2152
Amazing that people think they can offer Tkachuk that and turn around and say marner gets 11 or Some ****. Tkachuk has played with worse forwards on his line his entire career and has only ever been ~10 points behind Mitch every season while being gritty and all that ****.
Tkachuk will get ~500k less than marner with 1 additional year


marner has 50 more points over first 3 seasons and has a higher celing then tkachuk
Jul. 24, 2019 at 6:59 p.m.
#3
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Quoting: harrisonwright19
marner has 50 more points over first 3 seasons and has a higher celing then tkachuk


It isn't as high as 50, and marner is better. The point is that they aren't so far apart as to justify this kind of difference of opinion. That is unless you are willing to say that a 20 point difference each year (tops) is worth 3-4 million (hint: it isnt).
Jul. 24, 2019 at 7:00 p.m.
#4
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so CGY will have a second buyout window with two fillings so buyout Stone makes sense
Jul. 24, 2019 at 7:04 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: Random2152
Amazing that people think they can offer Tkachuk that and turn around and say marner gets 11 or Some ****. Tkachuk has played with worse forwards on his line his entire career and has only ever been ~10 points behind Mitch every season while being gritty and all that ****.
Tkachuk will get ~500k less than marner with 1 additional year


Marner shouldn't get more than 9.5M. He's good but not 8 figures good yet. His daddy is the reason he will get anywhere close to 11 mill
Jul. 24, 2019 at 7:15 p.m.
#6
harry
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Quoting: Random2152
It isn't as high as 50, and marner is better. The point is that they aren't so far apart as to justify this kind of difference of opinion. That is unless you are willing to say that a 20 point difference each year (tops) is worth 3-4 million (hint: it isnt).


its exactly 50, marner is worth 10.5 if matthews is worth 11.6 IMO
Jul. 24, 2019 at 7:34 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: Random2152
It isn't as high as 50, and marner is better. The point is that they aren't so far apart as to justify this kind of difference of opinion. That is unless you are willing to say that a 20 point difference each year (tops) is worth 3-4 million (hint: it isnt).


Guy who led his team in two of the last three seasons and nearly hit a hundred points last season is worth much more than the gritty guy who has been 3 and 4th respectively.
Jul. 24, 2019 at 7:54 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: SmugTkachuk
Guy who led his team in two of the last three seasons and nearly hit a hundred points last season is worth much more than the gritty guy who has been 3 and 4th respectively.


Interesting. And not to jump in out of turn, but I'm curious on your take of player value vs contract value relative to team out put and cap structure?

Seriously, if a Marner for Tkachuck swap ever happened, in some theoretical way, I'd bet the Flames only add something very small to offset the difference. As a leaf fan I'd be curious about that.. I could see how Tkachuck could have a big impact with the leafs given team needs.

I think Random has a solid point, too. The contract difference between these two ex knight linemates probably won't be that much, imo. And Rantanen, Point and Aho probably land close as well. Also curious to see where Connor and Laine land. The grading of this group of players is fairly subjective
Jul. 24, 2019 at 8:04 p.m.
#9
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Edited Jul. 24, 2019 at 8:17 p.m.
Quoting: harrisonwright19
its exactly 50, marner is worth 10.5 if matthews is worth 11.6 IMO


No Marner is not. Matthews scored a ton those points with 3rd liners as wingmen, is a centre, and drives a line + a whole host of other reasons (like that goals are worth more).
If Nylander is worth 6.9, Marner is worth 8.75.
Matthews is in the McDavid conversation (just to be clear McDavid > Matthews all day long). Marner is not and it really isn't close. Here is Marner vs McDavid (edited by the creator to show McDavid's true value)
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EARYWCnXsAARBbp?format=jpg&name=900x900

And again, 50 points over 3 seasons is 16.6 points per year. That is worth about 700k-1M going by other contracts. If Tkachuk is worth 8, Marner is worth 8.75 (which is correct. My grievance is those who will ignore all the evidence and say he is worth more while keeping Tkachuk at a fair price).

Quoting: SmugTkachuk
Guy who led his team in two of the last three seasons and nearly hit a hundred points last season is worth much more than the gritty guy who has been 3 and 4th respectively.


The only reason he ever lead the Leafs in points is that Matthews played with 3rd liners who couldn't produce in a pinch to save their life and his injuries and Marner was propped up by JT. Way to ignore all context to 'prove' a point. Matthews is the best 5v5 goal scorer in the league and drives a line while Marner does not.
As above, 3rd and 4th respectively is an average of 16.6 points behind playing with worse line mates. Even if we don't account for quality of teammates (the most important 'quality of' stat) 16-17 points is worth league minimum. So take Tkachuk and add 700k.

Hence Tkachuk being Marner -500k + 1 year in my first comment.
Jul. 24, 2019 at 8:08 p.m.
#10
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Edited Jul. 24, 2019 at 8:21 p.m.
Quoting: blowing_the_zone

I think Random has a solid point, too. The contract difference between these two ex knight linemates probably won't be that much, imo. And Rantanen, Point and Aho probably land close as well. Also curious to see where Connor and Laine land. The grading of this group of players is fairly subjective


That was my whole point of the original post.
Tkachuk will be Marner's term equivalent salary -500k + 1 year.
I did not specify what a Marner deal was here. If you think Tkachuk should get 5@8 (I personally have him as 6@8.5 +/- 500k), you cannot possibly justify paying Marner more than 9 (+/- 500k) especially with Aho 5@8.45.
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Jul. 24, 2019 at 8:22 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: Random2152
That was my whole point of the original post.
Tkachuk will be Marner's term equivalent salary -500k + 1 year.
I did not specify what a Marner deal was here. If you think Tkachuk should get 5@8 (I personally have him as 6@8.5), you cannot possibly justify paying Marner more than 9 (especially with Aho 5@8.45).


Yep. I think this is the rub of it. The way I see it is these rfas can't have it both ways. Contracts are either based on league comparables or they're based on comparables to output relative to their team.

So, Marner makes a case that he comes in comparable to AM. Fine. Tkachuk then makes Marner his comparable? Doesn't make sense to me.. by that logic he should be compared to his Calgary teammates and he'll end up coming in at Johnny Hockey/Sean Monohan money/percentage of cap.

This logic is kinda silly and if Marner didn't play for the leafs this argument would be laughed off as it should.

But if the argument is valid, then I'd trade Marner at AM money for Tkachuck at Gaudreau money all day. Of course, value doesn't work like that...
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Jul. 25, 2019 at 3:25 p.m.
#12
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The problem is the Matthews Contract is way overpriced, and that's why people think that Marner is a 8 figure player, because they lot them in the same category, and because its Toronto....

Matthews - 11'634'000 / 73 points last season = $159000 per point (way overpaid) ($132'000 per goal if you say he plays a full season at the same scoring pace)
Tavares - 11'000'000 / 88 points last season = $125000 per point (overpaid? as toronto likes to do)
Mcdavid - 12'500'000 /116 points last season = $107000 per point
Ovechkin - 9'538'462 / 89 points last season = $107000 per point
Kane - 10'500'000 / 110 points last season = $95000 per point
Crosby - 8'700'000 / 100 points last season = $87'000 per point (older contract)
Draisaitl - 8'500'000 / 105 points last season = $81000 per point (bargin)
Kucherov - 9'500'000 / 128 points last season = $74218 per point (wayyy bargin)
Gaudreau - 6'750'000 / 99 points last season = $68'000 per point (older contract)

Is it fair to say $100'000 per point is on pace for what most of these players are worth at the moment?

Marner - 9'200'000? / 92 points last season = $100'000 per point?
Tkachuk - 7'700'000? / 77 points last season = $100'000 per point?

i didnt even include some serious bargin players in there that throw the current metric out the window ( Marchand, Mackinnon, Stamkos, Barkov)

let me know of what you think of a standard cost per point metric?
Jul. 25, 2019 at 5:44 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: Jungo
The problem is the Matthews Contract is way overpriced, and that's why people think that Marner is a 8 figure player, because they lot them in the same category, and because its Toronto....

Matthews - 11'634'000 / 73 points last season = $159000 per point (way overpaid) ($132'000 per goal if you say he plays a full season at the same scoring pace)
Tavares - 11'000'000 / 88 points last season = $125000 per point (overpaid? as toronto likes to do)
Mcdavid - 12'500'000 /116 points last season = $107000 per point
Ovechkin - 9'538'462 / 89 points last season = $107000 per point
Kane - 10'500'000 / 110 points last season = $95000 per point
Crosby - 8'700'000 / 100 points last season = $87'000 per point (older contract)
Draisaitl - 8'500'000 / 105 points last season = $81000 per point (bargin)
Kucherov - 9'500'000 / 128 points last season = $74218 per point (wayyy bargin)
Gaudreau - 6'750'000 / 99 points last season = $68'000 per point (older contract)

Is it fair to say $100'000 per point is on pace for what most of these players are worth at the moment?

Marner - 9'200'000? / 92 points last season = $100'000 per point?
Tkachuk - 7'700'000? / 77 points last season = $100'000 per point?

i didnt even include some serious bargin players in there that throw the current metric out the window ( Marchand, Mackinnon, Stamkos, Barkov)

let me know of what you think of a standard cost per point metric?


I think it'd be fascinating to be a fly on the wall during rfa contract negotiations to see how both sides arrive at their number. Ufas would be different in that teams can just outbid each other based on wants/needs/ budget etc.

But with rfas you can bet that teams have all sorts of metrics that come into play based on what they prioritize and comparables from around the league. What you put together is a neat example of what one example could look like.

And then it just gets more complex from there. It's not hard to imagine that there's way, way more to it then how even the best posters here rationalize arguments for example contract numbers. Spreadsheets can be a wonderful and troubling tool for tracking things..
 
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