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Tampa Bay Lightning signed Andrei Vasilevskiy (8 Years / $9,500,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Jul 29 at 12:27
#51
First NY Then LA
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 7,330
Likes: 3,037
Quoting: KubaH
I said it right. Killorn has his NTC until the end of the 19/20 season, then he has M-NTC. Palat's M-NTC is starting year later.
Look at their contracts here on Capfriendly


No, CapFriendly says Killorn's NTC this year is absolute. Your first post said he had an M-NTC.
Jul 29 at 12:30
#52
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 62
Likes: 11
On the surface a little tough. Doesn’t look amazing for TBL. But it’s hard to lock up a goalie for that long, and compared to Bobrovski’s 10Mx7 this looks far better.
Jul 29 at 12:32
#53
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,516
Likes: 477
Quoting: Brian2016
He's much younger than Bob and Price and he'll have a lower cap hit. This deal is another excellent bargain in TBL. He'd easily command $12M AAV as a UFA.


The amounts that players could "easily get" as a UFA are getting pretty ridiculous.

Do you also believe that Vasilevskiy is "easily the 2nd most valuable player in the NHL" ???

They obviously don't mean the exact same thing due to cap growth ... but they're similar enough ... and the answer to both is no.
Jul 29 at 12:40
#54
#DisruptTheNight
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,988
Likes: 2,572
Well ****
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Jul 29 at 1:17
#55
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 112
Likes: 77
Quoting: drewjenks
There's one major problem with all these massive goalie contracts ...

Goaltender performance is ASTRONOMICALLY less predictable than player performance.

Imagine if McDavid stayed 100% healthy next year ... played a full 82 games ... and had a total of 30 points on the season.

That's goaltenders in a nutshell ... they can all go from a Vezina quality season to an average season (or worse) without warning.

Price has gone back and fourth like 4 times in his career (and he's the best goalie of the past decade).


This is exactly the way I look at it, goalies are just too unpredictable to spend this much on.

Goalies can have the biggest effect on their team, but because of how easily that effect can swing from positive to negative, it's hard to place this much value on them. Also, GMs pay for wins, goals against average and save percentage, but it's hard to strip away how much impact a goalie had on those stats versus the rest of their team. Even if you try and use some advanced metrics to try and tease out what a goalie contributes, those numbers can vary wildly from one year to the next.

I get that Vasilevsky performs well in the stats that generally get goalies big pay days, and he is a very good goalie, but I just don't think any goalie is enough better than the average to, or consistent enough, to justify this large of a commitment.

Also, it's may be a little unfair to goalies in general, but the reality is there are so many good goalies now that the average goalie is very good. Keeping the position flexible seems like a legitimate option unless you can be as lucky as Anaheim and have the best goalie in the league locked up for a very reasonable cap hit.
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Jul 29 at 1:21
#56
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 441
Likes: 128
It's like BriseBois pays no attention to my AGM comments.
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Jul 29 at 1:22
#57
BtZ's buttercup
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 2,684
Likes: 1,496
This is a problem for Tampa.

The term and the money.



Should have gone shorter term 100%.
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Jul 29 at 1:28
#58
Majors and minors
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 78
Likes: 13
8 yr, 76 mil, 59% sign bonus. not bad, you're thinking ahead. money becomes avail after this year (Callahan)
Jul 29 at 2:14
#59
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,516
Likes: 477
Quoting: CoraStorm
8 yr, 76 mil, 59% sign bonus. not bad, you're thinking ahead. money becomes avail after this year (Callahan)


So they get to drop Callahan's $5,800,000 ...

But that's the only contract (above $1,300,000) coming off the books next year ... so how is this money still "available" after re-signing:

Sergachev
Cernak
Cirelli
Joseph

I won't even ask about Points new contract ... but I am wondering who they're gonna trade to free up $10,000,000+/- in cap-space next year?

Killorn is the only player making over $2,000,000 that doesn't have a full NMC next year (and he still has a partial NTC).
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Jul 29 at 3:29
#60
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 3,123
Likes: 559
Quoting: mnet
Who are you to say hes overated when pro players say Carey price is the best goalie in the NHL ?


What has he done that warrants him making 10.5M a year. Pro player also used to say Quick was the hardest to score on. Same with Rinne. Hes never won a cup, never won a vezina, isn't the same caliber in the playoffs as other goalies. The only impressive thing he's done imo is win the Hart trophy.
Jul 29 at 3:40
#61
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 88
Likes: 16
Callahans contract is going on LTIR- so it wont count this year. And as good as Vasilevsky is... he isnt worth that much (neither is Price or Bob). I dont see how you can build a team with almost $10mil tied up in your goaltender. The cap crunch is already impacting their defensive corps- and its only going to get worse with this deal- and Points deal.
Jul 29 at 3:48
#62
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 46
Likes: 10
$9,500,000 for a goalie? Jeez, but at least he's better than Bobrovsky.
palhal liked this.
Jul 29 at 4:30
#63
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 28,555
Likes: 6,565
Edited Jul 29 at 9:08
Gee, I don't miND be contract, if you really think he's "your guy". But Tampa certainly is going to have serious cap issues next summer, and those NTC or even M NTCs are an issue.
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Jul 29 at 5:12
#64
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 928
Likes: 366
Quoting: KubaH
Only Alex Killorn has M-NTC, all other 3M+ players have NTC or NMC. IMO Killorn is now starting his last year in Tampa... And I won't be surprised if Point will be traded too... He cannot have a clause in his contract (he's under 27) and Cirelli has already showed a huge potential (39 points this year and he's still 22). Or what do you think? Somebody MUST go, but who?


They'll ask Palat and/or Johnson to waive IMO. And as you said, Killorn is entering his last season as a Bolt.
If BriseBois signed this deal already, it's because he already knows he can make it work with Point too. No way you see this re-signing already if Tampa FO isn't sure to work out a deal with Point.
Jul 29 at 5:50
#65
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 207
Likes: 90
Yikes. A contract like this for a goalie... I don't understand why GM's are handing those contracts tbh. Sure, he's a good goalie. But this good? He plays for arguably the most talented team in the league. And his playoffs performances aren't that impressive. If you compare it to Price and Bobrovsky it doesn't look that bad. But if you compare it to Gibson. Again, yikes.

Will be interesting to see how Tampa will manage the cap situation.
Jul 29 at 5:51
#66
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 2,634
Likes: 927
This is a terrible deal for Tampa

1. He's an RFA
2. He's in a tax free state (Equal to around 13 Million in Montreal)
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Jul 29 at 6:09
#67
Joined: Mar 2019
Posts: 981
Likes: 1,013
Vasi is an amazing goalie and and will show that but man...I feel the term killed this deal. Had it been a shorter term, the AAV would have come down but damn...
Good luck to Tampa with the cap crunch.

Maybe this comment is not for this thread but hey...if Vasi gets 9.5 what does Andersen get?

@Laudan, @Trickster you guys were convinced at 7.5
Are you guys sweating now? Lol
Trickster liked this.
Jul 29 at 7:27
#68
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 1,735
Likes: 716
Quoting: drewjenks
The amounts that players could "easily get" as a UFA are getting pretty ridiculous.

Do you also believe that Vasilevskiy is "easily the 2nd most valuable player in the NHL" ???

They obviously don't mean the exact same thing due to cap growth ... but they're similar enough ... and the answer to both is no.


Does anyone believe that Panarin is THE best player in the NHL? Because CBJ and NYI were both prepared to pay him as such.
Jul 30 at 1:32
#69
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 2,674
Likes: 1,054
Edited Jul 30 at 9:15
Quoting: oneX
Vasi is an amazing goalie and and will show that but man...I feel the term killed this deal. Had it been a shorter term, the AAV would have come down but damn...
Good luck to Tampa with the cap crunch.

Maybe this comment is not for this thread but hey...if Vasi gets 9.5 what does Andersen get?

@Laudan, @Trickster you guys were convinced at 7.5
Are you guys sweating now? Lol


with 4 x 7M that im giving him ? Not at all.....

Its age and Term thing

Vasilevsky 25y and 8 x 9,5M
Bobrovsky 30y and 7 x 10M
Price 30y and 8 x 10,5M

Andersen will be 32y at extension time, noone will give him more then 5y Term. And while TML are paying premium Contracts for Offence ( while SJS is doing it for Defence ), those weak D set-ups are really making him look like hot-cold Goalie, which wont work for him when asking for big bucks. But you will defenitelly be able to taunt me in three years if my predictions wont pass.....
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Jul 30 at 8:44
#70
Go Boltz! & Go Avs!
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 226
Likes: 51
This contract is really hard to evaluate, and will change each year.

So if tampa wins the cup next 8 years just once, this contract already good.
If the new TV deal in a few years will raise the cap to like 100 mill, the contract is also good'ish.

Right now its bad for the Lightning for sure, so i understand those "No votes" in the poll. For the next 2-3 years it will be hard to manipulate around the cap for our GM, but it's possible...
I expected 7-8 years @ 8 million, but after seeing the july 1st UFA signings, i had my expectations raised to around 10 mill and i was afraid we were gonna give him 8 years @ 11 mill (best paid goalie in league)

So: "Always look on the bright side of life" - at least its under 10 mill & we got the 8 years, which is positive for a top5 goalie in the NHL - and even if he drops out from top 5 in any of those 8 years, its still won't be the worst contract in the league...

So in my eyes, our new GM(byebye Yzerman) didn't pass his first big test, i would say under 8.5 mill and he passes...
So this is 9.5 mill, so next test incoming...

So now lets sign Point for less than this! Come on BriseBois, make it happen! Do we really need to wait another months? frown
Jul 30 at 1:38
#71
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 218
Likes: 29
Quoting: Hedman4Norris
Good money considering the cap will go up and vasi earned it all. Tampa your on the clock cap wise. Please bring it home and don't waste Victor hedman's career!

Please point. . . Take a bridge deal let there be a miracle. . . He's not taking one. . . Tampa . . . Please win the popcorn maker!


How is this good for Tampa? Gibson makes 3 mil per year less and is better. They are in cap hell for a few years. The cap wont rise to cover this contract.
Jul 30 at 2:47
#72
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 207
Likes: 90
Edited Jul 30 at 3:09
With all due respect, but Vasi wasn't a top 5 goalie in many areas last season. He won the Vezina because of the overall team performance. His Sv% and GAA are looking good, but the advanced stats are far from impressive. This season was arguably his best season, but still... Just look at his stats at even strength per Corsica Hockey. Among goalies with at least 2.000 minutes TOI at even strength (25 goalies), his low danger Sv% ranks 6th, his medium danger Sv% ranks 5th, high danger Sv% ranks 21nd. His GSAA is negative and his dSv% as well. Both ranks 13th btw.

Just compare his ES stats to Gibson, which is arguably the best comparison out there for Vasilevkiy.
Vasilevsky: LDSA: 637, LDSV%: 98.12; MDSA: 506, MDSV%: 92.49; HDSA: 228, HDSV%: 77.63; GSAA: -0.59; dSv%: -0.04.
Gibson: LDSA: 559, LDSV%: 97.85; MDSA: 510, MDSV%: 93.33; HDSA: 331, HDSV%: 82.18; GSAA: 18.67; dSV%: 1.33.

You can check the PK stats as well and you'll find the same thing. Tampa does a great job preventing high danger shots against, which is the reason why Vasi looks that good. And don't forget that Gibson is one of the best and most consistent goalies in the past 3 years and he has been the superior goalie over Vasilevskiy in any of those 3 years. Yet Gibson signed an 8x6.4M extension, 3.1M less per year. Gibson is a top 3 goalie in the past 2 years. Vasilevskiy will likely develop into a top 5 goalie soon. This guy is really talented, but if he was on a team like the Ducks, people wouldn't be this positive about him lol.

This is just an overpayment. Especially since they are a tax-free state. Tampa is already in trouble with the cap situation and this won't help. A lot of big long term contracts and Point will be the next one. Tampa really need a massive cap limit soon lol
Aug 10 at 1:37
#73
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 167
Likes: 21
Honestly considering what top-end goalies are getting, this is good. He is younger then both Price and Bob and they are paid more. You may not like paying goalies this but he for sure took less and if you want him you need to pay him market.
 
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