Forums/Armchair-GM

Marner bridge Healthy team

Created by: Chiller
Initial Creation Date: Aug 2, 2019
Published: Aug 2, 2019 at 3:42
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Team Explanation
Marner:eventually signs a bridge deal. Looking at his comparable of Kanes 2nd contract, Aho, let’s look at Kucherov instead. He took a bridge deal of 3years at 6.53%. For Mitch that would be 5.25AAV. That seems low as marner has done better and to offset some tax stuff 8.5%=7Mil AAV over the 3 year term

Honka : does not appear that good but maybe can learn and grow. Dallas gets a 4C who did well in his roll last year and better than their options.

Neiverth I assume gets the backup job on the PTO. Signs for league min

Shattenkirk doesn’t sign with the leafs as he wants to stay inNY somewhere so he goes to the isles or devils.

Leafs pick up stone for fun. Not that good but on a league min deal maybe he is serviceable. Has nhl experience and what about injuries if they happen and can be buried if need be.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Marner, Mitchell3$7,000,000
Honka, Julius2$1,000,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Stone, Michael1$700,000
Neuvirth, Michal1$700,000
Trades
TOR
  1. Honka, Julius [RFA Rights]
  2. 2022 6th round pick (DAL)
Additional Details:
Dallas wants to get rid of Honka. A RHD. Hasn’t produced much inNHL yet
DAL
  1. Gauthier, Frédérik
  2. 2020 4th round pick (TOR)
  3. 2020 7th round pick (SJS)
Additional Details:
Dallas gets a cheaper 4C this who was surprising good in his roll last year. Some pick swapping but I would upgrade:
4th becomes a 3rd if Honka plays 80 games over the next 2 seasons
Buyouts
  • Mikhail Grabovski: $0
Retained Salary Transactions
  • Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)
  • Robin Lehner: $1,100,000 (22%)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
TOR
CBJ
VGK
TOR
CAR
COL
EDM
STL
WPG
2021
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
2022
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
DAL
TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$80,172,199$0$0$1,327,801
Left WingCenterRight Wing
TOR
Moore, Trevor
$775,000
RW, LW
RFA - 2
TOR
Matthews, Auston
$11,634,000
C
UFA - 5
TOR
Nylander, William
$6,962,366
RW, LW
UFA - 5
TOR
Hyman, Zach
$2,250,000
LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Tavares, John
$11,000,000
C
NMC
UFA - 6
TOR
Marner, Mitchell
$7,000,000
RW
UFA - 6
TOR
Johnsson, Andreas
$3,400,000
LW
UFA - 4
TOR
Kerfoot, Alexander
$3,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 4
TOR
Kapanen, Kasperi
$3,200,000
RW
RFA - 3
TOR
Shore, Nick
$750,000
C
UFA - 1
TOR
Spezza, Jason
$700,000
C, RW
NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Agostino, Kenny
$737,500
LW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
TOR
Rielly, Morgan
$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 3
TOR
Ceci, Cody
$4,500,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Andersen, Frederik
$5,000,000
G
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Muzzin, Jake
$4,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
TOR
Barrie, Tyson
$2,750,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Neuvirth, Michal
$700,000
G
UFA
TOR
Dermott, Travis
$863,333
LD
RFA - 1
Honka, Julius
$1,000,000
RD
RFA
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Stone, Michael
$700,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Horton, Nathan
$5,300,000
RW
NMC NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Holl, Justin
$675,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Clarkson, David
$5,250,000
RW
NMC NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Petan, Nicolas
$775,000
LW, RW, C
RFA - 2

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Aug 2, 2019 at 5:49
#26
Thread Starter
Brewmaster
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 209
Likes: 86
Quoting: F3ruS
I think Honka is a lost case by now, so i wouldn't trade for him if i were Toronto's GM, same with Shattenkirk(regressing), i think in general D = needs big guys(6,0+ & 200+), who are super though to play against. I feel like Honka is just small+ not strong enough, althought west to east could be working, so you just never know. I guess if u think Liljegren and Sandin not ready, it could work for a year. For 2 years im not so sure...

BTW just a note, i heard Colorado fans saying Barrie = not a good defender, so dont be that sure that your D improved, until u havent seen him for 82 games.
If he gets the same role as Zaitsev.. it will be bad...(not me saying this, AVS fans who watched him play a lot) I have just turned into AVS fan for this year...(as my 2nd team)
i hope Babcock will play him in offensive shifts or smth like that most often... in my mind Muzzin+Barrie = perfect linemates, and that should be good...


Dubas has built his D the same way. Strong puck moving defensemen. Size doesn’t really matter as long as you can get the puck out with control. With this forward group it’s all you need.

Barrie is great at it, but you put him in a defensive roll I think he will be misused.

Babcocks line decisions worry me so much so that I don’t think he will maximize this team.
blowing_the_zone liked this.
Aug 2, 2019 at 6:27
#27
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 77
Likes: 13
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
Marner would take 3x8. Who would y’all say is the better player, Dybala or Lukaku?


DYBALA 100%
Aug 2, 2019 at 6:28
#28
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 33,276
Likes: 8,812
Quoting: Johnjohn
Report out today Marner turned down 3 x 10 million. Another **** show about to happen for Toronto
He needs to be traded before this gets worse or teach him a lesson and sit him for the year
7 million for 3 years is a joke. Everyone laughed when I said he will never take under 10.5 to 12 million depending on term
See you in December when dubas caves in again


That's a new rumour. The previous rumour was he turned down 10m X 8. Doesn't really matter what offer he turned down previously. If that's the best offer he gets, he may have to sign it or play ball this winter.
The very comparable Aho signed 8.5m X 5. No logical reason he gets that much more than that, despite the overpay for Matthews.
Chiller and blowing_the_zone liked this.
Aug 2, 2019 at 6:32
#29
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 33,276
Likes: 8,812
Quoting: BurgerBoss
Isn't he still looking for a Matthews deal? ($11,6Mx5)

I bet Marner wants that. But it's kinda meaningless. If Leafs let's say best offer is 10m X 5 tops, what are Marner's options, unless there is an offer sheet, the 11.6m just might be an unreachable dream.
blowing_the_zone liked this.
Aug 2, 2019 at 6:57
#30
Thread Starter
Brewmaster
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 209
Likes: 86
Quoting: palhal


Marner has no power. I agree he can ask for whatever he wants. But I want to make a million bucks. But I bet my boss won’t pay me that.
Facts
-no offersheet has been formally submitted
-rumors,if true, Marner declined some offers due to term And unsure if leafs matching because he wants to stay
-leafs now have 10.55Mil in reserve to go into the season with Mitch. That would mean a bridge deal but still.
-3-4 great comparables from Kane to Aho to Kucherov to point rumers have him around 9.25/6
-no arbitration rights
- saw nylander suck from missing camp and probably doesn’t want that

What power does he have other than hope they suck and Dubas caves...

He isn’t really showing that home town boy love

10x5 is a 1.5AAV overpay.... Aho signing is the starting points. Best comparable there for a long term. Kucherov great comparable for a short term.

I’d say mitch, 7Mil/3 or 9.5/7. Take it or sit and have fun. Negotiate in reality not in your fairyland
blowing_the_zone liked this.
Aug 2, 2019 at 6:57
#31
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: eleeko
DYBALA 100%


Agree, Lukaku can’t even control the ball.
Aug 2, 2019 at 6:58
#32
bhavikp27
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 7,249
Likes: 2,872
hahahahaha that's literally an insult in the face of Marner and he is taking $10M+
Aug 2, 2019 at 7:06
#33
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 3,419
Likes: 1,517
Quoting: bhavikp27
hahahahaha that's literally an insult in the face of Marner and he is taking $10M+


Do i hate when ignorants waveing around with $$ without a Term....
Chiller liked this.
Aug 2, 2019 at 7:18
#34
johnjohn
Joined: Feb 2019
Posts: 175
Likes: 32
Edited Aug 2, 2019 at 7:25
Blah blah blah
Aug 2, 2019 at 7:21
#35
Thread Starter
Brewmaster
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 209
Likes: 86
Quoting: Johnjohn
He just turn down 10 million for 3 years and now he is taking 7 mil lol . People are so dumb on this site


If he turned down 10 by 3 he is a moron for not accepting it and Dubas is a moron for offering it.

My numbers were based on facts and history. Which is how all contracts are given. Sure maybe a 8/3 slight overpayment sure, but 10. **** Marner ain’t that good
NR1203 and blowing_the_zone liked this.
Aug 2, 2019 at 7:33
#36
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 1,493
Likes: 430
Quoting: F3ruS
So you think paying Nylander 7 millon $$$ hurt Nylander more than the TML? I think the opposite, i think noone wants Nylander for 7 million right now in the league... except if they dont have to give up huge assests. Last year everybody would take Nylander for 7 mill $$$. It will be really interesting how that contract will work in long run. I'm hoping for a bounce back season for Nylander, but you just never know.
Will Babcock put Nylander with Matthews again? And i mean almost 95%+ of Icetime. Nylander + Matthews together. What you think about this?



U forget about the part with this statement, that Marner is still improving every year, and he didn't reach his peak yet. Or you think Marner peaked at like Age 21? I don't think so...


I was talking about a scenario where Marner doesn't sign by Dec 1, and sits the whole season. And I stand by what I said, Marner is a 60-70 point player without JT.
Chiller liked this.
Aug 2, 2019 at 7:34
#37
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 3,419
Likes: 1,517
Quoting: Johnjohn
Report out today Marner turned down 3 x 10 million. Another **** show about to happen for Toronto
He needs to be traded before this gets worse or teach him a lesson and sit him for the year
7 million for 3 years is a joke. Everyone laughed when I said he will never take under 10.5 to 12 million depending on term
See you in December when dubas caves in again


They supposedly offered him 8 x 10M....and now they went with 3 x 10M.......must be bunch of idiots in that Office tho......

Think again.....
Aug 2, 2019 at 7:37
#38
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 1,493
Likes: 430
Quoting: BurgerBoss
One thing you haven't note is that TOR is pretty much forced to sign Marner before the season starts, because just like in Nylander's case, if the contract is signed after the season has started, the cap hit for the first year is higher than for the rest of the contract.

If Marner is unsigned after October, or even November, they can pretty much give in on signing him on that season. Even if he'd take a 8x3 bridge deal, the first year cap hit is going to be closer to $10M which they simply can't afford without making some moves.

This is why I think there's some teams making big offers for him just before the season begins - in order to force TOR making a quick decision.


That's where the Clarkson deal comes in. I'm not a cap genius and I don't understand all the specifics, but the likely scenario is that Leafs will keep one of Horton/Clarkson off LTIR if Marner doesn't sign by opening night, and place him on LTIR when Marner signs, where the LTIR will give the Leafs more space (since it helps more for teams that are up against the cap). The whole point of that trade was to give the Leafs more flexibility in case Marner's stalemate drags on into the season.
justaBoss and blowing_the_zone liked this.
Aug 2, 2019 at 7:41
#39
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 1,493
Likes: 430
Quoting: Johnjohn
Report out today Marner turned down 3 x 10 million. Another **** show about to happen for Toronto
He needs to be traded before this gets worse or teach him a lesson and sit him for the year
7 million for 3 years is a joke. Everyone laughed when I said he will never take under 10.5 to 12 million depending on term
See you in December when dubas caves in again


Dubas didn't cave in December. Nylander signed a good contract (Kevin freaking Hayes got more). Matthews' deal is the problem, both since it's too short for the AAV and since it gives Marner leverage.
blowing_the_zone liked this.
Aug 2, 2019 at 8:20
#40
Go Wings Go
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 27,193
Likes: 5,802
laugh No way in hell Marner accepts a 3 x 7 deal, He's not signing for less then what Nylander took.
Aug 2, 2019 at 8:37
#41
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 2,132
Likes: 1,540
Quoting: Chiller
I agree Marner willingly accepting is rough but he needs to start negotiating in reality here. Maybe Dubas caves a bit but marner also saw what happened to Nylander and if I was him I would make sure I am there for training camp. If he truly wants to be a leaf he’s gotta sign fairly right. He can make millions more on all his commercials n stuff. Sigh


I think your point about negotiating in reality here is key. There's nothing really to back up Marner's contract ask except agent bully tactics, the threat of sitting out or the threat of an OS that hasn't materialized yet.

If it comes down to it and he refuses to negotiate in good faith based on league comparables I'd rather they let him sit for the year than sign him to something outrageous.
palhal and Chiller liked this.
Aug 2, 2019 at 10:46
#42
johnjohn
Joined: Feb 2019
Posts: 175
Likes: 32
The best thing for the whole league is to let him sit for a year. Call his bluff and then trade him in the off season
I hope the Toronto fans boo his ass every chance they get . Greedy local pos .
Aug 3, 2019 at 7:15
#43
Go Boltz! & Go Avs!
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 452
Likes: 96
Edited Aug 3, 2019 at 7:21
Alright folks, i have avoided for a couple of weeks the lots of news about Marner's contract, but now i dived deep into it.
So his agent turned down so far:
10-11 mill $$$ @ 8 years
10 mill $$$ @ 3 years


From the newest article it seems, they are(Marner's agent) not accepting anything over 5 years. However the problem is that Toronto doesn't want to give Marner 5 years, because of the Matthews contract.
So 5,(6),7,8 years are basically done at this point, unless Toronto willing to give ~ 11 mill+, which seems like not the case for now from these around ~ 10 mill offers at various years, they just want to avoid anything over 11mill, and its understandable.
11 mill @ 6 years = overpayment, and what if Marner's agent says no to that as well. So in the end they should offer 11.6 mill @ 6 years? Hell no, thats almost Matthews contract, so for Marners agent = Colossal win.

So lets examine 4 years = UFA = BIG NO from toronto

So all that's left is 1,2,3 years:
1 year seems silly , so next year they start this again, jeez, hell no. tears of joy
2 years = little better but i think its still not that much, and Marner's agent for 2 years would need to accept even less money, since more years = more money in general. So i think 2 years seems unlikely at this point, but not impossible.

Which brings us to the most likely scenario:
3 years Bridge deal & RFA status after the contracts is expired = negotiations starting again. unsure

So now about the $$$, they don't want to give 11 million, so 10.3-10.8 millions between.

Next offer from Toronto: 10.2-10.4 mill @ 3 years in August. But i think Marner's agent says, no thanks.
Next offer after that 10.4-10.6 mill @ 3 years after September. Probably still no from Marner's agent. Because they really like the 5 years term. So they say no to 3 years unless its really close to Matthews's money.

But here comes the problem, Toronto would need to make moves, to offer more since they have roughly that cap space if i have correct informations from these LTIR cap space. But a little help from additional injuries: +Dermott+Hyman, also LTIR.
So maybe they can offer one last try before season starts(or soon after season starts): ALL-IN from Toronto, take it or leave it deal type:

~ 10.75 million $$$ @ 3 years

That's my current guess, and it would be not good for Toronto, and a huge-huge win for Marner's agent, since Kucherov couple years ago after 60-70 points season signed a " 4.8 mill @ 3 years" bridge deal.
Let's add inflation, more points and RFA market tendency changes(players want more money, than 3 years ago at young age RFA status), and taxes in toronto. That would be a fair deal: 9 mill @ 3 years.
So from 4.8 million $$$ ---> 10.75million $$$, do u guys see how crazy is this number? It was only 3 years ago!!! And it looks like its not far from reality at this point.

So one last possiblity, around october maybe Dubas says yes to 5-6 years, to save trouble with the 3 years contract in 2022 to renegotiate again: Then they offer a respectable 10.9 million offer. And agent also says yes to 6 years instead of 5.
10.9 mililon $$$ @ 6 years- so they get 1 more year after Matthews's contract expire. But Marner at the end still doesn't get Matthew's money, which is 11.63.
So it's a small mini-win for Dubas: More years & less money & Marner doesnt sit out except meaningless idk 5-10 games or less. It will hurt only for 3 years, after that it will be an alright contract.
Same with Vasilevsky in Tampa 9.5 million will be bad for next 3 seasons, after that max cap will rise(new tv deal, etc...) so what is now 10 million $$$ will look so much better, when the guys like Hayes getting 10mill+ as well. Yes i know thats UFA but still...

So far it looks like Marner's camp winning and 10.75 mill @ 3 years around type of deal has the highest chance of being reality.
I would say:
3 years - 50%
5 years - 10%
6 years - 30%
Rest 10% or less( like 9.5 mill @ 1 year)

Even though EW Contract Projections: 2019 spreadsheet says:
3 years chance = 2.2%
5 years chance = 20.8% - i would be schocked if its 5 years
6 years chance = 24.4%
8 years chance = 42.6% - this seems like currently under 1%

From these offers and projections you can clearly see, close to 0% chance of any amount of years contract under 10.2 million $$$.
Seems like Dubas is really giving him respectable offers...(not lowballing like Carolina did with Aho like around 6 million $ = offer sheet accepted)
So i'm truly surprised that Marner's agent rejected the 10 mill @ 3 years, so its must be over 10.5 mill what his agent willing to accept at 3-6 years. Can't wait to see the next rejected offer... grimace

If Dubas pulls off anything under 10 million $$$ = Miracle


Good luck! Toronto Maple Leafs
 
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